Ken Griffey Jr. Retires

When I was a kid, my favorite baseball player was Ken Griffey Jr. I collected his baseball cards, I followed his games and when I was about 13 my dad took me to a Mariners v. Twins game. We were sitting right down the 3rd base line, right over the Twins dugout and my childhood hero, Ken Griffey Jr. stepped up to the plate in the 1st inning against Brad Radke. All I remember is seeing that sweet swing connect with a fastball and watching the ball leave the yard and thinking to myself, "I got to see Griffey Jr. hit a home run."

He'll walk right into the Hall of Fame the 1st year he's eligible, he one of the greatest players during the 90's and I hope that he resurfaces somewhere in the MLB either as a commentator, coach or in some other capacity. Goodbye Ken Griffey Jr., thanks for all the memories.

The King and Lee: Previewing the Mariners' Aces

After last night's dud ended the little winning streak the Twins had been on, they now have the unfortunate task of facing two of the AL's best pitchers on back-to-back nights. Although the Mariners' run-prevention-based strategy hasn't exactly panned out so far (in the sense that although only the Twins and Rays have allowed fewer runs in the AL, the M's are second-to-last in runs scored, good for a -22 run differential), Cliff Lee has been as good as advertised. Felix Hernandez is coming of a dominant 2009 season that saw him finish 2nd in Cy Young voting, but has looked slightly more vulnerable so far this year. Needless to say, they're a formidable one-two punch, and the Twins certainly have their work cut out for them.

Lee has fared well against the Twins in recent years, owning a 2.41 ERA vs Minnesota from 2007 to 2009, and this year he's been even better than his 3.22 ERA shows. His FIP is a ridiculous 1.43, largely a function of his incredible 14.00 K/BB ratio, a BABIP that's a little high at .328, and a strand rate that's significantly below average at 56.8%. Due to his injury to start the season, he's a little behind the rest of the league in terms of sample size, but 44.2 innings is enough to realize that striking out 8.6 batters per nine while walking only .60 is pretty darn good. He has yet to give up a home run this year, so xFIP puts him at 2.84, but Lee has been every bit the ace the Mariners wanted when they traded for him.

Lee won't overwhelm you with velocity, but he features excellent control of five pitches - four-seam fastball, slider, curve (including the infamous "spike curve"), changeup, and a cutter. According to FanGraphs, he's started using the cutter much more frequently the last two years, featuring it 17.7% of the time thus far this season. His fastball averages 91.1 mph, and he keeps hitters off-balance with an 84 mph changeup and a 76 mph curve. He has enough confidence in his impeccable command that he'll throw any of his pitches at any point in the count. He's issued only three walks all season, none of which have been to lefties, so he figures to challenge the Twins' patient approach.

Should the Twins be able to get a win versus Lee, they won't have much time to rest on their laurels with El Cartelua (Felix's nickname in Venezuela, roughly translated as "The Badass") waiting in the wings. The 24-year-old righty broke into the league in 2005 at the age of 19 and owns a 3.45 career ERA, posting his best season as a pro last year. He went 19-5 with a 2.49 ERA and struck out 181 in 238.2 innings, a great season by any standard (although FIP liked him slightly less at 3.09). This year, his FIP has risen to 3.82, partly due to an increase in his BB/9 rate from 2.68 in 2009 to 3.50 this season. That's really the only difference in his peripherals - he's generating ground balls at roughly the same rate, and his velocity has stayed consistent.

Hernandez features four pitches - a hard fastball, a devastating slider, a curve and a changeup. Although he doesn't have quite the pinpoint control, he's got better raw stuff on his primary pitches than Lee does - his fastball averages 94 mph, and his slider averages 85 with excellent movement. So far this season, Felix has relied less on the slider and more on his other breaking pitches - his curve % has increased from 10 to 12.6%, and his changeup has increased from 13.6 to 16.7%. He's also generating slightly more swings on balls outside the strike zone than he did the last few years. The wins haven't been coming as easily due to the Mariners' struggling offense, but I don't think there's a whole lot for Seattle fans to be worried about.

If the Twins can take one of these games, I'll gladly take a series split. On offense, it's going to require taking advantage of of some of the opportunities that they haven't been able to lately. Certainly the home runs in the last few games have been nice, but I've been disappointed with the failure to move runners over and stay out of the double play, the so-called "little things" that have become a cliche in Minnesota (and which aren't exactly true of the way this team plays anymore, at least offensively). Slowey and Pavano will have to be on top of their game, as it may be hard to muster a lot of runs. I'm optimistic that this team can at least get one win against the Mariners' dynamic duo, but it will definitely be a challenge. Let's hope the West Coast swing gets back on the right track tonight.

2010 Year in Preview: AL West Wrapup

AK and I have now put together a Year in Preview for the Mariners, the Athletics, the Angels of Anaheim and the Rangers. Feel free to take a look back and edumacute yourself on how these teams are going to look different in 2010. And make sure you bookmark this post, because we're about to make some sure-to-be-wrong predictions about the AL West in 2010, and it'll be fun to come back and mock us in the comments when we've been proven to be idiots. By May.

So we're going to do three things to wrap up the AL West. First, I'm going to name the guy that I consider to be the top prospect in the AL West. Second, I'm going to give you PECOTA's projected standings for the AL West. Finally, AK and I are going to make predictions for the AL West in 2010. Enjoy.

Top Prospect Neftali Feliz. Who else? We peeped this prospect back in April of 09, and he didn't disappoint in 2009. He put up a 3.49 ERA over 77.1 IP as a 21 year old in AAA. His K/9 checked in at 8.7, his WHIP was 1.280 and his K/BB ratio was a respectable 2.50. Upon getting called up to the Show, he posted a 1.74 ERA over 31 IP, striking out 11.3(!) batters per name, walking only 2.3 batters per nine, with a 0.677 WHIP. In short, dude was straight filthy. It'll be interesting to see what role the Rangers use him in in 2010, but I think it's safe to expect a very good year from Mr. Feliz.



Yeah.

Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA Projected Standings:

Texas Rangers - 87-75 - 826 RS, 760 RA - .278/.350/.464
LA Angels - 80-82 - 767 RS, 775 RA - .272/.341/.443
Oakland Athletics - 80-82 - 726 RS, 773 RA - .263/.343/.417
Seattle Mariners - 77-85 - 713 RS, 752 RA - .272/.345/.406

This is a different projection than what I expected. For one, it has the Rangers winning the AL West handily, by 7 games. It also has the Rangers as the only team in the AL West with a winning record. But most notably is that it projects the Mariners, even with their defensive improvement and improvement in pitching, to come in last place. While their RA total is the least in the AL West, PECOTA obviously doesn't see a whole lotta runs coming the M's way.

In Which AK and I make fools of ourselves:

My predicted standings for the AL West for 2010:
Seattle Mariners - 86-76
Texas Rangers - 84-78
LA Angels - 79-83
Oakland Athletics - 71-91

I truly expect the Mariners to be a run-preventing machine. Their outfield defense could be historically good, and if Bedard can give them solid production then I think you could see the Mariners make the playoffs. I doubt that the Rangers can pull it off. I'm skeptical of their injury-prone offense, and there is a lot of risk in that pitching staff. I laid out my concerns regarding the Angels in my Year In Preview piece, and I stand by that. I don't see the Angels winning the division, and I'm skeptical about their long-term prospects. Finally, while I love Oakland more than Adam, I think the A's are one-year away from being able to make a Seattle-type leap. But they're a darkhorse, to be sure.



AK's predicted standings for the AL West for 2010:
1.) Texas Rangers - (90-72) - Here's what I envision: Josh Hamilton comes back and has another outstanding year, Guerrero regains his form and has a solid year, and some of the young guns that the Rangers have really hit their stride. I know two things, this team can score runs, and I think their pitching will improve from last year.

2.) Seattle Mariners - (88-74) - With a rotation that features Felix Hernandez, Cliff Lee and Erik Bedard as your 1-2-3, you're going to be in decent shape, especially if Bedard can pitch like his old self (which he certainly has the motivation to do). Seattle's problem will likely be scoring runs, which is going to cause them to lose some games their pitching might have won them. There's no power in the lineup, just a bunch of good-OBP, speedy guys. The defense will be solid though and I see Seattle as a contender.

3.) Los Angeles Angels - (82-80) - Here's my prediction, Kazmir gets hurt, Santana continues to struggle and those two things doom the Angels. Here's the reality, the Angels have been in a mostly weak division for the last several years and, in my opinion, that changed this off-season. While the Mariners and Rangers got better, the Angels lost pieces of the puzzle. I see them struggling.

4.) Oakland Athletics - (75-87) - I did the write on these guys and honestly, I just don't see enough consistent talent there to compete in this division. Their starting rotation will be ok, the bullpen will be good, but scoring runs is going to be the handicap for this team. With the recent news that the Athletics are willing to watch Jack Cust walk away, the lineup appears to lack any power. I think Oakland could be good in a couple years, as their talent develops, but this year they are playing too many youngsters to compete in a division this strong.

The NL Central will be next.

2010 Year in Preview: Seattle Mariners

Well, well, well...it was hard to pass up on doing the review for the Mariners due in large part to the fact that they have probably made more moves this off-season than any other team. Clearly the upper management is either a) tired of mediocrity or b) interested in at least satiating the fans and providing some guise of hope. Me? I'm bullish on Seattle this year, but let's take a look at what's happened this off-season.

2009 Record: 85-77, 12 GB the Los Angeles Angels

Key Departures:
As with the additions to this team, where do you start? Here's a list and blurb about each one:

Jerrod Washburn (SP) - traded last year, everyone knows the Mariners traded him at the right time, he's sucked since leaving Seattle.
Eric Bedard (SP) - I guess you have to know when it's time to cut your losses, and with Bedard, letting him go is probably the best move they can make.
Adrian Beltre (3B) - lost via Free Agency to the Red Sox; I think Beltre is a good player and they'll miss his bat.
Russell Branyan - Lost via free agency; little known fact, Branyan's 162 game average for HRs is 30...of course with that you also get a .234 lifetime hitter.
Mike Sweeney (DH) - Lost via free agency to the White Sox; Seattle never really had intention to bring Sweeney back, especially considering they brought Ken Griffey Jr. back and have now signed Casey Kotchman and Ryan Garko. Sweeney is on the backside of his career, they didn't lose much here.
Endy Chavez (UT) - Voted by the players as the "Most Likely to have a Journeyman Career", seriously though, it is surprising that this guy continues to get major league gigs.
Kenji Johjima (C) - Went to play in Japan, probably more where he belongs. Johjima was a much better game/pitcher manager than he was a hitter. The Mariners will miss him, but it's not a back-breaker.
Chris Jakubauskas (SP/RP) - It didn't seem to me that the Mariners knew what to do with this guy last year, he started some, relieved some, but was overall pretty worthless. The Pirates claimed him off waivers. The dude is 30 and last year was his first year in the Bigs, if I'm the Mariners I say "Good Riddance."
Bill Hall (3B) - Traded to the Red Sox, I have nothing to say about Bill Hall.
Miguel Batista (SP) - Hard to call this guy a "key departure." He's 38, he's been given one last shot by the Nationals, my money is on him retiring after this season.


Key Additions:
Clifton Phifer Lee (SP) - Adding Lee is easily the biggest splash the Mariners made in the off-season, we'll see how Cliff Lee re-adjusts to the American League, I don't personally think he'll do very well with Seattle, but if he does well, the King Felix/Cliff Lee combo will be a nice one.
Desmond DeChone Figgins (3B) - Figgins will be a nice speed boost to the Mariners team and he also brings intangibles like scrappiness and heart. In all seriousness, I like Figgins a lot, he's been getting better and better and I well, I wish the Twins had gotten him.
Milton Bradley (OF) - Trading for this guy pretty much insured the self-destruction of the Mariners this year.
Yusmeiro Alberto Petit (SP?) - This is what the U.S.S. Mariner had to say about this acquisition: "The M’s continue to collect moderately interesting, low upside pitching without expending any resources."
Casey John Kotchman (1B/DH) - the "loot" from the Bill Hall trade. I'm guessing Kotchman will be a bench player mostly and play some 1st base as well. He's middle-of-the-road, a good back-up.
Ryan F. Garko (1B/DH) - Garko was a free-agent and just recently signed with the Mariners, he'll platoon with Kotchman, personally I like Garko, it will be interesting to see how he continues to develop in Seattle.
Eric Byrnes (OF) - This makes sense for the Mariners. While the Diamondbacks are on the hook for $11M of Byrnes' salary, all Seattle has to do is pay $400,000 and they give a guy who was once pretty good, a chance to resurrect his career.

Talent En Route:
The Mariners do have a pretty exciting farm system, which in addition to the new talents, can bolster the hopes of the fans in Seattle. Four guys deserve mention:

Greg Halman (OF) - this guy is pretty much the definition of "free-swinging." He fell a homer short of the 30-30 mark getting as high as Double-A, but had a miserable batting average and struck out a minor-league high 183 times. Halman is only 22, so he's got a long time to figure things out, and I wouldn't be surprised if he gets his first taste this year.

Michael Pineda (RHP) - A Double-A when healthy, he posted a 2.84 ERA in 10 starts and walked just six in 44 1/3 innings, striking out 48 and limiting hitters to a .190 average. (source)

Alex Liddi (3B) - At 21, this guy looks crazy good. He plays good defense, hits for average AND power and last year was the MVP of the California League and also played for Italy in the WBC. Look for this guy to break into the Bigs in the next few years.

Kenn Kasperek (RHP) - The 6-foot-8 Kasparek limited hitters to a .236 average, striking out 134 while walking 32 in 141 2/3 innings. (source) Sounds like the Mariners may have found the next Randy Johnson?

2011 Free Agency and Salary Outlook:
As Mitch Ratcliffe of Northwest Diamond Notes contends, the Mariners have really set themselves up nicely for an extended period of prosperity. Right now, they have around $90MM committed to their 25-man roster for 2010, in 2011, that number will drop to about $75MM, but you'd figure they'd re-sign Cliff Lee which will more than likely cost them the difference. BUT, that low figure allows them to make further moves this off-season and also make more move mid-season, or next year. So, while this year may be an experiment of sorts, next year and in years to come, the Mariners could be a force to recon with.

The Future of the Mariners:
I think if you're a Mariners fan, you have to like the direction your team is headed in. They just re-signed their star young-stud pitcher to a lengthy contract extension, they've been very active in the off-season making deals and adding talented pieces and they have set themselves up well to continue to do so over the next few years. Add to that a well-stocked farm system and a manager who appears to have his hands firmly on the helm and you're looking at a high-upside team with a lot to be excited about. This year may not yield results, but over the next 5 years, I think the Mariners will see more up than down.