Nishioka's Struggles No Surprise

I'm going to quickly revisit something I wrote several months ago, shortly after the Twins' hasty exit from the playoffs last year. The entire piece can be found here. Here's the quote: 

"[...] re-upping with Hardy eats up a large portion of the off-season money the Twins have to spend, but as I've tried to lay out here, Hardy is the most important one to re-sign given his positional significance coupled with the potential difficulties of replacing him."

I wrote that on October 25th, 2010 and by now all of us are painfully familiar with what happened shortly thereafter. The Twins watched Orlando Hudson walk via free-agency. They traded Hardy to the Orioles for two less-than-mediocre relief "prospects", and they put all of their eggs into the Tsuyoshi Nishioka basket, paying the $5M posting fee to negotiate with the Japanese shortstop and ultimately signing him to a 3-year, $9M contract. Leading up to Spring Training, there was a lot of talk about how Yoshi would transition to Major League Baseball. Many of us bloggers actually managed to convince ourselves that a Nishioka-Casilla middle-infield battery would be pretty decent, at least defensively. Oh how I wish we had been right.

In February, I penned another piece that was inspired by something Phil Mackey had written about the number of Japanese players who had come over the the U.S. and had successful MLB careers. After reading that list I did some research, the results of which you can read here. At the risk of quoting myself too many times in my own piece, here was my conclusion. 

"I'm not trying to be Debbie Downer here, but the track record is undeniable. Aside from Ichiro, who possessed superior hitting and fielding skills prior to coming to the U.S., and Hideki Matsui, who was as great of a power hitter as Japan has ever seen, the overall crop of Japanese players has been disappointing. What's really scary to me is that some of these guys were .300+ hitters in Japan (K. Matsui, Iguchi, Iwamura) and couldn't crack .275 over here...Nishioka was only a .293 hitter in Japan (.287 career average before an unusually good 2010 seasons). Nishioka also didn't have much power in Japan (career .426 SLG%), though he is only 25, so he could develop that as he goes along. I hope it works out for young Nishi, but history suggests the road will be a tough one."

I also wrote (last self-quote, I promise):

"[...] aside from Ichiro, none of the players I covered won a Gold Glove in the U.S. despite the fact that a few of them won the award multiple times in Japan."

I know that Nishioka has only played in 19 Major League games for the Twins. I know this (sample-size alert!!). I also know that the bulk of those games have been after an extended absence due to a broken leg and that perhaps he is simply quite rusty from the long layoff. I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt for awhile. That said, history is not in Nishioka's favor and at some point, one runs out of excuses. What started out as an interesting departure from the norm for the Twins could prove to be one of their more ill-advised personnel decisions of the last decade. As Gleeman pointed out in his column today, JJ Hardy is hitting .307/.369/.547 with 11HRs and only 1 error in 50 games this season for the Orioles, while Nishioka has committed 6 errors in 19 total games (between 2B & SS) while hitting .197/.254/.242.

Nishioka deserves more time before being labeled a 'bust', probably the entirety of a season...but my hopes for him have never been high and he's done nothing so far to change my mind. Don't get me wrong, I love his attitude, I love that he really seems to care about what the fans think of him and I love his work ethic. That said, I fear that the Twins are blinded by the investment they've made in the 26-year-old to the point where they are probably unwilling to do the one thing that would help Nishioka out more than anything: send him down to Triple-A for awhile. A minor league assignment would take the pressure off of him and give him a chance to further-grasp the unique aspects of baseball on this side of the Pacific. If the Twins are going to make a move like that, the time would be now. If you wait any longer, you're too far into his contract. If you're Bill Smith and you decide that this season is a bust, why not try to develop him a little bit, re-tool the team in the off-season, and come back next year with guns blazing? It just makes sense.

Now is the Time to Play it Smart

At 18-37, the Twins are effectively out of the race for the AL Central crown...this is not new news. They're 15.5 games behind Cleveland coming into play today and the astronomical win-loss record they would have to put together from this point forward to win even 90 games is on the edge of ridiculous (for those that are curious, they'd have to go 72-35 from here on out). Everyone and their mom around the interwebs is talking about how the Twins are likely going to be sellers come the trade deadline and while I don't disagree with that sentiment, it can not be said emphatically enough that now is the time for the Twins to be smart and play their cards right.

When you're a "seller" that means a) things haven't gone well for you this year and b)you're not expecting them to get better quickly enough to contend. In terms of getting a good deal, that leaves you at a disadvantage. When you're a seller, you're essentially trying to dump salary or perhaps get a load of prospects in return for a more valuable Major Leaguer. The one thing the Twins absolutely need to keep in mind throughout the next two months is that they have both Michael Cuddyer and Joe Nathan's salaries coming off the books at the end of the season. That's $21,750,000 in salary between those two players alone. In addition to that, Jason Kubel, Matt Capps, and Jim Thome's salaries are also expiring at the end of the season, good for another $15,400,000 off the payroll number. In total, that's $37,150,000 in salary coming off the books at the end of the season, which is about 33% of the current payroll figure ($113M). Granted, yes, you would have to replace those guys, but aside from Kubes you can probably pretty easily replace that production at a fraction of the cost.

So what's the point I'm trying to make? What I'm trying to highlight here is the fact that the Twins don't absolutely NEED to be sellers. Sure, it would be nice to get a couple of prospects for Kubel or Slowey, there isn't much debating that the farm system is in need of an influx in talent...but it isn't worth trading either player unless you're getting something decent in return. The Twins will have enough flexibility with the payroll at the end of this season to make a lot of changes, they don't need to make bad deals now to preemptively try and patch up the holes on a terrible team. The people in the Twins' front office need to be both shrewd and smart right now because for as bad as things look, there is no reason to panic.

I don't think there is much debate that the middle infield is of utmost concern for this team going into next season. That said, considering the investment that the Twins have made in Tsuyoshi Nishioka, it's unlikely that they will be in the market for a 2nd basemen in the off-season. Here's one option that's intriguing:

Kelly Johnson - 2B - Diamondbacks - 29-years-old
Johnson has had somewhat of a down year so far this season, but he owns a career .794 OPS and is a solid defensive 2nd-baseman as well. Johnson has legitimate 20-25HR power and though he does strikeout a lot, he has managed a career .347 OBP. Johnson is set to make $5.85M this season, but could probably be had for $6-$8M per and would be an immediate upgrade over any of the options the Twins currently have at 2nd base.

As for Shortstop, the Twins clearly have a need there. Here are some of the better options:

Jose Reyes - SS - Mets - 27-years-old
Though this is likely a long-shot for the Twins, it's at least worth mentioning that a shortstop of Reyes' caliber will likely be on the market at the end of this season (provided he doesn't re-sign before the end of the year). Reyes has a solid .774 career OPS and while he's no gold-glove at shortstop, he would be light-years better than anything the Twins have, both offensively and defensively.

J.J. Hardy - SS - Orioles - 28-years-old
I find this scenario unlikely as well, considering that a) the Twins traded him away for two garbage relievers and b) there were rumblings that the coaching staff wasn't that impressed with Hardy. The Twins would have to be stupid not to consider this option, however, because the fact of the matter is that the Twins are getting schooled this season on the importance of middle-infield defense and Hardy, when healthy, is about as good as it gets at shortstop.

Rafael Furcal - SS - Dodgers - 33-years-old
While Furcal is an older option, his .285/.350/.410 hitting line would fit nicely into the Twins lineup. With Furcal, the question is always "can he stay healthy" as he has seen significant DL time in 3 out of the last 4 seasons. When he has been healthy he been a good producer offensively and his glove, well, it's been good enough (.965 career Fielding% at SS). The tricky thing with Furcal is that if he reaches 600 PAs this year (unlikely), his $12M option for 2012 become automatic. I can't see the Dodgers picking up a $12M option on him otherwise, so it's likely that Furcal will be a free-agent at the end of this season.

Other options include Yuniesky Betancourt, Ramon Santiago, and Jack Wilson, but to be completely frank, none of those options are much better than the middle-infield options the Twins have had this season.

Given that the Twins will likely have $20-$30M to spend during this coming off-season, using $8M-$10M of that money to fix their shortstop problem should be a no-brainer and they really couldn't go very wrong with any of the three options above. I would be ecstatic to have Reyes, but I find that to be so unlikely, it's not even worth getting excited about. The bottomline with all of this is that the Twins don't need to be aggressive sellers in the next two months and, in fact, they shouldn't make a deal unless they're getting quality in return. Bill Smith could go a long way in repairing his image with Twins fans if he makes patient, smart moves this year that end up paying off next year or down the road.

A Break in the Clouds (and "Where are they now?")

Ahhh. An above-average offensive game, a couple of wins, two good pitching performances, things are looking up. On top of that, the Twins aren't in the cellar anymore courtesy of a White Sox slump which has seen them lose 10 out of 11 games. Morneau's looking good in his return from the flu, Gardy says Delmon Young should be back in the lineup tomorrow, the Indians and Royals are returning to earth a little bit...slowly but surely things are turning around.

I didn't get to watch either of the games this weekend, I'm currently in the process of moving so that's taking up a majority of my time, but I did read/see a couple of things that made me smile. One was the 4 hits and 4 RBI from Morneau over the weekend. That's great to see and I don't think it will be long here before we start to see the thunder return to his bat. Jason Bay of the New York Mets, who also suffered a concussion and was out for awhile, hit his first HR of the season which gives me hope for Morneau. The second thing I read about that made me smile was regarding Nathan's appearance in Saturday's 10-3 win. He came in with a 7-run lead, pitched well, and I read that the fans were standing and cheering during the final three outs. I don't know the guy personally, but Joe Nathan seems like a good person and a hard-working player and I was happy to see the fans give him some love. That had to feel good.

I had MLB Network on a lot this weekend and I watched the Cubs game on Saturday so I got to watch former-Twin Matt Guerrier cough up a Dodger lead on Saturday, giving up 5 earned run in 1.2 innings of work. That got me thinking, "I wonder how other recently departed Twins are faring for their new teams?" So, here's a quick run-down:

Orlando Hudson - 2B - San Diego Padres
After a decent start to the season, Hudson has cooled off considerably and currently finds himself mired in a 4-for-33 slump. His triple-slash currently sits at .229/.349/.271 through 70 at-bats. O-Dog does have 7 steals so far this year, which is only 3 less than his best season total. In the field he's been money as he does not yet have an error at 2nd and has been a part of 15 double-plays.

J.J. Hardy - SS - Baltimore Orioles
Hardy only made it 6 games into the season before he found himself on the DL with a left oblique strain. He's supposed to take some swings today, but it's probably another week or two before he'll be back with the Major League squad.

Jesse Crain - RP - Chicago White Sox
With all sorts of problems at the back end of the bullpen for the Sox (6 blown saves in 7 chances), I wouldn't be surprised if Guillen gave Crain a shot at the closer role for the Sox. Crain has been quite effective so far this year with 11 Ks against only 2BB in 10.1 innings of work. Crain and Sergio Santos have easily been the White Sox more effective relief arms, but haven't had many higher-leverage opportunities lately as the Sox have lost 10 of 11 games.

Matt Guerrier - RP - Los Angeles Dodgers
In Guerrier's defense, he had not surrendered a run until Saturday's debacle which saw him give up 5 runs against the Cubs in 1.2 innings of work. Guerrier has still yet to give up an extra-base hit and prior to Saturday's blow-up, he had retired 33 of 39 batters-faced.

Jon Rauch - RP/Closer - Toronto Blue Jays
Rauch has been the de-facto closer so far this season, but that may be changing soon as Frank Francisco has come off the DL. Rauch has done a serviceable job in the role to this point, saving 3 games for the Jays and only surrendering 2 runs in 8.2 IP. Rauch will likely resume more of a set-up role going forward as Francisco is expected to regain the role of closer shortly.

Brian Fuentes - Closer - Oakland Athletics
With Andrew Bailey side-lined due to injury (right forearm strain), Fuentes has been filling as the Athletics' closer since the beginning of the season. Aside from two ugly outings against the Mariners and Tigers, Fuentes has pitched pretty well saving 6 games for the A's with 10Ks in 11 IP. The timetable for Bailey's return is early-May at which point Fuentes could find himself back in a set-up role, or even a LOOGY role.

Pat Neshek - RP - San Diego Padres
Neshek's velocity is still pretty awful, but he's managed to pitch well despite that fact, holding a 2.25 ERA over 8 IP so far. Neshek's control isn't there either (7:5 K/BB) which leads me to believe the National League simply hasn't adapted to his unorthodox delivery yet. Unless his velocity and command improve, he will start getting shelled once hitters get more comfortable with his release point. Pat's fan-friendly attitude hasn't changed though and I'm sure that if he sticks around with the Padres he'll become as popular there as he wa with the Twins.

That about does it for players worth mentioning. I wouldn't say that any of the ex-Twins are doing amazingly well, but it's early. As for the Twins, things are looking up, if they can get Liriano going a little better and get Mauer back sometime soon, we could be looking at a big turnaround. Fingers-crossed, Go Twins.

Hardy Reaction

I've been reading around the Twins blogs and other blogs for the past hour or so soaking up the various opinions on the JJ Hardy trade the Twins executed today with the Baltimore Orioles. Had I any time to write a post earlier today I might have gone by the numbers and tried to make a case one way or the other, but I'm late to the game so I'll skip that and just give straight up opinion.

Back in October I wrote a piece laying out an argument for bringing back Hardy and claiming that he should be the Twins #1 priority to re-sign in the off-season...so much for that. The bottomline for my argument was that a) Hardy is way more valuable when compared to other shortstops and what's available than he looks to be standing alone and b) $7M is not too much to pay for a proven defensive commodity with offensive upside. As Nick Nelson highlighted in his opinion of the trade, the Twins now find themselves with a very unstable and highly risky setup at SS and 2nd, relying heavily on a very average Alexi Casilla and an unproven Tsuyoshi Nishioka (provided the Twins do actually sign him). Granted, they did save, by all accounts, about $3-$4M in salary between what Hardy would have gotten and Harris' salary, but I'm not sure that savings justifies the trade.

The most irritating thing I'm reading through all of this is that this trade would somehow be justified if the Twins turn around and re-sign Carl Pavano. Um...NO, IT WOULDN'T. First of all, re-signing a 35-year old pitcher to a 3-year deal and then saying that it somehow justifies trading away a semi-valuable 28-year-old shortstop is idiotic logic. For another thing, I'm sick of hearing about how resigning Pavano is a good idea. It's not a good idea. The guy has a track record of injury and locking him in till he's 38 is just asking to get screwed. One and a half seasons of decent baseball does not a 3-year contract merit. What the Twins outta do is pursue a trade for an arm that other people aren't talking about...like Fausto Carmona or Wandy Rodriguez.

Twins Geek suggested that this move means the Twins payroll will only go up by 10-15% instead of 25%, I'm just not following the logic there. I think the Orioles offered the Twins those two also-ran minor league pitchers and the Twins front-office said (wisely), "why don't you take this flour-sack-of-a-player Brendan Harris off our hands too, ya know, to make the deal resemble something fair." And the Orioles said, "OK." I don't think it's any indication of the payroll situation, but it does work nicely either way in opening up another couple million to spend on pitchers.

David Golebiewski from FanGraphs said it best, "I’d be shocked if Casilla comes anywhere close to Hardy’s production level in 2011. Should Casilla get a starting job, it’s possible that he’s a win-and-a-half to two win downgrade at the position." That's a best-case scenario, and if either Casilla or Nishioka gets hurt, you're looking at the likes of Trevor Plouffe in the starting lineup and frankly, that's scary.

Here's to hoping a) Justin Morneau returns next season and resembles his old self, b) Kubel has a year that more closely resembles 2009, and c) the Twins don't have any injuries to their 2nd basemen or Shortstop. That's a lot to hope for.

Why Bringing Back JJ Hardy Should be Priority #1

If you read the Twins blogs, which you must if you found this one, you know the whirlwind of speculation and opinion that is going on regarding what the Twins should do with their free-agents and arbitration-eligibles this off-season. The Twins should re-sign Pavano, no they should let him go, they should non-tender Matt Capps, they need to bring back Jesse Crain, and on and on and on. I'm here to make a case that bringing back JJ Hardy is THE MOST IMPORTANT move the Twins can make this off-season, specifically because of the domino effect that will happen if they do not.

JJ Hardy didn't have a great season, that is well documented. But when you look at his season, both offensively and defensively, in terms of other short-stops in the Majors, a different picture emerges. For instance, if you extrapolated the numbers Hardy put together to a full-season (qualified) of work, his OPS (.714) makes him a top 10 short-stop in terms of offense and his Fielding% (.976) makes him a top 7 short-stop defensively. His UZR score of 8.1 is good for 5th among short-stops with 800+ innings, and his UZR150 of 12.8 would be 1st among short-stops with 800+ innings. I know there are some sample size issues here, but what I'm trying to point out is that even though Hardy didn't have an eye-popping season offensively, his value in terms trying to replace him is very high.

I mentioned earlier "the domino effect" that would occur if the Twins let him go. First off, Alexi Casilla, who would like become an everyday 2nd basemen if Hardy stays, would likely move to Short, leaving a hole a 2nd. Now, Gardenhire could probably push his weight around and get his pet-project Nick Punto re-signed, but the Twins would pay $5M to do that and the Twins lineup would suffer as a result. Hardy is in line to get about $6.5M via arbitration, so why not let Punto walk, pay an extra $1.5M or so and have less problems? Ok, getting back on track...so now you have a hole at 2nd, what are your options on the free-agent market? There are a number of 2nd basemen out there, but in order to make this cost-effective (i.e. less than the cost of picking up Punto's option) the price has to be less than $5M and you would want someone relatively young. So, here is a list of free-agent 2nd basemen that fit those criteria:

Willie Bloomquist (33) - made $1.7M last year
Anderson Hernandez (28) - not a good option, but an option nonetheless
Omar Infante (29) - has a $2.5M club option and the Braves would be stupid not to pick it up
Akinori Iwamura (32) - made $4.85M last year, had a few good season with Tampa, but was terrible last year
Felipe Lopez (31) - Type B free-agent and actually not a bad option, made $1M last year, .960 career Fielding% at short-stop, could be had for cheap
Juan Uribe (31) - Uribe is one of the better options out there as far as 2nd basemen go and thus likely to command attention, he had a good season offensively and has been a star in the post-season, signing him probably wouldn't be very cost-effective for the Twins


And that's about it. You can see how bare the 2nd basemen market is and how difficult to fill a hole at 2nd would be.

Some people out there might say, "what about Trevor Plouffe?" (Triple-A short-stop for the Twins) To that I say, "see here." That link takes you to Plouffe's minor league stat page and though offensively it looks decent for a short-stop, defensively I am left wanting (.947 fielding%). One of the strengths of the Twins this season was infield defense and though it wasn't quite as good as expected, that defense saved runs which led to wins, blah, blah, blah. If the Twins have Casilla at 2nd and Hardy at SS, that defense continues to look good, if they get rid of Hardy and replace him with Plouffe (moving Casilla to 2nd) that defense takes a hit....domino effect.


Letting Hardy go and finding a way to cheaply fill the hole left behind would free up some more money to re-sign some of the bullpen, but as Rauch proved this past season, bullpen pieces are pretty easy to find and the Twins have some arms in the minors that could be tapped to replace the likes of Fuentes, Rauch, etc. Keep in mind too that unlike the 2nd basemen and SS market, the relief pitching market is chock-full of talent and because of that, prices will probably be driven lower.


Yes, re-upping with Hardy eats up a large portion of the off-season money the Twins have to spend, but as I've tried to lay out here, Hardy is the most important one to re-sign given his positional significance coupled with the potential difficulties of replacing him.

Liriano and The Twins Recent Struggles

A 3-game slide, some anemic offensive showings, a handful of sub-par pitching performances...it's all started to pile up in recent days. BUT, take your hand off the panic button, there is no reason to worry about this team. The Twins just completed what will likely be their toughest 7-game stretch of the season and though they emerged with only 2 wins, the worst is over and this road weary team now looks forward to a solid 9-game homestand. I don't think the 7 games were played against the toughest opponents that the Twins will face this year, but the games were against teams they always seem to have a hard time with in the Yankees, Blue Jays and Red Sox. 


One player who has regressed quite a bit in the month of May is Francisco Liriano. His recent struggles had me worried so I went to Pitch FX to see if I could find some answers. On April 27th, Liriano pitched 8 innings of shut-out, 4-hit baseball while striking out 10 and walking 1. Yesterday he pitched 4 and 2/3 innings, giving up 5 earned runs on 5 hits with 6 strikeouts and 3 walks. Is it a velocity problem? What's going on?


April 27th:
Average FB velocity: 94.6 mph
Max FB velocity: 95.1 mph
112 total pitches
74 strikes
First pitch strikes to 20 of 28 batters
Ground-Ball/Fly-Ball: 9-5


May 20th:
Average FB velocity: 94.82 mph
Max FB velocity: 96 mph
98 total pitches
61 strikes
First pitch strikes to 15/22 batters
Ground-Ball/Fly-Ball: 4-4


Hmm, nothing there that stands out, except maybe the GB/FB rate in his most recent start, but other than that the velocity is there, the location seems to be there he even seems to be getting ahead of batters at a decent rate. Next stop: FIP.


Current ERA: 3.25
FIP: 2.66
xFIP (normalized HR factor): 3.36
BABIP: .332


For those of you not familiar with FIP, it is simply a measure of a pitchers performance in terms of the factors that a pitcher can control. In other words, FIP factors out poor defense. xFIP goes one step further by adjusting for park factors (size) and normalizing FB/HR ratio. Anyway, regardless of your understanding of it, Liriano's FIP is the lowest in the AL and his xFIP is the 4th lowest. It also suggests that his rising ERA might have more to do with J.J. Hardy's absence than anything, a thought that gains traction when you consider that Liriano's struggles started when Hardy went down.


Here's some additional insight from DomeDog:

• It's May. For a team that hasn't been traditionally quick out of the gate (we're more used to furious late-season charges to claw back into the division race) the fact remains that the Twins are still in first place in the AL Central and have been for the bulk of the season. At this point last year, the Twins were 19-23 and were in the midst of a six-game losing streak. There's plenty of baseball to be played yet.
• This was, schedule-wise, by far the worst road trip of the season. The only one that will even come close is a ten-game stretch in early August that will include four games in Tampa. The Twins finally managed a win in New York, snagged another elusive victory in the Rogers Centre, and then ran into two very talented young arms in Boston. Sure, 2-5 is disappointing, but I don't think there's any reason to conclude that this somehow proves the Twins aren't an elite team or that they can't hang with the AL East. Over the course of a 162-game season anyone can beat anyone at any time (sure it's cliche, but true) and even if sabermetricians can't put a finger on why it happens, home field advantage is real. Let's hope this homestand can get the Twins back on track.
• The bases-loaded situation hasn't improved. Wait a second, so why is this a reason for hope? The Twins are batting .170 with the bases loaded, but have generated 53 chances, second in all of baseball. As I noted in an earlier post, the Twins are doing a great job of getting men on base, especially at the top of the order, and getting some more hits to fall in these situations will greatly aid the run production. They won't stay at .170 the whole season, and if they keep up the OBP, even a modest increase in bases-loaded average will help. In addition, AG noted Cuddyer's struggles with grounding into double plays (and he should be best-placed to take advantage of the Morneau-Mauer OBP machine), but points out that his GIDP rate of 24 percent is well above his career average and even though his raw number of GIDPs is the worst in the league, there are plenty of others who have been work percentage-wise. Bottom line, chances are good that these numbers are gonna get better, and with that will come some more scoring.
• J.J. Hardy should be back soon. The mere fact that this will keep the Twins from starting both Punto and Harris on any given day should speak for itself. As AK mentioned, Hardy's range at short should aid run prevention as a whole, especially helping those member of the staff that are more inclined to induce at least some ground balls (see: anyone other than Baker or Slowey). He'll also bring back some power potential to the bottom of the order.

So hands off the panic button, this was a good team at the beginning of the season and is still a good team. There are, as with almost every team out there right now, some holes and some problem spots that need work, but I think as this season continues to progress we will see many more wins than losses and I'm looking forward to another run at the AL Central crown.