Future HOFer?: Miguel Tejada

I'm in agreement with what Matt wrote the other day, I have almost zero interest in writing about the Twins. When I do I find that what I write is mostly negative (or sarcastic) and that's just not healthy. This blog originally started out covering Major League Baseball in general and I have no problem with it reverting back to that for the time being. It's one thing when the team you love has a run of bad luck because of injuries or the like. That stuff happens from time to time and, well, you re-group, get healthy and try again next year. It's another thing when the front-office of your favorite team makes poor decision after poor decision and hamstrings what should otherwise be a good team...especially when that front-office has a brand-new stadium and over $100M at their disposal. Anyway, the bottomline is that I don't want to write yet another negative post about this team, so I'm going to continue my series on potential future Hall of Famers, players who are towards the end of their career who have borderline Hall of Fame numbers. Today's subject is a somewhat controversial one: Miguel Tejada.

Miguel Odalis Tejada was signed as an amateur free-agent by the Oakland Athletics in 1993 at the age of 21. Tejada had been playing in the Dominican Republic and was showing signs of being a special talent there. He quickly made his way through the Minor Leagues, though surprisingly he was not a very good fielder at the time, committing 70 errors in his first 182 Minor League games. His bat was there though, including a decent degree of patience, sporting a 142:246 K:BB ratio through his first 3 MiL seasons. Tejada was called up to the Bigs in August of 1997 and finished out that season with the A's, hitting .202/.240/.333 in 104 PAs (23 games). In 1998 he didn't make the team out of Spring Training, but was called up at the end of May and played the rest of the season at SS for the A's, hitting .233/.298/.384 while committing 26 errors in 526 chances.

The 1999 season was when things really got going for Tejada. He didn't smack the cover off the baseball or anything, but he played the full season at shortstop and his numbers finally started to resemble his MiL numbers. In 159 games at shortstop, Tejada hit .251/.325/.427 with 21HRs, 93Rs and 84RBIs. He also improved on defense committing 21 errors in 784 chances, good for a .973 fielding percentage. From 1999 to 2006, Tejada compiled 34.9 WAR (4.36 average) and won the MVP award for the 2002 season. During that year he played in all 162 games, he hit .308/.354/.508, he hit 34HRs, drove in 131, compiled 204 hits and crossed home plate 108 times. To be honest, he didn't deserve the MVP award that year, and it wasn't even close. Alex Rodriguez should have won the MVP award as he hit .300/.392/.623 in 2002 and drove in 142 runs (10.0 WAR!!!) for the Rangers. That said, the Rangers finished last in the AL West while the Athletics won 103 games and captured the division crown. Even Nomar Garciaparra was more deserving of the MVP award for Red Sox team that fell just short of the playoffs...but hey, winning is everything and in this case, Tejada has the A's success in 2002 to thank for his MVP award.

Tejada hasn't exactly been the same since the 2006 season. Where he was once a perennial .800+ OPS guy, he hasn't hit that mark since the 2006 season and through 50 games this year with the Giants, his OPS sits at a Twins-esque .520. At 37 years old, Tejada is clearly in the twilight of his career, though others will chalk his decline up to being a former steroid user. In 2005 Tejada was part of a panel that testified before Congress about steroids in baseball, it was later found that he lied under oath and in 2009, he was charged with lying to Congress, he pled guilty, and he was sentenced to one-year of probation. So Tejada is a known steroid-user, which will likely be a nail in the coffin for his HOF chances...unless some people change their mind. From a statistical stand-point, Tejada has the numbers...though he is a fringe candidate which likely means he won't get in. I guess it will all depend on how the "Steroid Era" is viewed 5-7 years from now when Tejada is eligible for the Hall. I'll leave you with a highlight of his offensive achievements (through 5/31/11) and let you decide.

2,077 Games
8,893 Plate-Appearances
8,145 At-Bats
1,202 Runs Scored
456 Doubles
2,326 Hits
301 Homeruns
1,272 RBIs
Career .286/.336/.458 hitting line
Career .971 Fielding% between SS and 3B
6-time All-Star
1 MVP Award
2 Silver Slugger Awards
29th Among Active Players with 41.0 accumulated WAR

One interesting side-note about Tejada. He's been to the playoffs 4 different times, all with Oakland, and every single one of those teams lost in the first round

How Does the Twins Starting Rotation Stack Up?

I was reading another excellent piece by Nick Nelson, a summary of the Twins Starting Pitchers, and then I read the comments...I should probably stop reading comments in blogs, but I saw them and now I can't help myself. This was comment...

"You ask, "Can we compete without top-of-the line pitching?"
The answer is: Within our mediocre division, yes; with the rest of the league, no. Same answer for the past 10 years or so."

The comment's owner is Ed Bast, a faithful commenter on many blogs (which we all appreciate!) and while there is nothing that bothers me about that comment, I just happen to disagree and wahlah, this post was born...so for that Ed, I thank you.

Nowhere in Nick's article did he suggest that the Twins' starting pitching was anything less than "top-of-the-line", in fact he called it the club's "strongest and deepest position." And I agree with that, their starting pitching, particularly the depth they have at the position, is easily their greatest strength. Like I said though, the comment got me thinking and so I want to compare the Twins 5 starters with other top rotations in the American League, just to see how they stack up. For argument's sake, I'm going to use each pitcher's 2010 stats, and for the Twins, I'll rank 1-5 as I see them actually slotted in terms of talent, not in the order Gardenhire elected each one this Spring. For review:

Francisco Liriano (ace)

191.2 IP     (14-10)     3.62/2.66 ERA/FIP     1.26 WHIP     201/58 K/BB

Carl Pavano

221.0 IP     (17-10)     3.75/4.02 ERA/FIP     1.19 WHIP     117/37 K/BB

Scott Baker

170.1 IP     (12-9)     4.49/3.96 ERA/FIP     1.34 WHIP     148/43 K/BB

Brian Duensing

130.2 IP     (10-3)     2.62/3.85 ERA/FIP     1.20 WHIP     78/35 K/BB

Nick Blackburn

161.0 IP     (10-12)     5.42/5.07 ERA/FIP     1.45 WHIP     68/40 K/BB

I've been hearing the most buzz about the Red Sox, so let's start there.

Jon Lester (ace)

208.0 IP     (19-9)     3.25/3.13 ERA/FIP     1.20 WHIP     225/83 K/BB

Clay Buchholz

173.2 IP     (17-7)     2.33/3.61 ERA/FIP     1.20 WHIP     120/67 K/BB

Josh Beckett

127.2 IP     (6-6)     5.75/4.54 ERA/FIP     1.54 WHIP     116/45 K/BB

John Lackey

215.0 IP     (14-11)     4.40/3.85 ERA/FIP     1.42 WHIP     156/72 K/BB

Daisuke Matsuzaka

153.2 IP     (9-6)     4.69/4.05 ERA/FIP     1.37 WHIP     133/74 K/BB

Like the Twins with Liriano and Pavano, the Red Sox had a formidable 1-2 punch last year with Lester and Buchholz. You can count on a healthy Beckett having a better 2011, but Lackey and Daisuke are no more of a "sure thing" than Duensing and Blackburn are. Of all of the other AL teams expected to compete this year, the Red Sox starting rotation appears to be the best of the bunch, but on paper, they aren't that much better than the Twins starting 5, especially if Baker has a 2011 campaign that more closely resembles his 2008 and 2008 seasons and Buchholz experiences some regression this year as his stats indicate he might. Next up, the White Sox.

John Danks (ace)

213.0 IP     (15-11)     3.72/3.70 ERA/FIP     1.33 WHIP     162/70 K/BB

Gavin Floyd

187.1 IP     (10-13)     4.08/3.46 ERA/FIP     1.37 WHIP     151/58 K/BB

Edwin Jackson

209.1 IP     (10-12)     4.47/3.86 ERA/FIP     1.39 WHIP     181/78 K/BB

Jake Peavy

107.0 IP     (7-6)     4.63/4.01 ERA/FIP     1.23 WHIP     93/34 K/BB

Mark Buehrle

210.1 IP     (13-13)     4.28/3.90 ERA/FIP     1.40 WHIP     99/49 K/BB

The White Sox will, in my opinion, once again be the Twins toughest competition for the AL Central crown. Their collective ERA/FIP splits suggest that they were quite an unlucky bunch last year, but when you see those inflated WHIPs, it's not that hard to see why. If Gavin Floyd can throw well in the early part of the year, and Jake Peavy makes a strong comeback from back-to-back injury-plagued seasons...watch out. Otherwise this team will struggle to keep up in the AL Central once again because their options to replace these 5 aren't very good. Next up, the Yankees.

CC Sabathia (ace)

237.2 IP     (21-7)     3.18/3.54 ERA/FIP     1.19 WHIP     197/74 K/BB

A.J. Burnett

186.2 IP     (10-15)     5.26/4.83 ERA/FIP     1.51 WHIP     145/78 K/BB

Phil Hughes

176.1 IP     (18-8)     4.19/4.25 ERA/FIP     1.25 WHIP     146/58 K/BB

Ivan Nova

42.0 IP     (1-2)     4.50/4.36 ERA/FIP     1.45 WHIP     26/17 K/BB
Freddy Garcia

157.0 IP     (12-6)     4.64/4.77 ERA/FIP     1.38 WHIP     89/45 K/BB

Burnett had a terrible year, which leads me to believe we'll see a bit of a bounce back from him, though he is 34, so last year might just had been the beginning of the end. CC, what can you say, the guy is superhuman. Phil Hughes gives the Yankees a shot to contend, without a 3rd starter like him, they'd have no chance. Nova and Garcia will be the wild-cards, Nova's minor league track doesn't suggest that he's going to light the world on fire, and in 7 starts last year (10 appearances overall), I think he showed what kind of Major League pitcher he will be. Honestly, I like the Twins top 3 up against the Yankees top 3...remember folks, it wasn't really the starting pitching that has lost games for the Twins against the Yankees in the playoffs...it's been their inability to put any meaningful offense together. We'll get to see the two teams match up right out of the gate this year as the Twins second series of the season is a 3-game series in New York. Onto the next team, the Rays.

David Price (ace)

208.2 IP     (19-6)     2.72/3.42 ERA/FIP     1.19 WHIP     188/79 K/BB

James Shields

203.1 IP     (13-15)     5.18/4.24 ERA/FIP     1.46 WHIP     187/51 K/BB

Jeremy Hellickson

36.1 IP     (4-0)     3.47/3.88 ERA/FIP     1.10 WHIP     33/8 K/BB

Wade Davis 

168.0 IP     (12-10)     4.07/4.79 ERA/FIP     1.35 WHIP     113/62 K/BB

Jeff Niemann

174.1 IP     (12-8)     4.39/4.61 ERA/FIP     1.26 WHIP     131/61 K/BB

Whether the Rays are a contender in the AL East this year will depend almost solely on their rotation. Price looks like a stud, Hellickson really impressed people last year in 4 starts, and if Shields bounces back from a pretty unlucky year (.341 BABIP), they could have quite a rotation. Losing Carl Crawford on offense is going to hurt so the Rays will be relying heavily on their rotation to give them innings and keep them in games. One team left, the Oakland A's.

Brett Anderson (ace?)

112.1 IP     (7-6)     2.80/3.21 ERA/FIP     1.19 WHIP     75/22 K/BB

Trevor Cahill

196.2 IP     (18-8)     2.97/4.19 ERA/FIP     1.11 WHIP     118/63 K/BB

Gio Gonzalez

200.2 IP     (15-9)     3.23/3.78 ERA/FIP     1.31 WHIP     171/92 K/BB

Dallas Braden

192.2 IP     (11-14)     3.50/3.80 ERA/FIP     1.16 WHIP     113/43 K/BB

Brandon McCarthy (2009 numbers, spent the year in Triple-A in 2010)

97.1 IP     (7-4)     4.62/4.70 ERA/FIP     1.36 WHIP     65/36 K/BB

On paper, this looks like a pretty nice starting 5. The only problem is injury. Both Gonzalez and Anderson have had injury problems within the past two years and 4 out of the 5 guys are pretty young. Like the Rays, the Athletics success this year will depend on this group staying healthy and pitching well, something this group certainly has the potential to do.

So that's a lot of numbers and those are all last year's numbers and things could change drastically this year due to injury or other factors and blah, blah, blah. The point of this post was to suggest that the Twins Starting Rotation is not that much different than most of the other top rotations in the American League. Most of the rotations, even the great ones, have weaker pieces in the 4 and 5 slots. Most of them have a dominant "ace" type guy, so do the Twins in Liriano. Most of them rotations have a horse, a guy who can pitch 200+ innings with above average results, so do the Twins in Pavano (fingers crossed he stays healthy). If Scott Baker can pitch like he did in '08 and '09, I would put him up against any of the #3s I just listed above. There's a lot of "ifs" with the Twins, but these 'ifs' aren't great stretches of the imagination, they are things that could easily come true.

Now if we can just get that offense to come alive in the playoffs...that would really help turn the Twins' post-season fortunes around.

2010 Year in Preview: AL West Wrapup

AK and I have now put together a Year in Preview for the Mariners, the Athletics, the Angels of Anaheim and the Rangers. Feel free to take a look back and edumacute yourself on how these teams are going to look different in 2010. And make sure you bookmark this post, because we're about to make some sure-to-be-wrong predictions about the AL West in 2010, and it'll be fun to come back and mock us in the comments when we've been proven to be idiots. By May.

So we're going to do three things to wrap up the AL West. First, I'm going to name the guy that I consider to be the top prospect in the AL West. Second, I'm going to give you PECOTA's projected standings for the AL West. Finally, AK and I are going to make predictions for the AL West in 2010. Enjoy.

Top Prospect Neftali Feliz. Who else? We peeped this prospect back in April of 09, and he didn't disappoint in 2009. He put up a 3.49 ERA over 77.1 IP as a 21 year old in AAA. His K/9 checked in at 8.7, his WHIP was 1.280 and his K/BB ratio was a respectable 2.50. Upon getting called up to the Show, he posted a 1.74 ERA over 31 IP, striking out 11.3(!) batters per name, walking only 2.3 batters per nine, with a 0.677 WHIP. In short, dude was straight filthy. It'll be interesting to see what role the Rangers use him in in 2010, but I think it's safe to expect a very good year from Mr. Feliz.



Yeah.

Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA Projected Standings:

Texas Rangers - 87-75 - 826 RS, 760 RA - .278/.350/.464
LA Angels - 80-82 - 767 RS, 775 RA - .272/.341/.443
Oakland Athletics - 80-82 - 726 RS, 773 RA - .263/.343/.417
Seattle Mariners - 77-85 - 713 RS, 752 RA - .272/.345/.406

This is a different projection than what I expected. For one, it has the Rangers winning the AL West handily, by 7 games. It also has the Rangers as the only team in the AL West with a winning record. But most notably is that it projects the Mariners, even with their defensive improvement and improvement in pitching, to come in last place. While their RA total is the least in the AL West, PECOTA obviously doesn't see a whole lotta runs coming the M's way.

In Which AK and I make fools of ourselves:

My predicted standings for the AL West for 2010:
Seattle Mariners - 86-76
Texas Rangers - 84-78
LA Angels - 79-83
Oakland Athletics - 71-91

I truly expect the Mariners to be a run-preventing machine. Their outfield defense could be historically good, and if Bedard can give them solid production then I think you could see the Mariners make the playoffs. I doubt that the Rangers can pull it off. I'm skeptical of their injury-prone offense, and there is a lot of risk in that pitching staff. I laid out my concerns regarding the Angels in my Year In Preview piece, and I stand by that. I don't see the Angels winning the division, and I'm skeptical about their long-term prospects. Finally, while I love Oakland more than Adam, I think the A's are one-year away from being able to make a Seattle-type leap. But they're a darkhorse, to be sure.



AK's predicted standings for the AL West for 2010:
1.) Texas Rangers - (90-72) - Here's what I envision: Josh Hamilton comes back and has another outstanding year, Guerrero regains his form and has a solid year, and some of the young guns that the Rangers have really hit their stride. I know two things, this team can score runs, and I think their pitching will improve from last year.

2.) Seattle Mariners - (88-74) - With a rotation that features Felix Hernandez, Cliff Lee and Erik Bedard as your 1-2-3, you're going to be in decent shape, especially if Bedard can pitch like his old self (which he certainly has the motivation to do). Seattle's problem will likely be scoring runs, which is going to cause them to lose some games their pitching might have won them. There's no power in the lineup, just a bunch of good-OBP, speedy guys. The defense will be solid though and I see Seattle as a contender.

3.) Los Angeles Angels - (82-80) - Here's my prediction, Kazmir gets hurt, Santana continues to struggle and those two things doom the Angels. Here's the reality, the Angels have been in a mostly weak division for the last several years and, in my opinion, that changed this off-season. While the Mariners and Rangers got better, the Angels lost pieces of the puzzle. I see them struggling.

4.) Oakland Athletics - (75-87) - I did the write on these guys and honestly, I just don't see enough consistent talent there to compete in this division. Their starting rotation will be ok, the bullpen will be good, but scoring runs is going to be the handicap for this team. With the recent news that the Athletics are willing to watch Jack Cust walk away, the lineup appears to lack any power. I think Oakland could be good in a couple years, as their talent develops, but this year they are playing too many youngsters to compete in a division this strong.

The NL Central will be next.

2010 Year in Preview: Oakland Athletics

My preamble on the A's is going to be pretty short, this team was fairly pathetic last year and I don't see their fortunes changing much this year. They have a lot of young talents, and they made some small waves in free-agency during the off-season, but the talent they have is mostly raw and unproven.

2009 Record: 75-87, 22GB the Los Angeles Angels (last place, AL West)


Key Departures:
There is no one who departed who could be considered "key." Here are the names of those who left who you might recognize:
-Dana Eveland (SP) - traded to the Blue Jays for PTBNL
-Bobby Crosby (INF) - lost via free-agency to the Pirates
-Scott Hairston (OF) - traded to the Padres


Key Additions:
I can't help but just a bunch of also-rans when I look at the group of players the A's added during the off-season. Here are the bigger names and a brief thought about each.

Ben Sheets (SP) - The one thing that could keep the A's mildly competitive this year, is their starting staff. Sheets had a pretty decent year last year and if he can stay healthy, would be good for 10-15 wins. With Sheets, Duchscherer, and Anderson heading up the rotation, they have a solid 1-2-3 that could prevent extended losing streaks.

Coco Crisp (OF) - The journey continues for this guy who is playing for his 3rd different team in the past 5 years. Crisp provides some solid D, but a middle-of-the-road bat at best.

Jake Fox (INF/OF) - I was really confused when the Cubs traded this guy. Fox was a .293 hitter in 2,636 minor league plate appearances, plus he has power and can play several positions (not very well, though). At 26, he's still young and given regular playing time, I think he'll be a decent player. Apparently, he agrees with me.

Kevin Kouzmanoff (3B) - Kouz is an intriguing player who has gotten better in each of his 3 previous ML seasons. He's not gonna wow anyone by getting on base all the time, but he's a timely hitter, sporting an average of 91RBI every 162 games. One thing that really improved last year was his defense, with only 3 errors in almost 1,200 innings at third.


Talent En Route:
Oakland seems to have quite a bit of depth in their farm system despite how many rookies they've brought up over the past couple of years. Here are two of their prospects that Baseball Prospectus considers to be 5-star prospects.

Chris Carter (1B) - With Daric Barton being the guy who stands in between Carter and a ML gig, I think it we will be seeing this kid in short order. Carter has led the minors in total bases the past two seasons, he's a natural power-hitter, and has apparently reduced his strike-out rate which led Baseball Prospectus to say the following about him:

"He made impressive adjustments against more advanced pitching to close up some holes in his swing, reducing his strikeout rate as the season wore on, leaving most to believe he'll hit for average as well. Combined with a good feel for the strike zone, he could put up big numbers in all three triple-slash categories."

Michael Taylor (LF) - Like Carter, Taylor has very shallow talent in between him and a starting-gig with the A's. Taylor is a contact hitter, producing a solid average, he's very athletic, and throws well. BP calls him an unorthodox hitter, mostly because of his size, 6' 6", 250lbs. Taylor has hit well at all levels of the minors so far and mostly likely will get a chance to play at the major-league level this year.


2011 Free Agency and Salary Outlook:
The Athletics are one of the smaller market teams in MLB considering their total team salary heading into 2010 is $62.3MM. Because their team is so young, they have 1+ years of arbitration left on many of their players, and as for the other ones (Chavez, Sheets, etc), seeing them go after another year or so would not be the end of the world, especially given that Duchscherer and Anderson are really the core of your staff going forward.


The Future of the Athletics:
I'd say the future of the Athletics is bleak. They were last in attendance last year, there is talk of them being sold and/or moved to San Jose, and for as brilliant as Billy Beane is, the Athletics simply cannot consistently compete with such a low payroll. With Seattle re-tooling this off-season, and the Rangers seemingly building into a consistent contender as well, I think Oakland will continue to be the red-headed step child of the AL West.