The Key to the Jon Lester: Jake Arrieta

One of the great things about this blog revamp is that I'm not longer beholden to only writing about the Twins. Here's my first non-Twins related blogpost.

By now, everyone has heard about the Cubs signing of Jon Lester to a 6-year, $155MM contract (with a $30MM signing bonus!) and I've seen numerous Cubs fans on Twitter now talking about how the Cubs are surely World Series bound. I love the optimism. I'm not here to squash those dreams but instead, I'm here to look at the Cubs rotation after Lester which, in my mind, leaves a lot to be desired.

One of the things I've been seeing on Twitter is this excitement surrounding a 1-2 punch of Lester and Arrieta. I understand the Lester excitement as he's been one of the best left-handed pitchers in MLB for the last several years. As for Arrieta however, he had a great 2014 campaign, but even a cursory glance at his numbers prior to 2013 makes one pause and perhaps pull back a little on the excitement about the Cubs #2 starter.

Arrieta was drafted out of college by the Baltimore Orioles in 2007. He rose fairly quickly with the Orioles and made his Major League debut in 2010 at the age of 24. He had been on the prospect radars but was never very highly ranked (#67 by Baseball America and #52 by Baseball Prospectus) so his arrival at the Big League level was quiet. During his rookie season he started 18 games for the Orioles compiling a 4.66 ERA over 100+ innings and had pretty lackluster peripherals including a 4.7 K/9 ratio, a 4.3 BB/9 ratio, an 89 ERA+, and a 4.76 FIP (5.17 xFIP).

Arrieta went on to miss parts of the 2010 and 2011 seasons due to bone spurs in his pitching elbow - a problem that was ultimately corrected via surgery in 2011. In 2012 Arrieta made the Opening Day roster but was mostly horrible through the first 3 months of the season before being demoted back to Triple-A at the beginning of July. In 2013, he again made the Opening Day roster, was again terrible, and was subsequently demoted to Triple-A again in Late April. It was at that point the Orioles decided to bail on Arrieta and they traded him to the Cubs. The Cubs gave Arrieta another shot in August of 2013 and he ended up pitching pretty well, compiling a 3.66 ERA over 9 starts to end the 2013 season.

Arrieta developed shoulder inflammation in Spring Training prior to the 2014 season and ended up missing the first 27 games of the year. His first start of the year was May 3rd and from then on, he was nothing short of spectacular for the rest of the season. He ended up giving the Cubs 156+ innings in 2014, had a sparkling 2.53 ERA, 0.98 WHIP (2.26 FIP, 2.73 xFIP) and had a stunning 9.6 K/9 ratio. I say stunning because prior to the 2014 season, Arrieta had a 6.9 K/9 ratio.

The biggest question with Arrieta is "was 2014 a fluke or did the Cubs change something in Arrieta's delivery, or arsenal, that contributed to this dramatic turnaround?" A few people in the blogosphere who are much better at explaining these things, have taken a stab at this question. In looking purely at the numbers, there are some indications that Arrieta made some significant changes and that his results from 2014 are something he can sustain into the future. The most significant difference you can see in the numbers is his lowered BB/9 rate. From 2010-2013, he walked an average of 4 batters per 9 innings. In 2014, he walked a mere 2.4 per 9. Another standout change is in the rate at which Arrieta induced ground balls. He has always been a ground ball pitcher, but he went from inducing ground balls about 43% of the time, to up around 49% of the time, or an increase of about 14%.

I took a look at Arrieta's PitchFX numbers (pitch speed) and his fastball averaged 93.4mph last seasons which is very typical of his entire career to this point...so a velocity change doesn't explain the different results. If you look at his pitch selection, however, one very interesting thing comes up. In his 3+ seasons prior to joining the Cubs, he threw his fastball roughly 60-65% of the time. In 2014, that number dropped to 47.5% of the time, and Arrieta added a Cut Fastball to his repertoire. That pitch, in particular, is probably the biggest reason for Arrieta's turnaround (in my opinion). Not only was that pitch worth a staggering 15.0 runs above average (stats courtesy of Fan Graphs), but the addition of a cutter made his regular straight fastball worlds more effective. Arrieta's swinging strike percentage went from being around 7% to north of 10%...this is, in large part, the reason he went from being a guy who had a K/9 around 7, to a guy with a K/9 rate of almost 10.

So, in summary, Arrieta with the Cubs has been a guy who walks less batters, strikes out more batters, induces more ground balls, has an improved arsenal of pitches and looks more like an Ace than a back-of-the-rotation pitcher. Now - having said all of that, I believe the jury is still out on Arrieta. One thing that can't be overlooked is his injury history. He had bone spurs with the Orioles, his Cubs career started out with shoulder discomfort and over the course of his career, he has yet to top 160 innings in a season (at the Major League level). He also only has one good season to hang his hat on. Maybe the cutter will change him forever. Or maybe he reverts back to the guy who walks a lot of guys. Either scenario is possible and until he has another great season, I don't think you say for sure, one way or the other.

In the ways that matter on the field, Arrieta really is the key to the Lester trade. If Arrieta continues to look like his 2014 self, the Cubs have a potential ace-ace 1 and 2 starter combo. If Arrieta reverts back to his old ways, then the Cubs have Jon Lester and a bunch of mid-rotation guys in Arrieta, Hammel, and someone chosen from the pile of Edwin Jackson, Travis Wood, Tsuyoshi Wada, etc. They also have Kyle Hendricks who is an intriguing young arm and who was impressive following his call-up in July, but who has yet to be tested in a full season at the Major League level.

A career-turnaround like Arrieta had in 2014 is impressive and the numbers and data provide many reasons to believe he is now a different pitcher. He's also pitching in the National League instead of the American League East which probably doesn't hurt either. For the Cubs' sake, I hope he continues with the success he had in '14. If he can, this Cubs team starts to look a whole lot more fearsome in 2015...World Series material even...

Realignment is Ridiculous

I was listening to Mike & Mike on ESPN radio this morning on my drive into work and they were talking about realignment in baseball and my blood started to boil. Greeny was floating his "idea" out there and it goes something like this:

* Get rid of divisions and instead have two 15-team leagues
* Every team in League A plays every team from League B for one 3 game series every year
* The rest of a team's games are spread out evenly against teams in their own league
* Have a rolling inter-league schedule to compensate for the odd number of teams in each league

His reason for realignment? "Fairness and equality." I'm sorry, but since when is "fairness" and "equality" the standard in professional sports?? And since when do we entertain the idea of altering divisions and leagues for the sake of a couple of teams who play in the AL East (Orioles & Blue Jays)?? This is ridiculous. First of all, baseball is INHERENTLY "unfair" because of the absence of a salary cap. Every individual ball club determines how much they want to spend on payroll. Realignment would only be a band-aid solution...and a bad one at that. Second, this isn't rec. league t-ball. This is pro sports, a land where fairness and equality don't matter. If you're a GM/Team President and you want your team to be better, bring in better scouts, pursue the bigger name free-agents, find a way to put butts in the seats; that is the name of the game afterall.

The Steinbrenners don't have more money than the other owners (ok, maybe they do, but all of the owners in baseball are multi-millionaires, billionaires, whatever), they simply choose to funnel more of their money into their baseball team and it pays off with winning ball clubs and world championships. If a team wants to go about it in a cheaper manner, they have the option of adopting a strategy similar to what the Tampa Bay Rays employ...advanced stats consultants, finding cutting edge methods to identify young talent, making savvy moves to bring in talent via free-agency and trades, etc. Just because the Orioles and Jays are stuck in a division that includes the Yankees and Red Sox doesn't mean we should try and fix it by realigning both leagues.

There really aren't many excuses for a low-payroll team in MLB. 1) You've got revenue-sharing in which large-market/high-payroll teams like the Yankees, Red Sox, Phillies, etc make payments to smaller market ball clubs. 2) The MLB draft favors teams who perform poorly and if you've got a team like the Royals who are near the bottom of the league every year, you can start to accumulate talent through the draft and build a ball club cheaply that way (as they have done). 3) Almost every team in baseball has some sort of TV deal these days which is another way to generate a lot of revenue. Blah, blah, blah.

I get tired of this "fairness" and "equality" BS. I remember when I was kid playing rec. league t-ball and my team would clearly lay a whupping on the other team and at the end of the game the coaches would say it was a "tie." I was beside myself, even at 6-years-old. In life as in baseball there are winners and losers...why our society feels the need the deny this reality is beyond me. If the Orioles and Jays want to compete in the AL East, I suggest they find creative ways to do so, either that or spend more money. It really is that simple. I don't care if it isn't fair, I don't care if it's not equal and I'm 100% against re-arranging the divisions in baseball so that teams like them have a better shot at making the playoffs.

/steps off soapbox
//resumes day

2010 Year in Preview: Baltimore Orioles

The Orioles are one of those teams you kinda have to have some pity for. They have the budget of a small market team in the midst of an absolutely LOADED AL East, and for all the prospective talent they have, you have to wonder if they will be able to legitimately compete when the payrolls of their competition (Yankees and Red Sox) are 3 times as large. As I mentioned however, they do have some fairly exciting young talent that they may be able to build upon soon.

As a side-note while we're on the topic of Baltimore, if you've never watched the HBO Series "The Wire," you're missing out. "The Wire" takes place in Baltimore and is one of the best TV series ever produced (in this author's humble opinion). Just a word of warning: It's not the faint of heart.

2009 Record: (64-98), last place, 39GB the Division and World Champion New York Yankees

Key Departures:

3B Melvin Mora (free agent signed with Colorado), RP Chris Ray (Traded to the Rangers)

Melvin Mora is only a big name in that he played 3rd base for the Orioles for the past 10 years. He's 38 years old and probably nearing the end of his career. I'm not close with the beat of Orioles fans so I have no idea if his departure has been met with sadness or not, but he has certainly been a figure since Cal Ripken Jr. retired in 2001. As for Chris Ray, he was not much of a force with the Orioles, and I don't think they lost much here.

Key Arrivals:
RP Mike Gonzalez (free agent signing from the Braves), 1B Garrett Atkins (free agent signing from Colorado), SS Miguel Tejada (free agent signing from the Astros), SP Kevin Millwood (trade from the Rangers)

These are fairly significant signings in the sense that all of these players will play big roles for the Orioles. Gonzalez will be the closer this year, Akins the starting 1st baseman, Tejada the starting Shortstop (a change for him as he has been a 3rd baseman up until now) and Millwood will be the Orioles Opening Day starter. Millwood has an especially important role considering that he will be looked to as the veteran of a very young pitching staff that features 2nd-year pitcher Brad Bergesen and rookies Brian Matusz and Chris Tillman, all of whom are quite talented.

Talent En Route: 

This is where the Orioles really shine. They have some top talent that is either ripe for the picking now or will be soon. There are four prospects in their system that deserve mention.

Brian Matusz (LH SP) - Matusz will be in the rotation at the beginning of this season, likely in the 3rd spot behind Millwood and Guthrie. Matusz saw some brief action towards the end of last year, pitching in 8 games and compiling a 4.63 ERA in 44+ innings with 38Ks. Drafted in the 1st round of the 2008 draft, Matusz made it as high as Double-A ball last year before the Orioles called him up. In the minors he had been tearing it up with sub-two ERAs and better than a 9K/9 ratio at 2 stops. It might take a season for this kid to get truly comfortable, but as a lefty with a low-90s fastball and excellent control, it won't be long before he's dominating.

Josh Bell (3B) - Drafted in the 4th round of the 2005 draft by the Dodgers and traded to the Orioles last year as part of the George Sherrill deal, Bell has blossomed into an exciting 3B with major potential to land a starting job with the Orioles here either this season or next. In 33 games at Double-A (post trade to the Orioles) he hit for a .289/.346/.570 line displaying the excellent power he had been developing within the Dodgers organization. This past off-season, the Orioles declined the option to Melvin Mora, paving a pretty clear path for Bell either later this season or next.

Jake Arrieta (RH SP) - Arrieta will be starting this season at Triple-A, but according to Baseball Prospectus, Arrieta possesses one of the best fastballs in the Orioles system, topping out around 96mph and consistently hitting 92-94mph. The problem with Arrieta, and what will likely prevent him from cracking the Majors until next season, is that his other pitches are not that great. This inevitably makes him predictable and in the 2nd half last year, he struggled at Triple-A. If he further develops his secondary pitches, he could become yet another of the young, exciting starters that the Orioles have.

Zach Britton (LH SP) - Drafted out of a Texas high-school in 2006, Britton pitched 140 innings at High-A last year with a 2.70ERA, 55BB and 131Ks. What scouts like about Britton is the action on his sinker, which some have said is the best sinker in the Orioles system. Britton is not likely to break into the Majors this year because he still has quite a bit of developing to do, but come 2011 or 2012, he could be a force.

2011 Free Agency and Salary Outlook:

When I think of the Orioles I think Brian Roberts and Nick Markakis...oh and Matt Wieters. So, in terms of these three 'faces of the franchise', Roberts is locked up through the 2013 season, Markakis is locked up through the 2014 season and Wieters is still in line for a rookie contract. In other words, the Orioles have locked up some of their core talent so far and can start building around that. The only notable names they'll lose moving forward through the next two season are Millwood, Tejada, and Gonzalez, all of whom they brought on this year. I could see them re-signing Gonzalez, but Millwood and Tejada are just place-holders until some younger talent develops a little further (Bell and another of their pitching prospects). This team is young and getting younger and I don't see them being active too active in the free agency/trade market until they have a little better understanding of what they have.

The Future of the Baltimore Orioles:

You know, having done this write-up, I'm feeling a little more optimistic about the Orioles. The biggest factor in my mind is the maturation of their young pitching talent. Between Matusz, Tillman, Bergesen, and Arrieta, they should have at least a couple of solid starters emerge and if three of the four pan out, they could be looking at a cheap, young rotation for the next few years. That would allow them to build around the offensive pieces they have (Wieters, Markakis, etc) and wah-lah, you have a contender in a couple of years. As I started off saying, however, their management has got to start spending a little coin to bring in those pieces that will compliment the young talent they already have. Without a financial commitment, it will be awfully hard to compete in this division. For Orioles fans' sake I hope that management steps up a little, this would be the perfect time.

LOL MLB

Wieters Watch Update

As you are most assuredly aware, Matt Wieters injured his hamstring over the weekend. To be clear - if Matt Wieters injured his hamstring, he did it on purpose. Why he did this, I don't know. But I am sure that he has a reason.

On Thursday night, April 16, Wieters put up the following line:

2 for 5 with 1BB and 1K, 2R, 1HR and 1 RBI. Hit his first homer of the year, and raised the ole average to .261.

Friday night, April 17:

1 for 1, a single. Raises the average to .292. Intentionally pulls hamstring in order to execute master plan.

Saturday, April 18 and Sunday, April 19: DNP. It's possible that he is attending to a matter of national security. The word is that the injury is not too severe, and that he will be back in a matter of days. I waited with baited breath.

Wieters Watch

Future greatest catcher of all time Matt Wieters had another so-so night last night. Facing the Charlotte Knights he went 1-3 with a single and a walk. His batting AVG is now .222.