Previewing the AL Central: Chicago White Sox

Last year it was the starting rotation of the White Sox that had everyone talking. Peavy, Danks, Floyd, Buehrle, etc. Going into the year, it looked like one of the best rotations in the game...then Floyd had a rough start, Peavy feel apart physically, and Buehrle continued his slow swan-song to retirement. The Sox had a good run in June only for the wheels to fall off shortly after the All-Star Break, which was enjoyable to watch. This year, the Sox come in with a different look and different questions. Now the lineup looks formidable, but the starting pitching has question marks...

2010 Record: 88-74; 2nd place, 6GB the 1st place Minnesota Twins


Key Departures:
The White Sox managed to lose only the dead-weight from their team.

Bobby Jenks - RP/Closer
You could hear the discontent start in the middle of last year and it only got louder as the year went on. First there were questions about Jenks weight, then he gave up a few games here and there and finally there were the physical issues. In reality, it was simply a bad luck year. Jenks has a career .294 BABIP and last year it shot up to .345. and that was despite a substantial increase in GB%. Nothing probably highlights Jenks unluckiness better than looking at his ERA (4.44) vs. his FIP (2.59) and his xFIP (2.62). Jenks was still good for a 1.5WAR but if you asked the average White Sox fan what they thought of Jenks they'd say, "good riddance!" Do I think the Sox will miss Jenks? No. They have Matt Thornton and Chris Sale, both of whom are flame throwers and both of whom could fill the role of closer just fine. The Red Sox though got one heck of a pitcher who will likely do wonders for the Boston bullpen and who could very easily overtake Papelbon as the closer if Pap struggles out of the gate.

Manny Ramirez - LF/DH
I suppose it didn't cost the White Sox that much in the end ($3.8M), but Ramirez did absolutely nothing to earn that money and the Sox were probably more than happy to see him leave after the season was over. Now he's reunited with Johnny Damon ("isn't that special") in Tampa Bay and baseball history will barely remember than Ramirez spent a month with the White Sox. Not much to say here, the White Sox won't miss him.

Andruw Jones - OF/DH
For the playing time that he got last year, Jones actually performed better than I thought he would. He almost hit 20 HRs and he had a respectable .827 OPS. He did nothing to defile himself in the outfield, logging time and playing well at each of the 3 positions. He's moved on the to the Yankees now and wasn't an integral part of the Sox, but he was useful as someone to spell a regular who needed rest. At 33, his defense is still there and the pop in his bat is still there (32 of his 64 hits last season went for extra-bases), but he's not an everyday player, which is sad considering how good he once was.

Key Additions:
Kenny Williams was one of the more active GMs this off-season and I have to hand it to him, besides offering a 3-year deal to Crain, he made some pretty solid moves.


Adam Dunn - RF/1B/DH
I didn't know his nickname was "Big Donkey" (according to Baseball-Reference), but he's certainly as consistent of a masher as there is in the Majors. Since 2004, Dunn has played an average of 158 games per season and has hit an average of 40.28 HRs. That is consistency. Dunn will never be a .300 hitter, but he's a great OBP guy (career .381 mark) and a true slugger (career .521 SLG%). I predict Dunn will fit in great with the White Sox because a) the ballpark is suited to his strengths and b) they will be able to move him around between the field and the DH spot which will preserve his health. The signing cost the White Sox a little coin (4 years/$56M) but at 31 years old, there's no reason to think Dunn won't be valuable through the end of the contract. He provides the left-handed pop they've been looking for and will fit in great with a lineup featuring other bats like Konerko, Rios, Quentin and A. Ramirez.

Jesse Crain - RP
This one stung a little. Crain was easily the most reliable arm in the Twins bullpen last year, re-emerging as a dominant reliever after struggling for a season or so. It's no surprise that Williams wanted Crain, he probably made that decision on Sept. 14th of last year when, with the bases loaded in the bottom of 7th inning in which the Sox were trailing by one run, he saw Crain strike out Konerko and Manny in consecutive at-bats to end the threat. The Twins went on to win that game 9-3 and it was a back-breaker for the Sox. The one thing I don't understand is that Williams gave Crain a 3-year deal...that's almost taboo in baseball. Crain's slider was truly fantastic last year (14.6 runs above avg.) but it was more of an anomaly in his career than anything (previous high on the pitch was 5.8 runs above avg.). Crain could certainly be a good pickup for the Sox, and he may give them an advantage when playing the Twins (maybe), but a three-year deal is foolish.

Will Ohman - RP
This was a good signing for the White Sox because they didn't have to pay too much (2-year/$4M) and because they get a reliable left-handed bullpen arm in return. Ohman's career K/9 numbers aren't shabby (8.87) and he's been fairly consistent over the last several years. The knock on him is that he's wild and his 1.40 career WHIP tells that story. He's nasty against lefties (.200 career avg.) so given the other bullpen pieces the Sox have they'll likely use Ohman as a LOOGY, which he would be good at.

Do the White Sox Have a Farm System?:
I guess the short answer is, "not much of one." It used to be that the Yankees got all of the guff for buying players...now it's the Red Sox that wear that label and I'd like to suggest we start throwing the White Sox into that discussion as well. In the past 4 seasons, the White Sox have brought in the following everyday players: Carlos Quentin, Alex Rios, Jake Peavy, Juan Pierre, Andruw Jones, Ken Griffey Jr., Manny Ramirez and now Adam Dunn and Edwin Jackson. Let's not forget they also traded for AJ Pierzynski a few years back. Sure they brought the likes of John Danks, Gavin Floyd, Gordon Beckham and Alexei Ramirez up through the ranks, but the anthem of the White Sox of late has been, buy Major League ready players by leveraging the farm...which they have done, leaving them with a farm system full of marginal talent. Chris Sale, who will likely be a reliever or even perhaps the Closer this year is the last of the top talent the White Sox have in their system. Brent Morel might get a regular shot this year as well, but he performed poorly in 21 Games at the Major League level last year and projects as average at best.

The Future of the White Sox:
Kenny Williams clearly sees the next few years as being the proverbial "window" for the White Sox to win the World Series again. The Sox have the makings of a solid rotation, they have what looks like a spectacular bullpen, and they juiced their lineup a bit with the addition of Adam Dunn. With the additions they've made this off-season, their team payroll has ballooned to nearly $125M with nearly $90M already committed in contracts for next season as well. This is risky for the Sox because unlike the fan loyalty that the Cubs have, if the White Sox aren't winning, they don't draw well. For example, in the last week of the season last year, when the Sox were out of it, they drew less than 20,000 for the first two games of a series against the Red Sox and only averaged about 23,500 fans for a weekend series against Cleveland that ended the year. If for some reason things don't work out this year, the White Sox could be in trouble because regulars like Pierre, Thornton, Edwin Jackson and Mark Buehrle are free-agents at the end of this season and John Danks, Carlos Quentin, and AJ are free-agents following the 2012 season. That's 3/5ths of your starting rotation, your starting left fielder, your starting right-fielder/DH and your starting catcher that you'd either have to re-sign or replace (Buehrle is likely to retire so you'll have to replace him anyway) within the next 2 seasons. If you're relying on your farm system to help replace some of that talent, there simply isn't much there so you either win now or fall off for awhile.

Previewing the AL Central: Cleveland Indians

I remember when I was a senior in high school and my dad and I took a trip, visiting colleges along the way. Our trip took us near Jacobs Field (now Progressive Field) and as you come in from the south on Hwy. 90, there it stands, quite majestic looking. At the time, the Indians were good, or had just recently been good, and had that record-breaking sellout streak (that has since been broken) so it was kinda magical seeing the stadium. Anyway, that's really the only fond memory I could think of regarding the Indians. Fast-forward 10 years and you've got a perennial loser in a city full of dismal sports teams. I don't want to spend a lot of time on this one, so here goes.

2010 Record: 39-93; 4th place, 25GB the 1st place Minnesota Twins

Key Departures:
This was the first off-season for the Indians new GM Chris Antonetti. To say that he was quiet...would be an understatement. The Indians didn't lose a single player worth noting, nor did they bring anyone in worth noting.

Key Additions:
In short, they re-signed Austin Kearns to a one-year deal, avoided arbitration with Shin-Soo Choo, Asdrubal Cabrera, Chris Perez and Rafael Perez, and offered a slew of players minor-league deals with invitations to Spring Training. Other than that, nothing. Except:

Mike Hargrove - Former Head Coach
This is a the proverbial rabbit in the hat folks, former head coach Mike Hargrove re-joined the Indians as a special consultant. According to the Mariners blog, Seattle PI, Hargrove will, "handle a variety of roles, the Indians said Tuesday. He will assist manager Manny Acta's staff in spring training, appear on game broadcasts and help with business, community and charity work." This could simply be a PR move on the part of the Indians front-office as their fan base continues to get more and more disenfranchised, or it could be a legitimate attempt to bring some success back to the organization. Likely it's a combination of both, but I'm not sure it will help because Hargrove isn't likely to have much authority.

Taking a Look at the Farm:
I gather that the Indians strategy heading into this season goes something like this: hope the players that were hurt last year come back and produce and also use the some of the resources in our fairly deep farm-system to put together a competitive team. This could work, particularly because the Indians farm system is pretty deep, not quite as good as the Royals, but the Indians have a number of intriguing pieces that are almost MLB-ready.

Jason Kipnis - 2B
This kid is definitely slated to be the new Indians 2nd baseman and that transition could come as early as opening day. Last year he hit well at High-A ball (.300/.387/.478) and then hit even better at Double-A (.311/.385/.502). With a .965 career fielding percentage in the minors, he's now wowing anyone with his defense, but your bat keeps you in the lineup and Kipnis has plenty of that. Baseball Prospectus projects him as a late-2011 arrival, but the Indians don't have any depth at 2B so I wouldn't be surprised in the least if he makes the jump earlier rather than later. At 23, he's old enough for his first shot and if his track record so far is any indication, he'll do just fine.

In the, "definitely appearing this year" department:

Bryce Stowell - RP
Stowell made bunch of stops last year (A, AA, and AAA) and combined, he had himself a fine year. In just over 67 innings, he struck out 102 batters and managed a 2.14 ERA and 1.16 WHIP. Not bad for a 23-year-old. He has an upper-90's fastball which is his main weapon and it's highly likely he'll pitch with the Major League club this season.

A guy to pay attention to:

Drew Pomeranz - SP
Drew was drafted with the 5th pick in last year's draft and looks like he'll be a good one. Think left-handed Chad Billingsley. No joke, this kid is 6'5" and 235lbs., throws his fastball 90-93mph, but scouts really rave about his curveball. The knock on him is that he's wild at times, but most of that has been chalked up to his odd delivery, something the Indians might address at his first stop in the minors (High-A). As a hard-throwing lefty, he automatically has potential, definitely worth watching this year and next to see how he progresses.

The Future of the Cleveland Indians:
For 7 out of the last 9 seasons, the Indians have finished at .500 or below. It's hard to remember that they made the ALCS in 2007, it's like a have a blank spot in my mind there...I digress. The last 15 years of Indians history has been marked by defeat and heart-wrenching loss. Starting in 1995, they lost playoff series in 6 out of 7 seasons including World Series losses to Atlanta and Florida. Last year was Manny Acta's first season, following a pretty miserable run under the direction of Eric Wedge. Acta will likely have a couple more seasons to turn things around and with a small crop of young talent coming up in the next 2 years, he outta have a decent shot at it. With players like Shin-Soo Choo, Asdrubal Cabrera, Carlos Santana and Matt LaPorta to build around (and don't forget about Grady Sizemore too, he's still only 27) they have a nice young nucleus to build around, and they have a city that is DYING for one of their sports teams to do something halfway decent.
One major factor hindering the Indians success has been their lack of starting pitching, though when you remember they traded away CC Sabathia AND Cliff Lee in the last 3 years, it's hard to feel sorry for them. Until they find a handful of decent starters, they'll continue to struggle, no matter who is in the lineup. Their young talent is exciting though and they've played the AL Central pretty tough the last few years so they're still relevant despite recent struggles.

Previewing the AL Central: Detroit Tigers

The Tigers have had an active off-season and look like they could be legitimate contenders this year, but don't we say that every year?

2010 Record: 81-81; 3rd place, 13GB the 1st place Minnesota Twins

Key Departures:
The Tigers didn't really lose anyone who was integral to the team last year, they lost a few role players, here's a brief list:

* Johnny Damon
* Armando Galarraga
* Gerald Laird
* Adam Everett
* Jeremy Bonderman
* Bobby Seay

Damon is easily the headliner of this group, though I doubt the Tigers will miss him much. He has the knack for a big hit now and again, but he has become slow and is only an average outfielder, plus he's becoming injury prone at this stage of his career. Laird is a handy utility man, but again, nothing more than a role player. Jeremy Bonderman could very well re-sign, though at this point it looks like he may be going to the Indians. Seay is also a free-agent, so who knows. Galarraga, who now lives in eternal baseball lore, was traded to the Diamondbacks, but much like the bats of the hitters he faced, he won't be missed. Bottom-line: the Tigers didn't lose much this off-season.

Key Additions:
I like what the Tigers have added this off-season and I'm somewhat jealous.

Victor Martinez - FA - BOS
Martinez signed a tidy 4-year, $50M deal and will likely split time between DH and Catcher this season. Probably most importantly though, he will provide some serious lineup protection for Miguel Cabrera, making the Tiger offense quite potent. Martinez' ability to play a position will also allow the Tigers to spell Magglio Ordonez from time to time which should keep him healthier. At 31, Martinez should still have some good years left in him and at $12.5M per, he wouldn't be too hard to trade either if Detroit chose to go a different direction in a couple of years. I think it was a good move for them on a lot of fronts.

Joaquin Benoit - FA - TAM
Is there a more fun name to say in the Major Leagues? The Tigers took quite a gamble with this move in a number of ways, first, they gave him a 3-year ($16.5M) deal...he's already 31 years old. Also, aside from last season with Tampa Bay, Benoit has never been a particularly dominant pitcher. He has a career 4.47 ERA and last year's mark of 11.2 K/9 far overshadows his career 8.5 K/9 average. I'm not gonna knock the guy, he had a fantastic year but it simply does not merit such a contract. Who knows, maybe Benoit recaptures last year's magic, but more than likely he'll return to being an average reliever and Detroit will be saddled with an annual $5.5M salary for the next three seasons.

Brad Penny - FA - STL
This was another solid move by the Tigers. On December 8th, they finalized a one-year, $3M deal with Penny with an additional $3M in incentives. Penny is nothing special, but the Tigers really only need back-of-the-rotation help and Penny will fill that role just fine. If it's true that Penny is healthy entering this season, $3M could be a steal.


Coming Up on the Farm:
Though the Tigers have made a lot of moves in the past few years, it hasn't resulted in a very deep farm system. In fact, the Tigers had zero 1st round picks in last year's draft and boast only a select few high-caliber prospects. Here's a couple of their best:

Jacob Turner - RHP
Turner was drafted in 2009 out of Westminster Christian HS (different one than A-Rod) and did well in his first professional season, splitting his year between Low-A and High-A ball. In ~115 innings, he compiled a 3.28ERA, 1.11 WHIP to go along with a very impressive 4.43 K/BB ratio. At 6'5" and 210lbs., he certainly has the frame to support a power arm, and he's young (19 years old) so he'll have plenty of time to develop complimentary pitches. I suspect the Tigers will not rush him along, so realistically we're looking at 2012-13 for his debut on the big stage.

Nick Castellanos - 3B

Nick is probably the only other Tiger prospect worth a whole lot of excitement over. He was drafted out HS in this past year's supplemental draft and because of signing demands he made, he fell quite a bit. He projects as a good hitter and fielder, though he's only played 7 games at Rookie Level, so we'll have to wait till he plays a full season a Low-A/High-A before we can pass more informed judgments. He's worth watching, Baseball Prospectus says, "Many scouts saw Castellanos as the best pure high school hitter in the draft. Despite his tall frame and long arms, his trigger-free swing gets into the zone quickly, and stays there a long time. He should develop power as his body fills out, and although he's not a monster athlete, he is an average runner once he gets going."

The Future of the Tigers:

Who can really say? I can't count how many times I've thought, "man, the Tigers look good this year," only to see them fade away mid-season, doomed to another .500 season. I wouldn't be surprised if Jim Leyland's seat gets a little hotter this season. Management gave him a couple of new, expensive toys and he has the nucleus of talent (Cabrera, Verlander, etc) to make a run at a division title...but he's had that nucleus now for a few seasons and hasn't been able to do much with it. This is Leyland's last season under contract, so if the Tigers once again fall short, he might just be shown the door.

As far as the talent on the field goes, it's there. Miguel Cabrera is a great hitter to build a lineup around and with the addition of V-Mart, the Tigers have to potential to be offensively virile. Austin Jackson and Brennan Boesch will have to prove that their 2010 seasons weren't flukes...I think Jackson has a great shot to prove it, I think it will be more difficult on Boesch. How much would the Tigers love to see Rick Porcello bounce back? Verlander will highlight the rotation once again, followed up by Max Scherzer, Porcello, Penny and a likely Triple-A callup (early indications point to Alfredo Figaro or Andy Oliver).

The future of the Tigers is somewhat murky. Their farm system isn't particularly deep, but they have a good young group of players that they can build on. Boesch, Jackson, Porcello, Cabrera (still only 27), Scherzer, Avila; all are good looking youngsters with a little bit of Major League experience already under their belts. I guess the Tigers fortunes will go as those players go, if they continue to produce, the Tigers will be there, if not, they'll continue to be a mediocre team.

Previewing the AL Central: Kansas City Royals

Last year, we were a bit over-ambitious and tried to do a somewhat lengthy preview of every team in Major League Baseball. We didn't end up finishing before the season started...and ironically enough, the one team we didn't preview (the SF Giants) ended up winning the World Series. So I'm gonna scale it back this year and just preview the AL Central teams, starting with the lowly Kansas City Royals.

2010 Record: 67-95; 5th place, 27GB the 1st place Minnesota Twins

Key Departures:
The Zack Greinke trade is probably the only departure worth talking about, I have to say that it surprised me that it was the Brewers that landed him. Greinke was wasting away in Kansas City, he's been pretty much the only reason to watch the Royals in the past few years. It will be interesting to see how Greinke's somewhat fragile psyche handles a new environment with a possible contender. I still think the Brewers won't make the playoffs, after Greinke and Gallardo, who do they have to pitch? Anyway, the Royals got a nice haul in return for Greinke which I analyzed in this piece.
Other notable departures include Gil Meche who left $12M on the table by retiring because he didn't feel he deserved the money. Other than that, no one is really a "key" departure.

Key Arrivals:
No one immediately qualifies on this list as "key" except, I think, Alcides Escobar. Escobar saw his first full season of Major League action last season and though it was a big disappointment from the plate, his fielding at SS was solid and his Minor League track record suggests that the bat will come around. He'll be an interesting player to watch, having been ranked as high as #12 in the Top-100 prospects coming into the 2010 season.
As many have talked about, the Royals tout one of the best, if not the very best, farm systems in all of baseball. For the past few years they have been stocking up and that payoff is probably only a couple of years off. They have 5-star talent at a bunch of different positions and several good-looking young pitchers coming up in the ranks. Their team payroll for this coming season will be extremely low (~$33M) and should remain relatively low, allowing them to retain some of the talent they have coming up. They recently re-upped with the only Major League star, Billy Butler, signing him to a 4-year, $30M deal. The point, they're young and their talent houses are STOCKED.

A Brief Look at that Farm System:
I probably won't do this for every team in the AL Central, but the Royals Top 5 is worth taking a little deeper look at, I'm using Baseball Prospectus ranking for the Top 5 in the system.

1. Mike Moustakas (3B)
Having played 52 games at AAA last season, Mike may very well get the call-up this season. He had an absolutely monster season between AA and AAA last year combining to hit 36HRs, drive in 124, all while batting .293 in a season where his BABIP was only .271. Moustakas looks like the real deal and the best part of his game from an offensive standpoint is that he's not your HR-or-nothing type guys. His career K% in the minors is 13.1% and his BB% is 5.3%. He could probably use a little more patience, but hey, he's only 21 years old. He's nothing special defensively and not particularly speedy either, but we could be looking a future-superstar at the plate.

2. John Lamb (LHP)
Given that the Royals starting pitching is a big question mark coming into 2011, we could see Lamb sooner rather than later. He had a great year last year, breezing through Low-A and High-A before struggling a bit at Double-A. According to BP, he'll start the year at Double-A Northwest Arkansas and depending on his performance, he could break through with the Big League club before the end of this season. Lamb had a 9.7 K/9 rate last season and he reportedly possesses 3 plus pitches, all of which he locate well. Being that he's a lefty, he's already got a leg-up on the competition, I would be willing to bet we'll see Lamb this season, though perhaps in a bullpen role where they can limit his innings.


3. Eric Hosmer (1B)
Holy crap.Hosmer's batting line between High-A and Double-A last year? .338/.406/.571 with 20HRs, 43 doubles and 9 triples. There's probably some regression lurking in there somewhere, he did have a .382 BABIP in 87Gs at High-A ball. He's worth keeping on eye on certainly, he'll be starting the year at Double-A and is likely a year or two away from the Majors (he's only 20) due to the re-signing of Billy Butler. Again, with Hosmer, you have a potential slugger who also possesses a good eye, definitely has star potential.

4. Wil Myers (OF)
Again, holy crap...it's unbelievable how many young hitters the Royals have in their organization. Myers split time between Low-A and High-A last season and at High-A, he had a .346/.453/.512 line in 58Gs. He's only 20 years old so he'll likely be percolating in the minors for another season, and there might even be a position change in there somewhere, but again, another prospect with potential star-power.

5. Mike Montgomery (LHP)
Montgomery and Lamb are very similar pitchers in that their fastballs hover right around the same speed (92-94, touching 96) and they both have good command of multiple pitches. Lamb is 6' 3" and 195lbs, Montgomery is 6' 5" and 180lbs. They're both lefties and they'll both be at Double-A Northwest Arkansas to start this season. Montgomery had some arm issues last season which limited his innings, but BP says, "there are no red flags in his frame or mechanics, [but] he's unproven as an innings eater."

The Future of the Royals:
Last year, I wrote this:

"Ok, check this out. In the last 8 years, the Royals have lost over 100 games 4 times. They have not made a playoff appearance since 1985. They have not finished higher than 3rd in the division in 15 years and that was in the strike-shortened year, so really it's been 20 years. The Royals have had ONE SEASON above .500 in the past 16 years. This team, along with the Pirates and Nationals, has defined mediocrity for the last quarter of a century. To say I have any optimism about this team would be ridiculous. Their management and ownership has shown that they know nothing about how to run a baseball team and their ineptitude is historic."

I still feel the same in a lot of ways, but I can no longer say that there is no reason for optimism about this team. I feel for Royals fans, much in the same way I feel for Pirates fans, there has been precious little to get excited about for a long time. Though the Royals are probably looking down the barrel of another 95-100 loss season, they've got some serious talent in the wings that could change their fortunes within the next 3-5 years. This is worth getting excited about! The best news is that a lot of this talent should emerge at about the same time and, if all things go the right way, they Royals could be a contending team in 2013, 2014 and beyond. So, to the Royals fans out there, stick with it, better times might be just a couple of seasons away.