Oh What a Difference an Infield Can Make

With the hometown team having fallen on hard times (again) of late, we need something else to look at and today I'm here to provide that. There's been some talk around the Twins blogosphere lately about J.J. Hardy and how he's having a monster season for the Orioles...basically revisiting what a mistake it was for the Twins to trade him away for practically nothing. I am, of course, in wholehearted agreement with these sentiments, but I want to look at things from a slightly different angle. It's been no secret that for the majority of the season the Twins starting rotation (and bullpen) have struggled and though the rotation is pretty much composed of the exact same pieces, the results have been vastly different. I want to try and see what role infield defense has played in that difference and see if we can draw any conclusions.

First, some numbers.

Here are the ERAs, FIPs and xFIPs for the starting 5 from last year. I've also included their groundball-to-flyball ratio and their HR/FB%. For those not familiar with these metrics, FIP and xFIP attempt to remove variables from the equation that the pitcher cannot control with the goal of giving you an ERA-type number than more accurately states how a given pitcher performed. For example, though Francisco Liriano had a 3.62 ERA last year, his FIP was 2.66 and his xFIP was 2.95, good for 3rd and 2nd in all of baseball respectively. In other words, Liriano's pitching performance as a whole last year was much better than his ERA suggested. For more on FIP and xFIP, click the links.

2010 Pitching Numbers for Twins Starters: (ERA/FIP/xFIP), GB/FB ratio, HR/FB%, BABIP

Francisco Liriano (3.62/2.66/2.95), 1.96 GB/FB, 6.3%, .331
Carl Pavano (3.75/4.02/3.86), 1.66 GB/FB, 10.6%, .281
Scott Baker (4.49/3.96/3.82), 0.85 GB/FB,10.2%, .323
Kevin Slowey (4.45/3.98/4.24), 0.56 GB/FB, 8.2%, .307
Nick Blackburn (5.42/5.07/4.46), 1.57 GB/FB, 13.5%, .305

Numbers for the Twins starting staff in 2010: (4.17/3.91/3.84), 1.28 GB/FB, 9.9%, .299, 3.91 SIERA

2011 Pitching Numbers for Twins Starters: (ERA/FIP/xFIP), GB/FB ratio, HR/FB%, BABIP

Francisco Liriano (5.00/4.53/4.41), 1.45 GB/FB, 10.2%, .286
Carl Pavano (4.71/4.08/4.30), 1.48 GB/FB, 7.8%, .302
Scott Baker (3.21/3.49/3.55) 0.77 GB/FB, 8.9%, .299
Brian Duensing (4.56/4.05/4.00), 1.16 GB/FB, 9.6%, .317
Nick Blackburn (4.36/4.76/4.17), 1.98 GB/FB, 14.3%, .310

Numbers for the Twins starting staff in 2011: (4.30/4.18/4.10), 1.30 GB/FB, 9.7%, .296, 4.14 SIERA

Quick Discussion:
The first thing that jumps out at me with these numbers is just how poorly the starting rotation has pitched in 2011 when compared to the 2010 numbers. Even though the HR/FB% is down this year and the GB/FB ratio is up slightly, all three pitching metrics (ERA, FIP, xFIP) are worse for the staff this year. The second thing that pops out to me is that the staff BABIP (batting average on balls in play) is actually better this year than last. This is probably due to the fact that 4 of the Twins starters this year are ground-ball-heavy pitchers compared to only 3 of the 5 in 2010. More ground-balls equals more outs. The main culprits for these year's poor pitching results are Liriano and Pavano, that much is fairly obvious. Both are having terrible seasons compared to 2010 while the bottom 3/5ths of the rotation is actually performing a little better than last year's 3, 4 and 5 starters.

Now, the fielding numbers.

Quick caveat here, I obviously don't have a complete season's worth of number for this year. As a work around to that I calculated how much of this season has been played so far (72.2%) and for the counting stats, I just made the statistical assumption that the Twins will continue at the pace they've been on.

The Whole Team 2010:
78 errors
.987 Fielding%
+54 DRS (Defensive Runs Saved)
30.7 UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating)
3.2 URZ/150

Middle Infield 2010:
34 errors
.979 Fielding%
+27 DRS
11.1/9.9 UZR/UZR150 for 2B
14.0/13.2 UZR/UZR150 for SS


The Whole Team 2011:
116 errors
.981 Fielding%
-19 DRS
3.1 UZR
-0.4 UZR/150

Middle Infield 2011:
40 errors
.975 Fielding%
-18 DRS
-0.8/-0.5 UZR/UZR150 for 2B so far in 2011
-9.4/-12.0 UZR/UZR150 for SS so far in 2011

The numbers really do speak for themselves. Of particular note is the "Defensive Runs Saved" stat. This stat is like WAR (Wins Above Replacement) for defenders. 0 is "average", anything above is good and a getting better, anything below is bad and getting worse. Last year's middle infield for the Twins had a +27 DRS mark which was Top 5 in MLB, this year's team is pretty much the complete opposite story, not only playing to a negative DRS number, but also playing to negative UZR numbers as well. For a team with so many ground-ball-heavy starting pitchers (4 of 5 starters have a GB/FB ratio north of 1.00)...a strong defensive middle-infield is a must and sadly, we've gotten to see first hand how much of a difference it can make.

To my original premise, as I've gone through this I've come to realize how difficult it would be to isolate the effect of poor middle-infield defense on pitching results. It's easy to see that this year's middle infield has been much worse than last year's, but how that ends up affecting the pitching?...well, that's hard to say. I feel confident in saying the two are correlated, of that I have no doubt, especially when the starting staff is as adept at inducing the ground-ball as this one has been. This is my plea to Bill Smith and the Twins...PLEASE get some middle-infield help this off-season...if you're going to keep the same pitchers, improving the middle-infield defense on this team should be, far and away, priority #1 this off-season.

Fence Sitters

Thanks to great performances by Ervin Santana, John Danks and Brian Duensing yesterday, the Twins find themselves 6 games behind 1st place with only 4 days remaining till the trade deadline...what is Bill Smith gonna do? So far I've heard rumors involving Denard Span and Michael Cuddyer, hopefully they are just that because the type of rumors I've heard (Span for Drew Storen/Ian Desmond) do not sound favorable for the Twins. As for me, I honestly do not care whether the Twins are sellers or not in the next few days. My only hope is that if they do move a few pieces, they get good value in return.

I think this past week has highlighted just how tall a task it is to gain ground in a division when there are three teams ahead of you. With the White Sox, Tigers and Indians all seemingly playing one another, there have been more than a few nights where at least one of those teams is guaranteed to win which puts pressure on the the Twins to win or fall even further behind. Fortunately the White Sox have put away division-leading Detroit the past couple of nights, but if they (the White Sox) get into the mix at the top, that will only further complicate the Twins struggle to get to the top.

We've been seeing some really positive things from Joe Mauer these past couple of days. Two nights ago Mauer hit a pinch-hit double in a come-from-behind Twins victory. Last night Mauer went 2-for-4 with his first homerun of the year and, not only that, his single was to the opposite field, a good sign that he is seeing the ball well. My dream scenario would be Mauer finding his power stroke while continuing to hit for average - and then Morneau returns in mid-August and immediately starts hitting...ok, maybe it's far-fetched, but if it happens it could make September pretty interesting.

Focusing the microscope a little on the Twins pitching staff...after going 17-9 with a 3.08/1.26 ERA/WHIP in June, the pitching staff as a whole has come back to earth in July, going 15-10 with a 4.47/1.36 ERA/WHIP. I'd love to try and spin this by saying something like, "but their xFIP this month is 2.50" but that is sadly untrue. The 4.47 ERA looks a lot more like April (4.88) and May's (4.87) than it does June which suggests to me that June was probably a little flukey. The Twins starters, in particular, are going to need to be a lot more consistent if they have any hope of reaching the playoffs. Francisco Liriano, Nick Blackburn and Brian Duensing have been the most inconsistent over the past few weeks, to the point where it almost impossible to predict how any one of the aforementioned pitchers is going to fare in any given start. To highlight that a bit, Twins starters had a 3.00 ERA in June and so far in July they have a 4.44 ERA...that's not going to cut it when you're chasing down 3 teams in your own division.

I guess I feel a little silly saying things like "if the Twins have any hope of winning the division". Realistically, they don't stand much of a chance. Baseball Prospectus publishes a playoff odds report every day and it is based off statistics that they run through simulator 1,000,000 times and today they have the Twins playoff chances at 5.0%. By comparison, the Tigers have a 62.4% chance and the White Sox have a 23.8% chance of making the playoff. So, like I said, unlikely...but hey, this season has been all about trying to keep the hope alive, so why stop now right?

Start of Something Better?

Though his velocity is still not quite where it was last year, Francisco Liriano took a major step forward last night against the Mariners, striking out 9 batters while only walking one. Granted, yes, it was the Mariners, whose offense is pretty much triple-A level, but the major takeaway I'm seeing is that Liriano's control was improved, which really is the key to his success. Here are a few other highlights:

- 65% of his pitches were strikes (72/110)
- He threw first pitch strikes to 17 out of 26 batters-faced
- He tallied 18 swinging strikes (16.3%) which is a vast improvement over the 10.9 swinging strike percentage he has averaged so far this year
- Induced 7 groundball outs vs. 5 flyball outs which means he was keeping his pitches down

Over his last three starts, Liriano has a no-hitter, a 3-hitter (last night) and one dud game in which he was pulled early due to illness. His ERA over 19 innings so far in May is 2.37 compared to an April ERA of 9.13. I'll need to see a couple more quality starts to say for sure, but it looks like Liriano is slowly settling in and I think his start last night could be the start of a good run for him.

In other news, Joe Mauer is headed to Ft. Meyers for extended spring training which is a positive sign. Though no timetable has been set for his return, the fact that he is moving his rehab there suggests that he is getting much closer to playing in some minor league games. Jim Thome and Tsuyoshi Nishioka are also down at Ft. Meyers and by all accounts, both of them are progressing well...it would be a boon to the Twins offense to have all three of them return...hopefully they will all be back soon.

Michael Cuddyer is having himself a pretty good May so far. In 49 May at-bats, he is hitting .327/.400/.408 with a healthy 8:6 K:BB ratio. Meanwhile Danny Valencia's "season of regression" continues. After hitting just .217/.294/.315 in April, he has followed that up with an equally poor May (so far), hitting .220/.304/.340. Despite an excellent 18:16 K:BB ratio, Valencia simply isn't getting as "lucky" this year, watching his BABIP drop from .345 last year to .231 so far this season. Basically, for as lucky as he was last year, he has been equally unlucky so far this year...

This stretch in the Twins schedule might be a good place to turn things around. Tonight they start a two-game series at Oakland, then it's off to play 3 with the Arizona Diamondback (18-23), before coming home to play 3 more against the Mariners and Angels. After that the Twins have a slew of division games against Detroit, Cleveland and KC. Here's to hoping anyway...

A Disappointing Start

The Twins' first series of the year is now in the books and if I summed it up in one word, that word would be: disappointing. From Carl Pavano's opening inning on Friday to Joe Nathan's white-knuckle save to win today's game, the Twins looked to be on shaky ground the entire time. I suppose there are several caveats that should be mentioned before people think I'm getting too down on this team.

a) The series was on the road and last year's 94-win team only won 50% of their road games.
b) The series was against an AL East opponent and, say what you will, the Twins have had perennial struggles with AL East opponent for several years now.
c) It's the first series of the year, there's a lot of baseball yet to be played.
d) Hey, the Twins are getting these tough road games out of the way early right?
e) Both Liriano and Pavano are better pitchers than they showed in their respective starts. If it was Blackburn, Baker or Duensing that had struggled, there would be more reason to worry going forward, but Pavano and Liriano will bounce back.

I think it's that last point that gives me hope. Sure Pavano and Liriano got roughed up and it was ugly, but they are both good pitchers who, more than likely, just happened to have rough starts in back-to-back games. It's not what you'd like to see, especially to start a year, but it's not the end of the world. That said, there are a few other things that happened that do have me worried...

a) Tsuyoshi Nishioka had 2 errors in three games,...that kind of defense is not going to win you any Gold Gloves in the Major Leagues. It could be nerves, but it's something to watch going forward.
b) Justin Morneau looks like he could have used a couple more weeks of Spring Training. He's 1 for 10 on the young season, with a strikeout and a walk and he hasn't looked anything like his old self...here's hoping he turns it around.
c) The bullpen looked shaky and they were used a lot on Friday and Saturday.
d) As mentioned earlier, Nathan looked very hittable today, and the Pitch FX data on his outing suggests that he's still in recovery-mode from Tommy John surgery. His fastest fastball today was 91.8 mph, almost a full 2 mph slower than his average fastball in 2009 and 2009. Not only that, his command was very spotty, which indicates that he's not all the way back. This will be something to keep a close eye on, if he has another outing like he did today, Gardenhire may choose to make Capps the closer for awhile.

So now it's on to New York City to play the Yankees for four. I don't even need to go into how much the Twins have struggled again New York for the last several years, every Twins fan is painfully aware. We'll get our first looks at Scott Baker and Brian Duensing in the series as they go up against Ivan Nova and Yankee-ace CC Sabathia. I'm looking to see some more offense for the Twins in this series and hoping for a little better defense as well. It think it would be a big boost of confidence for the Twins if they could split this series, though I'm not holding my breath.

News vs. Speculation

The ridiculous rumors regarding Francisco Liriano got me thinking yesterday about the immediacy with which "news" is spread these days and just how fine the line is between speculation and true news. I was actually planning on writing about it today, but then I came across this excellent piece over at the TwinsTarget blog and, well, I thought it said exactly what I wanted to say so I'll defer to Mr. Kneeland.

I feel that the need for journalistic integrity is higher now than it ever has been. It used to be that the only way news was spread was via a newspaper or magazine, where articles would go through numerous editing and fact-checking sessions before they were seen by the public. Now someone can post a short message on Twitter and it is immediately seen by 1000's of people, many of whom retweet it to the 1000's they know. Granted, yesterday's rumor was actually spread in a 2nd hand sort of way (one guy tweets about what another guy said on a radio show), but still, that needed a little more explanation than 140 characters could provide. Turns out, the rumor doesn't hold much water...whew.

On the flip side, the discerning eye of the reader also needs to be more critical than ever. Because "news" gets to our faces so quickly, and often without a whole lot of explanation behind it, it falls upon us to try and separate truth from fiction. That's not as easy as it sounds and I'm just as guilty as everyone else who freaked out yesterday. Andrew Kneeland's piece is a good one, check it out (I think he has another installment upcoming too), it's good food for thought.

THE Critical Part of the Season

Fortunately for the Twins, they were able to avoid the sweep in Texas last night, maintaining a 3.5 game lead heading into what has to be a critical part of the schedule for them over the next 12 games. The Twins took advantage of a struggling Cliff Lee and the bullpen held on for a 2-run victory; they must be happy to leave Texas after a couple of tough 1-run losses and a frustrating series overall. Next up is Seattle which is no walk in the park, but at least they avoid having to face Felix Hernandez who has been very dominant of late.

The reason the upcoming 12 games are so critical is because of the potential opportunity the Twins could have to put some distance between themselves and the White Sox. The Yankees and White Sox start a 3 game series tonight in Chicago and then the White Sox go on the road for a nice little 10-game road-trip to Cleveland, Boston and Detroit. Meanwhile, the Twins have the 3-game set in Seattle this weekend and then come home for against Detroit, Texas and Kansas City. So you can see, the opportunity may certainly be there for the Twins to extend their division lead should they play well while the White Sox play a much tougher schedule on the road. With a mere three head-to-head games remaining, the more distance the Twins can create, the less meaningful those games will be.

Random Notes

As the Washington Nationals and baseball fans everywhere await the MRI results for Stephen Strasburg, I thought I'd do a little digging and see if there are have been any signs that are typical of someone who's headed for Tommy John surgery (well EFF, as I'm writing this the results come out, looks like he's headed for TJ Surgery...what a shame).

First, I went over to BrooksBaseball.net and using the PitchFX tool, took a look at Strasburg's average fastball speeds over his 12 Major League starts. His average fastball speed topped out in his 2nd start where he threw the heater at an average clip of 98.51mph.  The lowest average came on July 16th at 96.72mph. In the last start before his most recent trip to the DL, his average fastball was 97.55mph. I prepared a graph charting the average speed of his various pitches in each start.

Anyway, I guess it's all moot now, he's most likely going to have the surgery and we'll be waiting until 2012 to see what he can do post-surgery...I wonder how loud the "rookie salary structure" people will get now?

Meanwhile, TJ survivor Francisco Liriano turned in a solid outing last night against the potent Texas Rangers, striking out 7 in 7 solid innings of work. He still holds a Major League-best 2.31 FIP and is only 2nd to Roy Halladay in xFIP at 3.01. He won't get any consideration for the AL Cy Young award, but he's certainly pitched like an elite starter this year, it's a shame that Wins and ERA continue to be the two main standards that decide who gets the award.

The Twins "magic number" is at 32. The lowest Magic Number in the Majors right now is the Texas Rangers at 28. If the Twins were to lose the division lead, they currently sit 5.5 back (behind NY or Tampa depending on how you look at it) in the Wild Card chase.

On Liriano & Hellickson

As most Twins fans know, Francisco Liriano has been straight dealin' lately and his latest gem was yesterday afternoon against the hapless Seattle Mariners. Liriano struck out 11 while walking 2 in 7 innings of 2-hit ball. But not for two hiccups against Detroit, Liriano has only allowed more than 3 runs in 2 of his last 14 outings. Oh, and he's currently working on 21 straight scoreless innings, striking out 25 and walking 6 over that span. He's been downright ridiculous and as Gleeman pointed out today, Liriano has been the best pitcher in baseball this season, according to FIP and xFIP...by a wide margin. He's the front-line ace he was in 2006, though hopefully this time there will be no more injuries. I looked deeper into the statistics to see just how similar he is to Liriano circa 2006:

2006: 
2.37 GB/FB
21.3 LD %
55.3 GB%
23.4 FB%
13.2 HR/FB%
2.35 xFIP
144/32 K/BB

2010:
1.97 GB/FB
20.1 LD%
53.0 GB%
26.9 FB%
2.1 HR/FB%
2.83 xFIP
150/38 K/BB [hat tip to FanGraphs for the stats]

Liriano had pitched 121 innings in 2006 and has now pitched 136 innings so far this season, so the comparison is of a two similar sample sizes. One thing I noted right awayt was that his K/BB ratios were almost identical indicating this his control is as good as it was in 2006. One thing that Liriano has undoubtedly benefited from this year is an extremely low HR/FB%, even despite a higher FB% than in '06. Another reason Liriano is so good is because he induces ground-balls at such a high rate, which leads to more double-plays and more outs in general. The numbers suggest that he isn't quite a copy of his 2006 self, but it's close and he's still quite dominating.

I'm watching the Twins B-team now as they trail 4-1 in the 6th inning (arg) and the Rays have a youngster on the mound that they just called up and he deserves a little discussion. The pitcher's name is Jeremy Hellickson and given his minor-league track record, I'm surprised his call-up was not met with more fanfare. Hellickson was drafted by the Rays in the 4th round of the 2005 draft and has absolutely obliterated the competition in the minors. In 579 minor league innings, Hellickson compiled a 2.66ERA and 1.05 WHIP to go along with 630Ks and only 135BBs. He was the MVP of this year's minor-league all-star game and how he is not up there with the Strasburg's and Heyward's in terms of hype is somewhat baffling. We'll see how much of a Big League taste he gets this time around, but I can't imagine that he wouldn't be a full-time member of the Rays starting rotation next season. Watch out for this kid, he looks like something special.

Liriano and The Twins Recent Struggles

A 3-game slide, some anemic offensive showings, a handful of sub-par pitching performances...it's all started to pile up in recent days. BUT, take your hand off the panic button, there is no reason to worry about this team. The Twins just completed what will likely be their toughest 7-game stretch of the season and though they emerged with only 2 wins, the worst is over and this road weary team now looks forward to a solid 9-game homestand. I don't think the 7 games were played against the toughest opponents that the Twins will face this year, but the games were against teams they always seem to have a hard time with in the Yankees, Blue Jays and Red Sox. 


One player who has regressed quite a bit in the month of May is Francisco Liriano. His recent struggles had me worried so I went to Pitch FX to see if I could find some answers. On April 27th, Liriano pitched 8 innings of shut-out, 4-hit baseball while striking out 10 and walking 1. Yesterday he pitched 4 and 2/3 innings, giving up 5 earned runs on 5 hits with 6 strikeouts and 3 walks. Is it a velocity problem? What's going on?


April 27th:
Average FB velocity: 94.6 mph
Max FB velocity: 95.1 mph
112 total pitches
74 strikes
First pitch strikes to 20 of 28 batters
Ground-Ball/Fly-Ball: 9-5


May 20th:
Average FB velocity: 94.82 mph
Max FB velocity: 96 mph
98 total pitches
61 strikes
First pitch strikes to 15/22 batters
Ground-Ball/Fly-Ball: 4-4


Hmm, nothing there that stands out, except maybe the GB/FB rate in his most recent start, but other than that the velocity is there, the location seems to be there he even seems to be getting ahead of batters at a decent rate. Next stop: FIP.


Current ERA: 3.25
FIP: 2.66
xFIP (normalized HR factor): 3.36
BABIP: .332


For those of you not familiar with FIP, it is simply a measure of a pitchers performance in terms of the factors that a pitcher can control. In other words, FIP factors out poor defense. xFIP goes one step further by adjusting for park factors (size) and normalizing FB/HR ratio. Anyway, regardless of your understanding of it, Liriano's FIP is the lowest in the AL and his xFIP is the 4th lowest. It also suggests that his rising ERA might have more to do with J.J. Hardy's absence than anything, a thought that gains traction when you consider that Liriano's struggles started when Hardy went down.


Here's some additional insight from DomeDog:

• It's May. For a team that hasn't been traditionally quick out of the gate (we're more used to furious late-season charges to claw back into the division race) the fact remains that the Twins are still in first place in the AL Central and have been for the bulk of the season. At this point last year, the Twins were 19-23 and were in the midst of a six-game losing streak. There's plenty of baseball to be played yet.
• This was, schedule-wise, by far the worst road trip of the season. The only one that will even come close is a ten-game stretch in early August that will include four games in Tampa. The Twins finally managed a win in New York, snagged another elusive victory in the Rogers Centre, and then ran into two very talented young arms in Boston. Sure, 2-5 is disappointing, but I don't think there's any reason to conclude that this somehow proves the Twins aren't an elite team or that they can't hang with the AL East. Over the course of a 162-game season anyone can beat anyone at any time (sure it's cliche, but true) and even if sabermetricians can't put a finger on why it happens, home field advantage is real. Let's hope this homestand can get the Twins back on track.
• The bases-loaded situation hasn't improved. Wait a second, so why is this a reason for hope? The Twins are batting .170 with the bases loaded, but have generated 53 chances, second in all of baseball. As I noted in an earlier post, the Twins are doing a great job of getting men on base, especially at the top of the order, and getting some more hits to fall in these situations will greatly aid the run production. They won't stay at .170 the whole season, and if they keep up the OBP, even a modest increase in bases-loaded average will help. In addition, AG noted Cuddyer's struggles with grounding into double plays (and he should be best-placed to take advantage of the Morneau-Mauer OBP machine), but points out that his GIDP rate of 24 percent is well above his career average and even though his raw number of GIDPs is the worst in the league, there are plenty of others who have been work percentage-wise. Bottom line, chances are good that these numbers are gonna get better, and with that will come some more scoring.
• J.J. Hardy should be back soon. The mere fact that this will keep the Twins from starting both Punto and Harris on any given day should speak for itself. As AK mentioned, Hardy's range at short should aid run prevention as a whole, especially helping those member of the staff that are more inclined to induce at least some ground balls (see: anyone other than Baker or Slowey). He'll also bring back some power potential to the bottom of the order.

So hands off the panic button, this was a good team at the beginning of the season and is still a good team. There are, as with almost every team out there right now, some holes and some problem spots that need work, but I think as this season continues to progress we will see many more wins than losses and I'm looking forward to another run at the AL Central crown.