24-12

Ahhh. Nothing like a series with the White Sox to make me feel good about the Twins heading into the All-Star break. I managed to watch 3 out of the 4 games this weekend and I have to say, I was generally impressed with what I saw. Living in Chicago, it's always interesting to me to hear what the White Sox announcers have to say about the Twins. One thing is for sure, the Twins are in the heads of the announcers, for sure, and perhaps even the entire White Sox team. After taking 3 of 4 over the weekend, the Twins have won 9 out of their last 10 against Chicago and 29 out their last 36. Sometimes I wish we could play the White Sox all the time, fortunately we get 19 games against them every year.

After playing to a 17-36 (.321, 52-win pace) record through the end of May, the Twins have turned around with a 24-12 (.667, 108-win pace) record since June 1st. They enter the All-Star break with a 41-48 record, sitting in 4th place, 6.5 games behind the division-leading Detroit Tigers. One year ago today, the Twins were sitting in 3rd place with a 46-42 record, 3.5 games behind division-leading Chicago...I'm just sayin' for as good as the memories are of last year's team are, they weren't in all that different of a situation than this year's version is. The difference is that this year's squad dug themselves a massive hole at the beginning of the season and last year's team had a slump in the middle of the season...it's all about perspective. I don't believe this team has 108-win talent, but I also believe they're way better than a 52-win pace. Hopefully this division continues to run mediocre and the Twins can have the final laugh when it's all over.

Being that I live in Chicago, I usually watch Twins v. White Sox games on Chicago television which inevitably means a run-in with Ken "Hawk" Harrelson, the play-by-play (and color) man for the White Sox. Generally he's irritating to listen to, but he's been in baseball for a LONG time and has a deep knowledge of the game, which I can appreciate. During one of the games over the weekend he said that in all of his years of baseball, he's never seen a team have as many injuries to key players as the Twins have had. Given that this team is still in contention...with everything they've gone through, I think Gardenhire and his coaching staff deserve some serious praise. It wasn't that long ago that this team was carting out a mostly Triple-A lineup on a nightly basis, and a lot of those guys are still up here and are contributing in big ways.

The Twins did some shuffling after yesterday's game, sending down Rene Tosoni and Rene Rivera to make room for Delmon Young and hot-hitting Trevor Plouffe. It's good to see Delmon back, especially considering how ugly his ankle injury looked initially. With him and Kubes out the outfield defense has been better, but I think we've missed their bats. As for Plouffe, my gut tells me that calling him up will end in disaster (and another eventual demotion), but I guess he's earned a shot with his bat. Where the Twins will find him playing time is a mystery, but he did kinda force their hand. Either way, I'm happy because a few months ago I purchased an ad for this blog on the Trevor Plouffe baseball-reference page so Plouffe = traffic, thanks Trevor!

Looking ahead to "2nd half", the Twins have 12 straight games (at home!!) against AL Central opponents starting with 4 against Kansas City. Starting on July 18th they will have 8 straight games against the Tigers and Indians, both of whom are in front of them in the standings. This will be a key stretch for the Twins and could mean the difference between whether the Twins are sellers or not. Congratulations to Michael Cuddyer on his All-Star selection, enjoy the break and GO TWINS!!

Wanna See a Great Catch?

Credit: Associated Press

Holy Crap.

This catch made by Sam Fuld in yesterday's White Sox v. Rays game was among of the best I've ever seen. My 2nd favorite part of the video is Hawk Harrelson's version of the call, you have to watch till the 3rd time they show the catch. Most of the time Hawk bothers the crap out of me, but he does have some of the most entertaining calls in all of baseball.

The one aspect of the catch that bothers me? Check out the White Sox fan just beyond the fence who taunts Fuld after the catch. Seriously? Respect the skills!

How Does the Twins Starting Rotation Stack Up?

I was reading another excellent piece by Nick Nelson, a summary of the Twins Starting Pitchers, and then I read the comments...I should probably stop reading comments in blogs, but I saw them and now I can't help myself. This was comment...

"You ask, "Can we compete without top-of-the line pitching?"
The answer is: Within our mediocre division, yes; with the rest of the league, no. Same answer for the past 10 years or so."

The comment's owner is Ed Bast, a faithful commenter on many blogs (which we all appreciate!) and while there is nothing that bothers me about that comment, I just happen to disagree and wahlah, this post was born...so for that Ed, I thank you.

Nowhere in Nick's article did he suggest that the Twins' starting pitching was anything less than "top-of-the-line", in fact he called it the club's "strongest and deepest position." And I agree with that, their starting pitching, particularly the depth they have at the position, is easily their greatest strength. Like I said though, the comment got me thinking and so I want to compare the Twins 5 starters with other top rotations in the American League, just to see how they stack up. For argument's sake, I'm going to use each pitcher's 2010 stats, and for the Twins, I'll rank 1-5 as I see them actually slotted in terms of talent, not in the order Gardenhire elected each one this Spring. For review:

Francisco Liriano (ace)

191.2 IP     (14-10)     3.62/2.66 ERA/FIP     1.26 WHIP     201/58 K/BB

Carl Pavano

221.0 IP     (17-10)     3.75/4.02 ERA/FIP     1.19 WHIP     117/37 K/BB

Scott Baker

170.1 IP     (12-9)     4.49/3.96 ERA/FIP     1.34 WHIP     148/43 K/BB

Brian Duensing

130.2 IP     (10-3)     2.62/3.85 ERA/FIP     1.20 WHIP     78/35 K/BB

Nick Blackburn

161.0 IP     (10-12)     5.42/5.07 ERA/FIP     1.45 WHIP     68/40 K/BB

I've been hearing the most buzz about the Red Sox, so let's start there.

Jon Lester (ace)

208.0 IP     (19-9)     3.25/3.13 ERA/FIP     1.20 WHIP     225/83 K/BB

Clay Buchholz

173.2 IP     (17-7)     2.33/3.61 ERA/FIP     1.20 WHIP     120/67 K/BB

Josh Beckett

127.2 IP     (6-6)     5.75/4.54 ERA/FIP     1.54 WHIP     116/45 K/BB

John Lackey

215.0 IP     (14-11)     4.40/3.85 ERA/FIP     1.42 WHIP     156/72 K/BB

Daisuke Matsuzaka

153.2 IP     (9-6)     4.69/4.05 ERA/FIP     1.37 WHIP     133/74 K/BB

Like the Twins with Liriano and Pavano, the Red Sox had a formidable 1-2 punch last year with Lester and Buchholz. You can count on a healthy Beckett having a better 2011, but Lackey and Daisuke are no more of a "sure thing" than Duensing and Blackburn are. Of all of the other AL teams expected to compete this year, the Red Sox starting rotation appears to be the best of the bunch, but on paper, they aren't that much better than the Twins starting 5, especially if Baker has a 2011 campaign that more closely resembles his 2008 and 2008 seasons and Buchholz experiences some regression this year as his stats indicate he might. Next up, the White Sox.

John Danks (ace)

213.0 IP     (15-11)     3.72/3.70 ERA/FIP     1.33 WHIP     162/70 K/BB

Gavin Floyd

187.1 IP     (10-13)     4.08/3.46 ERA/FIP     1.37 WHIP     151/58 K/BB

Edwin Jackson

209.1 IP     (10-12)     4.47/3.86 ERA/FIP     1.39 WHIP     181/78 K/BB

Jake Peavy

107.0 IP     (7-6)     4.63/4.01 ERA/FIP     1.23 WHIP     93/34 K/BB

Mark Buehrle

210.1 IP     (13-13)     4.28/3.90 ERA/FIP     1.40 WHIP     99/49 K/BB

The White Sox will, in my opinion, once again be the Twins toughest competition for the AL Central crown. Their collective ERA/FIP splits suggest that they were quite an unlucky bunch last year, but when you see those inflated WHIPs, it's not that hard to see why. If Gavin Floyd can throw well in the early part of the year, and Jake Peavy makes a strong comeback from back-to-back injury-plagued seasons...watch out. Otherwise this team will struggle to keep up in the AL Central once again because their options to replace these 5 aren't very good. Next up, the Yankees.

CC Sabathia (ace)

237.2 IP     (21-7)     3.18/3.54 ERA/FIP     1.19 WHIP     197/74 K/BB

A.J. Burnett

186.2 IP     (10-15)     5.26/4.83 ERA/FIP     1.51 WHIP     145/78 K/BB

Phil Hughes

176.1 IP     (18-8)     4.19/4.25 ERA/FIP     1.25 WHIP     146/58 K/BB

Ivan Nova

42.0 IP     (1-2)     4.50/4.36 ERA/FIP     1.45 WHIP     26/17 K/BB
Freddy Garcia

157.0 IP     (12-6)     4.64/4.77 ERA/FIP     1.38 WHIP     89/45 K/BB

Burnett had a terrible year, which leads me to believe we'll see a bit of a bounce back from him, though he is 34, so last year might just had been the beginning of the end. CC, what can you say, the guy is superhuman. Phil Hughes gives the Yankees a shot to contend, without a 3rd starter like him, they'd have no chance. Nova and Garcia will be the wild-cards, Nova's minor league track doesn't suggest that he's going to light the world on fire, and in 7 starts last year (10 appearances overall), I think he showed what kind of Major League pitcher he will be. Honestly, I like the Twins top 3 up against the Yankees top 3...remember folks, it wasn't really the starting pitching that has lost games for the Twins against the Yankees in the playoffs...it's been their inability to put any meaningful offense together. We'll get to see the two teams match up right out of the gate this year as the Twins second series of the season is a 3-game series in New York. Onto the next team, the Rays.

David Price (ace)

208.2 IP     (19-6)     2.72/3.42 ERA/FIP     1.19 WHIP     188/79 K/BB

James Shields

203.1 IP     (13-15)     5.18/4.24 ERA/FIP     1.46 WHIP     187/51 K/BB

Jeremy Hellickson

36.1 IP     (4-0)     3.47/3.88 ERA/FIP     1.10 WHIP     33/8 K/BB

Wade Davis 

168.0 IP     (12-10)     4.07/4.79 ERA/FIP     1.35 WHIP     113/62 K/BB

Jeff Niemann

174.1 IP     (12-8)     4.39/4.61 ERA/FIP     1.26 WHIP     131/61 K/BB

Whether the Rays are a contender in the AL East this year will depend almost solely on their rotation. Price looks like a stud, Hellickson really impressed people last year in 4 starts, and if Shields bounces back from a pretty unlucky year (.341 BABIP), they could have quite a rotation. Losing Carl Crawford on offense is going to hurt so the Rays will be relying heavily on their rotation to give them innings and keep them in games. One team left, the Oakland A's.

Brett Anderson (ace?)

112.1 IP     (7-6)     2.80/3.21 ERA/FIP     1.19 WHIP     75/22 K/BB

Trevor Cahill

196.2 IP     (18-8)     2.97/4.19 ERA/FIP     1.11 WHIP     118/63 K/BB

Gio Gonzalez

200.2 IP     (15-9)     3.23/3.78 ERA/FIP     1.31 WHIP     171/92 K/BB

Dallas Braden

192.2 IP     (11-14)     3.50/3.80 ERA/FIP     1.16 WHIP     113/43 K/BB

Brandon McCarthy (2009 numbers, spent the year in Triple-A in 2010)

97.1 IP     (7-4)     4.62/4.70 ERA/FIP     1.36 WHIP     65/36 K/BB

On paper, this looks like a pretty nice starting 5. The only problem is injury. Both Gonzalez and Anderson have had injury problems within the past two years and 4 out of the 5 guys are pretty young. Like the Rays, the Athletics success this year will depend on this group staying healthy and pitching well, something this group certainly has the potential to do.

So that's a lot of numbers and those are all last year's numbers and things could change drastically this year due to injury or other factors and blah, blah, blah. The point of this post was to suggest that the Twins Starting Rotation is not that much different than most of the other top rotations in the American League. Most of the rotations, even the great ones, have weaker pieces in the 4 and 5 slots. Most of them have a dominant "ace" type guy, so do the Twins in Liriano. Most of them rotations have a horse, a guy who can pitch 200+ innings with above average results, so do the Twins in Pavano (fingers crossed he stays healthy). If Scott Baker can pitch like he did in '08 and '09, I would put him up against any of the #3s I just listed above. There's a lot of "ifs" with the Twins, but these 'ifs' aren't great stretches of the imagination, they are things that could easily come true.

Now if we can just get that offense to come alive in the playoffs...that would really help turn the Twins' post-season fortunes around.

Previewing the AL Central: Chicago White Sox

Last year it was the starting rotation of the White Sox that had everyone talking. Peavy, Danks, Floyd, Buehrle, etc. Going into the year, it looked like one of the best rotations in the game...then Floyd had a rough start, Peavy feel apart physically, and Buehrle continued his slow swan-song to retirement. The Sox had a good run in June only for the wheels to fall off shortly after the All-Star Break, which was enjoyable to watch. This year, the Sox come in with a different look and different questions. Now the lineup looks formidable, but the starting pitching has question marks...

2010 Record: 88-74; 2nd place, 6GB the 1st place Minnesota Twins


Key Departures:
The White Sox managed to lose only the dead-weight from their team.

Bobby Jenks - RP/Closer
You could hear the discontent start in the middle of last year and it only got louder as the year went on. First there were questions about Jenks weight, then he gave up a few games here and there and finally there were the physical issues. In reality, it was simply a bad luck year. Jenks has a career .294 BABIP and last year it shot up to .345. and that was despite a substantial increase in GB%. Nothing probably highlights Jenks unluckiness better than looking at his ERA (4.44) vs. his FIP (2.59) and his xFIP (2.62). Jenks was still good for a 1.5WAR but if you asked the average White Sox fan what they thought of Jenks they'd say, "good riddance!" Do I think the Sox will miss Jenks? No. They have Matt Thornton and Chris Sale, both of whom are flame throwers and both of whom could fill the role of closer just fine. The Red Sox though got one heck of a pitcher who will likely do wonders for the Boston bullpen and who could very easily overtake Papelbon as the closer if Pap struggles out of the gate.

Manny Ramirez - LF/DH
I suppose it didn't cost the White Sox that much in the end ($3.8M), but Ramirez did absolutely nothing to earn that money and the Sox were probably more than happy to see him leave after the season was over. Now he's reunited with Johnny Damon ("isn't that special") in Tampa Bay and baseball history will barely remember than Ramirez spent a month with the White Sox. Not much to say here, the White Sox won't miss him.

Andruw Jones - OF/DH
For the playing time that he got last year, Jones actually performed better than I thought he would. He almost hit 20 HRs and he had a respectable .827 OPS. He did nothing to defile himself in the outfield, logging time and playing well at each of the 3 positions. He's moved on the to the Yankees now and wasn't an integral part of the Sox, but he was useful as someone to spell a regular who needed rest. At 33, his defense is still there and the pop in his bat is still there (32 of his 64 hits last season went for extra-bases), but he's not an everyday player, which is sad considering how good he once was.

Key Additions:
Kenny Williams was one of the more active GMs this off-season and I have to hand it to him, besides offering a 3-year deal to Crain, he made some pretty solid moves.


Adam Dunn - RF/1B/DH
I didn't know his nickname was "Big Donkey" (according to Baseball-Reference), but he's certainly as consistent of a masher as there is in the Majors. Since 2004, Dunn has played an average of 158 games per season and has hit an average of 40.28 HRs. That is consistency. Dunn will never be a .300 hitter, but he's a great OBP guy (career .381 mark) and a true slugger (career .521 SLG%). I predict Dunn will fit in great with the White Sox because a) the ballpark is suited to his strengths and b) they will be able to move him around between the field and the DH spot which will preserve his health. The signing cost the White Sox a little coin (4 years/$56M) but at 31 years old, there's no reason to think Dunn won't be valuable through the end of the contract. He provides the left-handed pop they've been looking for and will fit in great with a lineup featuring other bats like Konerko, Rios, Quentin and A. Ramirez.

Jesse Crain - RP
This one stung a little. Crain was easily the most reliable arm in the Twins bullpen last year, re-emerging as a dominant reliever after struggling for a season or so. It's no surprise that Williams wanted Crain, he probably made that decision on Sept. 14th of last year when, with the bases loaded in the bottom of 7th inning in which the Sox were trailing by one run, he saw Crain strike out Konerko and Manny in consecutive at-bats to end the threat. The Twins went on to win that game 9-3 and it was a back-breaker for the Sox. The one thing I don't understand is that Williams gave Crain a 3-year deal...that's almost taboo in baseball. Crain's slider was truly fantastic last year (14.6 runs above avg.) but it was more of an anomaly in his career than anything (previous high on the pitch was 5.8 runs above avg.). Crain could certainly be a good pickup for the Sox, and he may give them an advantage when playing the Twins (maybe), but a three-year deal is foolish.

Will Ohman - RP
This was a good signing for the White Sox because they didn't have to pay too much (2-year/$4M) and because they get a reliable left-handed bullpen arm in return. Ohman's career K/9 numbers aren't shabby (8.87) and he's been fairly consistent over the last several years. The knock on him is that he's wild and his 1.40 career WHIP tells that story. He's nasty against lefties (.200 career avg.) so given the other bullpen pieces the Sox have they'll likely use Ohman as a LOOGY, which he would be good at.

Do the White Sox Have a Farm System?:
I guess the short answer is, "not much of one." It used to be that the Yankees got all of the guff for buying players...now it's the Red Sox that wear that label and I'd like to suggest we start throwing the White Sox into that discussion as well. In the past 4 seasons, the White Sox have brought in the following everyday players: Carlos Quentin, Alex Rios, Jake Peavy, Juan Pierre, Andruw Jones, Ken Griffey Jr., Manny Ramirez and now Adam Dunn and Edwin Jackson. Let's not forget they also traded for AJ Pierzynski a few years back. Sure they brought the likes of John Danks, Gavin Floyd, Gordon Beckham and Alexei Ramirez up through the ranks, but the anthem of the White Sox of late has been, buy Major League ready players by leveraging the farm...which they have done, leaving them with a farm system full of marginal talent. Chris Sale, who will likely be a reliever or even perhaps the Closer this year is the last of the top talent the White Sox have in their system. Brent Morel might get a regular shot this year as well, but he performed poorly in 21 Games at the Major League level last year and projects as average at best.

The Future of the White Sox:
Kenny Williams clearly sees the next few years as being the proverbial "window" for the White Sox to win the World Series again. The Sox have the makings of a solid rotation, they have what looks like a spectacular bullpen, and they juiced their lineup a bit with the addition of Adam Dunn. With the additions they've made this off-season, their team payroll has ballooned to nearly $125M with nearly $90M already committed in contracts for next season as well. This is risky for the Sox because unlike the fan loyalty that the Cubs have, if the White Sox aren't winning, they don't draw well. For example, in the last week of the season last year, when the Sox were out of it, they drew less than 20,000 for the first two games of a series against the Red Sox and only averaged about 23,500 fans for a weekend series against Cleveland that ended the year. If for some reason things don't work out this year, the White Sox could be in trouble because regulars like Pierre, Thornton, Edwin Jackson and Mark Buehrle are free-agents at the end of this season and John Danks, Carlos Quentin, and AJ are free-agents following the 2012 season. That's 3/5ths of your starting rotation, your starting left fielder, your starting right-fielder/DH and your starting catcher that you'd either have to re-sign or replace (Buehrle is likely to retire so you'll have to replace him anyway) within the next 2 seasons. If you're relying on your farm system to help replace some of that talent, there simply isn't much there so you either win now or fall off for awhile.

Breaking Backs

19 games left, 6 game lead. Doing the math, if the Twins go 9-10, the White Sox would have to go 15-4 just to tie. Things are looking good. What was once a series circled multiple times on the calendar in big red marker is now simply mentally circled, a do-or-die series for the White Sox and an opportunity to break the backs of the arch rival for the the Twins. Let's go straight to the pitching matchups, this series probably doesn't need any more fanfare.

Tuesday Night: Francisco Liriano (13-7; 2.37 FIP) v. John Danks (13-10; 3.56 FIP)
My first thought was "great, Liriano will get this series off to a good start." Then I thought to look at his starts this season in which he was the game 1 starter...the results, though limited by sample size, are mediocre. In 8 starts this season where Liriano was the game 1 starter this season, his line:

4.59 ERA
1.31 WHIP
3.125 K/BB
9.57 K/9

Obviously the peripherals are there. In fact, if you take out two rough starts against Detroit in which he gave up 13 earned runs in 7 2/3rds innings over two starts, his series opening ERA drops to 2.45. I still think it's the best possible situation to start this series because it puts extra pressure on the Sox. If the Twins win tonight, the best the Sox can do is gain one game on the Twins, which will leave them 5 out with 16 remaining, a nearly insurmountable advantage for the Twins.
Liriano's opposition will be John Danks who can be downright nasty at times. In 97 innings at home this year, Danks owns a 3.34 ERA and in September so far, he has a 2.08 ERA. He's been less stellar against the Twins this year, but I expect him to pitch well tomorrow night.

Wednesday Night: Brian Duensing (8-2; 3.49 FIP) v. Gavin Floyd (10-12; 3.42 FIP)
After an absolutely ridiculous June and July, Gavin Floyd has come back to earth a bit the last two months posting 4.50+ ERAs in both months so far. Still, Floyd's home ERA is about 1/2 a run less this season. He's been downright terrible against the Twins this year with a 7.41 ERA in 17 innings. Meanwhile, stretch-run hero Brian Duensing continues to turn in quality start after quality start. Duensing's road ERA is almost a 1.5 runs above his home ERA, but when he's on the mound, he always seems to give the Twins a chance to win and I expect he'll do the same this go-around.

Thursday Night: Carl Pavano (16-11; 3.73 FIP) v. Mark Buehrle (12-10; 4.00 FIP)
In my mind, this is the most daunting game of the three simply because if Buehrle can escape the first couple innings of the game, he usually goes on to dominate the Twins. In his last start against the Twins he went 7.0 innings giving up only 5 hits and 1 walk. If Pavano's recent back issue isn't enough to keep him from making this start I'm not entirely sure what they'll get out of him. He's been an absolute horse this season and in his last 10 starts he's given up more than 3 runs only 3 times.

The key for the Twins in this series is going to be their ability to score runs. It's no secret that this Twins team has struggled mightily at times to score on the road and there was no better evidence of that then this past weekend against Cleveland when they managed a meager 7 runs in 3 games, 6 of those runs coming yesterday. U.S. Cellular Field tends to be a launching pad at times so I expect homeruns from both sides, let's hope the Twins can take 2 of 3, and at the very least 1. Anything but a sweep by the Sox and the Twins will be in the catbird's seat.

Dropping the Hammer: Twins vs White Sox Series Preview

Ok, so it doesn't exactly involve the Twins, but any excuse to post this picture is a good one.

I'm almost not sure if I should even be writing about this, so let me just knock on wood right now and get it out of the way. The last time we spoke of the proverbial nail in the coffin of the White Sox, it almost directly coincided with their blazing-hot streak leading up to the All-Star game. For as badly as they started the season and as hot as they were in June and July, the White Sox have cooled as of late, going 7-8 in August compared to the Twins' 10-4. The last time the White Sox came to Target Field in the middle of July, after the Twins had limped into the All-Star break, a seemingly rejuvenated Twins team took three of four to kick off their most recent run of success. Last week in Chicago, the Twins took two of three, pounding out seven home runs during the course of the series. With the Twins' sweep of the A's and the White Sox stumbling late in two weekend games versus the Tigers, the Twins now hold on to a three game lead in the division, with the potential to increase that lead even further with a series win. After this series, the Twins and Sox will only play three more times, in Chicago Sept 14-16, so each head-to-head game takes on increasing importance.

Justin Morneau remains out with concussion symptoms, but the Twins will get Nick Punto and J.J. Hardy back from injuries for tonight's game, at least bolstering infield defensive options (and Hardy's bat will be welcome back as well, as he had been mashing in July and August, posting an impressive .863 OPS in July).

Game 1: Scott Baker vs John Danks

Although Baker picked up the win in last Tuesday's game at US Cellular thanks to the Twins' five-homer explosion, he wasn't all that impressive, going six innings and giving up four runs on eight hits. He did strike out five while walking only one, however, improving his excellent (compared to everyone else not named Cliff Lee) K/BB ratio on the season to 4.07. That mark is good for third among AL starters, behind only Lee and Jered Weaver. Opposing Baker will be John Danks, who held the Twins to only one run on Wednesday over eight strong innings. Delmon Young will be back in the lineup, and I wouldn't be surprised if Jason Repko gets another start in right field to keep as many right-handed bats in the lineup as possible.

Game 2: Francisco Liriano vs Gavin Floyd

The second game of the series will feature an exact rematch of last week's series finale. To borrow from the inimitable Joe Morgan, Liriano turned in a gutsy effort in Thursday's game on a day where he appeared not to have his best stuff. He worked out of a number of jams and got strikeouts in some key spots, even though he only totaled four punchouts on the night. The Twins also seemed to catch Floyd, who has been solid this year, on an off-night, touching him up for six runs. It's always fun to see two talented young pitchers duke it out, and something tells me this may be more of a defensive struggle.

Game 3: Carl Pavano vs Mark Buerhle

If game two features the youngsters, the rubber match will showcase the crafty veterans. The last time these two faced each other, the results were somewhat epic - both pitchers threw complete games (Buerhle for only 8 innings) but Pavano out-dueled Buerhle in Minnesota on July 17th for the 3-2 win, striking out six and walking none. Since then, Pavano has been stellar, winning four of five starts and allowing two runs or less in each. His K/BB ratio hasn't been great at 20:11 over that period, but he's (to borrow from Morgan again) just going out there and getting wins, which is what it's all about, right? Right??

For this crucial series, the Twins and White Sox are both sending out their three best starters, with a great deal riding on the results. With at least a series win, the Twins can further extend their division lead and make it that much more difficult for the White Sox to climb back in the race. I'd hesitate to call a sweep a knockout punch per se, especially given the results of the last two years, but it would certainly send them staggering into the ropes. Save for Morneau, the Twins are looking healthy and well-rested, and they're simply playing some good baseball right now. Let's hope that continues.

The 2nd Best Time of the Year

When you're a baseball fan and your team is "in it," this is the 2nd best time of the year. Whether your team is solidly in 1st, or a couple of games out, or in the hunt for the wild card, it's exciting. Every game, no matter the opponent feels like a 'must-win' and for the Twins, this is what it has felt like for the past month or so. Yesterday the Twins won in come-back fashion and the White Sox lost to the recently rejuvenated Baltimore Orioles, leaving only 1/2 game between the Twins and Sox for 1st place in the AL Central. The Sox have another game today, but there's a slim possibility that the Sox & Twins could be tied atop the AL Central heading into their 3-game series together starting tomorrow. In anticipation of that series, let's look at some numbers...

Minnesota Twins:
Record Since the All-Star Break: (17-7)
Runs scored over those games: 144
Runs given up over those games: 83 (+61 run diff.)
Division Record over that time: (9-4)

Chicago White Sox:
Record Since the All-Star Break: (14-10)
Runs scored over those games: 117
Runs given up over those games: 85 (+32 run diff.)
Division Record over that time: (4-4)

The Twins and Sox have had similarly easy schedules since the all-star break, up to this point, and by easy I mean about as easy as it can get. Consulting ESPN's handy "Hunt for October" feature on the Standings page, we see that both teams have fairly easy schedules in the final 50 games (Sox future opponents have a .486 winning %, Twins future opponents have a .496 winning %) and both teams play more games at home than away. The biggest factor, in my opinion, that will decide the outcome of the AL Central will be the 9 games that the Twins and Sox have remaining against one another. The Twins own the series edge so far this year with 6 victories against 3 defeats, but then again, 6 of those 9 games have been played in Minnesota.

When you look at W-L records within the division, a different picture starts to emerge. The Twins have a stellar 29-16 record against AL Central opponents whereas the White Sox have a very pedestrian 20-21 record. Many of those division losses for the White Sox came in the first couple of months so the numbers are a bit misleading, but the Twins have done extremely well all season against division foes.

With today's news that Kevin Slowey is going to miss a start, the Twins will likely have to do some rotation shuffling but right now, at least on paper anyway, the Twins have some favorable matchups upcoming. Tuesday night features Scott Baker v. Freddy Garcia. In his last 20.1 innings, Baker has only given up 5 runs including 8 innings of shutout baseball against Tampa Bay in his last start. In his only other start against the Sox this year, Baker pitched 7 strong innings, giving up only 1 run while striking out 3 and walking 1. For his career, Baker has held the Sox lineup to a puny .570 OPS. Meanwhile his counterpart, Freddy Garcia, has been quite good of late as well giving up only 1 run in his last start against Detroit (6.2 innings). Garcia has given up a career .814 OPS against the Twins and two Twins players in particular, Joe Mauer (11 for 29) and Jason Kubel (6 for 10), have owned Garcia.

Wednesday's Twins starter is up in the air due to Slowey's back. Unfortunately it looks like they'll be calling on the services of one Glen Perkins (but to his credit, Perkins has been throwing well at Triple-A of late, read that linked article above for more scary tidbits). They can't throw Liriano on short-rest because Gardenhire described his problem as "tired arm" which suggests to me that they'll give him as much rest as they can give him in between starts. Regardless, the opposing pitcher for the Sox is John Danks who has easily been the White Sox most consistent starter all year. The last time he faced the Twins, he was roughed up for 6 runs in 6 innings, and over his career he has given up a .330/.386/.516 line against Twins hitters. That, of course, means nothing though because he owns a 2.86 ERA at home this season. Expect to see a lefty-heavy Twins lineup on Wednesday night.

The final game of the series is easily the best pitching matchup as the Twins cart out Francisco Liriano to counter the White Sox hottest pitcher, Gavin Floyd. Floyd owned a 7.00 ERA on May 16th and has lowered it down to 3.49 in the intervening 3 months. In 5 July starts, his ERA was 0.80. He has slowed up a bit of late, but is still dominating. He has given up a mediocre .323/.364/.496 triple-slash against Twins hitters in his career but again, that means next to nothing because of how well he has pitched over the last 2 months. His last start against the Twins was a good one and White Sox won the game 7-4.

So there it is, a big series during a crucial part of the season. What, you ask, is the best part of the season? That would be the playoffs (if your team is lucky/good enough to make it), and right now, I think the Twins are good enough. Just please, wrap it up in 162, my heart can't take another Game 163...

2010 Year in Preview: Chicago White Sox

This Year in Preview is a team effort, with AK47 taking the Intro, Key Departures and Additions and Conclusion, and (sic) coming in for the Talent en Route and 2011 Free Agency and Salary Outlook.  And now, AK...

My hatred of the White Sox is well documented on this blog. If you want to read more about that, go here, here (a little language on that one, sorry), or here (ok, hate is implied there). They are, however, a major-league baseball team and thus we are obligated to cover them in our analysis of all 30 teams. I will try to be as objective as I can, but really that's not a promise of anything. One final thought before I begin, I hope A.J. Pierzynski gets punched in the face again this year....ok, i think I can contain myself.

2009 Record: 79-83, 7.5GB the DIVISION CHAMPION MINNESOTA TWINS!!

Key Departures:

The White Sox and Kenny Williams were pretty active this off-season mostly out of necessity. Towards the end of last season it was very evident just how old this team was getting, and some moves needed to be made to bring in some younger talent. Here are a couple of the bigger name departures:

Jim Thome (DH) - traded by the Sox last season to the Dodgers, signed as a free-agent this past off-season with the MINNESOTA TWINS! Thome is one of the best people in baseball, I've seen numerous interviews with this guy and he is as genuine as they come. I'm glad he's now a part of the Twins and I'm laughing at the Sox for letting him go because he is exactly the left-handed power bat they now lack. At this point in his career he's only valuable as a DH, but I'll take 20-30 HRs from the DH slot any day.

Jermaine Dye (RF) - unsigned free-agent; Dye is kind of a sad case. A few years ago, Dye was about as consistent as they come and was an all-star back in 2006. Towards the end of last year however, the wheels feel off in every way possible. He couldn't hit, he wasn't fielding his position well, and at 35 we may very well have seen the last of Dye in the major leagues.

Other scrubs that departed the White Sox include: Dewayne Wise CF (free agent, signed minor league deal with Phillies), Scott Podsednik LF (free agent, signed with Royals), D.J. Carrasco RP (free agent, signed minor league deal with Pirates), Octavio Dotel RP (non-tendered, signed with Pirates)

Key Additions:

You know how I mentioned earlier that the Sox were getting old and they needed to bring in some young talent? I don't think Kenny Williams got that memo, here's the list of gray-hairs they brought in during the off-season:

Omar Vizquel (SS) - free-agent from the Rangers; you have to respect Vizquel for his long career and one of the best gloves that the short-stop position has ever seen, but at 42 years old, this guy has what, maybe 1 year left in him? It will be good for Gordon Beckham to learn from a guy like Vizquel, but an old, very light-hitting Vizquel is going to have a hard time staying in the lineup if you ask me.

Andruw Jones (OF) - free-agent from the Rangers; I'm not kidding when I tell you that I heard White Sox beat reporters the other day say that the Sox are excited about this guy. They are either delusional, or are personally injecting Jones with steroids. For the past three years, Jones has played in an average of about 100 games per year with a putrid .207 BA, and a total of 46 HRs and 151 RBI. Oh, and that's including a year where he played almost every game, if you take out that season, it gets much worse. Jones is going to be 33 this year, and barring some sort of miraculous resurrection of his career, he appears to have lost his former ability to mash. This is a big gamble for the Sox, per usual I hope it doesn't pay off.

Juan Pierre (CF) - trade with the Dodgers; the trade for Juan Pierre suggests to me that the Sox are not going to be putting Jones in Center Field, which is probably a good thing for him. Pierre gives you three things; 1) consistency, the dude does not get hurt very often, between 2003 and 2007, he played in every single game. 2) speed on the bases, he averages 44 SBs per 162 games. 3) a quality lead-off hitter; his career average is .301, his career OBP is .348 and he's got the speed, this will be good for a team that will inevitably struggle to score runs.

Mark Teahan (3B) - trade with the Royals; Teahan makes sense offensively (i guess), but defensively this move is laughable. Last year, Gordon Beckham, who looks like one hell of a talent, struggled at 3rd base. So this off-season the White Sox brain-trust decided to put Beckham back at his natural 2B spot. Then they bring in Teahan to play 3rd base,...he has less than a 95% fielding percentage playing 3rd and has committed over 50 errors in just over 1000 chances. Add to that a sub.750 OPS bat, and I foresee the White Sox fans not being terribly pleased with this guy.

Other additions: J.J. Putz RP (free-agent from the Mets); Freddy Dolsi RP (waiver claim from Tigers)

Talent En Route, via (sic)

Hello.

Last year the White Sox graduated one of the best position player prospects in baseball in Gordon Beckham to their MLB team. Accordingly, the high-end talent is a bit depleted from their system.  They still boast a few promising names, however.

Daniel Hudson is a big right-hander who shot up through the White Sox minor league system in 2009, posting good numbers at each level of the minors. Hudson profiles as a #3 starter at best, and the White Sox's rotation is crowded to start 2010.  We may see him get a chance if someone goes down due to injury, or the White Sox could choose to use him in the pen.

Tyler Flowers is another name to watch.  Flowers was the big chip that came from Atlanta in the Javier Vazquez deal, and posted a .302/.445/.548 in AA and a .286/.364/.438 in AAA.  Flowers should take AJ Pierzynski's spot on the team when ole AJ leaves via free agency after the 2010 season, so look for him to spend the year in AAA.

Another name to watch in 2010 is CF Jordan Danks, not to be confused with the White Sox's southpaw John Danks.  Danks was Chicago's seventh round pick in 2008, and tore it up in High A, to the tune of .322/.409/.525. He was promoted to Double A, but struggled due to a wrist injury.  Danks is a big guy, 6'4", 210, but moves well and is speedy.  The knock on him is that scouts don't believe he'll end up hitting for power.  Danks will start 2010 in Double A or Triple A.  

2011 Free Agency and Salary Outlook, via (sic)

The White Sox have acted like a dumbed down version of the mid-00s Yankees as of late, picking up overrated, expensive veterans and sending away cost-controlled talent.  I'm thinking of course of the acquisitions of Alex Rios and Jake Peavy, and the jettisoning of the underrated and very valuable Nick Swisher.  I just wanted to say that by comparison, and in full recognition of the fact that Rios had an off-year by his standards, that Swisher was worth 3.6 WAR in 2009 and Rios was worth -0.1 (cumulative for time spent with Jays and Sox).  

In 2008, the White Sox Opening Day payroll was a record high $121M.  A year later, they reduced it down to $96M, but made several in-season and off-season acquisitions that will bump it higher in 2010, to at least $101M. 

Beyond that, the White Sox have a minimum of $66M committed to the payroll in 2011.  Of that amount, 30M will go to Peavy and Buehrle (16M and 14M, respectively) and Rios and Pierre will receive 20M (roughly 12M and 8M, respectively). The White Sox will also have to factor in significant arbitration raises to John Danks, Bobby Jenks and Carlos Quentin, which could easily push their payroll up to $70M.  Paul Konerko, JJ Putz, Freddy Garcia, Andruw Jones and AJ Pierzynski will all become free agents after 2010, so let's go around the diamond and look at where the White Sox may attempt to make free agent signings.  

C - As discussed above, Flowers should be able to takeover full-time catching duties in 2011.  AK, you're going to have to find a new whipping boy.  Might I suggest Rios?  

1B - Konerko will be gone, so the White Sox will either have to re-sign him or pursue another 1B on the market. 

2B - Gordon Beckham is one of the game's best young position players, and will do just fine at 2B in 2011. 

SS - Alexei Ramirez is the SS for the forseeable future. 

3B - Mark Teahan is scheduled to play 3B for the Sox in 2010, but if Cuban prospect Dayan Viciedo improves on his lackluster professional debut, the Sox could have a cheap source of talent at the hot corner in 2011.  

LF - Juan Pierre is under contract through 2011. 

CF - Rios is the CF of the future, and will make over 50M from 2011-2014.  

RF - Quentin is under team control in 2011. 

DH - The Sox can use a rotating DH in 2010, with Rios, Quentin, Jones and Pierre able to rotate the OF positions.  Kotsay can also spell Konerko at 1B when Konerko needs a rest.  Nevertheless, there isn't a clear, solid DH option in place for 2011. 

SP 1-5: Peavy, Buehrle, Danks and Floyd are all under contract for 2011. 

So, that leaves 1B, 3B and DH as potential free agency targets for the White Sox.  I would have recommended that they never pick up Rios or Pierre, and spend that 20M elsewhere.  Damon would have been a good value signing.  Possible 1B targets for the White Sox in 2011 include Berkman, Pena, Dunn, Konerko, Derrek Lee and Carlos Pena.  Also, Albert Pujols.  Possible 3B targets for the Sox are Adrian Beltre, Brandon Inge, Mike Lowell and Aramis Ramirez. On the DH side, we will see Matsui, Big Pop-Up David Ortiz, Thome, Vlad and the newly-svelte Matt Stairs hit the market.  

My instinct is that the White Sox won't pursue any big name in free agency, but will re-sign Konerko and hope that Viciedo can give them decent production.  If not, I expect them to pursue someone via trade.  I would also expect them to try to get a cheap option for SP5 if their minor league system can't produce an MLB-ready 5th starter.  They've handicapped themselves from a payroll side by acquiring Peavy, Rios and Pierre, but they play in a big enough market that their payroll should be able to support a few more acquisitions in 2011.  Kenny Williams is a crazy cat, so I'm sure the White Sox won't be quiet.

If I might recommend something, I would offer that the White Sox should trade Bobby Jenks.  He'll make $7.5M in 2010, and will only become more expensive in 2011.  They have perfectly fine options in Scott Linebrink (who isn't cheap at $5M) and Matt Thornton.  Jenks is expensive, inconsistent at times, and injury-prone.  If the White Sox want to increase payroll flexibility, they should deal Jenks.  

LOL MLB

Why the Peavy Trade is a Bad Trade

Living in Chicago, I've listened to the sports talk radio guys here fawn over Jake Peavy much the same way they have fawned over Jay Cutler since he was traded to the Bears. No doubt, the Peavy to the White Sox was one of the surprises of this year's action leading up to the trade deadline, but when you look at this deal through the critical lens of reality, the conclusion I am left with is that this was a bad deal for the Sox to make. Numbers don't lie so let's take a look at them.

Peavy has pitched for the San Diego Padres for his entire career up until now and, thus, has benefited greatly from pitching in PETCO Park, which everybody knows is one the most pitcher friendly parks in all of baseball. To me, the home/road splits for Jake Peavy foretell what is to come.

Career Home ERA: 2.83

Career Home WHIP: 1.092

Career Home BAA: .219

Career Home BAbip: .288

Career Road ERA: 3.84

Career Road WHIP: 1.299

Career Road BAA: .246

Career Road BAbip: .289

Another reason I don't think that Peavy will look the same with the White Sox is the fact that he will be playing against American League opponents instead of National League ones. What are his stats against the American League?

Career Interleague ERA: 3.29

Career Interleague WHIP: 1.172

Career Interleague BAA: .235

Career Interleague BAbip: .281

The above numbers show what the White Sox can expect when Peavy finally starts pitching for them, which will probably not be until 2010. Peavy's ERA is a full point higher when not pitching at PETCO, and not only that his numbers against American League opponents are substantially higher overall. No doubt he will continue to be a valuable pitcher, but the Sox are not getting the lights-out, ace-type of pitcher than merits trading away 4 pitchers, 2 of whom have major league experience.

Clayton Richard was, at the time of the trade, in the starting rotation with the Sox and had performed decently with a 4.65 ERA in 14 starts. Aaron Poreda was considered to be the Sox #1 prospect and had compiled a 2.65 ERA with 244Ks in 281 innings in the minor leagues. Dexter Carter was another highly-touted propect in the Sox system who had compiled a 2.80 ERA with 232Ks in 186.2 innings at Rookie and Low-A ball. Adam Russell, the 4th player traded to the Padres in the deal, was the "worst" out of the bunch but still had a decent minor league track record, loggin a 3.82ERA with 400Ks in 556.1 innings during 6 minor league seasons.

If I'm the Padres, this is a major win. First of all, you got rid of a guy who was going to make $56 million dollars between now and the end of the 2012 season. Second, you got Clayton Richard, who can step into the rotation immediately (and probably benefit greatly from pitching in such spacious confines). Thirdly, you got 2 of the White Sox top 10 pitching prospects, one of whom is probably going to be pitching for you as soon as next season.

Like I said, when you look at this trade through the lens of reality, you see how much of a gamble this is for the Sox, not only in what they gave up to get Peavy, but also in how much they are expecting of a guy who is a) coming from the one of the best pitchers ballparks in the National League and b) has a history of injuries. U.S. Cellular Field is one of the top 5 most hitter friendly parks in baseball AND it's the American League. My prediction, Peavy falls on his face, can't wait to watch it happen.

All stats provided by Baseball Reference.