tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6523770805945812882024-03-05T07:09:17.942-05:00The Bat ShattersOn the Minnesota Twins, Kansas City Royals, Chicago Cubs and Major League BaseballAdam Kruegerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12460938738580518447noreply@blogger.comBlogger397125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-652377080594581288.post-15160723533340642262019-07-24T15:26:00.002-04:002019-07-24T15:26:52.521-04:00What If the Bullpen Isn't the Biggest Problem?Every Twins fan knows how great the first couple of months of this season were. Through June 15th, the Twins were 47-22 and built an 11.5 game lead in the division. Since then have played to a mediocre record of 14-17 record and have seen the division lead shrink to 3 games. In much the opposite way, the Giants started 34-46 through June 27th and have gone 18-4 since then. They play in the same division as the Dodgers so they are still a distant 2nd, 14.5 games out, but only 2 games out of the final wildcard spot.<br />
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So how does a front-office figure out what they've got, this close to the Trade Deadline?<br />
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I was doing some digging today, looking at various stats and this is what I've got. Is this what Falvey and Levine will look at? I have no idea, I wish I could be a fly on the wall in some of their meetings.<br />
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<b>Stuff We All Know</b><br />
The Twins offense is 3rd in baseball in runs scored per game at 5.69 R/G, they trail only the Yankees and Red Sox. When the Twins score 5 or more runs in a game, they have gone 49-7 this season. Twins pitching, overall, is 12th in baseball, giving up 4.58 R/G. The bullpen has been worse than the starting pitchers, but in a word, Twins pitching has been mostly mediocre. Addressing the bullpen has been the anthem of Twins fans for a long time now. But what if that's not the biggest problem?<br />
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<b>The Less Obvious</b><br />
The stuff I find interesting is base-running stats and fielding stats. The Twins are 27th in a stat called ErrR (error runs) and in the bottom third of MLB for total team errors. On FanGraphs, the ErrR stat measures "the number of runs, above or below average, a fielder (in this case, team) is, determined by the number of errors they make as compared to an average fielder, given the same distribution of balls in play." In other words, the Twins have been one of the worst teams in baseball in terms of the cost of errors. Does that mean they are a bad fielding team? Not necessarily, and some stellar outfield defense certainly helps tilt the scales in their favor. What it does suggest is that the Twins are sloppy at times, particularly in the infield.<br />
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On the basepaths, the story is similar. Again, using FanGraphs, we see that the Twins are 26th in baseball in a <a href="https://library.fangraphs.com/offense/bsr/">stat named BrR</a>. In their own words:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<i><span style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: georgia; font-size: 16px;">Base Running (BsR) </span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: georgia; font-size: 16px;">is FanGraphs’ all encompassing base running statistic that turns stolen bases, caught stealings, and other base running plays (taking extra bases, being thrown out on the bases, etc) into runs above and below average. It is the combination of Weighted Stolen Base Runs (wSB), Weighted Grounded Into Double Play Runs (wGDP), and Ultimate Base Running (UBR) which are all available on the leaderboards and player pages.</span></i></blockquote>
As a number, BsR is meant to be looked at similar to how WAR is looked at. The Twins are -6.4 BsR, meaning they have been over 6 runs worse than the league-average base-running team...another way of saying it is that they have been TERRIBLE on the bases, relative to the rest of the league.<br />
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Let's look at one more area - clutch hitting. It's easy to lose sight of how Twins' hitters have performed in high-leverage situations when they are hitting 3-5 bombs a night. Going back to the FanGraphs' well one more time, we see that the Twins are 29th in baseball in <a href="https://library.fangraphs.com/misc/clutch/">clutch hitting situations</a> (-5.26) and they are in the bottom 1/3rd of MLB in walk rate (8.0%). Last night is a perfect example of what I'm talking about. The bottom of the second inning starts with: Rosario double, Sano K, Gonzalez BB, Arraez single (scores Rosario), Adrianza BB. So, bases loaded, 1-out and up comes Jason Castro. He strikes out on three straight pitches (two of them swinging strikes, on pitches out of the zone) and then Kepler grounds out on the first pitch he sees...and this off of a guy who had already walked two guys in the inning! I'm not sure the coaching staff can do a whole lot about plate discipline, but having a little patience in high-leverage situations sure would be nice to see. The Twins are 10th in baseball for batting average with runners-in-scoring-position (RISP) but there is definitive room for improvement.<br />
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<b>Drill the Fundamentals?</b><br />
New Twins manager Rocco Baldelli enjoyed a first-half which saw the Twins a) hit homeruns at a historic pace and b) feast on pretty easy competition. Now that the tables have turned, and the Twins have faced some tougher competition, the results haven't been so great. The bullpen's woes notwithstanding, I think another concern for this team, which is relatively young, is that they are not that sound fundamentally, either in the field or on the bases, and it's costing them runs and, ultimately, wins. That, coupled with some free-swinging in high-leverage situations and some of the shine comes off.<br />
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It's easy to blame many of the Twins woes on the bullpen, and the bullpen certainly deserves criticism. But, at the same time, Baldelli only has what he has when it comes to bullpen arms. If he leans heavily on some of his more reliable guys, he's going to have to get them some rest and hope for the best with the other guys for a game or two. What he does have more control over, is the level of discipline that his team has, both in the field and on the bases. That might be one place to look to in terms of trying to turn things around.<br />
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**As my friend Tim pointed out - one has to wonder if the team culture that Baldelli has helped create isn't one of the big reasons for the Twins turnaround this season and that's a fair point. The team reminds me of many of the teams that Joe Maddon had in Tampa and now with Chicago - very loose and free, with a lot of young guys who seem to get along. Who knows how "cracking down on the small things" might change the atmosphere, that is something only Rocco Baldelli knows. What I know is what the stats are saying and they are suggesting that increased plate, fielding and base-running discipline would probably help this team out a lot.Adam Kruegerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12460938738580518447noreply@blogger.com7tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-652377080594581288.post-54652479838009254342019-06-20T16:51:00.004-04:002019-06-21T10:18:56.011-04:00The Necessary StruggleWhat a fun Twins season so far, huh? I was looking at the standings after their 17-inning marathon win against the Red Sox the other day and it was beautifully symmetrical - 48 wins, 24 losses, 2nd best run-differential in Major League Baseball... It feels like it has been so long since we had a Twins team that we could really get behind. I'm excited about the youth the Twins have throughout most of their lineup and about the energy that Rocco Baldelli has brought to this team. Based on the players I follow on Instagram, it seems like they all genuinely like each other too, which is great to see.<br />
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With all that being said - the Red Sox and Kansas City series' have revealed some weaknesses on this team, and a recent spat of injuries will likely lead to a slump for this team over the next couple of weeks...but I think that is actually a good thing. Especially for a young team like the Twins. Jumping out to a huge lead in the division so early was making it look like this was going to be a fun summer, but also one in which the team might have been tempted to pull back a little and not put everything in to every game - which I think would ultimately be detrimental to a probable playoff run.<br />
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<b>Reasons for Hope and Reasons for Pessimism</b><br />
I'm a stats guy - always have been since the glory days of this blog. When I look for reasons to be optimistic or pessimistic, I don't look at individual performances in games, but rather, I turn to the stats. We are at a point in this baseball season where there is enough information to start to read trends. Let's look at the pitching first.<br />
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Twins starting pitching has been pretty good so far this year. The Twins rank 3rd in MLB in starter's ERA (3.58), 2nd in MLB in starters WAR (8.8), and 7th in MLB baseball in starters FIP (3.91). This isn't likely to be news to anyone - Jose Berrios and Jake Odorizzi have been consistently excellent, Martin Perez started off hot but has faltered a bit lately, Kyle Gibson has been his normal streaky self, and Michael Pineda has been steadily improving after a slow start. The starting pitching, combined with a spectacular offense, is a big reason the Twins are one of the best teams in baseball through the first half of the season. I would love to see the Twins add a solid mid-rotation starter and move a guy like Pineda (or maybe even Perez) to the bullpen, but if they don't make a move there, I think they will be fine. A playoff rotation of Berrios, Odorizzi and Gibson would be pretty good.<br />
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Equally unsurprising to anyone watching the Twins will the fact that the bullpen has been, once again, mediocre. Twins relievers are 19th in MLB in ERA (4.58), 12th in MLB in FIP (4.26) and 9th in MLB in WAR (2.0). The numbers suggest that Twins relievers have actually pitched a little bit better than the result have indicated, but still, no matter how you slice the data, they haven't been great. Close leads have never felt very safe with this team and the closer position has been a merry-go-round for most of the season. This is going to be an obvious area of focus for the Twins over the next 6 weeks before the trade deadline and it will be interesting to see what they do. I was really hoping they would have sprung for Kimbrel, but alas.<br />
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The recent injuries to guys like Byron Buxton and Marwin Gonzalez are the most concerning thing to me. Buxton's offensive resurgence notwithstanding, his absence in the outfield is what the Twins will miss the most. The Twins, to-date this season, are the 2nd best fielding team in baseball, only slightly behind the Diamondbacks. You could make a very easy argument that this defense has been one of the biggest reasons for the improvement we've seen in the rotation. An outfield of Rosario, Buxton, and Kepler on a day-in, day-out basis, with the occasional fill-in from Marwin Gonzalez (who is also an above average corner-outfielder) is a huge reason that the Twins starting rotation is one of the best in baseball. I'm hoping that Buxton recovers well from his wrist-injury, an injury that always threatens to sap a batter's power upon return.<br />
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<b>Adversity Will Help This Team in Long Run</b><br />
Twins' hitters are the 13th youngest team in Majors (28.0) with the league average being 28.2 - if you take Nelson Cruz out of the mix, who is 38, you're looking at a line-up that is among the youngest in the league. Pitching-wise, the Twins are also about league-average for age. So, relatively-speaking, this is a fairly young team and there are not many players on the roster who have any significant playoff experience. In this author's humble opinion, simply running away with the division would not be the best thing for this team - a little bit of adversity here in the middle of what has been an excellent season so far, will help this team learn how to pick itself up. It will test, and hopefully strengthen, some of the camaraderie that developed as well.<br />
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I also think that some adversity will help Baldelli as well - he has had the luxury, up until now, of managing a squad that has far out-performed expectations. In fact, up to this point, this team has yet to lose more than two games in a row. His first real test as a manager will be if this team goes on a longer losing streak.<br />
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The upcoming schedule will be a bit of a test - 4 games on the road at Kansas City starting tonight, followed by 3 at home against Tampa Bay and then a 6-game road trip against the White Sox and Oakland A's. Tampa Bay has been mostly good all season and the A's have been playing pretty well as of late. The White Sox have been hovering around .500 for awhile and have played some decent ball this month.<br />
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<b>The Jury is Out for Falvey and Levine</b><br />
Thad Levine and Derek Falvey have me and many others believing in this team - which levers will they pull to address the bullpen situation and perhaps, the addition of another starting pitcher to the mix as we head towards the trade deadline on July 31st? The salary space is there, this team has been drawing well over the past month, and the farm system is fairly stocked. There is no excuse for not making some impactful moves for a team that seems to be almost a lock to make the playoffs. Most of the moves they made in the off-season have worked out as well as they could - let hope they have a few more rabbits in their hat.<br />
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<b>Odds 'n Ends</b><br />
- Since his 0-for-21 skid, Max Kepler is hitting (13 Games): .391/.509/.935, 13 Rs, 7 HRs, 14RBIs, 9:11 K:BB ratio, in short, an absolute monster. He practically single-handedly won the game for the Twins the other night after coming in as a pinch-hitter.<br />
- Willians Astudillo hit .526/.525/.763 in Triple-A (9 games) after being sent down by the Twins. He came back up last night and went 3-for-4 with a HR. The Twins have to find some way to keep him mad all of the time.<br />
- Over his last 5 games, Miguel Sano has been putrid, hitting .105/.261/.263 with 12 SO and 4 BB. In the 17-inning game against the Red Sox, he was 0-for-7 with 5Ks which was good for a -0.433 WPA. That -0.433 WPA was easily one of the top 5 worst single-game performances in baseball this season.<br />
- Since the start of June (3 starts), Jose Berrios has been ridiculous. 20.2 IP, 1.31 ERA, 22:3 K:BB ratio, opponents hitting .184/.215/.329 off of him. He has lowered his season ERA from 3.27 at the beginning of the month 2.86 currently. Unfortunately for him, the Twins have only won 1 of his 3 June starts (thanks bullpen!).<br />
- On the opposite end, Martin Perez has been pretty bad in his 3 June starts. 16.1 IP, 5.51 ERA, 15:6 K:BB ratio, opponents hitting .269/.329/.328 off him. Overall, his last 5 starts have all been mediocre-to-bad, without a quality start in that timespan. Let's hope he can rediscover whatever magic he had going earlier in the year.<br />
- Love me some FanGraphs and just today the had a blog article about how Minnesota's own Jake Odorizzi has the best fastball in MLB so far this season. <a href="https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-best-fastball-of-2019/">Check it out</a>.Adam Kruegerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12460938738580518447noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-652377080594581288.post-76158158236499223452016-11-03T14:27:00.003-04:002016-11-03T14:27:20.709-04:00The Cubs, The Indians, and The Best Game in 25 YearsWow. What a <strike>flippedy,-friggin',-fraggin'</strike> game. In my 33 years of life, there are not many sports moments where I can clearly remember where I was when ___ happened. Being a Minnesota sports fan, most of those moments are bad anyway and involve missed Field Goals. Last night though, is a great memory and will always be one of those "I remember that night" kind of memories.<br />
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I moved to the Chicago area for college 14 years ago. During my sophomore year, 2003, I got my first introduction to the agony of Cubs fandom. Everyone knows the story now - my friends and I were making plans to hop on a Metra train to go downtown and celebrate a Cubs NLCS win when the Bartman incident happened and everyone knows the rest of the story. What proceeded that season was another 12 years of mostly bad teams with the occasional blip here and there (LDS losses in '07 and '08). In 2009 the Cubs were sold by the Tribune Company to the Ricketts Family and that was the beginning of the turnaround. In 2011, they hired baseball-wizard Theo Epstein from the Boston Red Sox. Theo turned around and hired Jed Hoyer (as GM) and Jason McLeod (Director of Scouting and Player Development) from the San Diego Padres and then in 2015, Theo hired Joe Maddon from the Tampa Bay Rays.<br />
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<b>Here are Theo's (and Jed Hoyer's) other moves since becoming President of Baseball Operations:</b><br />
- Acquired <b>Miguel Montero</b> from the Arizona Diamondbacks via trade (2014)<br />
- Signed free-agent <b>David Ross</b> to a 2-year, $5MM deal (2014)<br />
- Acquired <b>Anthony Rizzo</b> from the San Diego Padres via trade (2012)<br />
- Signed free-agent <b>Ben Zobrist</b> to a 4-year, $56MM deal (2015)<br />
- Acquired <b>Addison Russell</b> from the Oakland Athletics via trade (2015)<br />
- Signed free-agent <b>Jason Heyward</b> to an 8-year, $184MM deal (2015) <br />
- Acquired <b>Dexter Fowler</b> from the Houston Astros via trade (2015, re-signed 2016)<br />
- Acquired <b>Jake Arrieta</b> & <b>Pedro Strop</b> from the Baltimore Orioles via trade (2013)<br />
- Acquired <b>Kyle Hendricks</b> from the Texas Rangers via trade (2012)<br />
- After trading <b>Jason Hammel</b> for A. Russell, re-signed free-agent Hammel to 2-year deal (2014)<br />
- Signed free-agent <b>Jon Lester</b> to a 6-year, $155MM deal (2014)<br />
- Acquired <b>Mike Montgomery</b> from the Seattle Mariners via trade (2016)<br />
- Signed International free agent <b>Jorge Soler</b> (2012)<br />
- Acquired <b>Aroldis Chapman</b> from the New York Yankees via trade (2016)<br />
- Selected <b>Javier Baez</b> with the 9th overall pick in 2011 draft<br />
- Selected <b>Kris Bryant</b> with the 2nd overall pick in 2013 draft<br />
- Selected <b>Kyle Schwarber</b> with the 4th overall pick in 2014 draft <br />
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The above is, more or less, the anatomy of a Championship, at least from a player personnel standpoint. The Ricketts Family, specifically Tom Ricketts did what all of us fans of other sports franchises wish that our owner would do...he brought in the absolute best people he could to run the team and those people turned around and hired the best people around them. In basically 4 years, Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer built the Chicago Cubs into a World Series Champion.<br />
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Last season I had a chance to go to NLCS Game 3 at Wrigley Field. My friend Bryan, who has been a season-ticket holder for awhile, offered me a ticket and I didn't hesitate. It will always be one of my best sports memories. I had never been to a playoff game before and aside from the Cubs losing that game and eventually getting swept by The New York Mets, everything else about that experience was great. Sitting there in that game you knew that even if 2015 wasn't the Cubs year, it wasn't going to be far off. They were one or two pieces away from being a truly special team.<br />
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The 2016 season needs no recap. The Cubs added Zobrist and Heyward in the off-season, lead all of Major League Baseball in wins (103) and clinched the NL Central with two weeks to go in the season. They faced the San Francisco Giants in the NLDS and took care of business, winning the series 3-1 capped off by an improbable and historic 9th inning comeback in Game 4. So they were back to where they left off the previous year - an NLCS match-up with the Los Angeles Dodgers.<br />
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This time around - we paid secondary-market prices to go and see a game. My friend Stephen flew in from North Carolina and he, my wife and I went to NLCS Game 2. The Cubs got Kershaw'ed in that game, losing 1-0 which was, again, disappointing, but also a lot of fun. The Cubs went on to win that Series as well, achieving their first World Series berth in 71 years. At that point, I was content to watch the rest of the playoffs from the comfort of my own (or others) living room. My income level doesn't come close to being able to afford the $2,000+/seat price tag that World Series tickets at Wrigley were going for. Then I went over to my friend Bryan's house again during Game 1 of the World Series...<br />
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Through some amount of magic and sleight of hand, my friend Bryan (same one as before) had gotten his hands on face-value tickets to the World Series, for all of the games at Wrigley (3, 4 and 5). When he told me we were going, I just sat there and stunned disbelief. The World Series? At Wrigley? Once in a lifetime opportunity - especially considering how long it had been since the last time the Cubs made it that far. The experience was magical. Again, the Cubs lost, getting Kluber'ed enroute to a 7-2 loss, which at that point made the series 3-1 in favor of Cleveland. We talked towards the end of that game how the pitching match-ups in games 5 and 6 favored the Cubs and we all thought it at least plausible that the Cubs could get the Series to Game 7. That is exactly what happened as the Cubs' bats came alive in Games 5 and 6, forcing a winner-take-all final game.<br />
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I was 8 years old in 1991 when the Twins won the World Series. I don't remember watching the game but I remember all of the excitement. I have since watched that Game 7 at least 3 or 4 times because I have a DVD of that Game and that entire series. It's arguable, but in my mind, that is the greatest baseball game ever played and it would be almost impossible to top it...last night's game came close. Leslie and I watched the game with friends, she has been a life-long Cubs fan - I was dancing around the living room when Dexter Fowler hit the lead-off home run. We were second-guessing Maddon's moves all game long, especially why he took Hendricks out so early and why he brought Chapman in when he did. We all sat there stunned when Rajai friggin' Davis hit that game-tying home run. And of course we were all on our feet hugging and high-fiving when Bryant scooped up that grounder and fired over to Rizzo for the final out, grin on his face the whole time. We went outside - it was just after Midnight and there were people outside yelling, lighting off fireworks, driving down the street honking, yelling, everything. It was a great moment. If you're a Cubs fan, or even a baseball fan in general - Game 7 had everything you could want in a game. Home runs, an epic comeback, a short rain-delay, starting pitchers relieving, long relievers closing, relative nobodies (Carl Edwards Jr.) in staggeringly huge situations...and finally a world championship for a franchise that has waited longer than any other franchise in sports. It was great to feel like we were a part of it. It's a game and a playoff run that I will tell my daughters about when they are old enough to understand baseball. Congratulations to the Chicago Cubs and to Cub fans everywhere, especially the older ones.Adam Kruegerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12460938738580518447noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-652377080594581288.post-66357262379916510652014-12-11T16:43:00.001-05:002014-12-11T17:19:28.608-05:00A Vast Improvement (?): Ervin Santana<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;">Ervin Santana is a Twin.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Four-years, $55MM deal.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>For the
Twins he presents another foray into the free agent market for second tier
starting pitching.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I like it!<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I like it when it is compared to <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/jacksed01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.typepad.com"><span style="color: blue;">Edwin
Jackson’s</span></a> four-year $52 million deal last year. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I have been critical of the Twins for some
time but it is nice to see them spending some money on decent players with some
upside (even if there were other guys I’d rather see wear a Twins uni).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The good:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>he immediately improves one of baseball’s <a href="http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/team/_/stat/pitching/year/2014/seasontype/2"><span style="color: blue;">worst
starting rotations</span></a> (sort by any metric you want, they all look bad).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If, and it’s a big if, Nolasco can turn into
the pitcher they paid for not the pitcher he was, the rotation looks much more
palatable.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>A Hughes, Santana, Nolasco,
Gibson, Meyer/May/Pelfrey combo looks intriguing.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It looks even better when compared to Hughes,
Nolasco, Gibson, Pelfrey, Milone… seriously, wow.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Sadly, this still isn’t a very good rotation
and the addition of Santana caused me to mention to Adam how sad it is that the
addition of Santana simply made the rotation, not terrible. He is a fly
ball(ish) pitcher with strikeout numbers trending in the right direction (thank
goodness) and a history of giving up the long ball.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>You can hope a move to Target Field will help
though the defense behind him will continue to be bad.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I am hopeful he can pitch to his recent track
record.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Moving to the AL might hurt but
the AL Central is not the toughest of divisions. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: inherit;"></span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;">Now, at 32 (tomorrow), durability has to be somewhat of a
question.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Fangraphs pointed out back in
October that Santana relies more on the slider than any <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/predicting-the-2014-15-qualifying-offers-pitchers/"><span style="color: blue;">right-handed
starting pitcher</span></a>.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And we all
remember a <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/liriafr01.shtml"><span style="color: blue;">certain
lefty</span></a> with a high reliance upon a slider.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Speaking of Liriano, would you have been upset if the Twins brought back
Franky at three years, $39MM?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>That seems
about right… same age as Santana, similar pitcher, fewer years for less dollars
and most importantly, no draft pick.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It
is a contract that seems to fit the recent Twins MO.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Admittedly, I do not know the ins and outs of
the <span style="font-family: inherit;">Liriano deal nor likelihood he would have left the Pirates for a move back
to Twins.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"></span><a href="http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/10/free-agent-profile-ervin-santana-2.html"><span style="color: blue;">The
MLB Trade Rumors breakdown of Santana </span></a><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>is great and they basically pegged the
contract.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It is a bit interesting to see the Twins
target one of the only pitchers on the market that received a qualifying
offer.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>With the Twins not likely to
compete for a few years it stings a little bit giving up a draft pick to sign
Santana.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>All-in-all I am a happy Twins
fan today.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I don’t believe this makes
the Twins a contender nor do I think it hamstrings them from making other,
productive signings.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Committing $13.5
million per year to Santana is not onerous.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Hopefully, when the Twins get to the back half of this deal, Santana will
be a foundational piece of a team stringing together division titles.</span></div>
<span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"></span><o:p></o:p></span>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14915459272867324839noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-652377080594581288.post-62831534110833593372014-12-10T16:07:00.001-05:002014-12-10T16:07:08.935-05:00The Key to the Jon Lester: Jake ArrietaOne of the great things about this blog revamp is that I'm not longer beholden to only writing about the Twins. Here's my first non-Twins related blogpost.<br />
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By now, everyone has heard about the Cubs signing of Jon Lester to a 6-year, $155MM contract (with a $30MM signing bonus!) and I've seen numerous Cubs fans on Twitter now talking about how the Cubs are surely World Series bound. I love the optimism. I'm not here to squash those dreams but instead, I'm here to look at the Cubs rotation after Lester which, in my mind, leaves a lot to be desired.<br />
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One of the things I've been seeing on Twitter is this excitement surrounding a 1-2 punch of Lester and Arrieta. I understand the Lester excitement as he's been one of the best left-handed pitchers in MLB for the last several years. As for Arrieta however, he had a great 2014 campaign, but even a cursory glance at his numbers prior to 2013 makes one pause and perhaps pull back a little on the excitement about the Cubs #2 starter.<br />
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Arrieta was drafted out of college by the Baltimore Orioles in 2007. He rose fairly quickly with the Orioles and made his Major League debut in 2010 at the age of 24. He had been on the prospect radars but was never very highly ranked (#67 by Baseball America and #52 by Baseball Prospectus) so his arrival at the Big League level was quiet. During his rookie season he started 18 games for the Orioles compiling a 4.66 ERA over 100+ innings and had pretty lackluster peripherals including a 4.7 K/9 ratio, a 4.3 BB/9 ratio, an 89 ERA+, and a 4.76 FIP (5.17 xFIP).<br />
<br />
Arrieta went on to miss parts of the 2010 and 2011 seasons due to bone spurs in his pitching elbow - a problem that was ultimately corrected via surgery in 2011. In 2012 Arrieta made the Opening Day roster but was mostly horrible through the first 3 months of the season before being demoted back to Triple-A at the beginning of July. In 2013, he again made the Opening Day roster, was again terrible, and was subsequently demoted to Triple-A again in Late April. It was at that point the Orioles decided to bail on Arrieta and they traded him to the Cubs. The Cubs gave Arrieta another shot in August of 2013 and he ended up pitching pretty well, compiling a 3.66 ERA over 9 starts to end the 2013 season.<br />
<br />
Arrieta developed shoulder inflammation in Spring Training prior to the 2014 season and ended up missing the first 27 games of the year. His first start of the year was May 3rd and from then on, he was nothing short of spectacular for the rest of the season. He ended up giving the Cubs 156+ innings in 2014, had a sparkling 2.53 ERA, 0.98 WHIP (2.26 FIP, 2.73 xFIP) and had a stunning 9.6 K/9 ratio. I say stunning because prior to the 2014 season, Arrieta had a 6.9 K/9 ratio.<br />
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The biggest question with Arrieta is "was 2014 a fluke or did the Cubs change something in Arrieta's delivery, or arsenal, that contributed to this dramatic turnaround?" A few people in the blogosphere <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/building-jake-arrieta/">who are much better</a> at explaining these things, <a href="http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2014/7/1/5859526/jake-arrieta-cubs-no-hitter-red-sox-mlb">have taken a stab at this question</a>. In looking purely at the numbers, there are some indications that Arrieta made some significant changes and that his results from 2014 are something he can sustain into the future. The most significant difference you can see in the numbers is his lowered BB/9 rate. From 2010-2013, he walked an average of 4 batters per 9 innings. In 2014, he walked a mere 2.4 per 9. Another standout change is in the rate at which Arrieta induced ground balls. He has always been a ground ball pitcher, but he went from inducing ground balls about 43% of the time, to up around 49% of the time, or an increase of about 14%.<br />
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I took a look at Arrieta's PitchFX numbers (pitch speed) and his fastball averaged 93.4mph last seasons which is very typical of his entire career to this point...so a velocity change doesn't explain the different results. If you look at his pitch selection, however, one very interesting thing comes up. In his 3+ seasons prior to joining the Cubs, he threw his fastball roughly 60-65% of the time. In 2014, that number dropped to 47.5% of the time, and Arrieta added a Cut Fastball to his repertoire. That pitch, in particular, is probably the biggest reason for Arrieta's turnaround (in my opinion). Not only was that pitch worth a staggering 15.0 runs above average (stats courtesy of <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4153&position=P">Fan Graphs</a>), but the addition of a cutter made his regular straight fastball worlds more effective. Arrieta's swinging strike percentage went from being around 7% to north of 10%...this is, in large part, the reason he went from being a guy who had a K/9 around 7, to a guy with a K/9 rate of almost 10.<br />
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So, in summary, Arrieta with the Cubs has been a guy who walks less batters, strikes out more batters, induces more ground balls, has an improved arsenal of pitches and looks more like an Ace than a back-of-the-rotation pitcher. Now - having said all of that, I believe the jury is still out on Arrieta. One thing that can't be overlooked is his injury history. He had bone spurs with the Orioles, his Cubs career started out with shoulder discomfort and over the course of his career, he has yet to top 160 innings in a season (at the Major League level). He also only has one good season to hang his hat on. Maybe the cutter will change him forever. Or maybe he reverts back to the guy who walks a lot of guys. Either scenario is possible and until he has another great season, I don't think you say for sure, one way or the other.<br />
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In the ways that matter on the field, Arrieta really is the key to the Lester trade. If Arrieta continues to look like his 2014 self, the Cubs have a potential ace-ace 1 and 2 starter combo. If Arrieta reverts back to his old ways, then the Cubs have Jon Lester and a bunch of mid-rotation guys in Arrieta, Hammel, and someone chosen from the pile of Edwin Jackson, Travis Wood, Tsuyoshi Wada, etc. They also have Kyle Hendricks who is an intriguing young arm and who was impressive following his call-up in July, but who has yet to be tested in a full season at the Major League level.<br />
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A career-turnaround like Arrieta had in 2014 is impressive and the numbers and data provide many reasons to believe he is now a different pitcher. He's also pitching in the National League instead of the American League East which probably doesn't hurt either. For the Cubs' sake, I hope he continues with the success he had in '14. If he can, this Cubs team starts to look a whole lot more fearsome in 2015...World Series material even...Adam Kruegerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12460938738580518447noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-652377080594581288.post-78442069082202183662014-12-09T15:44:00.001-05:002014-12-09T15:44:26.701-05:00The Twins Front Office: More of the SameI'll admit, when it comes to the White Sox, I have nothing good to say. I will never have anything good to say. I was living in the Chicago area on October 26th, 2005 and it was one of the most depressing days of my life. Watching them land both David Robertson and Jeff Samardzija in the past few days has brought my blood to a near boil when it comes to the Twins. Look, I get it, the Twins aren't going to be a contender this coming season, but there are moves that they could be making in free-agency NOW that would bring a contender back to Minnesota sooner rather than later. Instead, they are essentially sitting on the sidelines and waiting/hoping that their current crop of young talent will put it all together in 2016 and beyond. They are wasting opportunities that are out there now.<br />
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Let's look at some of the recent free-agent signings and trades that have happened.<br />
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<b>Jeff Samardzija (SP)</b><br />
The White Sox received Samardzija from the Oakland As for Marcus Semien (SS), Chris Bassitt (potential SP or long reliever) and a PTBNL. Both Semien and Bassitt are pretty decent prospects and the White Sox will only control Samardzija for one year, but still - that is relatively little to give up for a #2 starter like Samardzija. There is this perception that top-flight starters are expensive, but this is a case where I feel the White Sox didn't have to give up much to get one. Samardzija gives the White Sox a potent 1-2-3 in their rotation (along with Chris Sale and Jose Quintana) and along with the acquisition of David Robertson (FA RP), makes them look a whole lot better on paper than they did just a few weeks ago. I think they overpaid for Robertson (4-yrs, $46M) but that's not the point. The point is that the White Sox made themselves relevant and didn't have to make a bunch of moves to do so.<br />
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<b>Brandon Moss (OF and 1B)</b><br />
The Indians traded a no-name Double-A infielder (Joe Wendle) and landed Moss, who has the chance to be a really nice fit with the Indians. The best thing for both parties is probably that it gets him out of Oakland and the Oakland Coliseum, where he was terrible at the plate. In 70 games at Oakland last year, his triple-slash was .197/.299/.404 and in 77 games on the road it was .265/.364/.467. This is another example of a team that spent very little to get something decent in return. Moss is under team control until 2017 and will add potency to an offense that is already trending up. As for the Twins - Moss doesn't really address any of their needs as the Twins are already log-jammed at 1B and in the Outfield.<br />
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<b>Josh Donaldson (3B)</b><br />
Donaldson was traded from the Oakland As to the Blue Jays for Brett Lawrie, Kendall Graveman and Sean Nolin. This trade doesn't make a whole lot of sense, but there had been some mention of Donaldson <a href="http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2014/12/03/billy-boy-the-josh-donaldson-trade-was-reportedly-sparked-by-an-argument-with-billy-beane/">not seeing eye-to-eye with Billy Beane</a> so maybe there is more to this story. Donaldson has been one of the top 3rd basemen in baseball over the last two seasons whereas as Brett Lawie has been oft-injured and inconsistent so far in his career. Both players have 4-years of team control left and Billy Beane is a well-respected GM, so we'll give the benefit of the doubt to him for making this move. From the Twins standpoint, again, this wouldn't have made much sense for them. If you believe Miguel Sano is your future at 3B and that Sano is close to assuming that role, then there is no need for a guy like Donaldson. And besides, that's a lot to give up in a trade, even for a guy like Donaldson.<br />
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<b>Yasmany Tomas (OF, possibly 3B)</b><br />
This Cuban outfielder received a lot of hype prior to his signing and <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/11/sports/baseball/the-cuban-pipeline-jose-abreu-today-yasmani-tomas-tomorrow.html?_r=0">has been compared to Jose Abreu</a>, last year's ROY in the American League. A lot of teams were interested in Tomas, but it was the Diamondbacks that ultimately won out, landing Tomas on a 6-year, $68.5MM deal. This one, like the Samardzija deal, really sticks in my craw. To me, landing this guy would have been a great move for the Twins. Granted, it would further muddle their outfield situation, but if they had taken the $10.5MM they are going to pay Hunter this season and instead, spent that money on Tomas, I would feel a whole lot better. Tomas has great potential and if he's anything like Abreu, that contract is going to be a STEAL. In my mind, the International market is a great place for the Twins. Unfortunately they were burned in their most public International move when they signed Nishioka and he turned out to be an epic bust. I don't know if they are just scared to sign International players or what, but the recent crop of International players has been pretty impressive with the likes of Abreu, Iwakuma, Cespedes, Puig, and Darvish (to name a few). Just imagine an outfield of Buxton, Tomas and Arcia for the next 5+ seasons...sounds pretty good doesn't it?<br />
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<b>Andrew Miller (RP)</b><br />
Miller signed with the Yankees as a free-agent on a 4-year, $36MM contract. I don't have much commentary on this trade. If there is one thing that Twins FO has been competent at in recent years, it is signing relievers. The Twins don't need a closer and 4-year contracts for relievers seem like a bad idea to me. Miller wasn't going to sign for less than a 4-year deal and it was reported that he had a 4-year, $40MM offer from the Astros in the case that the Yankees decided to pass.<br />
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<b>Nick Markakis (OF)</b><br />
Markakis signed a 4-year, $44MM deal with the Atlanta Braves. Again, not much commentary here. Markakis has been up and down over the past few years and while he seems to have some value in the field (Gold Glove winner in 2014), his hitting has been inconsistent and signing him wouldn't have necessarily been that much of an upgrade in the outfield for the Twins. With that being said, spending that $10.5MM on the 31-year-old Markakis could have made a lot more sense than spending it on Hunter. I have to keep reminding myself that Hunter is just a one-year thing.<br />
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**Markakis' battery-mate Nelson Cruz also signed a 4-year deal this off-season with the Mariners for $57MM. The same comments that I have about Markakis apply to that deal. Baltimore got one heck of a season out of Cruz for only $8MM.<br />
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<b>Jason Heyward (OF) / Shelby Miller (SP)</b><br />
This was definitely the blockbuster trade of the off-season so far. As much as I would love for the Twins to get either of these players...I don't think the Twins would have had anything to offer either the Braves or the Cardinals that would have come close to the likes of Heyward and Miller. The deal was great for the Braves in the sense that Miller is under team control until 2018. For the Cards, they get an excellent outfielder for at least this next season and could be fixing to sign Heyward to a long-term deal. They also received Jordan Walden from the Braves who is a pretty good set-up man.<br />
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<br />
Those are just a handful of the recent trades and signings in baseball. There had been a boatload of other far less sexy acquisitions. The only two that really bother me as a Twins fan are the Samardzija and Tomas deals. There are still a number of intriguing free-agents that the Twins could potentially be in on including: Brandon Beachy, Ervin Santana, Justin Masterson (probably not), Brett Anderson, Luke Gregorson, Josh Johnson, <strike>Francisco Liriano</strike>, Jed Lowrie, Brandon McCarthy, Jake Peavy, Johan Santana (?), Max Scherzer, Ryan Vogelson, Edison Volquez, and Rickie Weeks. Hey - Delmon Young is still available too!Adam Kruegerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12460938738580518447noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-652377080594581288.post-2899691321462116882014-12-03T14:10:00.002-05:002014-12-03T14:10:27.799-05:00Torii Hunter: Then and NowWell, well, well...look who's back. As has been widely reported at this point, Torii Hunter has signed a 1-year, $10.5MM contract with the Twins for the 2015 season. I have mixed feelings about it. On the one hand, I think there is some good value there is he provides some solid, veteran leadership for this young up-and-coming team that the Twins have put together. On the other hand, I don't understand the front-office's obsession with former Twins players. Hunter is one of the first players they've brought back, but the coaching staff is replete with former Twins and I've heard rumors out there that the Twins are interested in potentially bringing back Liriano. Maybe my fears about the nepotism of the front-office are unfounded. Only time will tell I suppose.<br />
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I thought it would be fun to look at Torii Hunter from a 'then and now' perspective. Hunter spent 9 seasons with the Twins before leaving via free-agency to join the Angels and then after 5 seasons there he left and joined the Tigers for the past 2 seasons. When Hunter left the Twins he was a 31-year-old veteran center-fielder who had been a consistent performer on a playoff team. Now he is a 39-year-old corner-outfielder who is solidly in the twilight of his career.<br />
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Here is an <i>average season</i> for Hunter during his 9 seasons with the Twins:<br />
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136 games played<br />
.271/.324/.469<br />
75 Runs<br />
21 HRs<br />
79 RBI<br />
14 SBs<br />
Averaged about 3.0 WAR per season<br />
7 Gold Glove Seasons <br />
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Here is an <i>average season</i> for Hunter during his 7 seasons away from the Twins:<br />
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143 games played<br />
.289/.345/.460<br />
80 Runs<br />
20 HRs<br />
86 RBI<br />
10 SBs<br />
Averaged 3.3 WAR per season<br />
2 Gold Glove Seasons<br />
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In looking at the numbers, I'm actually impressed with Hunter's consistency at the plate. He has been a very offensively consistent player throughout his career and even over the past few seasons, he has stayed mostly healthy (has played at least 140gms each of the last five seasons) and while there has been a slight drop off in his overall power, he has been a consistent producer.<br />
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I think the one caveat we should put here is that he has played in the middle of some pretty powerhouse lineups. Last season, Hunter was primarily either a 2-hole or a 5-hole hitter with the Tigers. In 2013, Hunter was almost exclusively a 2-hole hitter. This means that for at least the last two seasons, he was hitting directly in front of one of the most feared hitters in baseball in Miguel Cabrera, who has been the 3-hole hitter for the Tigers for the past two years. Last season, the Tigers also had V-Mart hitting 4th. That is one heck of a 2-3-4 and is substantially better than what the Twins will have when Hunter dons the Twins uniform this coming season. I should also mention that Hunter had Ian Kinsler hitting in front of him in the lead-off spot...not too shabby there either. At best, the Twins will have a 2-3-4 of Hunter, Mauer and Arcia/Vargas or some combination thereof. It will be interesting to see what kind of numbers Hunter can put up in the less potent lineup that he will now be a part of.<br />
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Now let's talk about defense. When Hunter was with the Twins, he was a human highlight reel, regularly making spectacular plays in center field and <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dcQ5De9ZcZc&safe=active">occasionally robbing Barry Bonds of HRs</a> in the All-Star game. Using defensive metrics that have been created since Hunter was a Twin, let's take a look at <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=cf&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=y&type=0&season=2007&month=0&season1=2002&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0">Hunter's defense from 2002 to 2007</a> (his run of 7 consecutive Gold Gloves in CF for the Twins) as compared to other qualified center fielders over that same period of time.<br />
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6,994 Innings <br />
11.9 UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating) - ranked 9th out of 14 CF (qualified) over the same period of time<br />
2.3 UZR/150 (UZR averaged over 150 games) - ranked 10th of 14 CF over the same period of time<br />
13.5 RngR (Range Runs above Average) - ranked 7th of 14 CFers<br />
-36 TZ (Total Zone in Runs above Average) - ranked 14th out of 14 CFers<br />
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To put that into perspective, here are some of Andruw Jones numbers over that same period:<br />
8,062 Innings <br />
119.6 UZR - ranked 1st out of 14 qualified CFers.<br />
20.5 UZR/150 - ranked 1st out of 14<br />
92.8 RngR - ranked 1st out of 14<br />
98 TZ - ranked 1st out of 14<br />
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For even more comparison, here is Denard Span's numbers in center field for the 5 seasons he was with the Twins:<br />
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3,712 Innings<br />
14.4 UZR<br />
4.9 UZR/150<br />
21.7 RngR<br />
-17 TZ<br />
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Two observations. A) Hunter must have had a flair for the dramatic because his actual defensive metrics are not that spectacular, even amongst other qualified CFers playing during that same period. B) Holy crap Andruw Jones was good.<br />
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Hunter was no slouch in Center, we all know that, but his greatness there may have become a little exaggerated since his departure. Since leaving the Twins, he has also changed positions and is now primarily a Right-fielder. He hasn't been great in right field and last year, he was actually pretty atrocious from a defensive standpoint (-18.3 UZR and -12.3 dWAR). When you look at how Hunter's defense has declined over the past few seasons, it's concerning to think that he will be playing full-time right-field for a team that is already defensively challenged - and in a spacious ballpark no less.<br />
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So what's the best case scenario? For Hunter, part of his value to the Twins lies in his ability to get through to the young players and mentor them as they come up (Hicks, Arcia, Danny Santana to an extent, and Buxton). He knows the "Twins Way" and really has a chance to help the organization from that standpoint. As an actual everyday player...if Hunter performs close to what he has done over the past several seasons, he'll do just fine. Defensively I think he's going to have a hard time in right field, but here's to hoping he can at least competently hold down the role. The Twins are already log jammed at DH so hitting him in that spot is really not an option.<br />
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What the worst-case scenario? There are probably a lot of ways to go with this. He could get hurt in Spring Training and miss the entire season. That would be bad. He could decline significantly from an offense standpoint as a result of playing in a much less potent lineup and, combined with bad outfield defense, become a player with negative value. That would be bad too.<br />
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Overall, I'm happy Hunter is back. I loved him when he was a Twin the first time and he is definitely a fan favorite. Plus, all of those people still running around with Hunter jerseys can now be relevant again. His contract is throw-away money for the Twins and if he plays well, he could be a valuable trade piece at the deadline which could potentially help the Twins to continue to build their farm system. He also provides a solid veteran presence on a young team. All things considered, not a bad move for the Twins. One interesting thing to watch will be what decision the Twins make with Aaron Hicks and/or Oswaldo Arcia. Will Hicks again be given the keys to center field? Will he be relegated to the Minors in favor of playing Santana at Center?Adam Kruegerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12460938738580518447noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-652377080594581288.post-21081424390801301432014-11-17T16:03:00.002-05:002014-11-17T16:03:33.777-05:00The Case for Aaron HicksBefore my last post, it had been since April 2013 since I had written anything about the Twins. I'm honestly in awe of you bloggers out there who have continued to write about this team despite four straight 90+ loss seasons. Not only does that take dedication, it takes a special kind of stamina to keep going despite the product on the field. My hats off to you. The last thing I wrote about was Aaron Hicks who, at the time, was at the beginning of his rookie season and who had a historically bad opening to his Major League career. I would love to say that he turned it around and is now a fixture in center field for the Twins, but we all know that's not true and, in fact, things haven't gotten much better at all. With that being said, I still think Hicks has a chance to be a decent center fielder for the Twins.<br />
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At 25, Hicks is still relatively young, and that may be the biggest thing going for him. For comparison, Carlos Gomez was 26 before he really started to put it together after being traded from the Twins to the Brewers. Torii Hunter was 23 when he played his first full season in the Big Leagues and was 25 before he really hit his stride with the Twins. Curtis Granderson was also 25 when he finally put it all together on the Major League level. Puckett was 24-years-old as a rookie with the Twins in 1984. I'm not saying that Hicks is comparable to Gomez, The Puck, Hunter or Granderson, and in fact, those comparisons are almost laughable. Rather I'm trying to make the point that 25-years-old is not <i>too</i> old and it's premature to say that Hicks' career is doomed. Seven years is a long time for someone to play professional baseball and not "make it" but there are other examples of players who were late bloomers.<br />
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The other thing that Hicks has that is fairly unique at the Major League level (if it can fully translate) is his ability to draw walks. Aside from his stint as a rookie in the Majors, Hicks has always had a decent eye at the plate and owns a career .377 OBP in the Minors. Even this past season, which saw Hicks play in 69 games with the Major League club, Hicks had a 36:56 K:BB ratio and an OPS of .341 (despite a .215 BA). If he could hold a batting average closer to .270-.290 and hit with a little more power (.350-.400 SLG), that would be enough offensive production to make him an every-day center-fielder.<br />
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One thing that has mysteriously disappeared from Hicks' repertoire over the past couple of seasons is his base-stealing abilities. He was never a prolific base-stealer in the Minors, but from Rookie ball up through Double-A, he had double-digit steals every season and topped out with 32 stolen bases (11 CS) in 2012. Since 2012, he has barely utilized that talent, stealing a total of 17 bases between his time in the Majors AND Minors. Some might look at the stats and see that as a good thing given that Hicks' success rate in stealing isn't great (68% between the Majors and Minors), but he's got speed and, with time, can probably be coached to pick his spots better and bring that number closer to 75%, which would be just fine. For a guy who has the potential to be on-base as much as Hicks, re-discovering his ability to steal bases would increase his value greatly.<br />
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So where has Hicks gone wrong? I listen to Gleeman and the Geek fairly regularly and many times on their show/podcast, they have talked about how its quite possible that Hicks' development was actually stunted by the Twins and their mis-handling of Hicks over the past couple of seasons. First there was the move straight from Double-A in 2012, to Twins starting center fielder coming out of Spring Training in 2013. After his disastrous first few months as a rookie, the Twins (Gardenhire) publicly questioned Hicks' effort. Last season, the Twins again publicly questioned Hicks' work ethic and on-field production before demoting him to Triple-A in June (after a DL stint). The whole situation, whether merited or not, reminds me of Kevin Slowey's situation with the Twins a few years ago. For some reason, Hicks seems to have rubbed Twins management the wrong way and they haven't responded very well.<br />
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This coming season will really tell the story of whether Hicks has a future with the Minnesota Twins or not. Buxton is still another season away from the Bigs (at least) and so for the time-being, Hicks has a spot in Center Field. In my mind, there are 3 things he needs to do to prove himself and get back on the right track:<br />
<br />
<b>1.)</b> Bring his overall average and power up. Through 538 PAs in the Majors, Hicks is sporting a .201/.293/.313 triple-slash and that just isn't going to cut it. Those numbers have to closer to .270/.350/.400 to make him a decent center-fielder and probably need to be more like .275/.360/.420 to make him worth a look at a corner-outfield position. This is all much easier said than done, but at the end of the day, without better production at the plate, it won't matter what other things he does.<br />
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<b>2.)</b> Make it so the Twins cannot question his work ethic. In my experience, if someone's work ethic is being questioned, chances are they deserve that kind of criticism. Whether someone works hard or not is usually fairly obvious and when it comes to baseball, I imagine it's slap-you-in-the-face obvious. If I'm Hicks, I understand the situation - that this may be my last legitimate shot to be an MLB-regular - and I respond by being the first one in and the last one out. I put in the work and make it obvious that I'm committed to getting better. Even if the results don't follow, you will impress management and they won't have the grounds to question your effort publicly. I obviously don't know Hicks personally and maybe he already has an excellent work ethic, but sometimes you have to make an effort to make it obvious. You've got a new manager now and so, in a sense, you have a clean(ish) slate. Take advantage.<br />
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<b>3.)</b> Forget the past. I have no idea how Hicks feels about how the Twins have handled his development but I wouldn't be surprised if he felt a little slighted. Start fresh this year. Take advantage of having Paul Molitor around day-in and day-out. Channel the Hicks from the Minor Leagues who use to draw walks at a 13-14% clip. Be aggressive on the base paths. Embrace the fact that he is a ground-ball and line-drive hitter (74.5% of his batted balls last year were were either GBs or LDs) who is never going to hit for a lot of power. His potential lies in his ability to get on-base.<br />
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It's highly possible that Hicks will never become the center-fielder that the Twins once thought he could be. So far, Hicks' off-season isn't going to well from a baseball standpoint. He was released from his Venezuelan League team just a few days ago after hitting a 2-for-21 slump. I heard the rumors last week that the Twins might be interested in bringing Torii Hunter back. I would be really curious to see how having Hunter around might help Hicks. I doubt it will happen but it's an interested "what if". One thing is clear, if Hicks doesn't find a way to produce more at the plate then he likely won't stick around with the Twins much longer.Adam Kruegerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12460938738580518447noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-652377080594581288.post-48179082118584526072014-11-14T09:33:00.000-05:002014-11-14T11:32:11.843-05:00A Small Market Response<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;">Disclaimer: I am more of a football guy.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Now, having said that, I am a passionate
Twins fan who lives in the heart of Hawk Harrelson Country™ and that fact has
only increased my love for the Twins.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>While the past four years have been tough I take solace in the White Sox
sucking too…</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;">I don’t have MLB Extra Innings, I went to precisely two MLB
games last year (both Cubs games), I would rather attend the local Low “A” game
than commute to The Northside, and I struggle to recite the past five World
Series champions (only half kidding).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>However, I religiously check my “Batter’s Box” app every night and every
morning during baseball season to check the Twins box score and
highlights.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I believe I know a fair
amount about the Twins, not as much as Adam, but I feel I can hold my own.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It is because of this knowledge I am
apprehensive about the Twins going forward. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>So, here it goes… my response to Adam’s
Royals and Twins small-market formula.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;">Yes, it is well documented; the Twins have a consensus top
five farm system.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They play in a
terrible division.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They are in a
honeymoon period with a new manager.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The
stars are aligning.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>My problem, nothing
has changed in the one spot that matters the most, the front office.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The fact that Bill Smith still has a job
(albeit a made up one) is surprising and associating Terry Ryan with success,
at this point, is kind of laughable.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The
Twins seem to be successful in spite of management not because of it.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Looking back at the <a href="http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/transactions/_/name/min/year/2011/minnesota-twins"><span style="color: blue;">ESPN
Transaction page </span></a>you can see what the Twins have done.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>For the sake of time and word count I only
went back to 2010.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Since 2010, the Twins
do not have a lot of “winners”.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Glen
Perkins, Phil Hughes, initial signing of Josh Willingham, Kurt Suzuki all seem
like winners with Hughes being a steal.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>But a quick rundown of the losers is pretty amazing.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Jason Bartlett, Jason Kubel, Ricky Nolasco, Carl
Pavano resigning, Matt Capps trade AND resigning, Mike Pelfrey, Kevin Correia,
Letting Hardy go, letting Vance Worley go, and the granddaddy of them all… <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/n/nishits01-bat.shtml"><span style="color: blue;">Tsuyoshi</span></a>
<a href="http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/sports/mlb/twins/story/2012/09/28/twins-infielder-nishioka-leaves-3-million-on-table-apologizes-for-poor-play/57851156/1"><span style="color: blue;">Nishioka</span></a>.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I am sure I am missing some on both sides and
I realize some are minor signings but the fact that the front office even tried
to fleece the fans is annoying and par for the course.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The jury is still out on the Denard Span and
Ben Revere trades but by trading both the Twins left a void in centerfield that
Aaron Hicks hasn’t been able to fill.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>That blunder has helped propagate one of the <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=of&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=0&type=1&season=2014&month=0&season1=2014&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=22,dhttp://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=of&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=0&type=1&season=2014&month=0&season1=2014&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=22,d"><span style="color: blue;">worst
defensive outfields</span></a> in the league.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>An outfield which plays its home games in the pitcher friendly Target
Field.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I think this furthers the point;
they seemed to have lucked into Byron Buxton fitting a huge need, not planned
for it.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;">To their credit, the Twins have seemed to pivot towards
“toolsy”, high upside, position players and power arms in the draft and that
has helped position them for a possible run at the division in a few
years.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>However, associating the drafting
profile and the 40-man roster management with a blueprint or anything similar
to other organizations… I just don’t see it.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;">And lastly, for a team that moved into a tax payer funded
new stadium six years ago and then almost immediately imploded, it is annoying
to see Terry Ryan <a href="http://www.startribune.com/sports/twins/279084571.html?page=all&prepage=1&c=y#continue"><span style="color: blue;">publicly
state</span></a> he is comfortable with where the payroll stands.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>There has to be a middle ground between going
after Jon Lester or signing Kevin Correia (like Phil Hughes contracts).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Heck, the 2015 opening day roster doesn’t even have that many “holes”
they need to fill.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They are set at 1b,
2b, SS (Santana), DH, C, RF with placeholders at 3b and CF.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The Twins have the money for a few, targeted,
middle to upper tier free agent signings and the fans have been more than
patient.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Based on MLB Trade Rumors 2015 <a href="http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/11/2015-payroll-obligations-by-team.html"><span style="color: blue;">payroll
estimate</span></a>, they are projected to be 35% below their high water mark and 13%
below 2014’s opening day number.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>No one
goes into business to lose money, I am not asking for that, but the Pohlad’s certainly didn’t have e<span style="font-family: inherit;">nough to
buy the Twins by being bad at business.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>That
is why I have a hard time believing there is no margin at the bottom line to
expand the payroll.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It seems to me the model, if you have been terrible for a long stretch is be patient, develop talent, and selectively sign free agents (a la the Cubs). This all is based on the assumption you are correctly identifying talent which is an entirely different post.</span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">I hold out hope that Paul Mol<span style="font-family: inherit;">itor will continue <span style="font-family: inherit;">his more stat<span style="font-family: inherit;"> fr<span style="font-family: inherit;">ie<span style="font-family: inherit;">ndly way<span style="font-family: inherit;">s and for a front office that decide<span style="font-family: inherit;">s to fin<span style="font-family: inherit;">d a middle ground between bring the Dodgers and well...<span style="font-family: inherit;"> the Twins. I might even settle for a healthy Sano and Buxton. Here's to <span style="font-family: inherit;">20<span style="font-family: inherit;">15<span style="font-family: inherit;">.</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span> </span></span></div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14915459272867324839noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-652377080594581288.post-5005123469966723792014-11-12T11:59:00.001-05:002014-11-12T11:59:10.689-05:00Emulating Success: The Royals, Twins and the Small-Market Formula<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
I'll start off with a house-keeping
item...I'd like to officially welcome <a href="https://twitter.com/bscjd31">Bryan Chapman</a> as a writer to this blog.
Bryan grew up in Kansas City and has been a Royals fan throughout his life.
He'll be writing about mostly Royals and Cubs-related things (he’s a Cubs
season-ticket holder) as well as other general baseball topics as we try to get
this blog rolling again. We might have a 3rd writer coming on soon (another Twins
fan) but Bryan and I are still in the process of applying peer-pressure so
we'll let you know what happens.</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
Since this blog is now a
Twins/Royals blog, I thought I would start by comparing the two teams and
seeing if my beloved Twins might share some things in common with the Royals.
Major League Baseball is very much a league of copycats and I think, in many
ways, the Twins are following a very similar path to success that the Royals
have just completed. The Royals and Dayton Moore, it can be argued, were simply following a formula for small-market MLB success that was pioneered by the Marlins and Rays (and the Twins, to an extent).</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
In 1993 the Florida Marlins were
created as part of an expansion move by Major League Baseball. Their first 4
seasons were all losing seasons and then suddenly, in 1997, the Marlins broke
through and won it all. After winning the 1997 World Series, they immediately
dismantled the team, lost 108 games in 1998 and started building again. All
told, they had 5 straight losing seasons before winning it all again in 2003.
They never spent a lot of money and created a model based on building from
within and then adding key free agent pieces when the homegrown talent started
to appear at the Major League level. The Tampa Bay Rays have a very similar
story - they were an expansion franchise in 1998, and lost 90+ games for 10
straight seasons before breaking through and making it to the World Series in
2007 (which they lost). The Marlins and the Rays were the modern blueprint of
building via the Draft and then making small free agency splashes when the time
was right.</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
The Royals are a much more storied
franchise than either the Marlins or the Rays - they were an expansion team in
1969 and had a stretch from the mid-70s to the mid-80s where they were
perennial contenders. From 1975 to 1985, they finished either 1st or 2nd in
their division in 10 out of 11 seasons. The rest of the story has been repeated
ad nauseam over the past 6 weeks as the Royals finally broke a 29-year stretch
of non-playoff baseball, went on a somewhat miraculous run through the
playoffs, and made it all the way to the World Series. The story, however,
starts with a change at the GM position in 2006 - when the Royals brought
Dayton Moore in to help turn the franchise around.</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
Dayton Moore cut his teeth as a
scout for the Atlanta Braves and eventually worked his way up to Director of
Player Personnel Development before leaving the Braves for the GM post with the
Royals. Since 2006, Moore has become been quite a controversial figure among
Royals fans and is seen as a middle-of-the-road GM around the rest of baseball.
He doesn't command the respect of a Billy Beane or Theo Epstein as many of his
moves over the past several years have been questioned, but he's also put
together a fairly young and very exciting team that could be a contender for several
years. He's done it using the blueprint that the Marlins and Rays forged in the
late-90s and early 2000s. The primary difference between him and his
predecessor in Kansas City, Allard Baird, has been in their approach to player
development. I wasn't a rabid baseball fan in the early-2000s when Baird was
around, but in looking at the moves he made, it appears he viewed young talent
as trading pieces to land bigger groups of young-ish talent, most notably
trading away budding stars like Damon and Beltran in multi-team, multi-player
deals.</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
Moore inherited a team that had
some decent pieces in the farm system including Alex Gordon and Billy Butler
and they had a mentally-shaky Zack Greinke who was just getting started in the
Majors. Moore immediately set about stocking the shelves of the farm system and
within 3 years he had a farm system full of players that are now on the Major
League roster: Greg Holland (2007), Danny Duffy (2007), Mike Moustakas (2007),
Eric Hosmer (2008), Yordano Ventura (International Signing 2008), Salvador
Perez (International signing 2006), Jarrod Dyson (2006) and Wil Myers (2009).
In 2009, he traded away Greinke and received Lorenzo Cain, Alcides Escobar,
Jeremy Jeffress, and Jake Odorizzi. As some of that talent started to reach the
Majors, Moore started to add free agents here and there without losing many of
the pieces that the Royals had developed. He traded away Myers and Odorizzi to
land James "Big Game" Shields and Wade Davis (both integral cogs of
the 2014 team) and also added Norichika Aoki, Jeremy Guthrie and Omar Infante. He
followed the recipe perfectly – building from within and then adding the
missing pieces via trades and free-agency when the window started to open. </div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
So where do the Twins fit into all
of this and, if they are indeed following the same formula, where are they in
the process?</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
I mentioned in my opening that the Twins were one of those teams that, along with the Marlins and Rays, helped to blaze a path to winning baseball for small-market teams. All of us remember 2002-2010 and how great it was to see the Twins become a year-in, year-out contender. That success, however, was built on a pile of losing seasons which allowed the Twins to gather some blue-chip prospects like Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, Johan Santana, Torii Hunter, and Michael Cuddyer. The Twins brass ended up being more lucky than skilled as all of those aforementioned players arrived in the Majors at about the same time, setting the stage for several years of winning baseball in Minnesota.</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
Since 2010, this team has been one of the worst in baseball –
there are no two ways about it. The losing, however, hasn’t been without its
benefits as the Twins have been able to build a fairly powerhouse farm system
that features some of the best prospects in baseball. Byron Buxton and Miguel
Sano are at the top of the class, but the Twins have a bevy of talent in the
middle rungs of the organization depth chart that could be sniffing the Majors
within 1-3 years. The Twins had five of <a href="http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/midseason-top-50-injury-cant-knock-buxton-1/">Baseball
America’s Midseason Top 50 Prospects</a> and have the top ranked farm system in
the Majors <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=22906">according
to Baseball Prospectus</a>. The Twins are essentially in the same position the
Royals were about 5 years ago…a stable full of talent that they are waiting
for.</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
It seems obvious that the Twins are
at least attempting to follow the template for success that has been utilized
by other similar small market teams. In fact, it could be argued that if you,
as a small-market team owner, are not willing to spend a lot of money on
payroll, your only real chance to compete is using the model that was pioneered
by the Marlins and Rays. The Twins have taken advantage of their losing ways by
filling their Minor League talent pipeline. Over the last few seasons, they
have also <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/american-league/minnesota-twins/">cut
their payroll down quite a bit</a>, from $113MM in 2011 to $85.5MM in 2014 (and
even less in 2015), which should give them some room to dabble in free-agency
once some of these prospects start to burst onto the scene. It remains to be
seen whether the Twins will actually open up the pocket book when the time
comes, but that’s another blog post altogether.</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
The question for the Twins, and
that the Royals had <a href="http://www.kansascity.com/sports/mlb/kansas-city-royals/article473212/Rany-Jazayerli-The-Royals%E2%80%99-inability-to-develop-players-is-reason-they%E2%80%99re-struggling.html">even
as recently as earlier this year</a> is, “will this all pan out?” Sano missed
most of this past season after undergoing Tommy John surgery. Buxton hasn’t
been able to stay healthy at all and had recent surgery that ended his Arizona
Fall League season. Some of the talent that we have started to see with the
Major League club, most notably Trevor May, has struggled mightily. Other
unexpected call-ups have been quite impressive (Danny Santana, Kennys Vargas).
There are some young arms in the system that seem to hold a lot of promise but
that are still in Single-A and Double-A (Jose Berrios and Kohl Stewart). There are
some Triple-A arms that have lost some of the luster as time has passed (the
aforementioned May and his former battery-mate Alex Meyer). In summary, there
are a lot of question marks and no quick answers. This team, at a minimum, is
still at least two years away from being competitive and probably at least 3-4
years away from being a playoff contender. That seems like a long time but when
this is the model you’re following, patience (and some luck) is necessary.</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
One thing that will be interesting
to watch with the Royals going forward is seeing how they handle the free
agency of their own players. Many of their core players (Hosmer, Moustakas, Cain,
Holland) are still under team control for a few years, but James Shields and
Billy Butler are free agents this off-season and Alex Gordon will be a
free-agent next season. Will the Royals try and re-sign either Butler or
Shields? Will they pony-up to keep some of these other core players on the
team, or will they try and trade them away to see what they can get to keep
their farm system stocked? It’s the ultimate dilemma in the small-market
success formula. Spend to try and keep the winning window open awhile longer, or
trade away valuable pieces for more young talent and another chance to catch
lightening in a bottle…</div>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Bullet 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Bullet 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Bullet 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Bullet 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Number 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Number 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Number 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Number 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="10" QFormat="true" Name="Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Closing"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Signature"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="Default Paragraph Font"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text Indent"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Message Header"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="11" QFormat="true" Name="Subtitle"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Salutation"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Date"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text First Indent"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text First Indent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Note Heading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text Indent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text Indent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Block Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Hyperlink"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="FollowedHyperlink"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="22" QFormat="true" Name="Strong"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="20" QFormat="true" Name="Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Document Map"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Plain Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="E-mail Signature"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Top of Form"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Bottom of Form"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Normal (Web)"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Acronym"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Address"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Cite"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Code"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Definition"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Keyboard"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Preformatted"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Sample"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Typewriter"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Variable"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Normal Table"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="annotation subject"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="No List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Contemporary"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Elegant"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Professional"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Subtle 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Subtle 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Balloon Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="59" Name="Table Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Theme"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" Name="Placeholder Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" QFormat="true" Name="No Spacing"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" Name="Revision"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="34" QFormat="true"
Name="List Paragraph"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="29" QFormat="true" Name="Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="30" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="19" QFormat="true"
Name="Subtle Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="21" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="31" QFormat="true"
Name="Subtle Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="32" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="33" QFormat="true" Name="Book Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="37" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="Bibliography"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" QFormat="true" Name="TOC Heading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="41" Name="Plain Table 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="42" Name="Plain Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="43" Name="Plain Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="44" Name="Plain Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="45" Name="Plain Table 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="40" Name="Grid Table Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46" Name="Grid Table 1 Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51" Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52" Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46" Name="List Table 1 Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51" Name="List Table 6 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52" Name="List Table 7 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="List Table 7 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 2"/>
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<![endif]-->Adam Kruegerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12460938738580518447noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-652377080594581288.post-89365255202844688242014-11-05T12:08:00.002-05:002014-11-05T12:10:12.202-05:00Small Ball for All? Not So Fast, My Friend. <br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">During the last week of October,
the national conversation included phrases such as “Gas House Gang” and “small
ball.”<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This was in reference to the
Kansas City Royals’ improbable run to a Game 7 of the World Series, and the
means by which they did so.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The strengths
of the Royals this year was its bullpen, its defense, aggressiveness on the
base paths and the fact that they are tough to strike out. (Not necessarily in
that order.) But do the last two actually matter?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Well, of course the matter on some
level.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But do teams that successfully
steal significantly more bases than the rest win more games?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Do teams that make contact at the plate stand
a better chance to make the playoffs in the Wild-Card era?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Over at Bill James Online, Dave
Fleming has an <a href="http://www.billjamesonline.com/contact_speed_and_the_2014_royals/" target="_blank">interesting piece</a> on the relative importance of “contact,” i.e.,
low strikeout totals and “steals” to the Kansas City Royals season.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It should be noted that Fleming’s piece was
written the night the Royals advanced to the ALCS, so Fleming does not take
into account the performance of the Royals in their sweep of the Orioles, or
the World Series.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Fleming concludes that
while the Royals as a team are in fact a rarity with a low strikeout/high
stolen base combination, in and of itself, such statistics are not good
indicators of regular season success.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Fleming notes that the Royals
struck out at lowest rate in the Majors this year, 985 times, while the MLB
average was 1246.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The Cubs led the
league with 1477 strikeouts.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It turns
out the Royals led the league “contact” in 2012 and 2013 as well, with league
leading strike out totals of 1032 and 1048, respectively.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In short, the 2014 Royals increased their
contact rate in 2014.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Pretty
impressive.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But does it matter?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The Royals won 89 games during the regular
season, and the Cubs won 73 games.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>So
yes, clearly contact-prone teams are more likely to win, right?<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Wrong. According to Fleming, (and
his statistics bear this out) during the Wild-Card era, teams with the lowest
strikeout totals in season have a winning percentage barely above .500, and
that is only due to the amazing Cleveland Indians teams of 1995 and 1996.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In
short, the evidence suggests that a team with a low strikeout rate does not stand
to win more games as a result.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Ok, well, what about the Royals
speed?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>“That’s what speed do,” right?
Win games?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Well, the Royals stole 153
bases this year, while the MLB average was 92.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>But historically, as Fleming points out, the Royals are not
exceptional in this regard.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>During the Wild-Card era,
the Royals are basically middle of the pack when it comes to number of stolen
bases vs. the MLB average.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>For example,
the 2007 Mets stole 200 bases in a year where the MLB average was 97 steals per
team.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Remember the 2007 Mets?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Me neither. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">But here’s where Fleming’s analysis
gets interesting (from a Royals fan perspective).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Fleming notes that the 2014 Royals <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">are</i> historic, in that no team in the Wild-Card
era “has managed to avoid strikeouts and steal bases to the degree that the 2014
Royals have.”<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And, the top eight teams
with the <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">highest</i> relative difference
(compared to the MLB average) on strikeouts and stolen basis averaged 91 wins a
season, with the 2014 Royals leading the way.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">In sum, I take from Fleming’s piece
that being a high-contact/high stolen base team is not a winning strategy in
and of itself.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>On average, teams which
have excelled in these categories over the last 20 year play a little better
than .500 ball, but some lose 90 games.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>That said, Fleming’s piece suggests that after a certain point, however,
it <em>can </em>matter.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If a team’s combined
relative difference in these categories is exceptional, then perhaps it is
reasonable to expect something north of 85 wins.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Based on the above, I’ll
paraphrase the great James Carville: It’s (likely) the bullpen, stupid.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
Bryan Chapmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08831358447954809345noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-652377080594581288.post-53516529709106806872014-11-03T09:27:00.000-05:002014-11-03T09:32:16.973-05:00That's What Speed (Almost) Do<div>
<span class="aBn" data-term="goog_1254844502" tabindex="0"><span class="aQJ"><i>This post was written by my good friend Bryan who is a very avid Royals fan. He approached me last week after the World Series concluded and his perspective on the 9th inning of last week's Game 7 is unique. Without further ado...</i></span></span><br />
<br />
<span class="aBn" data-term="goog_1254844502" tabindex="0"><span class="aQJ"><i> </i> </span></span></div>
<div>
</div>
<div>
<span class="aBn" data-term="goog_1254844502" tabindex="0"><span class="aQJ">By: Bryan Chapman (you can follow him on twitter <a href="https://twitter.com/bscjd31">@bscjd31</a>)</span></span></div>
<div>
<span class="aBn" data-term="goog_1254844502" tabindex="0"><span class="aQJ">"Last Wednesday</span></span>
night the Kansas City Royals lost game seven of the World Series to the
San Francisco Giants 3-2. If you are reading this blog, you already
know that Madison Bumgarner took the opportunity that night to vault
from merely "dominant postseason pitcher" to perhaps "the best
postseason pitcher ever." Bumgarner pitched five scoreless (and almost
flawless) innings <span class="aBn" data-term="goog_1254844503" tabindex="0"><span class="aQJ">Wednesday</span></span>
night after throwing 117 pitches the previous Sunday night, which
resulted in a complete game shutout. For some perspective, Bumgarner
pitched over 21 innings in the World Series, and the rest of the Giants'
starting rotation combined pitched 17. Despite throwing 21 innings,
Bumgarner's World Series ERA ended up less than 0.50. Wow. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
But
while Bumgarner appeared to be cruising towards his third World Series
ring in five years, a funny thing happened with two outs in the bottom
of the ninth inning. Alex Gordon lined what appeared to be a routine
single to centerfield off of Bumgarner, but Gregor Blanco of the Giants
misplayed the bounce in centerfield, and the ball rolled all the way to
the fence. Gordon ended up on third with a standup triple. Suddenly,
the Royals were 90 feet away from a startling and improbable comeback.
Some, like Nate Silver at the <span class="aBn" data-term="goog_1254844504" tabindex="0"><span class="aQJ">Five-Thirty</span></span>
Eight maintain that Gordon should have tried to score, given the small
chance the next batter would have also safely reached base off of
Bumgarner. Others, like Joe Posnanski of NBC Sports, think Gordon would
have been out by a ten feet or more. It's a counterfactual and we'll
never know. What we do know is that the next batter, Royals catcher
Salvador Perez, insisted on swinging at multiple pitches out of the
strike zone, ending his at bat with a pop-out to Giants third baseman
Pablo Sandoval in foul territory ending not only the game, but the World
Series and my beloved Royals' dream season. Such is life.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
If
baseball is no longer the national pastime, second guessing Royals
manager Ned Yost may have taken its place. Yost's love of bunting,
stolen bases constant lineup maneuvers have frustrated almost all Royals
fans at some point, and left Bill Simmons of Grantland, the notorious
Red Sox homer to quip last week, "If Ned Yost managed the 2004 Red Sox,
I'd be in an insane asylum right now." Overall, Yost did an okay job in
the World Series, save for a couple of tardy pitching changes and a
senseless double switch in San Francisco. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Despite
an above average managing job in October, Yost's failure to recognize
the opportunity to pinch-run for Alex Gordon in the bottom of the ninth
in game seven warrants discussion, as I've seen virtually none in all of
the Kansas City postmortems. In a nutshell, Yost should have pinch-run
Terrance Gore (or even Jarrod Dyson) for Gordon in the bottom of the
ninth in order to give the Royals the best chance of scoring the tying
run. Both Gore and Dyson have blazing speed; with Gore's being unlike any
other active player in the majors. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Before we
get to the tactical reasons for pinch-running for Gordon, just think
about it more generally: It's the bottom of the ninth, two outs, game
seven of the World Series, down by one with a runner on third. If you
are the team trailing (like the Royals <span class="aBn" data-term="goog_1254844505" tabindex="0"><span class="aQJ">on Wednesday</span></span>)
this is the ultimate "gonzo" situation in baseball. The situation is
so extreme, so unlikely, that even nine year-old boys invoke it whenever
they want an excuse to act irresponsibly during backyard baseball
games. Put simply, the runner on third has to find a way to score, and
Yost, as the Royals manager, had to pull every lever at his disposal to try to
score him. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
So Yost should have pinch-run one
of Kansas City's speedsters for Alex Gordon, preferably Terrance Gore.
Why? To steal home? Not necessarily, although, a legitimate attempt
and close play would immediately be placed on the Mount Rushmore of
unforgettable postseason baseball moments. Add to that Yost's immediate
elevation from "dumbest man in baseball" to "riverboat gambler who I'd
love to play for," one could see why an attempt to steal home is
attractive. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Setting aside the theatrics of a
(likely unsuccessful) attempt to steal home, there are two concrete
reasons why Gore or Dyson should have pinch-run for Gordon in the bottom
of the ninth <span class="aBn" data-term="goog_1254844506" tabindex="0"><span class="aQJ">on Wednesday</span></span>.
First and somewhat obviously, in a passed ball situation, Gore, with
blazing speed, stands a much better chance of scoring than Gordon, who,
while a smart baserunner, has merely "decent" speed. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Second,
and most importantly, Yost should have recognized the opportunity to
break-up Bumgarner's rhythm and to get into the head of the eventual
World Series MVP. Remember, it's a once-in-a-lifetime game situation.
If Yost pulls one of his most reliable offensive and defensive players
out of the game in order to place one of Kansas City's notorious
speedsters 90 feet from home plate in the bottom of the ninth in game
seven, Bumgarner and Giants catcher Buster Posey have to wonder what may
be coming. (This is to say nothing of near earthquake of excitement
that would have shaken Kauffman Stadium had the desperate crowd
witnessed Terrance Gore take his place at third base.) After all, as the
Royals have taught us all, "that's what speed do." </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
If
Bumgarner, as a lefty, is pitching from the stretch, his back is to
third base. With blazing speed leading off of third base in the most
stressful situation the game of baseball has to offer, it is not only
reasonable to think Bumgarner may be slightly distracted, it's more
probable than not. After all, Bumgarner would have to think about the
following: 1) how, if at all, he would attempt to keep the runner close
third; 2) he would have to think about his slide-step and speed to the
plate, given the possibility (however remote) that Gore would try to
steal home; and 3) Bumgarner would have to think about not throwing a
pitch that could result in a passed ball. The last concern is
important, because it very well may result in a pitch that is slightly
more "hittable" than Bumgarner would normally throw. Even if only a
couple of inches off where Posey sets up, that could be the difference
between jamming Perez to pop-out and end the game, and Perez getting
enough of the ball to punch it over the second baseman's head to score
the go-ahead run. In short, blazing speed at third would have forced
Bumgarner to pitch more defensively, even if only a little. Baseball is
a game of inches. Literally. With a visibly gassed Gordon at third,
Bumgarner was able to simply focus on the the batter, and he did.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
Some
may argue that removing Alex Gordon, a gold-glove left fielder with a
solid approach at the plate from game seven of the World Series is
nuts. But that's the wrong way to think about it. Gordon played eight
and two-thirds innings of game seven. If the Royals don't score the
runner on third, there's no more game seven for Alex Gordon to miss.
After all, it's better to face extra innings in game seven with a chance
to win sans Gordon, than to face an off-season of blog posts like this
one."Adam Kruegerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12460938738580518447noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-652377080594581288.post-7403888692125531442013-04-11T15:12:00.000-04:002013-04-11T15:12:13.607-04:00Hindsight 20/20: Aaron HicksIt's easy to second-guess things now right? Aaron Hicks, after lighting things up during Spring Training and landing the starting center-fielder job, is now in about as deep of a funk as a player can have. After last night's game in which Hicks went 0-for-5 with 3 more Ks, there really isn't any direction he can go but up. Wanna see a bad stat line?<br />
<br />
2 hits in 35 ABs<br />
16 strikeouts, 2 walks<br />
.165 OPS<br />
<br />
<br />
To put things into perspective a little bit - Hicks has put 19 baseballs into play so far this season (7 groundballs, 10 flyballs and 2 line drives)...and he's struck out 16 times. According to FanGraphs - Hicks' contact % when he swings at pitches that are in the strike zone is 80.0% and for comparison, Drew Butera had a 89.7% contact rate on pitches in the strike zone during his Twins career (Mauer's lifetime average is 93.2%). When Hicks swings at a pitch that's outside the strike zone, his contact percentage drops to a miserable 55.6%. In over 75% of Aaron Hicks' at-bats this year, he's had a first pitch strike meaning that he's been down 0-1 in most of his at-bats so far this year (7th highest percentage in the Majors right now among qualified hitters).<br />
<br />
I point all this out because what's been most surprising to me about Hicks' at-bats is his lack of plate discipline. This is a guy who had a 3:4 BB/K ratio in the Minors and that showed in his career .379 OBP...he has a good eye at the plate, but he's not using it. Even in spring training, Hicks only struck out 16 times in 22 games.<br />
<br />
Another thing that baffles me is why Ron Gardenhire continues to bat Hicks at the top of the lineup. Why not drop him down to the bottom of the lineup and see if that takes a little of the pressure off of the 23-year-old rookie?? It can't be because of Hicks' speed -- because that is an asset he isn't able to use unless he starts getting on-base a little bit. Hicks leads the Major Leagues in outs-made (34) for crying out loud...giving him an extra at-bat per game isn't even what's best for the team.<br />
<br />
I realize it's easy to say "I told you so" and "hindsight is 20/20" and all that - but really, this is an experiment the Twins should not have embarked on in the first place. Instead of letting Hicks start the year at Triple-A and continue his development, the organization decided to put Hicks in high-pressure situation where the chances of failure were high. As it stands, they've lost a year of contract control on their young center-fielder and he may end up having to go back to Triple-A anyway. I don't know how much longer the Twins coaches and front-office are going to give this kid, but my guess is that it isn't going to be long, especially after reading today that they might be <a href="http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/04/twins-kicking-tires-on-julio-borbon.html">kicking the tires on Julio Bourbon</a> out of the Rangers organization. I get it that sometimes rookies struggle a bit - but there's a difference between struggling and being vastly over-matched and Aaron Hicks falls into the ladder category.Adam Kruegerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12460938738580518447noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-652377080594581288.post-86670027869397094122012-07-02T10:39:00.001-04:002012-07-02T10:39:15.213-04:00A .500 Team?After a pretty good weekend which saw the hometown club win 3 out of 4 against divisional rival Kansas City, the Twins are now 33-45 and 8.5 games behind the division-leading Chicago White Sox. The Twins' record still doesn't look pretty, but I'm here to tell you that it's not as bad as it looks. Since May 1st, the Twins have gone 27-29 thanks in large part to an offensive that has been out-producing some pretty horrible starting pitching.<br />
<br />
Aside from <b><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mauerjo01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Joe Mauer</a></b>, the offensive production has come from a couple of unexpected performers in the likes of Josh "Hammer" Willingham and Trevor "Plouffda" Plouffe who both seem to have made it their mission to lead the team in homeruns this year. In yesterday's game against KC, both Willingham and Plouffe went deep and Trevor managed to have the upper hand at the end of the day, hitting two bombs in a 10-8 Twins' win. On the scorecard, Plouffe leads the team in HRs with 18 and Willingham is one back at 17 (Morneau is a distant 3rd place with 10 homeruns so far this season). In only 59 games so far this season, Plouffe has managed to rack up 31 RBI and 35 Runs and has asserted himself in the middle of what has become a very formidable lineup for the Twins. The 3, 4, 5, and 6 hitters for the Twins are Mauer (.324/.414/.445) and then some combination of Willingham, Morneau, Plouffe and Doumit, all of whom bring some thunder (or at least the potential for it) to the plate with them.<br />
<br />
Getting back to the pitching; after owning an MLB-worst 5.64 team ERA in April, the staff as a whole has been slowly improving. In May the team ERA dropped to 4.96 and in June it dropped again to a mildly respectable 4.33 mark. Twins' starters have improved quite a bit as well. After posting a miserable 6.75 ERA in April, they posted a 5.74 mark in May and improved again in June with a 5.09 ERA collectively. A 5.00+ ERA is still pretty brutal, but at least they are moving in the right direction. It's possible that the Twins could get <b><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/pavanca01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Carl Pavano</a></b> back towards the middle or end of this month and I have a feeling that <b><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/blackni01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Nick Blackburn</a></b> will begin to figure out his issues and start to pitch better as well. It would be hard to get much worse than his current 7.74 ERA...<br />
<br />
With 4 teams ahead of them in the standings, it's <strike>impossible</strike> HIGHLY unlikely that the Twins will be contending for anything come September, but I think that over their past 50+ games, the Twins have shown that they are at least capable of competing on a night-in, night-out basis. It's been good to see some of the youngsters like Plouffe, <b><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/diamosc01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Scott Diamond</a></b>, Cole DeVries and <b><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/reverbe01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Ben Revere</a></b> step up. The result has been much more watchable than last year's 99-loss team and gives me a little more hope going forward. The only thing I hope this recent success doesn't lead to is hesitation on the part of the front-office to make the trades they need to make. Despite being "only" 8.5 games back in the standings, the Twins still need to be sellers and with players like Span, Willingham, and Liriano performing well of late, the team has some decent trade-bait to dangle out there.Adam Kruegerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12460938738580518447noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-652377080594581288.post-37668018923295687022012-06-05T17:14:00.001-04:002012-06-05T17:14:59.511-04:00Remembering a Good Man: Dark StarI don't know how the news escaped me, but it wasn't until yesterday that I heard of Dark Star's passing. By now I've had time to process it - I've watched the tribute videos out there, listened to the interviews with people who knew him, and taken time to remember what I liked so much about Dark Star's evening radio program on WCCO back in the day.<br />
<br />
My tribute needs a little bit of back story. When I was growing up, my parents decided (rightfully so) that TV had little to offer young children...so they got rid of it. From the time I was 9 or 10 years old, there was no functional TV in the house. So what did I do? I bought myself a little handheld radio and immediately fell in love with the AM dial. It took me no time at all to find The Good Neighbor (WCCO for those of you not familiar with MN radio) which, at the time, was a mostly-sports/news station. They were the home of the Twins, they had radio personalities like Steve Cannon, Dark Star, Tim Russell, Dave Lee (still there), and everyone's favorite weatherman, Mike Lynch. My bedtime as a kid was usually sometime between 7pm and 8pm which afforded me a good amount of time to listen to Dark Star's show.<br />
<br />
I liked his irreverence, I liked his optimistic attitude, I liked the way he joked around with everyone. I admired the way he handled people who didn't like him. I liked that he was respectful of those who disagreed with them. I liked it that he knew when to be serious, but never took himself too seriously. I liked that he was unpredictable. There was no doubt that he was a diehard Twins and Vikings fan. Truth be told, he put me to sleep a lot of nights - not in a bad way - and usually I went to bed smiling.<br />
<br />
In <a href="http://minnesota.cbslocal.com/2012/06/04/colleagues-friends-remember-dark-star/">watching the interviews</a> with people who worked closely with Dark, you can tell he was a well liked guy. Paul Allen broke down when he was interviewed, Reusse wrote a <a href="http://www.startribune.com/sports/156528165.html">very nice tribute</a> to his fallen friend, hell, even the guy at Canterbury Park was distraught. I guess its in seeing the real emotion in those who knew him that lets me know that his personality wasn't just a radio thing - its a tribute to him that those he knew closely are so affected by his passing. I don't live in Minnesota anymore so I haven't been able to listen to him for awhile, but I will miss tuning in to hear him when I visit. Rest in Peace, Dark Star, and thank you for what you brought to sports talk radio.Adam Kruegerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12460938738580518447noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-652377080594581288.post-25212050207789920532012-05-28T21:19:00.001-04:002012-05-29T09:55:48.102-04:00Seeing the FutureI had the pleasure, this Memorial Day, to take in a Kane County Cougars game here in the Chicagoland area and was pleasantly surprised to find that their opponent today was the Twins' Single-A affiliate Beloit Snappers of the Midwest League. I had nice seats, 3 rows from the field on the 3rd base side and witnessed a donnybrook of a game; a 41-hit, 24-run affair that featured 2 homeruns, 4 errors and a total of 11 different pitchers.<br />
<br />
It was a hot one at Fifth-Third Bank Stadium today (95 degrees) but that didn't scare away the fans which included many families out there enjoying some Minor League Baseball. The wind was blowing straight out and the players came to the park with their good bats. It was 5-4 Snappers by end of the 3rd inning and the two teams played see-saw until the bottom of the 9th when Cougar Orlando Calixte hit a 2-run HR to left field which tied the game up at 9 a piece. The two bullpens then pitched a couple of scoreless innings each before the Snappers blew it wide open in the top of the 12th, plating 6 runs, capped off by a monstrous center-field moonshot off the bat of Miguel Sano, his 12th of the season. I'm telling you, this homerun hit off the top of the scoreboards in center, he absolutely mauled it.<br />
<br />
One cool sidebar from the game: a row in front of us and a few seats down was a kid sitting with his dad. He was wearing a Yankees hat, but as the game went on I noticed that he was rooting for the Snappers. Eventually he and I realized that we were both cheering for the road-team and for the rest of the game I had a cheering buddy. Every time the Snappers would do something good, he would look over and give me a thumbs-up. It was cute. When I left I gave him a high-five and a "Go Twins".<br />
<br />
Getting back to Sano, he was pretty unimpressive for most of the game. Up until his HR in the 12th he was 0-for-6 and committed an error at 3rd. His body type reminds me of Hanley Ramirez. He has a big athletic figure, but he also has speed evidenced in the game by a close play at 1st when he grounded to the shortstop. I knew that he had been slumping of late at the plate so I didn't have a whole lot of expectations but was very happy to see him hit a homerun. A couple of other players that caught my eye were Eddie Rosario (2B) and Adam Pettersen (SS) who went 3-for-7 in the game with a triple, 3 runs and an RBI. He has good energy and though he is small, he has a quick bat and plays a decent shortstop. In looking at his numbers on Baseball-Reference he doesn't have a very impressive resume and lacks any real power, but he's only 23 years old and has good energy. I know that last remark isn't all that informative but hey, I only saw one game.<br />
<br />
Pitching-wise there was nothing all that impressive. Snappers starter Matt Summers pitched pretty well (5IP, 4R, 1ER, 7H, 8K, 1BB) but didn't look overpowering or as dominating as those 8Ks would suggest. His fastball looked to be topping out at about 92mph. After having himself a nice season in Rookie ball last year, he has failed to translate that success into the Single-A level, carrying a 4.21 ERA into the game with a paltry 5.1 K/9 ratio.<br />
<br />
All in all, it was a great time. If you haven't had a chance to see some Minor League baseball, I highly recommend it. It's very family-friendly stuff and it's cool to see players like Sano and Rosario who might make it to the Bigs one day. Kinda like getting a glimpse of the future...or at least the potential that the future may hold.<br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg9q4EJE6GwSbktxu6ogw6OUmAQDrwHdatWgtZVFHQ8vwnSGLbNvnorgg78LlnpTilQx0HkPZgX_wVjXVOeBxYoYFh34XwxW7rGTWLFx9lrqKO8UNZ8Cdd-Tv9ruGXxUMimG6AxMdNx1ME/s1600/Sano.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg9q4EJE6GwSbktxu6ogw6OUmAQDrwHdatWgtZVFHQ8vwnSGLbNvnorgg78LlnpTilQx0HkPZgX_wVjXVOeBxYoYFh34XwxW7rGTWLFx9lrqKO8UNZ8Cdd-Tv9ruGXxUMimG6AxMdNx1ME/s320/Sano.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Sano "The Future" in the foreground, Rosario in the background.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>Adam Kruegerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12460938738580518447noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-652377080594581288.post-36753582096133049632012-05-08T16:40:00.001-04:002012-05-08T16:42:14.775-04:00A History Lesson: Twins Pitching - Draft EditionI was scanning through boxscores this morning, pausing on the boxscore of the Twins' latest defeat and suddenly I had a particular curiosity. After writing yesterday about how an organizational change in philosophy is needed, I thought, "besides the Twins current lot of mediocre pitchers, who else is out there that has come through the Minor League system with the club...what have been their results?" As I compiled the list, with the the help of some of my twitter followers (@KirbysLeftEye, @Robert_Short, @trtx84, @thisisbeth, and @SethTweets), another question became rather obvious...what has the Twins farm system really produced in the way of pitching in the last 10-15 years?<br />
<br />
The list of home-grown Twins pitchers, excluding anyone on the current roster, is actually fairly short...shorter than I thought it would be. I didn't differentiate between starters or relievers, the only requirement was that the pitcher had to have come up (more or less) through the Twins farm system and had to have reached the Majors at some point in their career. Here's the list:<br />
<br />
*<b><b><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/garzama01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Matt Garza</a></b></b> - currently a starting pitcher for the Cubs<br />
*<b><b><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mijarjo01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Jose Mijares</a></b></b> - currently a reliever for the Royals<br />
*<b><b><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/sloweke01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Kevin Slowey</a></b></b> - currently in the Minor League system for the Indians<br />
*<b><b><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/crainje01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Jesse Crain</a></b></b> - currently a reliever for the White Sox (on the DL)<br />
*<b><b><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/n/neshepa01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Pat Neshek</a></b></b> - currently in the Minor League system for the Orioles<br />
*<b><b><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/romerj.01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">J.C. Romero</a></b></b> - currently a reliever for the Cardinals<br />
*<b><b><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hawkila01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">LaTroy Hawkins</a></b></b> - currently a reliever for the Angels<br />
*<b><b><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/lohseky01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Kyle Lohse</a></b></b> - currently a starting pitcher for the Cardinals<br />
*<b><b><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/balfogr01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Grant Balfour</a></b></b> - currently the closer for the Athletics<br />
<br />
**Notable names missing from this list include <b><b><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/santajo02.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Johan Santana</a></b></b> (a Rule 5 selection who only spent one year in the Twins Minor League system), <b><b><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/guerrma02.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Matt Guerrier</a></b></b> (taken off waivers from the Pirates in 2003), and<b> <b><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?results=silvaca01,silva-003car&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Carlos Silva</a></b></b> (came over in the Eric Milton trade).<br />
<br />
Here's another list - of pitchers the Twins have drafted in the first or second round since 2000 (<a href="http://thebaseballcube.com/draft/teamsDraft.asp?T=17">source</a>):<br />
<br />
<b>2000</b> - <b><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/johnsad01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Adam Johnson</a></b>, <b><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/heilmaa01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Aaron Heilman</a></b>, <b><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/durbijd01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">J.D. Durbin</a></b><br />
<b>2001</b> - <b><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker&id=tyler-001sco" target="_blank">Scott Tyler</a></b><br />
<b>2002</b> - Jesse Crain<br />
<b>2003</b> - <b><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?results=bakersc02,bakersc01&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Scott Baker</a></b><br />
<b>2004</b> - <b><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/perkigl01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Glen Perkins</a></b>, <b><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?results=waldro001kyl,waldrky01&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Kyle Waldrop</a></b>, <b><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/foxma01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Matt Fox</a></b>, <b><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker&id=rainvi001jay" target="_blank">Jay Rainville</a></b>, <b><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/swarzan01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Anthony Swarzak</a></b><br />
<b>2005</b> - Matt Garza, Kevin Slowey<br />
<b>2006</b> -<br />
<b>2007</b> -<br />
<b>2008</b> - <b><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?results=gutier003car,gutier002car&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Carlos Gutierrez</a></b>, <b><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker&id=hunt--001sho" target="_blank">Shooter Hunt</a></b><br />
<b>2009</b> - <b><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?results=gibson002kyl,gibson001kyl&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Kyle Gibson</a></b>, <b><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker&id=bashor001mat" target="_blank">Matt Bashore</a></b>, <b><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker&id=bulloc002bil" target="_blank">Billy Bullock</a></b><br />
<b>2010</b> - <b><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker&id=wimmer001ale" target="_blank">Alex Wimmers</a></b><br />
<b>2011</b> - Hudson Boyd, <b><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker&id=boer--000mad" target="_blank">Madison Boer</a></b><br />
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When you look at that list, one thing should pop out to you and that is this fact: the Twins have not produced even ONE big-league pitcher drafted within the first two rounds of the draft in the past 6 years. The last couple of draft classes excluded (for obvious reasons) the Twins have only drafted ONE pitcher in the first two rounds who even stands a decent chance to be a Major Leaguer and that is Kyle Gibson who is currently on the DL after undergoing Tommy John surgery last year. Since 2006, the Twins have drafted only two pitchers anywhere in the draft who have reached the Majors: <b><b><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/manshje01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Jeff Manship</a></b></b> (14th round, 2006) and <b><b><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/slamaan01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Anthony Slama</a></b> </b>(39th round, 2006), both of whom are currently pitching for AAA Rochester.<br />
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Maybe suggesting that the Twins need an "organizational change in philosophy" is putting the cart before the horse. Perhaps what really is needed is a change in the methods (or the personnel) that this team uses to scout young talent. (Side note: It's interesting when you take a look at the tenures of the current members in the Twins scouting department. Deron Johnson, the Twins current Director of Scouting started in 2007, the same year Bill Smith took over as GM.) To be fair, most other teams in MLB have only had a small handful of pitchers drafted in '06-'11 reach the Majors, but the Twins currently have zero. Another thing to point out here is the hit-or-miss nature of drafting pitchers...it's
like drafting a starting quarterback in the NFL. Unless you're looking at a Stephen
Strasburg type who is clearly a big-league commodity when drafted, it's
difficult to project what a pitcher's potential will be 2-5 years down
the line when they finally make it to the Big Leagues. That said, prior to 2006 the Twins did have some success drafting pitchers which bore fruit in the likes of Scott Baker, Glen Perkins, Matt Garza, Jesse Crain and Kevin Slowey - all of whom had at least a good season or two with the Major League club. Perkins is currently the best reliever in the Twins bullpen and Matt Garza has had some very good numbers for the Cubs over the last two seasons and tossed a no-hitter in 2010 with the Rays. They've shown the ability to identify good talent, at least at some point in the past, but that ability appears to have waned...or flat out disappeared.<br />
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I'd love to hear what you readers think - also, let me know if I left anyone out of the first list above.Adam Kruegerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12460938738580518447noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-652377080594581288.post-21361657470912410942012-05-07T13:08:00.002-04:002012-05-07T13:10:20.601-04:00A Move the Twins Can Make NowMy fandom for this team is wavering - I can admit it. In March I was optimistic that the Twins could put the 2011 disaster behind them and have a respectable season, hell maybe even a winning season. It is now clear that my 'rose-colored glasses' were on and those glasses now lay broken in pieces on the ground. Reality is a bitch sometimes. After watching historic offensive ineptitude over the last 5 games, watching the team get no-hit and swept by the Angels and handled easily by the lowly Mariners, it's getting to the point where I can't follow this team on a daily basis any longer. I'm not going to stop being a fan - it just hurts too much to continue watching day after day. All that said, I think it's time that the Twins front-office took a realistic look at things. This team isn't going to win anything this year...and likely won't be winning anything next year either. The current team in inept on a number of levels with too many holes to address all at once. So, knowing that the mountain lay in front of you, first steps need to be taken and taken soon. The first thing I would do is see what you can get for <b><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cappsma01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Matt Capps</a></b>.<br />
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There are a number of teams right now with struggling and/or injured Closers. Potential teams that would be looking for a closer include: Yankees, Marlins, Nationals, Blue Jays, Angels, Red Sox, Athletics, Giants, and on and on. Trading for Matt Capps was the beginning of the fall for the Twins and dealing him now could be the beginning of the healing process. I know that not all of the teams I mentioned above are going to be interested in an overweight closer with a suspect history of success in the 'Closer' role, but surely there must be a team or two out there who could be duped into giving up a prospect or two for the 28-year-old right-hander, just as the Twins were 2 years ago. The bottom-line is that the Twins aren't really going to need Capps and there is currently a lot of potential demand for someone with his experience. Not only that, you clear the remainder of his $4.5M salary off the books.<br />
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There are other players the Twins could trade. <b><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/spande01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Denard Span</a></b>, <b><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/pavanca01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Carl Pavano</a></b> and <b><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/willijo03.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Josh Willingham</a></b> come to mind. None are more useless to this team, however, than the portly Capps. The Twins have a strained bullpen already, but with the way the starters have pitched it doesn't really make sense to hold on to a guy like Capps given the closer situations on so many other teams. The Twins have to start turning the ship around by rebuilding their depleted Minor League system and that happens by trading expendable talent like Capps.<br />
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Beyond trading Capps, this organization needs to take some serious time in thinking about their philosophies towards pitching and hitting. The "pitch-to-contact" philosophy that has now become the punch-line to jokes when referring to the Twins, is obviously flawed. Without good defense to back up these types of pitchers, the results are bound to be disastrous. From an offensive standpoint, the brass seem to put an emphasis on the elusive concept of "team speed" but a) poorly utilize the speed they do have and b) don't understand that "team speed" and winning don't correlate very well. The teams that are successful have a balance between "power" and "finesse". They have the boppers who can hit one out at any moment and they have the scrappy singles and doubles hitters who can pester the opponent with speed. They have power arms and they have control pitchers. They don't get stuck trying to hoard one type of pitcher or hitter. They put a high value on players whose strengths translate into winning baseball...no matter the particular way in which they go about it.<br />
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I want to be optimistic about this team, but Twins fans, I'm afraid we're in for a few years of losing baseball before things get better. There are a lot of factors, both internally and externally, working against this team. The division has gotten better. The Twins minor league system has some talent, but that talent is currently at the A and AA levels and is not nearing maturity to the Bigs. The current squad of big-league talent isn't that good. Payroll will continue to shrink as attendance wanes. The Twins don't have much to offer in the form of trade-bait. In summary, this team needs Terry Ryan's savvy more than ever, to dig out of a hole that has quickly gotten very deep.Adam Kruegerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12460938738580518447noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-652377080594581288.post-24460834363310660092012-04-10T10:31:00.000-04:002012-04-10T10:31:56.632-04:00Time for Joe to Go?I know it's 'in vogue' to call for the head of the hitting coach when things are going badly. I'm hardly the first and if things keep going like this for the Twins (6 runs in 4 games) more and more people will jump on that bandwagon. The fact of the matter is that in each of the past two season, the Twins offense has gotten off to a very slow start and sometimes a change a scenery is needed, even if the old scenery isn't necessarily the problem.<br />
<br />
Last year, the circumstances were different, but the outcome was the same. In their first 29 games of 2011, the Twins managed only one game in which the offense scored more than 5 runs. Injuries were to blame more than anything else for the slow start in 2011, but this year the Twins entered and emerged from Spring Training with a fully capable lineup that had been playing well leading up to the beginning of the season.<br />
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Their struggles so far this year are no mystery when you look at the data. As a team they seem unable to hit a ball that doesn't hit the ground before it hits a glove. In fact, of all the balls the Twins have put in play so far this season, 67.7% of them have been groundballs which, far and away, leads the Majors. Their GB/FB ratio is 3.35/1 -- almost DOUBLE that of any other team (the next closest is the Giants at 1.87/1 GB/FB ratio). The propensity to hit groundballs has led to an understandably low BABIP (.184) which pretty much explains why the Twins have been unable to score runs. To put it a different way - the Twins have scored 6 runs in 4 games and 3 of those runs have come as a result of HRs hit by Josh Willingham. If not for that, the Twins would have been shutout twice in the first 4 games. [all stats courtesy of <a href="http://fangraphs.com/">fangraphs.com</a>]<br />
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Joe Vavra's had a good run. He was hired following the 2005 season and in 2006, the Twins scored over 800 runs and won 96 games. After a down year in 2007, the Twins again reached the 800+ runs mark in both 2008 and 2009 and almost reached that mark in 2010 scoring 781 runs. Last year, well, we all know what happened last year - the team only scored 619 runs on it's way to one of the worst years in franchise history.<br />
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I'm only half-heartedly calling for a change. I know it's only 4 games and I also know that there are 158 games left this season. The Twins offense could (and probably will) turn it around at any point. I'm saying that if this offensive futility continues, then there needs to be some changes made -- and in this case I think it should start with the hitting coach.Adam Kruegerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12460938738580518447noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-652377080594581288.post-21635336865341341382011-12-13T23:32:00.000-05:002011-12-13T23:32:13.066-05:00Josh Willingham: What's Not to Like?Depending on who you trust on Twitter, the Twins may or may not have agreed, in principle, to a deal with outfielder/DH free-agent <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/willijo03.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Josh Willingham</a></strong>. Jerry Crasnick reported earlier this evening that a deal had been reached pending a physical - a report which was contradicted by Rhett Bollinger later in the evening saying that the two sides were close, but that they hadn't yet officially reached a deal...either way, I'm willing to bet that Willingham will become a Twin here within the next 12-24 hours so I thought I'd chime in. On an unrelated note, please forgive my scant postings over the last couple of weeks. I started a new job on Dec. 2nd and, well, it's been non-stop busy-ness since with no end in sight.<br />
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There's really not much to dislike about this deal from an outsiders perspective. <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cuddymi01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Michael Cuddyer</a></strong>, whom Willingham is "replacing", is 32-years old, so is Willingham. Their hitting profiles are very similar in that they are both right-handed hitters with some power and good on-base percentages. In watching Cuddyer go to another team, the Twins get two draft picks in return and for a farm system that is somewhat depleted, the picks could not be coming at a better time. In addition, Willingham is likely to save the Twins a little bit of money. All of these things are positive. The only negative, in my opinion, is that you lose a guy in Cuddyer who has been a scrapper and a gamer for the last few seasons, who was clearly a good clubhouse guy and who was somewhat of a fan favorite. That said, none of those are reasons to keep a guy around.<br />
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Josh Willingham really didn't start to see regular big-league action until 2006 (age 27) but has been a pretty consistent big-league performer since, compiling a .262/.361/.475 triple-slash in 2,707 big-league at-bats. Since the beginning of the '06 season he has hit 131 homeruns (avg ~ 21/yr) and 155 doubles (avg ~ 26). Defense is where Willingham struggles a bit and where Cuddyer certainly has the upper hand when comparing the two players. Willingham will almost certainly be in left-field for the Twins - a position has spent the majority of his big-league career playing. He also gained some experience as a DH last year with Oakland so if the Twins get him, I would expect we'll see him used in that role as well from time to time.<br />
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I really hope the Twins do get Willingham. I was never bitten by the Cuddyer-bug, I respect him as a player and a hard-worker, but I think that the Twins benefit more in the long-run by letting him go. Willingham doesn't have quite the versatility that Cuddyer has defensively, but for a little less coin I'm willing to make the swap.Adam Kruegerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12460938738580518447noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-652377080594581288.post-11691472478172600452011-11-30T18:12:00.000-05:002011-11-30T18:12:05.073-05:00Remembering Brad Radke<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjoEQ9QW2Vqudq1NMpUTaOkeomNifreFKJzGFT800gVVoDasjSJyYjgkCJP9zNaPX2dZuGS8LqrlFcbON7B9__43POXqsQstzSQ6BOiW89B467y2WaqLBKAFSED0gsomwWBlh5JSfnWNsU/s1600/Brad+Radke.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjoEQ9QW2Vqudq1NMpUTaOkeomNifreFKJzGFT800gVVoDasjSJyYjgkCJP9zNaPX2dZuGS8LqrlFcbON7B9__43POXqsQstzSQ6BOiW89B467y2WaqLBKAFSED0gsomwWBlh5JSfnWNsU/s1600/Brad+Radke.jpg" /></a></div><br />
No, he didn't die. I thought about changing the title to make it seem less eulogy-like, but I couldn't think of anything. He didn't die; instead, I found out today that this is Radke's first year of eligibility for the Hall of Fame and given the other people on this year's ballot, he might actually have a shot...just kidding. I thought it would be fun to revisit Radke's career, first inning struggles and all.<br />
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Brad William Radke was drafted in the 8th round of the 1991 MLB Amateur Draft at the young age of 18. He was a product of Jesuit High School in Tampa, FL which also produced other Major Leaguers such as Lou Piniella, Al Lopez (HOF), Dave Madagan and <b><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/michaja01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Jason Michaels</a></b>. Radke had early success in the Minors, throwing well in Rookie Ball and A-league ball before a promotion to AA towards the end of the '93 season. Radke spent all of the 1994 season at AA posting a very good 2.66 ERA in 186.1 innings - enough to turn some heads in the Twins front office.<br />
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Given that '94 was a strike-shortened season, the 1995 season started late and Radke was actually able to make the team out of Spring Training. He made his Major League debut on April 29th, a relief appearance in which he allowed 3 earned runs (4 runs overall) to the Baltimore Orioles in a game the Twins went on to lose 13-7. After that game, the rest of his appearances that year were as a starter and he managed to do OK considering he was on a team that lost 88 games that season (only 144 played that year). He won 11 games against 14 losses, gave up a league-high 32 homeruns, and threw 181 innings for the Twins...not bad for a 22-year-old rookie who's pro-career, to that point, had not extended past AA ball.<br />
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Even in that first year, Radke began to show a pattern which would plague him for his entire career - he had trouble getting out of the 1st and 2nd innings without giving up runs. In '95, his 1st inning ERA was 6.43, his 2nd inning ERA was 5.53 and after that, it settled in the low-4s. Though subsequent seasons were not nearly as terrible, the trend of early-inning struggles continued for most of Radke's career. He also gave up a TON of homeruns. He led the league in homeruns-allowed in both 1995 and 1996 and finished in the top 5 in that category 4 times during his career. For his career, he allowed 326 home-runs which ranks 35th all-time among MLB pitchers...this despite the fact that Radke had a relatively short 12-year career.<br />
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<b><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/radkebr01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Brad Radke</a></b>'s career was not without highlights however. In 1997 he had a pretty lucky season that saw him win 20 games for the hometown club...especially impressive given the fact that the Twins lost almost 100 games that season. In that same year, he also won 12 consecutive games (consecutive starts), becoming only the 3rd pitcher since 1950 to do that (courtesy: <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brad_Radke">wikipedia</a>). Radke's career saddled the Twins transition from perennial loser to perennial contender perfectly; the team has 6 losing seasons and 6 winning seasons during his tenure as a Twin.<br />
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Radke was inducted into the Twins Hall of Fame in 2009, the team's last season in the Metrodome. He the poster child for the pitching "mold" that the Twins have become famous for...low strikeout rate, low walk rate. Radke ranks 32nd all-time in BB/9IP ratio (min 1,000 IP), ranking ahead of other famously walk-stingy pitchers like <b><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hallaro01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Roy Halladay</a></b> and <b><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/maddugr01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Greg Maddux</a></b>. Radke will, I think, always be fondly remembered by Twins fans. He was quiet, he wasn't a distraction, he was a work-horse and he was reliable - that's about as much as you can ask of any player. In a way, he was kind of a paradox - he possessed pin-point control, yet gave up a lot of home-runs. My personal favorite memory of Radke isn't exactly a good one (if your name is Brad Radke). My favorite player growing up, aside from Kirby Puckett who was done playing by the time I was 12 years old, was <b><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/griffke02.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Ken Griffey</a></b> Jr. I begged my dad to take me to see him when the Mariners were in town during the '99 season and in the game we saw, Radke started and gave back-to-back home-runs to Griffey and A-Rod in the 1st inning. Classic.Adam Kruegerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12460938738580518447noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-652377080594581288.post-60070011674437102182011-11-28T22:24:00.000-05:002011-11-28T22:24:06.055-05:00What DO the Twins Have?With the baseball winter meetings coming up in a week or so - the baseball hot-stove fires are about to be stoked into a blazing inferno here in the next 1-2 weeks. Up to this point I've done my fair share of speculating about what the Twins will do and in looking around other Twins blogs, you'll find no shortage of others who tried their hand at the same thing. With this piece, I want to take a different tact...I want to take a look at the pieces the Twins have right now that we can be assured of seeing on Opening Day (barring pre-season injury of course). All of us have a pretty good idea of what the holes on this team are - but laying out what the team has right now may make it crystal clear where the team should start in addressing their weaknesses.<br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><b><br />
</b></span><br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><b>Infield (arbitration eligibles in <span style="color: red;">red</span>, backups in parentheses):</b></span><br />
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C - <b><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mauerjo01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Joe Mauer</a></b> (<b><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/doumiry01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Ryan Doumit</a></b>/<b><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/buterdr01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Drew Butera</a></b>)<br />
1B - <b><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/morneju01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Justin Morneau</a></b><br />
2B - <span style="color: lime;">OPEN</span> (<span style="color: red;"><b><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/casilal01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Alexi Casilla</a></b></span>)<br />
SS - <b><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/carroja01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Jamey Carroll</a></b> (<b><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/n/nishits01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Tsuyoshi Nishioka</a></b>)<br />
3B - <b><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/valenda01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Danny Valencia</a></b><br />
DH - Ryan Doumit/ ? <br />
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This infield situation is complicated by unknowns. In a perfect world, the Twins would bring in a <b><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/johnske05.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Kelly Johnson</a></b> or a <b><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hillaa01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Aaron Hill</a></b> type to fill the hole at 2nd base and your infield would be set with Morneau & Valencia on the corners with Carroll and Johnson/Hill up the middle. Reality is far from that though as the Twins have still not addressed second base and only God knows what Justin Morneau's availability will be come Opening Day.<br />
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</b><br />
<b>Outfield (arbitration eligibles in <span style="color: red;">red</span>, backups in parentheses):</b><br />
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RF - <span style="color: lime;">OPEN</span><br />
CF - <b><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/spande01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Denard Span</a></b> (<b><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/reverbe01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Ben Revere</a></b>)<br />
LF - <b><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bensojo01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Joe Benson</a></b>? <b><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/plouftr01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Trevor Plouffe</a></b>?<br />
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To me, the outfield situation is just as dire as the bullpen situation. If the Twins do nothing to address the outfield situation, the Twins will have a couple of guys (Revere and Benson) with less than a full-year of Major League experience as your starting Right and Left fielders. Not only that, Denard Span is coming off a 2nd-half which saw him miss significant time due to a concussion. He has said on <a href="http://www.twitter.com/thisisdspan">Twitter</a> that he's been feeling good lately, but with Morneau's cautionary tale, I don't think there's any counting on Span. I would like to think they'll bring back <b><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kubelja01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Jason Kubel</a></b>, though I view his role as more of a DH if he returns, filling the void left by <b><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/thomeji01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Jim Thome</a></b>'s departure. <b><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker&id=hicks-001aar" target="_blank">Aaron Hicks</a></b> stands to get a look in Spring Training, but as a 22-year-old who spent all of last year a Fort-Myers (A-ball), I don't know that his chances are all that good. The Twins have announced that they are going to make Trevor Plouffe an outfielder, but even if he makes the transition defensively, I don't know that he has much staying power in the lineup (.697 OPS in 286 PAs last season). In short, the Twins have a lot of outfield question marks and not a lot of answers, though I did discuss a few <a href="http://thebatshatters.blogspot.com/2011/11/looking-to-outfield.html">potential free-agent answers</a> in my last post.<br />
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<b>Starting Pitching (arbitration eligibles in <span style="color: red;">red</span>):</b><br />
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#1 <span style="color: red;"><b>Francisco Liriano</b></span><br />
#2 <b><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/pavanca01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Carl Pavano</a></b><br />
#3 <b><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?results=bakersc02,bakersc01&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Scott Baker</a></b><br />
#4 <b><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/blackni01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Nick Blackburn</a></b><br />
#5 <span style="color: red;"><b>Kevin Slowey</b></span>? <b><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/duensbr01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Brian Duensing</a></b>?<br />
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Some people have seen a lot of question marks here too, but to me the starting rotation is pretty much set with the only question mark being who the Gardenhire and the Twins will decide to install as their 5th starter. As expected, Duensing's permanent move to the rotation last season exposed him and I wouldn't be surprised if they move him back to into the bullpen and give Slowey his old spot back. Then again, Slowey is (and has been) in the dreaded Gardenhire dog-house for awhile, so there are certainly no guarantees there. I would love to see the Twins go out and grab another starting pitcher, but those tend to be expensive, especially in a market like this year's when there are not many good ones available. As far as help from the farm goes, the Twins have nothing in the Minors that inspires much confidence in terms of starting pitching. There are a couple of arms (Hendriks, Salcedo), but they don't seem close.<br />
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<b>Bullpen Pitching (arbitration eligibles in <span style="color: red;">red</span>):</b><br />
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<div style="color: red;"><b>Glen Perkins</b></div><span style="color: red;"><b>Jose Mijares</b></span><br />
? <b style="color: red;">Jeff Manship</b> ?<br />
? <span style="color: lime;">OPEN</span><br />
? <span style="color: lime;">OPEN</span><br />
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Ok, I take that back about the outfield rivaling the bullpen as the Twins most pressing issue. Holy smokes. The Twins have a bunch of garbage arms they could use including (but certainly not limited to): <b><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/burneal01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Alex Burnett</a></b>, <b><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/diamosc01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Scott Diamond</a></b>, <b><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hoeyja02.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Jim Hoey</a></b>, <b><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/grayje02.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Jeff Gray</a></b>, etc. With around $69.5M already committed to next year's payroll, and another $15M or so wrapped up in arbitration eligible players...the Twins have about $15M to spend to fill holes in the infield, outfield and bullpen. It's going to take every cent of that money, in addition to some GM wizardry, to field a competitive Twins team in 2012, but I feel that Terry Ryan is up to the task. Capable bullpen arms don't need to be expensive, and as Aaron Gleeman talked about <a href="http://aarongleeman.com/2011/11/28/twins-notes-capps-perkins-cuddyer-kubel-glynn-valencia-and-chen/">in his most recent column</a>, the Twins shouldn't feel the need to spend a lot of money on a closer either...a closer doesn't need to be "proven" in order to be dominant.<br />
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I think if I were Mr. Ryan, I would focus on the outfield first because useful outfielders are likely to be snapped up a lot more quickly than useful bullpen arms will be. Aside from that, I wouldn't overreact or overpay for marginal talent. The Twins have enough quality pieces (especially if Mauer and Morneau are healthy) that they can afford to have a few duds in the lineup). I would rather see good money spent in the bullpen than money needless thrown at replacement level infielders and outfielders.Adam Kruegerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12460938738580518447noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-652377080594581288.post-44845094796359858742011-11-21T15:07:00.001-05:002011-11-21T15:15:34.878-05:00Looking to the OutfieldHats-off to Terry Ryan. In his first couple of weeks back on the job he has already addressed two significant areas of weakness on the ballclub using minimal funds. I could take a few minutes and talk about the <b><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/doumiry01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Ryan Doumit</a></b> acquisition, but others have already done a good job of that, particularly <a href="http://www.nickstwinsblog.com/2011/11/doumit-is-ideal-fit-for-twins.html">Nick Nelson</a> and <a href="http://overthebaggy.blogspot.com/2011/11/introduction-to-ryan-doumits-offense.html">Parker Hageman</a> - both of them wrote excellent pieces about Doumit and his fit with the Twins, check out both pieces.<br />
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Because Terry Ryan has been so thrifty so far, he has left himself with a good chunk of funding left to fill other holes on the team, particularly in the outfield, starting rotation and bullpen. I want to look to the outfield to see what the Twins options are. I'm operating from the assumptions that the Twins lose either Cuddyer or Kubel, or they lose both of them. I don't see the Twins being able to keep both and I find a situation in which Kubel stays to be much more likely. If the Twins keep either Cuddyer or Kubel they will likely only "need" to add one outfielder to the mix because I'm also assuming that <b><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/reverbe01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Ben Revere</a></b> and/or <b><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bensojo01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Joe Benson</a></b> will make the Major League club out of Spring Training. I put "need" in quotes because if they Twins keep Kubel, they could technically get away with not adding an OFer at all, but unless you're willing to make Kubel and Revere full-time outfielders, they're going to have to add someone. Moving along...<br />
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**By the way, it has been reported that the new collective bargaining agreement in Major League Baseball does away with compensation for Type-B free agents meaning the teams with Type-Bs will receive nothing if the player signs with another club. I haven't seen any sources confirming that this is set in stone so I'm leaving the designations there for now...just keep in mind that it may be utterly meaningless if it's true that MLB did away with "Type-B" designations.<br />
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<b><b><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kubelja01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Jason Kubel</a></b> (Type-B)</b> - 2011 Salary: $5,250,000<br />
I've talked about Kubel before, particularly about how <a href="http://thebatshatters.blogspot.com/2010/10/examining-kubels-value.html">I think he has unique value</a>. Kubel, like most other Twins' players, was injured for a large portion of the season, missing a total of 63 games. Through the first two months of last season he was pretty much the only bright spot in the lineup posting a .310/.355/.465 line through the end of May. He was looking like his 2009-self until being sidelined for all of June and most of July with a sprained foot. Anyway, we all know the story. Kubel is unique in the sense that he's a left-handed power hitter. Prior to the 2011 season, he had 3-straight 20+ HR seasons and during those three years he had a .821 OPS. His defense isn't great, but sans-Thome, the Twins could really use a competent hitter in the DH spot, a role Kubel would be able to fill quite competently. Kubel has been a consistent performer when healthy and at 29-years-old, extending him a 2-4 year deal makes sense.<br />
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<b><b><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?results=rossco01,ross--002cod&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Cody Ross</a></b> (Type-B)</b> - 2011 Salary: $6,300,000<br />
Ross is an intriguing option from a few different angles. First, he can (and has) play all three outfield positions. Most of his playing time has been spent in centerfield, but he's also played appreciable time in right and left. With as many interchangeable parts as the Twins have (a catcher that needs frequent breaks from catching, no established DH, etc), having a versatile outfielder could be a major positive for a club that needs to move players around on a regular basis. In addition to that, Ross has some decent power (career .456 slugging %) from the right-side which is lacking in the current Twins lineup.<br />
Ross has a couple of downsides as well. His ability to get on-base leaves something to be desired (career .323 OBP) and he doesn't really hit for average either. Fielding-wise he's very average though for the Twins, "average" is probably an upgrade, especially in right-field. There's also the fact that in each of the last 5 season, Ross' OPS has dropped...from 1.064 in 66 games in '07, to .730 in 121 games last season. At 30-years-old Ross definitely has something left in the tank, but unless Ross sits out there on the free-agent market for awhile, the price tag will likely be too high to make it worth the risk.<br />
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<b><b><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/ludwiry01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Ryan Ludwick</a></b> (Type-B)</b> - 2011 Salary: $6,775,000<br />
It's scary when you look at how similar Ryan Ludwick and Cody Ross are offensively. Ross' career triple-slash is .261/.323/.456, Ludwick's career triple-slash is .261/.332/.455. Pluses for Ludwick are slightly better plate-discipline and slightly better defense, but other than that the two have very similar career stories. Ludwick, much like Ross, has even seen a decline over the last 4 seasons. After an All-Star season in '08 which saw him hit 37 HRs and drive in 113, his OPS and overall production have declined in each season since. Given his poor 2011 season, I'm guessing that Ludwick could probably be had for a discount and would definitely be an upgrade defensively - I think he's in line for a bounce-back of sorts.<br />
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<b><b><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hawpebr01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Brad Hawpe</a></b> (Outright FA)</b> - 2011 Salary: $2,000,000<br />
The Padres had a $6M option on Hawpe but after a dismal 2011 season, they understandably decided to opt for the $1M buyout making Hawpe an outright free agent. From 2006 to 2009 Hawpe was a very consistent hitter for the Colorado Rockies posting 4-straight 20+ HR seasons and a .902 OPS over that time. Ever since, he's looked nothing like that while splitting time between 3 different ballclubs. Defensively, Hawpe is nothing special at all with a career-.978 fielding% and a career -18.9 UZR/150 -- and my 'nothing special' I mean he's pretty terrible. Hawpe might be worth a flier - but if I were Terry Ryan I wouldn't offer anything more than a one-year "let's see" type deal.<br />
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<b><b><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/willijo03.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Josh Willingham</a></b> (Type-A)</b> - 2011 Salary: $6,000,000<br />
It's hard to say how realistic it is that the Twins could land Willingham. For one thing, he's certainly going to be making more than $6M per year with whomever he ends up signing. His OPS has been north of .800 for the past 6 seasons and at 32-years old, he has miles left on the tires. Offensively he's <strike>probably</strike> the best of the mid-tier options out there and defensively he sits somewhere between Cody Ross and Ryan Ludwick. I would be ecstatic if the Twins went out there and got him, but given their self-reported payroll goals, I find it improbable that he ends up in a Twins uniform. Michael Rand over at the Star Tribune <a href="http://www.startribune.com/sports/blogs/134256078.html">wrote an interesting piece</a> about Willingham and how the Twins fans might be focusing too much on him, can't say I disagree - check it out.<br />
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I think we'll continue to see the Twins regularly add pieces as we go through the next couple of months - not all of them are going to be household names, but I would be surprised to see one bigger name in there somewhere - I think it will most likely it will be a starting pitcher or reliever.<br />
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I haven't mentioned this in a post before (I don't think), but if you want, follow me on Twitter (@thebatshatters). I try to keep it almost 100% sports and Twins related - unlike some people who choose to share their political views on a regular basis. Also, on this Thanksgiving Week, I want to say a big THANK YOU to all of you who are regular readers of this blog, I really appreciate the time you take to read and comment.Adam Kruegerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12460938738580518447noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-652377080594581288.post-84899836177687173792011-11-17T17:08:00.000-05:002011-11-17T17:08:39.866-05:00If It Ain't Broke, Don't Fix It<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgHJGtZN6UtgGFcK31mudJyPmacyew45p1DlofzAJEKCU_qVLqJ2XPboUBAJUuqO1dLTRb4P3mCz8x8L0B1eqJaIeSLyilUkucm2wHzebS2u9WyAwOeqeWlB0xYmzLboWW65k0w3GlHp_I/s1600/dre1105l.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgHJGtZN6UtgGFcK31mudJyPmacyew45p1DlofzAJEKCU_qVLqJ2XPboUBAJUuqO1dLTRb4P3mCz8x8L0B1eqJaIeSLyilUkucm2wHzebS2u9WyAwOeqeWlB0xYmzLboWW65k0w3GlHp_I/s320/dre1105l.jpg" width="228" /></a></div><br />
Leave it to the Astros to go and screw everything up. I'm not sure exactly HOW it happened, but the new owner of the Astros (Jim Crane) got Bud Selig and Major League baseball to sign-off on moving the team to the American League as part of his deal to buy the team. In addition to the Astros' move from the NL Central to the AL West, MLB will be adding a second wild-card team to each league and will, most likely, implement a one-game playoff between the two wild card teams in each league (a play-in game, if you will). Oh, and because each league now contains the same odd amount of teams (15), 'Inter-league Play' will now be a regular, every-day part of the baseball schedule.<br />
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My first reaction to these changes is all negative. Wasn't this past season's September and October evidence enough that what baseball has/had is working? You had two teams make the playoffs on the very final day of the regular season, you had several compelling and interesting playoff series and you had a 7-game World Series for the 2nd consecutive year. I know it's not like this every year, but even in recent memory there has been plenty of similarly exciting stuff happening at the end of the season (back-to-back Game 163s in 2008 and 2009 for the Twins comes immediately to mind). I can't help but feel that one change in particular hasn't been purely media motivated, and the change I'm referring to is the addition of a second wild-card in each league.<br />
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For years now, the Eastcoast Sports Programming Network (ESPN) talking heads have been bitching about the fact that there are three playoff-worthy teams in the AL East and only two of them can make it into the post-season. Other lesser AL East teams like the Orioles and Jays have publicly stated that they don't feel they can realistically compete with the payrolls in their own division and thus cannot field teams that can compete for precious few playoff spots. In swoops Bud Selig to save the day! Make no mistake, these moves are motivated PURELY by revenue opportunities...not for the betterment of the game of baseball. The game is fine the way it is/was.<br />
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My second reaction to this news was more rational. It's going to happen, might as well accept it. I do like it in one aspect and one aspect alone. I feel as though the wild-card teams should have a disadvantage of some sort. They didn't win a division and not having home-field advantage is not disadvantage enough. If you have a one-game playoff between the two wild-card teams, then each wild-card team will likely (but not necessarily) be forced to use their respective aces...this will give them a distinct disadvantage, especially in the first round of the playoffs where the series' are only a maximum of 5 games in length. I actually like the change from that perspective, but from every other perspective I think it is a needless change.<br />
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I also an idea for one further change MLB might as well make to go along with all of the other changes they're talking about. Do away with the Designated Hitter OR do away with pitchers hitting in the National League. Now that you're going to have year-round Interleague Play, why play with two sets of rules? Year-round Interleague Play is already going to further disrupt the precious idea of a "balanced schedule" so why compound the problem by continuing to hold on to separate rules in each league? DH's are already worthless for 10 games of the season as things currently stand and now they're adding several Interleague games to every team's schedule...<br />
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Like I said earlier, all of these changes are motivated purely by revenue - I just wish that Bud Selig and MLB would come clean about it. To say that these changes will "improve the game of baseball" is like slapping every baseball fan in the face. We all know how great baseball has been over the past few months. Nobody even once broached the subject of adding extra wild-card teams to the mix until the Tampa Bay Rays started winning...and adding another wild doesn't even guarantee extra drama. As Bill from The Platoon Advantage pointed out on Twitter (@Bill_TPA), the two sudden-death wild-card teams in the American League in 2001 would have been the Oakland Athletics (102-60) and the Minnesota Twins (85-77) - hardly would have seemed fair to make the A's play a one-game playoff...Adam Kruegerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12460938738580518447noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-652377080594581288.post-87563597745463701272011-11-10T14:00:00.001-05:002011-11-10T14:07:41.714-05:00Crazy Thoughts: Twins Should Pursue Reyes<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEixACF2chxGecTUWBdaDH8Ah1o6Mrcy57jJIFzoQU_43ZFvyYaB4DEB4-_mRjBwColbMFTTbzVqGdusfUaJp86trxQQLhzcajnV_z5EUeqUak5dloiRJub4WCRnmHpbksgCPmuUeF_3MNc/s1600/Reyes.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEixACF2chxGecTUWBdaDH8Ah1o6Mrcy57jJIFzoQU_43ZFvyYaB4DEB4-_mRjBwColbMFTTbzVqGdusfUaJp86trxQQLhzcajnV_z5EUeqUak5dloiRJub4WCRnmHpbksgCPmuUeF_3MNc/s320/Reyes.jpg" width="266" /></a></div><br />
I've been thinking a lot about the Twins lately, specifically what I think the expectations should be for this off-season and for the 2012 campaign. While I celebrated the re-installation of Terry Ryan as Twins GM, I was equally disappointed to hear that the team plans on dropping it's 2012 payroll to around $100M. Imagine my surprise when I saw many fellow Twins' bloggers support this decision; I figured the reaction would be the opposite. Here's my logic, and I'm going to present a case that the Twins should go after <b><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?results=reyesjo01,reyes-004jos,reyes-016jos,reyes-017jos,reyesjo02&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Jose Reyes</a></b>.<br />
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Two Aprils ago, on a mild night in Minneapolis, the Twins played their first regular-season game in the new Target Field. That 2010 season was a dream of sorts with the squad tallying 94 wins and easily winning the AL Central crown. The playoffs left a poor taste in all of our mouths, but there was hope for 2011 because a majority of the team was returning...except for the middle-infield and half the bullpen. Things didn't work out the way most of us thought they would. In 2011, the Twins had their worst season in 12 years on their way to losing 99 games and finishing dead-last in the AL Central. Bill Smith was fired. Terry Ryan was re-crowned GM...and now the Twins want to reduce the payroll?? Only 2 seasons after opening their brand-new stadium...a large portion of which was paid for by taxpayers in Minnesota? This may seem crazy, but I think that rather than pulling back, this team should be doing all it can to put a competitive team back on the field next year. The holes are obvious and the potential fixes for those holes are out there in the form of free-agents.<br />
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In my opinion, when you fight for 10+ years to get a new stadium built and then it gets done, and then in only your 2nd year in said stadium the team has a bad season...you DON'T give up. I think the Twins owe it to the fans to put as good of a product as possible onto the field, even it is means raising the payroll to $120M or $130M. Here are some other reasons why now is a bad time to reduce payroll and "re-build" for a couple of years:<b> </b><br />
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<b>a)</b> <b><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mauerjo01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Joe Mauer</a></b> isn't getting any younger, neither is <b><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/morneju01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Justin Morneau</a></b>. I realize that both players have had their injuries and that neither is a "sure thing" for the 2012 season, especially Morneau. That said, Mauer is turning 29 shortly after the 2012 season starts and Morneau will turn 31 next May. If you doing the re-building thing for the next season or two, you may be missing out on the last couple of "prime" years from two of your current superstars. Say what you will about Mauer, I know there's a lot of question marks there, but he is going to have a few more great seasons during his career.<b> </b><br />
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<b>b)</b> The Twins have nothing in the Minors that inspires much confidence, especially in terms of pitching. As this last season showed, the Twins farm depth is no where near what many of us thought it was. Many of the Triple-A players that were called-up as a result of injuries last year were over-matched or were just not very good. Of particular concern was the lack of middle-infield depth and the lack of capable bullpen arms in the farm system. Nothing has really changed on that front. The Twins have a few decent prospects (Hicks, Sano, etc), but NONE of them are pitchers...in fact the one elite pitching prospect they had (<b><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?results=gibson002kyl,gibson001kyl&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Kyle Gibson</a></b>) will likely not even pitch in 2012 due to Tommy John surgery. <b><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hendrli01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Liam Hendriks</a></b>, who was thought to be one of the Twins better Minor League arms, took a huge step back in 2011 and pitched to a 6.17 ERA in 4 September starts with the Major League club at the end of the year. According to Baseball Prospectus' new prospect rankings, the <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=15393">Twins have ZERO pitching prospects</a> that even rise to the level of "3-stars". No matter how you look at it, the Twins are going to be getting much rotation help from the Minors any time soon and we've all seen what they have for potential bullpen arms and, well, it ain't good.<b> </b><br />
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<b>c)</b> Re-building isn't going to put butts in the seats. The reason the Twins are talking about reducing payroll is because the team is anticipating a loss of revenue as a result of the team's poor play on the field in 2011. Less season-tickets have been sold, there was less revenue from vendors in the 2nd half of last season, and on and on. That said, spending less on the team and risking a couple more losing seasons isn't going to increase revenue. If anything, it will simply make the problem worse which will result in continued payroll reductions. This has been the Pohlad's M.O. all the way back to when Carl was owner of the team. The Pohlad's want the team to be profitable and they will reduce payroll to the point where, at the very minimum, the Twins are a break-ever proposition. To hear front-office people say, "oh, we might raise the payroll again in a few years" is insulting. The Twins increased their payroll number after every winning season during the 2000's and dropped it following the 2007 after the club had a sub-.500 record that season. The only reason the payroll went up in 2009 was in anticipation of the club's move to Target Field.<br />
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You always hear sports media people talk about "windows" for a given team winning a championship. Usually they are talking about how the "window is closing" on a team...and in the Twins case, the window is already closed or, at best, it's almost closed. This is why the Twins put a stopper on the window and try and get Jose Reyes. Landing Reyes would address a number of issues the Twins have.<b> </b><br />
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<b>a)</b> Shortstop-play is perhaps the Twins most glaring weakness. The position has been a black-hole of offense for them for a majority of the past 20 years and though they have been able to put capable defenders there, they haven't been able to find the complete package (aside from the one season of JJ Hardy).<br />
<b>b)</b> As was made obvious last season, middle infield defense can be directly correlated to the success of the pitching staff. There are a lot of factors at play here, but good middle infield defense can save A LOT of runs which translates directly to wins. Reyes is a very capable defender with a large range when healthy.<br />
<b>c)</b> Ron Gardenhire wants speed? Reyes is speed. He stole 39 bases last season in only 126 games. When he has played full seasons, he's led the National League in steals 3 times (2005, 2006, 2007).<br />
<b>d)</b> There has been talk of the Twins trading <b><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/spande01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Denard Span</a></b>, some say to the Nationals. If they managed to do that and picked up either Espinosa or Desmond, they could put either one at 2nd base, and by acquiring Reyes, you have a bonafide lead-off man to replace Span. Reyes has more pop, more speed, and a better eye than Span.<br />
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Reyes isn't going to be cheap. He made $11M this past season and projects to be making at least $15-$20M/yr depending on the length of the deal. That represents a SIGNIFICANT investment for the Twins, yes, but it also fills a hole that the organization clearly has right now and will probably have for awhile if it is not addressed soon. Reyes is 28-years-old, so he is by no means old, and if you could entice him with a short-term deal, like has been rumored to the be the case with the Marlins (reported that they offered him <a href="http://marlinmaniac.com/2011/11/09/jose-reyes-the-miami-marlins-short-term-man/">3-years @ $20M per</a>), you could hedge your bets a little with regard to age.<br />
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I don't expect the Twins to be players in the Reyes sweepstakes, especially considering their recent announcement about payroll, but it's fun to dream. I really don't understand the reduction in payroll and I don't understand the support for it either. This team has set of circumstances RIGHT NOW (in terms of the age of certain star players) that it will not have 2 or 3 years from now. I think the Twins should either try like hell right now to win, or it's going to be awhile before we see a truly competitive team on the field.Adam Kruegerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12460938738580518447noreply@blogger.com3