Now is the Time to Play it Smart

At 18-37, the Twins are effectively out of the race for the AL Central crown...this is not new news. They're 15.5 games behind Cleveland coming into play today and the astronomical win-loss record they would have to put together from this point forward to win even 90 games is on the edge of ridiculous (for those that are curious, they'd have to go 72-35 from here on out). Everyone and their mom around the interwebs is talking about how the Twins are likely going to be sellers come the trade deadline and while I don't disagree with that sentiment, it can not be said emphatically enough that now is the time for the Twins to be smart and play their cards right.

When you're a "seller" that means a) things haven't gone well for you this year and b)you're not expecting them to get better quickly enough to contend. In terms of getting a good deal, that leaves you at a disadvantage. When you're a seller, you're essentially trying to dump salary or perhaps get a load of prospects in return for a more valuable Major Leaguer. The one thing the Twins absolutely need to keep in mind throughout the next two months is that they have both Michael Cuddyer and Joe Nathan's salaries coming off the books at the end of the season. That's $21,750,000 in salary between those two players alone. In addition to that, Jason Kubel, Matt Capps, and Jim Thome's salaries are also expiring at the end of the season, good for another $15,400,000 off the payroll number. In total, that's $37,150,000 in salary coming off the books at the end of the season, which is about 33% of the current payroll figure ($113M). Granted, yes, you would have to replace those guys, but aside from Kubes you can probably pretty easily replace that production at a fraction of the cost.

So what's the point I'm trying to make? What I'm trying to highlight here is the fact that the Twins don't absolutely NEED to be sellers. Sure, it would be nice to get a couple of prospects for Kubel or Slowey, there isn't much debating that the farm system is in need of an influx in talent...but it isn't worth trading either player unless you're getting something decent in return. The Twins will have enough flexibility with the payroll at the end of this season to make a lot of changes, they don't need to make bad deals now to preemptively try and patch up the holes on a terrible team. The people in the Twins' front office need to be both shrewd and smart right now because for as bad as things look, there is no reason to panic.

I don't think there is much debate that the middle infield is of utmost concern for this team going into next season. That said, considering the investment that the Twins have made in Tsuyoshi Nishioka, it's unlikely that they will be in the market for a 2nd basemen in the off-season. Here's one option that's intriguing:

Kelly Johnson - 2B - Diamondbacks - 29-years-old
Johnson has had somewhat of a down year so far this season, but he owns a career .794 OPS and is a solid defensive 2nd-baseman as well. Johnson has legitimate 20-25HR power and though he does strikeout a lot, he has managed a career .347 OBP. Johnson is set to make $5.85M this season, but could probably be had for $6-$8M per and would be an immediate upgrade over any of the options the Twins currently have at 2nd base.

As for Shortstop, the Twins clearly have a need there. Here are some of the better options:

Jose Reyes - SS - Mets - 27-years-old
Though this is likely a long-shot for the Twins, it's at least worth mentioning that a shortstop of Reyes' caliber will likely be on the market at the end of this season (provided he doesn't re-sign before the end of the year). Reyes has a solid .774 career OPS and while he's no gold-glove at shortstop, he would be light-years better than anything the Twins have, both offensively and defensively.

J.J. Hardy - SS - Orioles - 28-years-old
I find this scenario unlikely as well, considering that a) the Twins traded him away for two garbage relievers and b) there were rumblings that the coaching staff wasn't that impressed with Hardy. The Twins would have to be stupid not to consider this option, however, because the fact of the matter is that the Twins are getting schooled this season on the importance of middle-infield defense and Hardy, when healthy, is about as good as it gets at shortstop.

Rafael Furcal - SS - Dodgers - 33-years-old
While Furcal is an older option, his .285/.350/.410 hitting line would fit nicely into the Twins lineup. With Furcal, the question is always "can he stay healthy" as he has seen significant DL time in 3 out of the last 4 seasons. When he has been healthy he been a good producer offensively and his glove, well, it's been good enough (.965 career Fielding% at SS). The tricky thing with Furcal is that if he reaches 600 PAs this year (unlikely), his $12M option for 2012 become automatic. I can't see the Dodgers picking up a $12M option on him otherwise, so it's likely that Furcal will be a free-agent at the end of this season.

Other options include Yuniesky Betancourt, Ramon Santiago, and Jack Wilson, but to be completely frank, none of those options are much better than the middle-infield options the Twins have had this season.

Given that the Twins will likely have $20-$30M to spend during this coming off-season, using $8M-$10M of that money to fix their shortstop problem should be a no-brainer and they really couldn't go very wrong with any of the three options above. I would be ecstatic to have Reyes, but I find that to be so unlikely, it's not even worth getting excited about. The bottomline with all of this is that the Twins don't need to be aggressive sellers in the next two months and, in fact, they shouldn't make a deal unless they're getting quality in return. Bill Smith could go a long way in repairing his image with Twins fans if he makes patient, smart moves this year that end up paying off next year or down the road.

Filling the Void: Starting Pitching

There's a lot of talk out there right now, various people speculating on what the Twins will do in the off-season and what the Twins should do in the off-season. In my last piece, I went through each Twins' free-agent and tried to guess at what the Twins might do. One thing seems fairly clear; the Twins will not be bringing back Carl Pavano. To do so would not only be expensive, but would also hamper their ability to re-sign some of the valuable bullpen pieces they stand to lose. So assuming Pavano leaves, that leaves you with a rotation consisting of Francisco Liriano, Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey, Brian Duensing and Blackburn (?). To me this seems weak. If Liriano duplicated his efforts from this season and Baker and Slowey were able to remain healthy and effective for an entire season, it doesn't look that bad, but I want to argue that the Twins could make their rotation more impressive if they made a trade for a starting pitcher. Here's a list of the more enticing free-agent and non free-agent options out there:


Kevin Correia - SP - San Diego Padres
"Rough" would be a good way to describe this right-handers 2010 season. He ended the year with a 10-10 record to go along with a 5.40 ERA and 1.49 WHIP. The encouraging thing about Correia's 2010 numbers are the 4.71FIP and 4.19 xFIP. Am I arguing he's a lights-out pitcher? No. I do think, however, that pitching in Target field would benefit him AND he's a better pitcher than he showed this season. Not only that,  he only made $3.6M this past year and would fit nicely into the back-end of the rotation. He's only 30 years old so he's got some left in the tank and who knows, a little work with Rick Anderson might turn this guy right around. He's an out-and-out free-agent so the Twins wouldn't have to work a trade for this guy allowing them to keep their current core of pitchers intact.

Hiroki Kuroda - SP - Los Angeles Dodgers
I would love to land Kuroda, but much like re-signing Pavano, signing Kuroda would likely mean losing most of the current bullpen (unless the Twins front-office decides they can go with a payroll around $120M). In 3 seasons with the Dodgers, Kuroda compiled almost 500 innings, a 3.60ERA and 1.16WHIP. His career FIP sits at 3.57 which means this guy is legit. He's 35 which is getting up there and he made north of $15M last season, but he probably has 2-3 good years left in him and would make a nice right-handed compliment to Liriano. He's not a high strikeout guy (career 6.6 K/9) but he has impeccable control (career 2.1 BB/9) and induces ground-balls at a high rate (career 55.3%).

Cliff Lee - SP - Texas Rangers
Oh how one can dream right? I can't help but wonder how things might have turned out if the Twins had landed Lee instead of Capps. I would put the Twins odds of landing Lee this off-season at about 0.5% so it's probably not worth talking about. Lee will probably command upwards of $20M per year in a new contract which is solidly out of range for the Twins.

Erik Bedard - SP - Seattle Mariners
This lefty hasn't played a full season since 2007, but presents a low-cost, high potential for the Twins, much like Thome last off-season. Bedard has a mutual option with the Mariners for next season (no word on the price of that option) but considering he didn't throw a pitch in 2010, I doubt the Mariners would pick it up...who knows. If he declines the option, the Twins could take a flyer on this guy, sign him to a 1-year, $2M deal and see what happens. Much like Brandon Webb, Bedard has been sidelined for over a year by a shoulder injury, a torn labrum and inflamed bursa-sac in his case. When Bedard has been on the mound, he's been great posting a career 3.71ERA and career 8.8 K/9. He's a risk to sign for sure, but if he can get healthy, he could be very valuable.

Fausto Carmona - SP - Cleveland Indians (Free-Agent, 2015)
This was a guy I lobbied for earlier this season around the trading deadline. Carmona had solid numbers in 2010, was selected to the all-star and best of all, he has dominated other AL central teams during his career. Camona is set to make $6.288M next season and has club options in his contract for 2012, 13 and 14 so he would be worth trading for given the fact he wouldn't just be a one-year rental. Carmona doesn't exactly fit the Twins' mold for starting pitchers, he is prone to walks, but he is a severe ground-ball pitcher which works in any ballpark. I should also mention that Carmona is entering his prime, turning 27 years old in December. I think the Twins would be wise to make a move for this guy, especially since it appears the Indians will be in rebuilding mode for at least another year or two.


Wandy Rodriquez - SP - Houston Astros (Free-Agent, 2012)
This lefty present another relatively low-cost option for the Twins, though a trade would have to take place in order to get him. Rodriguez has pitched right around 200 innings the past two season with pretty good results. He's not a strikeout artist, but over the last three seasons he has K'ed batters at a rate of higher than 8 per 9. Most importantly, he made $5M last year and is in his last year of arbitration eligibility with the Astros. If you figure around $7M through arbitration, that's a pretty fair price for a guy likely to give you ~32 starts and an ERA around 3.50. You could trade away a prospect or you could trade the salary of one of our starting pitchers (Baker, Blackburn?) to make this deal happen. Rodriguez is 31 years old, he's a ground-ball pitcher, he a lefty, and would make a good fit with the Twins.

Zack Greinke - SP - Kansas City Royals (Free-Agent, 2013)
Personally, I don't think Greinke is worth it. If you look at his stat sheet, he had one good year (2009) and most of the other years have been decent, but nothing special. If the Twins did trade for him, they would likely lose valuable major-league talent and would be on the hook for $13.5M to Greinke in 2011 and 2012. Grienke would make a nice addition to the rotation, I do not doubt this, but I would argue you could get equal production from a guy like Wandy Rodriguez at half the price (in money AND talent). Jim Souhan of the Star Tribune likes the prospect of Greinke in the rotation, but MLBTradeRumors isn't buying his proposal.


Those are the obvious starting pitching targets. There are, of course, a number of free-agents out there but most of them are probably not an upgrade from what the Twins have. I think Carmona and Rodriguez present the most enticing options in terms of cost vs. benefit, though I can see the case for landing true top talent as well. I think if the Twins do choose to let Pavano walk, they should make an effort to being in someone else because the results from our starting pitchers not named Liriano this past season were shaky at best.