2010 Year in Preview: AL West Wrapup

AK and I have now put together a Year in Preview for the Mariners, the Athletics, the Angels of Anaheim and the Rangers. Feel free to take a look back and edumacute yourself on how these teams are going to look different in 2010. And make sure you bookmark this post, because we're about to make some sure-to-be-wrong predictions about the AL West in 2010, and it'll be fun to come back and mock us in the comments when we've been proven to be idiots. By May.

So we're going to do three things to wrap up the AL West. First, I'm going to name the guy that I consider to be the top prospect in the AL West. Second, I'm going to give you PECOTA's projected standings for the AL West. Finally, AK and I are going to make predictions for the AL West in 2010. Enjoy.

Top Prospect Neftali Feliz. Who else? We peeped this prospect back in April of 09, and he didn't disappoint in 2009. He put up a 3.49 ERA over 77.1 IP as a 21 year old in AAA. His K/9 checked in at 8.7, his WHIP was 1.280 and his K/BB ratio was a respectable 2.50. Upon getting called up to the Show, he posted a 1.74 ERA over 31 IP, striking out 11.3(!) batters per name, walking only 2.3 batters per nine, with a 0.677 WHIP. In short, dude was straight filthy. It'll be interesting to see what role the Rangers use him in in 2010, but I think it's safe to expect a very good year from Mr. Feliz.



Yeah.

Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA Projected Standings:

Texas Rangers - 87-75 - 826 RS, 760 RA - .278/.350/.464
LA Angels - 80-82 - 767 RS, 775 RA - .272/.341/.443
Oakland Athletics - 80-82 - 726 RS, 773 RA - .263/.343/.417
Seattle Mariners - 77-85 - 713 RS, 752 RA - .272/.345/.406

This is a different projection than what I expected. For one, it has the Rangers winning the AL West handily, by 7 games. It also has the Rangers as the only team in the AL West with a winning record. But most notably is that it projects the Mariners, even with their defensive improvement and improvement in pitching, to come in last place. While their RA total is the least in the AL West, PECOTA obviously doesn't see a whole lotta runs coming the M's way.

In Which AK and I make fools of ourselves:

My predicted standings for the AL West for 2010:
Seattle Mariners - 86-76
Texas Rangers - 84-78
LA Angels - 79-83
Oakland Athletics - 71-91

I truly expect the Mariners to be a run-preventing machine. Their outfield defense could be historically good, and if Bedard can give them solid production then I think you could see the Mariners make the playoffs. I doubt that the Rangers can pull it off. I'm skeptical of their injury-prone offense, and there is a lot of risk in that pitching staff. I laid out my concerns regarding the Angels in my Year In Preview piece, and I stand by that. I don't see the Angels winning the division, and I'm skeptical about their long-term prospects. Finally, while I love Oakland more than Adam, I think the A's are one-year away from being able to make a Seattle-type leap. But they're a darkhorse, to be sure.



AK's predicted standings for the AL West for 2010:
1.) Texas Rangers - (90-72) - Here's what I envision: Josh Hamilton comes back and has another outstanding year, Guerrero regains his form and has a solid year, and some of the young guns that the Rangers have really hit their stride. I know two things, this team can score runs, and I think their pitching will improve from last year.

2.) Seattle Mariners - (88-74) - With a rotation that features Felix Hernandez, Cliff Lee and Erik Bedard as your 1-2-3, you're going to be in decent shape, especially if Bedard can pitch like his old self (which he certainly has the motivation to do). Seattle's problem will likely be scoring runs, which is going to cause them to lose some games their pitching might have won them. There's no power in the lineup, just a bunch of good-OBP, speedy guys. The defense will be solid though and I see Seattle as a contender.

3.) Los Angeles Angels - (82-80) - Here's my prediction, Kazmir gets hurt, Santana continues to struggle and those two things doom the Angels. Here's the reality, the Angels have been in a mostly weak division for the last several years and, in my opinion, that changed this off-season. While the Mariners and Rangers got better, the Angels lost pieces of the puzzle. I see them struggling.

4.) Oakland Athletics - (75-87) - I did the write on these guys and honestly, I just don't see enough consistent talent there to compete in this division. Their starting rotation will be ok, the bullpen will be good, but scoring runs is going to be the handicap for this team. With the recent news that the Athletics are willing to watch Jack Cust walk away, the lineup appears to lack any power. I think Oakland could be good in a couple years, as their talent develops, but this year they are playing too many youngsters to compete in a division this strong.

The NL Central will be next.

2010 Year in Preview: Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. What a ridiculous name. Let's get right to it.

2009 Record: 97-65. Won the AL West, swept Boston in the first round of the ALDS (a glorious moment, to be sure), lost in six to the Yankees in the ALCS (even more glorious).

Key Departures: No one, really. Unless you consider your #1 SP, John Lackey, your starting 3B, Chone Figgins and your cleanup hitter, Vlad Guerrero, to be key. I would. But I'm not running a professional baseball team. The Angels also dealt Gary Matthews Jr, the most expensive 5th OFer in the world, to the Mets and agreed to pay roughly 21M of the remaining 23M left on his contract.

Key Additions: The Angels signed Joel Piniero to a two year deal worth $16M. It remains to be seen if Piniero can excel outside of the tutelage of St. Louis' pitching coach, Dave Duncan. They also signed Hideki Matsui to a 1 year, 6.5M deal. He will mostly DH, but the Angels have apparently promised him that he can spend time at LF. I watched at least 120 Yankees games last year. Matsui could barely run the bases without getting his knees drained. How they plan on using him in the OF, I have no idea. Continuing their pattern of signing overrated closers to expensive deals, the Angels also locked down Fernando Rodney with a 2 year, 11M deal. Because, you know, if you can sign a dude with a 1.42 career WHIP, you MUST DO THAT DEAL.

This seems like a good time to stop and link this, which was awesome. And while I'm at it, I'll embed this, which is also awesome:



As you can see, I am still basking in the World Series glow.

Talent En Route: Well, it appears that Brandon Wood will at long last get a shot at an MLB starting position. Wood will be 25 on Opening Day, and boasts a career .286/.354/.541 tripleslash in seven seasons of Minor League work. He's no late bloomer, though. As a 22 year old, he put up a .272/.338/.497 in AAA; the next year, as a 23 year old, you went for .296/.375/.595, showing a tremendous improvement in both OBP and SLG. Finally, last year, he went for .293/.353/.557. It's clearly time for Wood to get a shot. I would expect a decent regression off the high numbers he put in AAA, but he should hit for power and manage to get on-base at a decent clip.

Other than Wood, the Angels boast no 5-star prospects by Baseball Prospectus' rankings. BP lists their #1 prospect as Mike Trout, an OFer from NJ who slid down in the draft. While watching the draft, I was hoping Trout would fall a few more slots and that the Yankees would be able to pop him, but alas. Trout put up a .360/.418/.506 line as a 19 year old in 39G in Rookie Ball, which is fantastic. He'll begin 2010 in Low-A ball, and he is definitely one to watch.

Hank Conger, C, and Jordan Walden, RHP, are the other two top prospects by BP's reckoning. They are both at least a year off. The Angels are gonna be dancing with the ones that brung 'em in 2010. Or something.

2011 Free Agency and Salary Outlook
The Angels resisted the urge to re-up John Lackey, and let him leave to the Red Sox via free agency. Their team now consists of a mix between veterans signed to short-term, relatively inexpensive deals (Abreu and Matsui), young, inexpensive players that are pre-arb or arbitration-eligible (Mathis, Napoli, Saunders, Weaver, Aybar and Izturis), and veterans signed to more expensive deals (Hunter, Rodney, Santana, Piniero, Kazmir and Fuentes). The Angels are a perpetual tease in free agency. Last year they were linked to Sabathia and Teixeira, but failed to make a competitive offer. This year, they were linked to Lackey, for obvious reasons, but never seemed to come close to making a sustained effort to keep him. LA is a big market, and the Angels don't have any giant contracts like the Yankees or the Red Sox that will constrain them from signing any big FAs. They just don't seem to have any interest in doing so.

Looking ahead to 2011, it is hard to see any good free agent targets for Anaheim. In the OF, Rivera, Hunter and Abreu are all signed through 2011. Wood will be coming off his first season as an MLB regular, and Aybar, Mathis, Napoli, Morales and Kendrick will all still be very cheap. On the pitching side, they will still own the rights to all five of their current top 5 SPs - Kazmir, Weaver, Santana, Saunders and Piniero.

At this point, I can't see the Angels being major players for any of the major FA in the 2011 bumper crop.

The Future of the Angels: Honestly, until I did this preview, I had no idea that the Angels were locked in on as many players as they are. If the Angels don't win the AL West in 2010, what sorts of improvements could they make? Could they deal a MI or CI and attempt to sign a FA? Could they move Saunders or Santana and try to sign someone like Josh Beckett? No clue. I'm bearish on the Angels. I think Seattle, Oakland and Texas have gotten a lot smarter, leaner and stronger, and I think this year will be LA's toughest in recent memory.

Future HOFer? Bobby Abreu

I've written other articles on this blog about people who I think might have hall-of-fame potential, but who are often left out of the conversation. Bobby Abreu is one of those players who has put together solid-season after solid-season and who, in a few years, could have a statistical resume that merits Hall-of-Fame consideration. Let's take a look:

14 Major-League Seasons
1,951 Games
Career .299 Batting Average
2,111 Career Hits
1,270 Career Runs
1,187 Career RBI
256 HRs
348 SBs
Career .404 On-Base-Percentage
Career .896 OPS
2-time All-Star
Gold-Glove Winner (RF)

Those numbers leave him a little short, but he is 35 years old right now and just finished one of the better seasons of his career. He is rarely injured (since 1998, he has played 150 or more games in every season) and is about as steady of a performer as there is. Let's say, for the sake of argument, that Abreu plays another 3 seasons, which sounds reasonable. That would put him at 38 and give him 17 total MLB season, a very solid career. Using his career averages, that would leave him with the following stat line in 3 years.

~2,700 Career Hits
~1,600 Career Runs
~1,500 Career RBI
~320 Career HRs
~440 SBs

That's a very solid and borderline HOF competitive resume for a MLB player. With 3,000 hits and a .300 career average, Abreu would be a lock. With the way that he takes care of himself, it's not at all unreasonable to think he could play until he's 40 in which case he would challenge 3,000 hits. Baseball reference compares his stat line to the likes of George Brett, who is a HOFer. Time will tell, but if Abreu continues his high degree of consistency and stays healthy, he could very well play himself into the Hall of Fame.

UPDATE 11/5/2009:
Bobby Abreu re-signed with the Angels today for a reported $2M, 2-year deal.