Some Awards Banter

As much as I was looking forward to the end of the regular season this year I have to admit, I've actually kinda missed being able to check up on the Twins everyday. I don't miss the feeling of loss after loss, but I miss the day-to-day. Fortunately, this year's MLB playoffs have been REALLY good and have been filled with major market schadenfreude which has been medicine for my weary baseball soul. I'm very pleased with the 4 teams that remain and I was really happy for Milwaukee fans who saw their baseball team snatch a Game 5 victory from the clutches of defeat in winning their first playoff series since 1982. I was born in 1983 so to think that in my entire lifetime, the Brew Crew hadn't won a playoff series...wow, this is big. I really like their team too, the combination of power and hustle, scrap and confidence,...and their swagger is undeniable. I like their rotation, I like their bullpen and if they go on to win the World Series, I think I might even have a smile on my face.

Anyway, I didn't put my pen to paper to write about the post-season, plenty of others are writing much more meaningful pieces. The purpose of my piece today is more obligation, but calling it 'obligation' gives it the wrong connotation. As a part of the Baseball Bloggers Alliance (BBA) we are asked to cast our votes every year for various awards and then those votes are compiled amongst all the blogs in the network and the network as a whole comes out with it's winners. This has already been done for manager of the year (Connie Mack Award) which you can check out here. For my part, I'd like to take on a couple of Awards, notable the "Walter Johnson" Award (honoring the best SPs) and the "Stan Musial" (honoring the MVPs). Since we are a Minnesota Twins blog, we vote for the American League winners of these awards.

Walter Johnson Award - Best Starting Pitcher (AL)

The Walter Johnson Award uses a 5-3-1 point system so we are supposed to vote for our 1st, 2nd and 3rd place vote getters which makes this whole process a little more interesting if you ask me.

1st Place: Justin Verlander (5 points)
I've trolled my Yankee followers on Twitter a little bit lately suggesting that Verlander was a 'no doubt' winner of this Award despite the fantastic, but under appreciated season that Yankee ace CC Sabathia had. That said, Verlander had a super-human season and I don't see you could give the award to anyone else. First, the vitals:

24 Wins (not really important, but hey, it's a lot of wins for a single-season)
2.40 ERA - Lead the AL
0.920 WHIP - Lead the Majors
2.99 FIP - 4nd in the AL
3.12 xFIP - 2nd in the AL
251.0 IP - Lead the Majors
250 Ks - Lead the Majors

4.39 K/BB ratio - 2nd in the AL
2.84 SIERA - Lead the AL
5.14 WPA - Lead the Majors
7.0 WAR - 2nd in the AL

The argument for Verlander is pretty convincing. He helped his team run away with the AL Central crown, he was dominant from start to finish, and he lead the Majors in a few of the more important measures of pitching success.

2nd Place: CC Sabathia (3 points)
I already alluded to it earlier but this should come as no surprise. CC actually was worth 7.1 WAR this season which was. 0.1 more than Verlander and also out-pitched Verlander in FIP (2.88) and xFIP (3.02). Pro-CC people will argue that it should be taken into consideration that CC also pitches in the AL East and is therefore facing tougher opponents on a more regular basis. I would say that's a legitimate point, but who a pitcher faces is nothing that the pitcher can determine so what division a given pitcher is in cannot be used as criteria for an award. CCs reward for a great season will be either a) 5 more seasons at $23M per in New York or b) a HUGE free-agent deal somewhere else.

3rd Place: James Shields (1 point)
I'm going out on a limb a little for my 3rd place selection. What I am most impressed with about Shields season was all of the complete games...11 of them to be precise, which led all of Major League Baseball. For a guy who had never been a dominant pitcher, Shields had a breakout year of sorts winning a career-high 16 games with career bests in ERA (2.82), IP (249.1), WHIP (1.04), Ks (225), and WAR (4.9). I will say that Shields had an awfully "lucky" season considering his BABIP was .258 while his career average for that category sits at (.299). That will occasionally happen with ground-ball heavy pitchers though and for this season, it no-doubt worked in Shields' favor.


Stan Musial Award - AL MVP

Here is my list of my top 10 with a general discussion at the end.


1. Curtis Granderson (13 points)
2. Jacoby Ellsbury (9 points)
3. Miguel Cabrera (8 points)
4. Ian Kinsler (7 points)
5. Dustin Pedroia (6 points)
6. Jose Bautista (5 points)
7. Justin Verlander (4 points)
8. CC Sabathia (3 points)
9. Alex Gordon (2 points)
10. Ben Zobrist (1 point)

If I'm going strictly off of WAR (Wins Above Replacement) values, then Ellsbury wins this award running away...but in considering "valuable-ness", Granderson gets my nod. The Red Sox were/are absolutely loaded with talent. Among the WAR leaders, the Red Sox have 3 of the top 9 players (Ellsbury, Pedroia, A. Gonzalez). The Yankees are also loaded with talent, but not to that degree having only 2 players in the top 13 (Granderson & Cano). In a year in which A-Rod was not himself and Teixeira was streaky, Granderson was the constant producer setting career highs in Runs, RBIs, HRs, BBs and OPS all while committing only 3 errors in the field all year next to a dozen highlight-reel catches. Granderson's 7.0 WAR pales in comparison to Ellsbury's 9.4, but to me Granderson was more valuable in the sense that his team really needed his production to win.

I had a couple pitchers on my MVP ballot, though to be clear I would not have put them anywhere near the top. I've talked about this before (mostly on Twitter) but I feel that the MVP award name should be changed to Best Offensive Player. Keep the Cy Young Award as "the best pitcher" and make MVP the best hitter award. "Value" is to subjective and I don't think great offensive seasons should be ignored, much like Alex Gordon's was, simply because the player is stuck on a bad team. In the same way that the team a given pitcher plays for should not factor into the discussion for the Cy Young Award, the team a hitter plays for and whether or not that team makes the playoffs should not factor into their selection as the best hitter.

Anyway, that's enough pontificating for now. I hope to post more regularly here this off-season. My job has changed a bit in the sense that I have less and less time to blog about the Twins, but I am going to try my hardest to keep the discussion going here. It should be an exciting off-season!

Realignment is Ridiculous

I was listening to Mike & Mike on ESPN radio this morning on my drive into work and they were talking about realignment in baseball and my blood started to boil. Greeny was floating his "idea" out there and it goes something like this:

* Get rid of divisions and instead have two 15-team leagues
* Every team in League A plays every team from League B for one 3 game series every year
* The rest of a team's games are spread out evenly against teams in their own league
* Have a rolling inter-league schedule to compensate for the odd number of teams in each league

His reason for realignment? "Fairness and equality." I'm sorry, but since when is "fairness" and "equality" the standard in professional sports?? And since when do we entertain the idea of altering divisions and leagues for the sake of a couple of teams who play in the AL East (Orioles & Blue Jays)?? This is ridiculous. First of all, baseball is INHERENTLY "unfair" because of the absence of a salary cap. Every individual ball club determines how much they want to spend on payroll. Realignment would only be a band-aid solution...and a bad one at that. Second, this isn't rec. league t-ball. This is pro sports, a land where fairness and equality don't matter. If you're a GM/Team President and you want your team to be better, bring in better scouts, pursue the bigger name free-agents, find a way to put butts in the seats; that is the name of the game afterall.

The Steinbrenners don't have more money than the other owners (ok, maybe they do, but all of the owners in baseball are multi-millionaires, billionaires, whatever), they simply choose to funnel more of their money into their baseball team and it pays off with winning ball clubs and world championships. If a team wants to go about it in a cheaper manner, they have the option of adopting a strategy similar to what the Tampa Bay Rays employ...advanced stats consultants, finding cutting edge methods to identify young talent, making savvy moves to bring in talent via free-agency and trades, etc. Just because the Orioles and Jays are stuck in a division that includes the Yankees and Red Sox doesn't mean we should try and fix it by realigning both leagues.

There really aren't many excuses for a low-payroll team in MLB. 1) You've got revenue-sharing in which large-market/high-payroll teams like the Yankees, Red Sox, Phillies, etc make payments to smaller market ball clubs. 2) The MLB draft favors teams who perform poorly and if you've got a team like the Royals who are near the bottom of the league every year, you can start to accumulate talent through the draft and build a ball club cheaply that way (as they have done). 3) Almost every team in baseball has some sort of TV deal these days which is another way to generate a lot of revenue. Blah, blah, blah.

I get tired of this "fairness" and "equality" BS. I remember when I was kid playing rec. league t-ball and my team would clearly lay a whupping on the other team and at the end of the game the coaches would say it was a "tie." I was beside myself, even at 6-years-old. In life as in baseball there are winners and losers...why our society feels the need the deny this reality is beyond me. If the Orioles and Jays want to compete in the AL East, I suggest they find creative ways to do so, either that or spend more money. It really is that simple. I don't care if it isn't fair, I don't care if it's not equal and I'm 100% against re-arranging the divisions in baseball so that teams like them have a better shot at making the playoffs.

/steps off soapbox
//resumes day

Exaggerating a Win

Getty Images

WE BEAT THE YANKEES...AT YANKEE STADIUM!! Who cares if we overblow it?? Yeah, yeah, it's sad that a regular season win, within the first two weeks of the season mind you, against the Yankees feels like winning a playoff game. Who cares? For now I'm basking in the glory of a come-from-behind, morale-boosting, early-season win. Here's a couple of notes on the game and the series so far:

• In the first two innings of games against the Twins this year, the Yankees have scored 8 runs on the strength of 3 HRs. In innings 3 through 9, they've scored zero runs. This is both encouraging and discouraging. Nice to see both Baker & Duensing settle in after rough starts though.
• After committing a couple of errors in the three-game series with the Blue Jays, Tsuyoshi Nishioka has seemingly settled in and has had a great series defensively against the Yankees helping to turn 4 double-plays in two games and handling the routine grounders with ease. At the plate last night he had a key hit in the 10th inning after failing to lay down a bunt.
• In the 8th inning rally against Soriano, the Twins had a number of patient at-bats, drawing three walks with every hitter seeming to work a deep count. That kind of a patience is very encouraging, especially given the amount of quick outs the Twins have had so far this season.
• Delmon Young hit the luckiest 2-out, 3-run double you will ever see. First, the only reason Mauer scored from 1st is because Delmon had worked the count to 3-2 with 2-out. Second, the ball was essentially a pop-up...that happened to find about a 10 sq. ft. area of the field that no one could get to. I'm not complaining, but I'll call it like I see it.
• Michael Cuddyer looked pretty terrible last night, no way around that really.
• Matt Capps deserves as much credit for the win as Young does, pitching through the heart of the Yankee lineup (Swish, Tex, A-Rod, Cano, Posada, Martin) in the 8th and 9th innings, retiring them 6-up, 6-down. He made fairly light work for Nathan by getting through those guys.
• As Gleeman pointed out today, Nathan's velocity is still lacking, but he was effective enough in the 10th inning of last night's game. I don't think my heart could have taken it if Nathan had eeked out another save.
• With a near-miracle win last night, the Twins have a solid shot at taking at least 2 of 4 in New York with Carl Pavano and Francisco Liriano on the mound for the next two games. That would be about as much as I could have hoped for coming in.

Hopefully the team didn't go out and celebrate too much last night. This was a great early-season win and so far I've been impressed with the team in the first two games of this series, they've gotten down early but have fought back against a tough team. It's amazing how much one game can change your perspective.

How Does the Twins Starting Rotation Stack Up?

I was reading another excellent piece by Nick Nelson, a summary of the Twins Starting Pitchers, and then I read the comments...I should probably stop reading comments in blogs, but I saw them and now I can't help myself. This was comment...

"You ask, "Can we compete without top-of-the line pitching?"
The answer is: Within our mediocre division, yes; with the rest of the league, no. Same answer for the past 10 years or so."

The comment's owner is Ed Bast, a faithful commenter on many blogs (which we all appreciate!) and while there is nothing that bothers me about that comment, I just happen to disagree and wahlah, this post was born...so for that Ed, I thank you.

Nowhere in Nick's article did he suggest that the Twins' starting pitching was anything less than "top-of-the-line", in fact he called it the club's "strongest and deepest position." And I agree with that, their starting pitching, particularly the depth they have at the position, is easily their greatest strength. Like I said though, the comment got me thinking and so I want to compare the Twins 5 starters with other top rotations in the American League, just to see how they stack up. For argument's sake, I'm going to use each pitcher's 2010 stats, and for the Twins, I'll rank 1-5 as I see them actually slotted in terms of talent, not in the order Gardenhire elected each one this Spring. For review:

Francisco Liriano (ace)

191.2 IP     (14-10)     3.62/2.66 ERA/FIP     1.26 WHIP     201/58 K/BB

Carl Pavano

221.0 IP     (17-10)     3.75/4.02 ERA/FIP     1.19 WHIP     117/37 K/BB

Scott Baker

170.1 IP     (12-9)     4.49/3.96 ERA/FIP     1.34 WHIP     148/43 K/BB

Brian Duensing

130.2 IP     (10-3)     2.62/3.85 ERA/FIP     1.20 WHIP     78/35 K/BB

Nick Blackburn

161.0 IP     (10-12)     5.42/5.07 ERA/FIP     1.45 WHIP     68/40 K/BB

I've been hearing the most buzz about the Red Sox, so let's start there.

Jon Lester (ace)

208.0 IP     (19-9)     3.25/3.13 ERA/FIP     1.20 WHIP     225/83 K/BB

Clay Buchholz

173.2 IP     (17-7)     2.33/3.61 ERA/FIP     1.20 WHIP     120/67 K/BB

Josh Beckett

127.2 IP     (6-6)     5.75/4.54 ERA/FIP     1.54 WHIP     116/45 K/BB

John Lackey

215.0 IP     (14-11)     4.40/3.85 ERA/FIP     1.42 WHIP     156/72 K/BB

Daisuke Matsuzaka

153.2 IP     (9-6)     4.69/4.05 ERA/FIP     1.37 WHIP     133/74 K/BB

Like the Twins with Liriano and Pavano, the Red Sox had a formidable 1-2 punch last year with Lester and Buchholz. You can count on a healthy Beckett having a better 2011, but Lackey and Daisuke are no more of a "sure thing" than Duensing and Blackburn are. Of all of the other AL teams expected to compete this year, the Red Sox starting rotation appears to be the best of the bunch, but on paper, they aren't that much better than the Twins starting 5, especially if Baker has a 2011 campaign that more closely resembles his 2008 and 2008 seasons and Buchholz experiences some regression this year as his stats indicate he might. Next up, the White Sox.

John Danks (ace)

213.0 IP     (15-11)     3.72/3.70 ERA/FIP     1.33 WHIP     162/70 K/BB

Gavin Floyd

187.1 IP     (10-13)     4.08/3.46 ERA/FIP     1.37 WHIP     151/58 K/BB

Edwin Jackson

209.1 IP     (10-12)     4.47/3.86 ERA/FIP     1.39 WHIP     181/78 K/BB

Jake Peavy

107.0 IP     (7-6)     4.63/4.01 ERA/FIP     1.23 WHIP     93/34 K/BB

Mark Buehrle

210.1 IP     (13-13)     4.28/3.90 ERA/FIP     1.40 WHIP     99/49 K/BB

The White Sox will, in my opinion, once again be the Twins toughest competition for the AL Central crown. Their collective ERA/FIP splits suggest that they were quite an unlucky bunch last year, but when you see those inflated WHIPs, it's not that hard to see why. If Gavin Floyd can throw well in the early part of the year, and Jake Peavy makes a strong comeback from back-to-back injury-plagued seasons...watch out. Otherwise this team will struggle to keep up in the AL Central once again because their options to replace these 5 aren't very good. Next up, the Yankees.

CC Sabathia (ace)

237.2 IP     (21-7)     3.18/3.54 ERA/FIP     1.19 WHIP     197/74 K/BB

A.J. Burnett

186.2 IP     (10-15)     5.26/4.83 ERA/FIP     1.51 WHIP     145/78 K/BB

Phil Hughes

176.1 IP     (18-8)     4.19/4.25 ERA/FIP     1.25 WHIP     146/58 K/BB

Ivan Nova

42.0 IP     (1-2)     4.50/4.36 ERA/FIP     1.45 WHIP     26/17 K/BB
Freddy Garcia

157.0 IP     (12-6)     4.64/4.77 ERA/FIP     1.38 WHIP     89/45 K/BB

Burnett had a terrible year, which leads me to believe we'll see a bit of a bounce back from him, though he is 34, so last year might just had been the beginning of the end. CC, what can you say, the guy is superhuman. Phil Hughes gives the Yankees a shot to contend, without a 3rd starter like him, they'd have no chance. Nova and Garcia will be the wild-cards, Nova's minor league track doesn't suggest that he's going to light the world on fire, and in 7 starts last year (10 appearances overall), I think he showed what kind of Major League pitcher he will be. Honestly, I like the Twins top 3 up against the Yankees top 3...remember folks, it wasn't really the starting pitching that has lost games for the Twins against the Yankees in the playoffs...it's been their inability to put any meaningful offense together. We'll get to see the two teams match up right out of the gate this year as the Twins second series of the season is a 3-game series in New York. Onto the next team, the Rays.

David Price (ace)

208.2 IP     (19-6)     2.72/3.42 ERA/FIP     1.19 WHIP     188/79 K/BB

James Shields

203.1 IP     (13-15)     5.18/4.24 ERA/FIP     1.46 WHIP     187/51 K/BB

Jeremy Hellickson

36.1 IP     (4-0)     3.47/3.88 ERA/FIP     1.10 WHIP     33/8 K/BB

Wade Davis 

168.0 IP     (12-10)     4.07/4.79 ERA/FIP     1.35 WHIP     113/62 K/BB

Jeff Niemann

174.1 IP     (12-8)     4.39/4.61 ERA/FIP     1.26 WHIP     131/61 K/BB

Whether the Rays are a contender in the AL East this year will depend almost solely on their rotation. Price looks like a stud, Hellickson really impressed people last year in 4 starts, and if Shields bounces back from a pretty unlucky year (.341 BABIP), they could have quite a rotation. Losing Carl Crawford on offense is going to hurt so the Rays will be relying heavily on their rotation to give them innings and keep them in games. One team left, the Oakland A's.

Brett Anderson (ace?)

112.1 IP     (7-6)     2.80/3.21 ERA/FIP     1.19 WHIP     75/22 K/BB

Trevor Cahill

196.2 IP     (18-8)     2.97/4.19 ERA/FIP     1.11 WHIP     118/63 K/BB

Gio Gonzalez

200.2 IP     (15-9)     3.23/3.78 ERA/FIP     1.31 WHIP     171/92 K/BB

Dallas Braden

192.2 IP     (11-14)     3.50/3.80 ERA/FIP     1.16 WHIP     113/43 K/BB

Brandon McCarthy (2009 numbers, spent the year in Triple-A in 2010)

97.1 IP     (7-4)     4.62/4.70 ERA/FIP     1.36 WHIP     65/36 K/BB

On paper, this looks like a pretty nice starting 5. The only problem is injury. Both Gonzalez and Anderson have had injury problems within the past two years and 4 out of the 5 guys are pretty young. Like the Rays, the Athletics success this year will depend on this group staying healthy and pitching well, something this group certainly has the potential to do.

So that's a lot of numbers and those are all last year's numbers and things could change drastically this year due to injury or other factors and blah, blah, blah. The point of this post was to suggest that the Twins Starting Rotation is not that much different than most of the other top rotations in the American League. Most of the rotations, even the great ones, have weaker pieces in the 4 and 5 slots. Most of them have a dominant "ace" type guy, so do the Twins in Liriano. Most of them rotations have a horse, a guy who can pitch 200+ innings with above average results, so do the Twins in Pavano (fingers crossed he stays healthy). If Scott Baker can pitch like he did in '08 and '09, I would put him up against any of the #3s I just listed above. There's a lot of "ifs" with the Twins, but these 'ifs' aren't great stretches of the imagination, they are things that could easily come true.

Now if we can just get that offense to come alive in the playoffs...that would really help turn the Twins' post-season fortunes around.

George Steinbrenner (1930-2010)

Think what you may of George Steinbrenner as a person, but in the end, he was a great owner who turned his love of the Yankees into World Championship after World Championship and restored the 'Yankee Swagger' to that franchise. Since 1973, Steinbrenner was the owner of the Yankees and during that time, they won 11 AL Championships and 7 World Series titles and that is all that really needs to be said. I believe that his legacy will live on through his sons and through Brian Cashman as the Yankees look to be contenders for years to come. I think it's fitting, in some ways, that as the current crop of Yankee legends (Jeter, Rivera, A-Rod to an extent) approach the twilight of their careers, the corporate face of the Yankees will change as well. R.I.P. George Steinbrenner, thanks for making me jealous for the past 15 years.

2010 Year in Preview: New York Yankees

It's odd.  I'm ready for baseball to come back.  I miss it, and I'm really looking forward to 2010.  But it's bittersweet, in a way.  It's good to be on top, it's good to be the champs, it's good to know that we are the best and that every team, especially Boston, has to deal with that reality for an entire year.  I'm looking forward to 2010, but 2009 left the sweetest taste in my mouth and I'm not yet ready to let go.   


2009 Season: 





Oh my.  It doesn't get much better than that.  I love the ARod taunting before the pitch, the lull at 0:09 and the way all the hands in the joint go up in the air as mayhem descends on the stadium.  I think I should watch it again, maybe from a different angle.










New York Yankees.  103-59.  AL East Champs.  Swept the Twins in the ALDS.  Defeated the Angels 4-2 in the ALCS.  Defeated the Phillies 4-2 in the World Series to win their 27th World Series title.


Key Departures: 
LF Johnny Damon departed after a long, soap-operatic tango with the Yankees and signed with the Tigers.  DH Hideki Matsui signed with the Angels.  C Jose Molina signed with the Blue Jays.  Phil Coke, LHP and Austin Jackson, CF were traded to the Tigers and RHP Ian Kennedy was traded to the Diamondbacks in the Curtis Granderson deal. Traded CF Melky Cabrera, RHP Arodys Vizcaino and LHP Mike Dunn to the Braves in the Javier Vazquez deal. 


Key Additions: 
Signed 1B/DH Nick Johnson to a 1 year, $5.5M deal with a mutual option for 2011 for $5.5M, acquired CF Curtis Granderson in a trade with the Tigers and Diamonbacks, acquired RHP Javier Vazquez in a trade with the Braves.  

Talent En Route: 
In a way, the discussion of the Yankees' talent en route begins and ends with Jesus Montero.  Montero is a consensus Top 10 Prospect in all of baseball, with some lists placing him as high as 3rd or 4th.  We followed Montero's season all last year here on The Bat Shatters, but let's recap for a moment, shall we?


Montero is a 6'4", 225 lb, 20 year old catcher from Venezuela.  As an 18 year old in Low-A Charleston, Montero hit .326/.376/.491, clubbing 17 home runs and 34 doubles in 569 plate appearances.  By any and all standards, this is a stunning debut.  Montero showed the ability to hit for average, get on base, and hit for power at an extremely young age. 


The following year, Montero began the year in High-A Tampa, and in 198 plate appearances hit 8 home runs and 15 doubles, posting a line of .356/.406/.583.  He was then promoted to Double-A Trenton midseason, and showed that he was able to punish better pitching at a similar rate, hitting 9 home runs and 10 doubles in 181 PAs, good for a line of .317/.370/.539.  His season was ended prematurely when he broke his finger when he was hit by a pitch. 


There aren't enough superlatives for Montero's hitting ability.  He is showing an extraordinary ability to dominate minor league pitching at a very young age and might be the best pure hitting prospect in all of baseball.  Scouts have compared him to Miguel Cabrera and Frank Thomas.  The latter comparison seems particularly fitting when you see how both hit off their front foot.


The knock on Montero, and this has been discussed ad nauseum, is that scouts doubt his ability to stick behind the plate long-term.  He isn't particularly quick to release his throws, his blocking ability is average at best, and he's gigantic.  But, as many have said, his bat is so good that it doesn't matter where you put him on the diamond.  I have to imagine that if he showed at least average defensive ability he would be a contender for the best prospect in baseball.


Montero is slated to begin the year at Triple-A Scranton.  The plan is for him to get a full year of work in at catcher, and the soonest Yankees' fans will probably see him is in September when rosters expand.  I expect Montero to make the team out of Spring Training in 2011.  There's no clear open position for him, since Posada will still be under contract, but I expect the Yankees to have him split time between C and DH.  His bat is so good, it doesn't really matter where he plays.

2011 Free Agency and Salary Outlook 
I already covered the offseason potential scenarios over at The Yankee U a few weeks ago, so I'm going to quote myself liberally here. 

"Thanks to the invaluable tool at Cot’s Baseball Contracts, we see that New York already has $144M committed to the 2011 payroll. When you add my proposed $20M to Jeter and $15M to Rivera, and the payroll is already at $179M. From there, you have to factor in raises for Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes, who will become eligible for arbitration for the first time. Using Liriano as a comparison, it won’t be unexpected to see them both pull in $1.5M apiece. This bumps the payroll up to $182M, and I’m going to round it up to $183M to cover raises for Boone Logan, if he’s still around, and for the pre-arb guys like DRob, Aceves and others.  

With a budget of $183M, the Yankees will have, at the most, $17-27M to spend."

The most obvious holes in the 2011 roster are starting pitching and LF. Since I penned my post at The Yankee U, the Yankees' FO put Joba in the bullpen for 2010 and put Hughes in the rotation.  The Twins also signed Joe Mauer to an 8 year, 180M deal and there was much rejoicing.  Thus, I'm going to rework my Scenarios a bit differently this time, focusing on Andy Pettitte.   


If Andy Pettitte retires...
If Pettitte retires, then the Yankees have three starters under contract for 2011: Sabathia, Burnett and Hughes.  If they choose to move Joba back to the rotation, they it would be most logical to assume that they would pursue Lee or Vazquez.  If they leave Joba in the pen, then they might be forced to go with Vazquez and a bargain-bin starter, or sign Lee and use Zach McAllister in the fifth spot. 


If Andy Pettitte returns...
If Pettitte returns on a deal similar to this year's contract (1 yr, 11M), then the Yankees have four starters under contract for 2011: Sabathia,  Burnett, Hughes and Pettitte, and a payroll of around $194M.  In this scenario, they could try to pursue Cliff Lee and max out their payroll.  This would leave them unable to pursue Crawford.  They could also shift Chamberlain back to the rotation for the fifth spot, leaving them with more than enough money to pursue Crawford. 


In all of these scenarios, several things are apparent.  Firstly, the Yankees do not seem likely to sign both Lee and Crawford.  Secondly, having Chamberlain in the rotation affords them far more roster flexibility. Keeping him in the pen is going to mean more money committed to the rotation.  Finally, the Yankees 2011 payroll is already extremely high.  Sadly, I think that Joba will be in the bullpen for the long haul and that the Yankees will need two more starters for 2011.  I'm a Cliff Lee fan, so I'd really love to see them resign Pettitte and ink Lee to a deal.  Having Lee would give the Yankees a ridiculous rotation (Sabathia-Lee-Burnett-Pettitte-Hughes), and it would give them a hedge against the risk of Sabathia exercising his opt-out clause and leaving for some place like San Francisco or Anaheim.  


The Future of the Yankees
The immediate future of the Yankees is very good.  They will field a team that is, on paper, superior to last year's World Series Champion.  They have an extraordinary prospect in Jesus Montero, and several very good prospects in Zach McAllister and Austin Romine. They have a savvy GM who is able to make smart moves free from sentimentality or pressure from ownership.  They have an exceptional pitching staff and some of the best players in the game. The risks with the Yankees in 2010 and beyond is that age and injuries will catch up with them, and that their exorbitant salary commitments in the next five years will prove burdensome.  But for now, Yankee haters everywhere need to fear the rise of another New York Yankee dynasty.  


In the words of Leon from Curb Your Enthusiasm, "Let's do it, baby!"

Marshall's Mechanics

Back in December, I published a piece called "How not to throw a baseball", which concerned Yankees' prospect Brett Marshall.  Marshall had TJ surgery last year, and I noted that a gif of him throwing in high school displayed awful mechanics.  Chief amongst my concerns was that Marshall didn't have his forearm vertical at footstrike. This means that when a pitcher's lead foot plants, his arm is supposed to be cocked and vertical, pointing up.  If it is "late", and is horizontal or even pointing down (a la BJ Ryan and Yankees RHP David Robertson, sadly), then you place stress on the elbow ligaments and seemingly increase your risk for rupturing those ligaments and needing Tommy John surgery.  For reference, here is the gif again:

 

Yankees blog NoMaas published an interview with Brett Marshall on Thursday.  Check out this exchange midway through the interview:

GW: Are you planning on changing your mechanics at all due to the injury?
BM: I’ve been working on my mechanics since pitching instructs, since day one basically. I think [my mechanics] hurt me from throwing so much in high school. I played every position there was and never really gave my arm a break. I just had bad mechanics back then. I look at them now and they were not good at all. I’d mainly leave my arm behind and have to catch it up which puts a lot of stress on the elbow.

Emphasis mine.  Marshall is spot-on.  This was exactly my concern, and it is good to see that Marshall will attempt to rectify the problem upon his return.  I'd be interested to know whether this was something that Marshall realized on his own or had explained to him by Yankee staff.  I'm guessing it is the latter, which is encouraging.  Of course, it will remain to be seen if Marshall can recover from TJ, and if his revised mechanics will mean a loss of effectiveness.  One always has to wonder if the risky mechanics a pitcher employs are the reason that the pitcher is able to garner the velocity he needs to be successful, and whether he will still be able to pitch at the same level if he alters them. 

If you have a chance, make sure to check out the interview.  It's an interesting read, especially the parts in which he discusses how the Yankees modified his repetoire. 

Top 10 MLB Salaries for 2009

I read an article this morning over at MLBTradeRumors.com that Mark Mulder was retiring and saw that they casually mentioned that he had made $33M over the course of his career. Anyway, I got to thinking, "I wonder what the top 10 MLB baseball salaries were for 2009?" What I found was interesting, the Top 5 are usual suspects, but there are some surprises towards the bottom.

1.) A-Rod - $33M
No big surprise here, despite missing a month of last season, I'd say A-Rod earned his keep propelling the Yankees to their 27th World Championship.

2.) Manny Ramirez - $24M
OVER-RATED. (Clap, Clap, Clap Clap Clap) OVER-RATED.

3.) Derek Jeter - $21.6M
It will be interesting to see what kind of money Jeter gets when he's a free-agent next year.

4.) Mark Teixeira - $20.6M
All I have to say is, "damn, the Yankee payroll is massive." They have 3 of the top 4 highest paid baseball players. Teixeira deserves this salary, he may walk around like he has a stick up his ass but the dude can play.

5.) Carlos Beltran - $19.2M
Beltran missed 2 1/2 months of last season, now comes news that he had surgery again and will miss the first part of this coming season. When he's healthy, he's good, but lately he's been hurt way too much.

6.) Carlos Lee - $19M
Lee is one of the most underrated players in MLB in my opinion. His 162 game average is 93R, 30HRs, 109RBIs and a .291/.344/.503 triple-slash. If he was playing anywhere other than Houston, he'd be a superstar.

7.) Magglio Ordonez - $19M
Like I said, there are surprises. I know Mags used to be good and was rewarded with a lengthy contract which he is now towards the end of...but $19M for what he is now?? The Tigers have to be kicking themselves.

8.) Johan Santana - $18.9M
It's yet to be seen how elbow surgery will affect Santana, but I'm guessing he's still got plenty left and will be strong again this year. Oh, and worth $18.9M for sure.

9.) Carlos Zambrano - $18.75M
Is there a more over-paid player in MLB? If reports are true that Zambrano has indeed lost some weight, he may be a new man this year, but the old Zambrano is wildly inconsistent and generally a hot-head, and not worth $18M a year.

10.) Barry Zito - $18.5M
Ok, together now, let's all have a hearty laugh at the misfortune of the Giants. To fully appreciate the EPIC FAIL that this is, please go here: Barry Zito

Douchebag of the Day: Nick Swisher

Is there a bigger Tool in Major-League Baseball? Just look at this: here, here, and here. The guy can't seem to decide if he wants to look like the monkey-men from the Geico commercials, A.J. Pierzynski, or a 15-year-old kid.

Oh, and have you ever heard this guy speak? I'll save you the trouble, here's a typical interview with Swisher: "Hey everyone, come see how good I look, come see how awesome I am." To display his brain-power, Swished dropped this gem on an unsuspecting reporter back in his days with Oakland. He said, "Everyone knows an ant, can't, move a rubber tree plant." Don't think about that quote, move on to the next sentence because if you think about it, your brain might literally explode.

Like most of the players I hate, my hatred of Swisher is essentially baseless. A big part of it lies in the fact that he spent a year with the White Sox and I had to listen to his stupid, narcissistic pre-game interviews. Another part of it is that he pretends that he's good at baseball. Look at his career hitting line:

.245 Batting Average
639 Hits
665 Strikeouts (yes, he has struck out more times than he's gotten a hit)
133HRs
437 Rs
406 RBIs
7SBs out of 15 attempts
.818 OPS
Career Postseason Batting Average of .155 in 71 ABs.

**Quick sidenote: Tony Gwynn had 3 times as many plate appearances in his career as Swisher has so far, and he only struck out a total of 439 times.

Basically, Swisher is a mediocre version of Adam Dunn, a guy who has some pop in his bat and that's about it. Swisher is a decent fielder with a career .982 fielding percentage, but seriously, the .245 career average is brutal. How do you stay in the lineup when you get a hit less than 25% of the time and strikeout as much as he has?? I would understand his "look at me" personality if he was a good player, but in reality, he's not. He's had his moments of greatest, most of them coming this past year with the Yankees, but I just don't like the guy.

Stay tuned for more articles in the future. Once (sic) recovers from his championship bender, he's promised a bevy of hard-hitting content.

The Yankee Championship: 2 Conclusions

A hearty congratulations to the Yankees, to my partner in crime on this blog, (sic), and to Major League Baseball on what was another fantastic season. It all culminated last night with the Yankees winning it all, but I've got a few thoughts from common-man baseball fan.

First off, Matsui for MVP? Really. The guy played 3 games (half) of the series. Sure his monster game last night was a big part of helping the Yankees clinch, but what about the other 3 games they had to win to get to Game 6? What about A-Rod's monster post-season (finally), what about Rivera's dominance when it mattered the most? What about Damon's double-steal in Game 4 that essentially turned the tide of the entire series? What about CC's two dominant games? Hell, what about Cliff Lee's post-season performance and WS performance? Lee had a legitimate shot to become only the 2nd player on a losing WS team to win the WS MVP.

Anyway, that's really not the point of this post. The point is that based on last night and the last 15 years of baseball, I have two conclusions.

1) New York has more religious people than any other city in America.

If God does care about sports, then the Yankees have more people begging God for victory than any other team does. 27 Championships?!? I just want one! The Cubs, wow, if God cares about sports then he must be a White Sox fan....,or a Yankees fan...hmm.

or

2) God doesn't care about sports.

5 out of the last 10 World Series have been won by the team with the highest payroll in baseball (the Yankees) or the 2nd highest payroll (the RedSox). Of the past 10 winners, the Marlins (25th highest) were the only team to win the WS that wasn't in the top half of the payroll list. If it's true that God doesn't care about sports, a) the Twins don't stand a chance (22nd highest payroll) and b) you would expect the teams with the highest payrolls to win most of the time, which seems to be the case.
I'm not arguing that the Yankees bought their championship, because aside from the pieces they've added via free agency, they've also brought up plenty of home-grown talent like Joba, Cano, Jeter, etc. However, the payroll gap is real and it does make a difference.

I always love seeing the season come to an end, no matter who wins. It's the longest season of any of the major sports and a lot of times you can see the sheer relief in the faces of the players that it's finally over. I'm really happy for A-Rod, Teixeira, and CC on getting their first rings. I was thinking that Damon has to be the first player to win a WS Ring with both the Yankees and Red Sox in quite some time (if ever). Anyway, this blog will be cooking in the coming months with Hot Stove talk so stay tuned!

Future HOFer? Bobby Abreu

I've written other articles on this blog about people who I think might have hall-of-fame potential, but who are often left out of the conversation. Bobby Abreu is one of those players who has put together solid-season after solid-season and who, in a few years, could have a statistical resume that merits Hall-of-Fame consideration. Let's take a look:

14 Major-League Seasons
1,951 Games
Career .299 Batting Average
2,111 Career Hits
1,270 Career Runs
1,187 Career RBI
256 HRs
348 SBs
Career .404 On-Base-Percentage
Career .896 OPS
2-time All-Star
Gold-Glove Winner (RF)

Those numbers leave him a little short, but he is 35 years old right now and just finished one of the better seasons of his career. He is rarely injured (since 1998, he has played 150 or more games in every season) and is about as steady of a performer as there is. Let's say, for the sake of argument, that Abreu plays another 3 seasons, which sounds reasonable. That would put him at 38 and give him 17 total MLB season, a very solid career. Using his career averages, that would leave him with the following stat line in 3 years.

~2,700 Career Hits
~1,600 Career Runs
~1,500 Career RBI
~320 Career HRs
~440 SBs

That's a very solid and borderline HOF competitive resume for a MLB player. With 3,000 hits and a .300 career average, Abreu would be a lock. With the way that he takes care of himself, it's not at all unreasonable to think he could play until he's 40 in which case he would challenge 3,000 hits. Baseball reference compares his stat line to the likes of George Brett, who is a HOFer. Time will tell, but if Abreu continues his high degree of consistency and stays healthy, he could very well play himself into the Hall of Fame.

UPDATE 11/5/2009:
Bobby Abreu re-signed with the Angels today for a reported $2M, 2-year deal.

Future HOFer? Johnny Damon

If you like what you're reading here, check out the rest of the blog: THE BAT SHATTERS

I'll be honest, I've never been a really big fan of Johnny Damon, mostly because I still have some residual hatred from his days with the Boston Red Sox. However, anyone who actually looks/looked like the caveman from the Geico commericals, deserves pity. I'm coming around on Damon now, mostly because I have him on my fantasy baseball team and he has been raking so far this year. I was trying to think of a player for another installment of Future HOFer? and I decided to check Damon's numbers out and was surprised by what I found. Given Damon's body of work so far and taking into account his age, he has a legit shot at reaching bonafide HOF numbers by the time he retires. Check out some of his vitals (provided, as always, by Baseball Reference):

2,025 Gs

.290 Career Avg.

.794 Career OPS

2,319 Hs

1,408 Rs

942 RBI

193 HRs

365 SBs

Given that Damon is 35 and still has a few seasons of solid production ahead of him (if he stays healthy, of course), it is likely that Damon could approach 3,000 hits, 1,600+ Rs and 400+ SBs. Those numbers would at least put him in consideration for the HOF. The area of Damon's resume that is lacking is clearly the RBI category and also the fact that Damon has only played on two All-Star teams during his career. Also, there is the fact that Damon has spent the ladder part of his career playing on Red Sox and Yankees alongside no-doubt HOFers like Derek Jeter, Manny Ramirez, A-Rod, Curt Schilling, etc and has been 'in the shadows' so to speak.

Moving to the Yankees was the best move Damon ever made, and shaving the God-awful (no pun intended there) manginess that used to be on his head was the best decision he ever made. I still find it hard to believe that Damon spent 7 season languishing away with the Royals and Athletics, I have to imagine that his overall stats would be a bit better had those years been spent with better teams. Anyway, I'm rambling, there's my case, I think Johnny has at least an outside shot at the HOF if he continues on his current pace for the next 3-5 seasons. Here's a more palatable picture of him.