MLB Should Copy the NHL

I have no idea how many people out there are Hockey fans, I myself follow hockey at a minimal level, but I was intrigued when I read this. This year, the NHL tried something a little different and used a fantasy-type system in selecting the rosters for the annual All-Star game. I haven't heard of another major sport attempting this and it definitely got me thinking.

The NHL, along with the NFL and NBA seem to get it. Their all-star games are, at their base, talent showcases. The outcome of the game is essentially meaningless and both sides are more interested in obtaining bragging rights than anything else. After a few debacles, the MLB decided a few years back to make their All-Star game count for something, namely home-field advantage in the World Series. This isn't new news, obviously, and the merits of this system have been debated from both sides. Those in favor of it say that it adds some intrigue to the game and suggest that the players play harder because the outcome of that game may determine if their team or league gets an advantage in the World Series. Those against it argue that a mid-season, one-game event shouldn't hold that much importance, particularly when every team is allowed a representative, including teams who are essentially out of the playoff picture come mid-July. I tend to be torn, I like that the game has some extra intrigue, but I also see the other side; I find it ridiculous that a one-game "series" determines has such weighty outcome. In other words, I'd be in favor of a change to something else, namely something that keeps the intrigue but reduces the influence of that one game on other parts of the baseball season.

Enter...All-Star Fantasy Draft. Selection systems would remain the same, the fan voting and coaches/players selections, I wouldn't change any of that. The two captains would consist of the highest vote getter the AL against the highest vote getter in the NL...and an all-out fantasy draft would ensue. Do away with the game determining anything, let end-of-season record determine home-field advantage for the World Series.

Seriously, how cool would that be? They could hold the draft right before the Homerun Derby (or after, doesn't matter) which would give the respective managers a day to set their lineups and determine their starting pitchers. Imagine, Pujols and Mauer on the field at the same time,...or a Jeter/Utley SS/2B duo, it would lead to combinations of players that we would never otherwise have a chance to see. That alone would add the intrigue for true baseball fans.

I'm sure there are some logistics that would need to be worked out, but I think the NHL might be on to something here. It's a really interesting idea and it's application to MLB is obvious and exciting. So, Mr. Selig, what do you think, I think it would be a lot of fun!

Meeting Expectations: Kevin Slowey

The Twins and Kevin Slowey agreed to a 1-year, $2.7M deal Tuesday, avoiding arbitration in Slowey's first year of arbitration eligibility. A few others have written about the deal, including a good piece by Nick Nelson for TwinsCentric. I'd also like to take a look at Kevin Slowey and see what we might be able to expect from the 26-year-old right-hander going forward.

Slowey has about as impressive a minor-league track record as anyone has had in the Twins organization. In 367.1 minor league innings, he compiled a 1.94 ERA, a 0.849 WHIP and an eye-popping 6.94 K/BB ratio. His Major League success has been much more tempered, though Slowey has continued to exhibit fantastic command throughout.

Kevin is entering his prime years, the period from 27-32 when a pitcher should (*) have his most productive seasons. Slowey's had a couple of injuries so far in 3 full seasons though one of them was more of the accident variety (getting hit in the wrist by a batted ball), so I hesitate to label him "injury prone." In those three seasons, he's started 71 games which is an average of almost 24 starts per year...not bad. I think if Slowey is going to have that "breakout" year, this might be it.

In 2009, Slowey had a rough April before settling down and putting together a nice string of starts. In 12 starts between April 18th and June 19th, Slowey averaged about 6 innings per start and only allowed more than 3 runs in 2 of those 12 starts. Things got rough again after that, with Slowey complaining of wrist pain (likely from his batted ball incident the prior year), which led to season-ending wrist surgery. In 2010, Slowey was back in the starting rotation and started the year nicely, allowing more than 3 runs only 2 times in his first 12 starts of the year. Things took a turn in mid-June and Slowey was held out of a few starts due to right-elbow pain, including being pulled in the 7th inning of a no-hitter (which I was at). His innings through the end of the season were pretty limited, though he did finish the year with a tidy 13-6 record and serviceable 4.45 ERA.

In comparing Slowey's 2008 and 2010 seasons, I noticed a couple of things (he pitched 160.1 innings in 2008 and 155.2 in 2010 so the sample size is comparable). In 2008, Slowey induced GBs at a much higher percentage (36.1%) than in 2010 (28.3%). Meanwhile his LD% stayed about the same (19.1% in 2008 vs. 21.1% in 2010) while his FB% went from 44.8% to 50.6%, good for an increase of almost 13%. Over the course of 3 full seasons, his GB rate has dropped every season while his FB rate has increased. This isn't overly concerning since Slowey now pitches in a spacious ballpark half the time, but it's certainly not the direction you'd like to see him headed in.

In looking at his swing statistics, another pattern emerges...

Thanks to FanGraphs

Between 2008 and 2010, Slowey's O-Contact% (percentage of times a batter makes contact on a pitch thrown outside of the strikezone) went from 70.1% to 77.6%. His Z-Contact% (percentage of times a batter makes contact on a pitch thrown inside the strikezone) went from 85.7% to 90.2%. In short, batters are simply making contact with Slowey's pitches at a higher rate, and when they are making contact on over 90% of pitches in the K-zone...you're gonna give up some runs, especially when you don't have overpowering stuff (for comparison, Liriano's Z-Contact% was 85.8% in 2010, and is at 83% for his career). On top of all of this, Slowey's BB/9 was higher in 2010 (1.68) than it was in 2008 (1.35), and his K/9 was lower in 2010 (6.71) versus 2008 (6.90).

Curiously, Slowey's FIP in 2008 vs. 2010 is not much different, 3.91 vs. 3.98 respectively. So why a 4.45ERA in 2010 vs. a 3.99 mark in 2008? It's hard to put a finger in it exactly, yes the walk rate was up and the K-rate down, but Slowey's strand-rate was almost identical and his HR/9 was nearly identical as well. More than likely a combination of more base-runners (1.15WHIP in 2008, 1.29WHIP in 2010) and a slightly higher BABIP, .307 in 2010 vs. .290 in 2008, added up to the extra 1/2 run on the ERA (maybe throw poor outfield D in there?).

So, all that said, what can we expect from a healthy (hopefully) Slowey in 2011? I would take an average of 2008 and 2010, depending on luck of course, which we can't really account for. What is going to prevent Slowey from really being dominant in the Majors is the fact that he relies so much on location. In the minors, pinpoint control goes a long way because a lot of the hitters don't have well-developed plate discipline. In the Majors it's a different story and history bears out the truth. You can certainly be a good location pitcher in the Majors, people like Moyer, Maddux (later-years), Radke, Glavine (later-years), Buerhle, etc. have had great careers. Slowey doesn't have a bad fastball (90-91mph) and his sinker (90-92mph) is a good pitch too, but they aren't blow-you-away pitches.

Slowey's game is limiting base-runners and insofar as he can do that, it will determine how much success he has. My guess on the numbers we can expect from Slowey are as follows:

180 IP
4.20ERA
1.20 WHIP
130-140K
25-35BB
13-16 Wins
2.0-3.0 WAR

For $2.7M, that's a pretty good deal. Fortunately, the Twins aren't relying on Slowey to be a #1 or even a #2 starter. He makes a very good #3 or #4 (depending on where you slot Baker) and should be in line for a bounce-back season of sorts.

Redemption

It's been reported by various sources that Carl Pavano has re-signed for the Twins for ... wait for it ... $16.5M. Now that is what I'm talkin' about! Pavano was reportedly offered a deal by the Yankees for one-year and $10M. TwinsGeek said it first, but Pavano probably signed for half to three-quarters of his market value at the beginning of the off-season. There are probably many theories out there on why this deal was so long in the making and why few other clubs were interested in Pavano, but it can't be ignored that Pavano is 35-years-old and has had only a few seasons during his career in which made it through an entire season without injury.

I think this deal is good for the Twins on a number of fronts. First and foremost, the deal provides the Twins some insurance in the event that Pavano does experience injury over the next two seasons. Yes, they are still on the hook for $8.25M per, but that's vastly less than Pavano was expected to sign for. Secondly, this provides the Twins with some extra cash to spend on the bullpen in the last couple months of the off-season. That is huge. For a team with such a void to fill, any wiggle-room is big. Thirdly, Pavano is back with the Twins for two years. He is a veteran presence, by all accounts a good clubhouse guy, and so far with the Twins, he's been consistent and effective. Even if his production declines a little over the next year or two, the Twins will still have guy who can go out there every 5 days (again, if he stays healthy) and give them 5-7 serviceable innings. TwinkieTown had an excellent piece today looking ahead to next year's off-season, paying special attention to the fact that the Twins may very well have $20-$30M to spend. With Pavano locked up beyond next year, he's one less guy they will have to think about, giving them an opportunity to be a major player in the free-agent market in 2012. Who knows what this year will bring, but there is optimism for the Twins beyond this season.

Welcome back 'stash!

Twins 2011 Starting Rotation: New Season, Familiar Faces

So I've been away from blogging for a while, part of it being due to a longer-than-usual post-playoff slump, part of it being due to a much busier work schedule, and part of it being due to an offseason that hasn't thus far provided much to write about (although that should be something we're used to, last winter notwithstanding). Regardless of the reasons, my contributions to this site have been lacking (or nonexistent), leaving AK to shoulder the load, which he has done with his usual excellence. I have to admit that my mind hasn't yet fully shifted into Twins mode, but with the first workout for pitchers and catchers exactly a month away, it's time.

We've already covered the presumptive starting lineup, so now let's take a look at the starting rotation, leaving the biggest questions on the team (the bullpen) for last. Regarding stats, it's still a little early for a lot of projection systems; I don't think PECOTA is out yet and apparently CHONE is deceased, so I'll throw in the recently-released (and notably regression-heavy) ZiPS projections as a point of comparison. Jesse over at Twinkie Town has done some nice work with the offensive numbers, but I'm only looking at the pitchers here. I'm also going to assume that Carl Pavano will be re-signed, which Joe C thinks will be done later this week. I think I'm still generally in favor of a two-year deal depending on the terms, but I'd wager some regression is in the cards for Pavstache.

1. Francisco Liriano

	Record	ERA	FIP	xFIP	WHIP	K/9	K/BB
2010	14-10	3.62	2.66	3.06	1.26	9.44	3.47
2011 ZiPS	14-9	3.92			1.33	8.68	2.72

Last season, if perhaps not regaining his untouchable 2006 form (complete with the arm-straining mechanics that produced the filthiest slider in the league but probably weren't sustainable in the long run), Liriano took strides towards becoming the legitimate ace the Twins had been lacking for years. His ability to miss bats and limit walks produced a FIP of 2.66, good for third in all of baseball. Perhaps more importantly, he was able to avoid injury, eating 191 innings, by far his most in a major league season (although in 2008 he threw almost 200, with the bulk of those coming at the AAA level). Projections have his HR total nearly doubling, as he allowed only 9 all of last season for a below-average HR/FB rate of 6.3%. Even with some normalization in that regard, however, the flip side of that coin is the .340 BABIP that ranked as the second-unluckiest mark in the league that should certainly correct downward. There's no reason that Liriano shouldn't be one of the top pitchers in the AL if he can stay healthy, continue to generate strikeouts, and keep the ball on the ground. The bottom line is that the Twins will need Liriano to continue his development into a true staff ace if they want to contend or make any sort of deep playoff run this season.

2. Scott Baker

	Record	ERA	FIP	xFIP	WHIP	K/9	K/BB
2010	12-9	4.49	3.96	4.02	1.34	7.82	3.44
2011 ZiPS	13-9	4.02			1.24	7.79	3.58

Is there any pitcher on the staff that is more frustrating than Scott Baker? I should clarify- this isn't meant to be a knock on Baker. He's been the epitome of "solid but not spectacular" the last few seasons, posting a FIP under 4 in three of four recent campaigns. It's the "spectacular" part that gets me, namely Baker's flashes of absolute brilliance that are often followed up by a huge dud. Case in point: June 16th vs Colorado last year, Baker looks completely dominant, striking out 12 in 7 innings and walking only one. A week and a half later, he gives up three home runs to the Mets and barely makes it out of the fourth inning. The long ball is certainly one of Baker's weak spots, given that he's an extreme fly ball pitcher. His HR/FB rate of 10.2% last year was right around average, but the fact that Baker has one of the highest fly ball percentages in the AL means that there are more opportunities for those flies to turn into homers. With the way Target Field plays, one would think that would play to Baker's advantage, but I'm not sure the stats are there to support that yet (in a small sample size, Baker's home HR total total decreased from 12 in 2009 to 8 in 2010, but there's no way of knowing how much of that was due to Target Field). I'd expect some BABIP correction to benefit Baker, as his mark of .329 last year was a little high, and there's a positive trend in that his strikeout rate has trended upwards every year he's been in the league. Baker turns 30 next season, and the true "breakout" year that some of us have predicted in the past maybe isn't likely, but there's no reason we shouldn't expect at least modest improvement for an already solid starter.

3. Carl Pavano

	Record	ERA	FIP	xFIP	WHIP	K/9	K/BB
2010	17-11	3.75	4.02	4.01	1.19	4.76	3.16
2011 ZiPS	11-10	4.47			1.29	5.62	3.32

Here's the wild card. While he's not officially signed yet, what should we expect from the recently-turned-35 Carl Pavano in 2011? Pavano proved a key part of the Twins rotation last year, gobbling up 221 innings with a tidy ERA of 3.75, which only marginally exceeded his peripherals. His strikeout rate was certainly unspectacular and represented a marked decrease from 2009, but Pavano was able to make up for it by limiting walks. If you buy into FanGraphs' WAR values, his 2010 performance was worth $12.6 MM. And hey, in honor of Gardy, I'll mention that it certainly seems like Pavano is a "great clubhouse guy" and veteran presence in a young rotation. The computers, however, seem to be taking note of his veteran status. Of the currently-released projections, ZiPS is certainly the hardest on Pavano in terms of ERA (Bill James has him at 4.16), and it has him pegged for only 165 innings in 2011, meaning it thinks some time on the DL is likely. Oddly, though, ZiPS predicts an improvement in K rate and K/BB ratio. I'm a glass-is-half-full kinda guy, so I'll take the over on innings pitched, and I don't see anything glaring in last year's peripherals that would suggest a major statistical correction is in order. However, there's no way around the fact that Pavano is aging. He's never had overpowering raw stuff, and he'll need to rely on his ability to keep the ball on the ground, which he did at career-high clip of 51.2% last season. If you want a statistical reference point for crafy veteran-ness, though, it's pretty interesting that Pavano led all of the majors last season by inducing a 35.9% swing rate on balls outside the zone, a category in which he also led the league in 2009. I'll keep mentioning the holes in the bullpen because that is this team's glaring weakness, and much of Pavano's value is tied up in his ability to eat innings and pitch deep into games, which will take on even more important with the current lack of late-inning options. If (and this is potentially a big if) Pavano can avoid missing significant time for injury, I think he'll once again be a valuable part of this rotation if the price is right.

4. Kevin Slowey

	Record	ERA	FIP	xFIP	WHIP	K/9	K/BB
2010	13-6	4.45	3.98	4.48	1.29	6.71	4.00
2011 ZiPS	11-9	4.33			1.25	7.25	4.25

If not a carbon copy of Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey certainly exhibits a fair number of similarities. Both strike out a fairly respectable number of batters, and while both exhibit excellent control, Slowey is Exhibit A of the Twins' emphasis on limiting free passes. K/BB rate isn't necessarily the best predictor of success, but in that regard, Slowey shines; his mark of 4.60 from 2007-2010 is sandwiched right in second place between Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee. Pretty good company. It's this talent that had some fans, like myself, anticipating much more out of Slowey after what looked to be a pre-breakout 2008 season. But 2009 was cut short by a wrist injury, and in 2010, Slowey never seemed to quite find his groove (a seven-inning no-hitter notwithstanding). His 3.98 FIP was respectable enough, but there were a few worrying signs that will need to turn around if Slowey is to improve in 2011. Back to the Baker analogy, Slowey surpasses his counterpart in his extreme fly ball tendencies. Among pitchers with 150 IP, only Ted Lilly allowed more fly balls and induced fewer grounders, and in fact, Slowey's GB rate of 28.3% was his lowest season mark yet and represents a downward trend over the last three seasons. That's not a recipe for becoming better then a league-average pitcher, even if Slowey may have the K/BB numbers to hang with the big boys. The projections seem to agree, thinking he's in for no more than modest improvements. Slowey's numbers certainly aren't bad for a fourth starter, but I've been hoping for more. Let's hope he proves me wrong.

5. Nick Blackburn

	Record	ERA	FIP	xFIP	WHIP	K/9	K/BB
2010	10-12	5.42	5.07	4.62	1.45	3.8	1.70
2011 ZiPS	10-11	4.88			1.41	4.42	2.1

Brian Duensing

	Record	ERA	FIP	xFIP	WHIP	K/9	K/BB
2010	10-3	2.62	3.85	4.1	1.2	5.37	2.23
2011 ZiPS	8-7	4.46			1.43	5.06	1.72

I've included both players here because this is likely to be one of the battles to watch in Spring Training. After pitching extremely well out of the bullpen for the much of the season last year, Duensing was called upon to take Blackburn's rotation slot after the latter's historically bad (read our post about it here) June and July. It appeared that Blackburn's extreme pitch-to-contact ways (91% of his pitches were put in play last season) had finally caught up with him. Taken as a whole, his 2010 numbers are putrid. To Blackburn's credit, though, after getting busted to the minors he came back and pitched well in the last few games of the season. He misses hardly any bats, but what Blackburn does have going for him is the ability to induce ground ball outs, something he absolutely must do to have any chance and which he did more than 50% of the time last season. Duensing, however, killed even more worms than Blackburn last season (52.9% GB rate) and has proven he's a generally more effective starter when given the opportunity. Duensing's sparkling numbers last season are partly mitigated by the fact that he spent much of the year as a left-handed specialist out of the bullpen, allowing him to face mostly lefty hitters (which he excels at). He also benefited from a significantly below average BABIP of .254. ZiPS has Duensing with better numbers across the board in 2011, but if I had to bet on it, I'd have to say the job is probably Blackburn's to lose, if only for the fact that Duensing is actually a valuable commodity in the bullpen, whereas Blackburn probably is not. I'd like to see Duensing get the nod from the outset, but if I'm honest I'd say he probably starts 2011 where he started 2010.

Although the Twins' 2011 rotation essentially resembles last year's model, the biggest questions will be whether Liriano continues his ascent to elite status, whether Baker and Slowey can stay solid and find even small ways to get better, whether Pavano can hold off the effects of age and once again reach or surpass 200 innings, and whether Blackburn or Duensing will get the nod in the fifth slot. We'll certainly be paying attention to Kyle Gibson's rise through the minors, but at this point, it looks like things are pretty much set. Neither the White Sox or Tigers made any significant changes to their respective rotations either, so the same cast of characters will be left to duke it out once again for the AL Central title. I can't say I fault the Twins for not making any moves, as there weren't many moves to be made here. We'll have to wait and see if the Twins do anything else to shore up the other side of the pitching equation, which is a much more pressing concern. But that's another story for another day.

Infield/Outfield Set, Bullpen Needs Help

I can't wait for this.

With the news coming yesterday that Alexi Casilla and the Twins avoided arbitration with a one-year, $865K deal, and with last week's re-signing of Jim Thome, the Twins have pretty much filled every infield and outfield position, the only question-mark remaining is the bullpen (!). Let's take a look: 

Catcher: Joe Mauer ($23.00M)
This is the first year of Mauer's new deal and the main question revolving around Joe will be, "can he stay healthy?" When he's played, the production has been there and he's about as consistent as it gets in that department. Mauer will again have a fairly young rotation to work with, but they are all guys he knows well. With Kyle Gibson possibly getting a crack at the Bigs and a bunch of new arms in the 'pen, Mauer will have some new faces, but he's proven a good leader so it's nothing he won't be able to handle. 

1st Base: Justin Morneau - hopefully - ($15.00M)
So the Twins felt it necessary to announce that they think Justin will be ready for Spring Training...and in my book that's a bad sign. If things were going well, why would they have to announce anything, and how many times last year were we told, "oh, things are getting better" only for that to be followed up by a setback? I REALLY hope Morneau isn't another Corey Koskie, but the way this thing is dragging on, it has me concerned. The Twins have shown they can win without Morneau, but their offense is much better with him and he gives the Twins way more options when he's manning 1st base. Here's to hoping Morneau is back playing at the start of this season.
 
2nd Base: Tsuyoshi Nishioka ($3.00M)
It will be interesting to see what this kid can do. Along with many other Twins bloggers, I wrote about him a couple of months ago and he definitely has potential, both defensively and offensively. I hope that he shows up to Spring Training early and is able to spend a lot of time working with Gardenhire and other Twins coaches because he is going to be an integral part of this year's team. Last year, the Twins had a middle-infield battery of JJ Hardy and Orlando Hudson and that defense was good. This year they have two new faces at very important positions and it's going to be imperative that Casilla and Nishioka work well together.

Shortstop: Alexi Casilla ($865K)
Along with Nishioka, Casilla will also be playing an integral part on this year's team as the Twins will be relying on Casilla to produce, both offensively and defensively, on a day-in, day-out basis. Casilla and Nishioka are going to be relied upon not only because of the positions they play, but also because the back-up options behind them are, well, not good ones. Casilla has speed and a good glove, where he has the potential to struggle is at the plate. Like Nishioka, I hope Casilla shows up at Spring Training early to prepare for his new full-time gig.

3rd Base: Danny Valencia (I have no idea what his salary is, $400K?)
I may be in the minority, I don't know, but I think Valencia is in for a disappointing season. His .345 overall BABIP and .416 home BABIP are both unsustainable and Valencia's minor league track record suggests that he is not quite the player that last season's production might suggest. Who knows, maybe he's one of very few players who outperform their minor-league track record. More than likely, though, we're looking at a .280-.290 hitter with a decent .350-something on-base percentage and some power potential. Defensively Valencia was pretty solid last year and I think that bodes well for the Twins. I'm hopeful that Valencia continues to thrive in the Majors, but I think 2011 will be a rougher ride.

Left-Field: Delmon Young (~$3.5M?)
Delmon had somewhat of a break-out year last year and the Twins will be looking for him to continue that trend. Young cut way down on the Ks last year while raising his BB% and that patience at the plate paid off with Young having the best offensive season of his career. Young is still only 25-years old and is just now entering the "power years." He's still a liability defensively, but that bat can negate many of those issues. I'm looking for Delmon to have a fantastic 2011 season.

Center Field: Denard Span ($1.00M)
D-Span followed up two .800+ OPS seasons with a stinker last year, finishing with a paltry line of .264/.331/.348. I think of all of the Twins players, D-Span seemed most affected by Target Field, but hopefully he can turn it around this season. Even if he was able to find a middle ground between last season and the two seasons prior, he would be ok. He's the best OF fielding option the Twins have, by far, and he has pretty good speed on the bases as well. Hopefully some off-season work with the hitting coaches will make D-Span's 2011 season a bit more productive.

Right-Field: Michael Cuddyer ($10.50M) / Jason Kubel ($5.25M)
Provided Morneau is healthy (please God), Cuddyer will be able to resume his normal right-field position, and will be an automatic defensive upgrade over Jason Kubel. With Cuddyer, I have no doubts, he's very consistent both defensively and offensively for the Twins and has been a down-the-stretch catalyst for them the past two seasons. Kubel is going to have to prove himself yet again this season after a very disappointing season, his worst in the past 4 seasons. Kubel will have to work to get regular playing time, especially considering Thome is likely to receive a fair-amount of the DH duties. If Morneau is still down come Opening Day, Kubel will see more time, but that's a less-than-desirable scenario given Kubel's poor defensive skills.

Designated Hitter: Jim Thome ($3M + incentives) / Jason Kubel / Delmon Young
I like the re-signing of Thome not only for his presence with the team which is positive and upbeat, but also for his potential ROI, which I would have to say is high considering the cost. Earlier in the off-season, I was against re-signing Jimbo, particularly because of the track record of over-40 sluggers, but Jim brings more than just a bat to the team, he brings experience and that attitude that is infectious in the clubhouse. I don't expect he'll hit 25 HRs again this year, but for $3M, even if he hits 15-20 he'd be worth the money.


Barring injury or unforeseen trade, those are your likely starters at each position for the 2011 season. I think it will be pretty obvious in Spring Training how the Casilla/Nishioka experiment is going to go, but again, the Twins don't exactly have many alternatives if it turns out to be a disaster. Top to bottom the lineup looks solid, particularly if Morneau is back. Here's my projected 2011 Minnesota Twins lineup:

1. Denard Span (L)
2. Tsuyoshi Nishioka (S)
3. Joe Mauer (L)
4. Justin Morneau (L)
5. Delmon Young (R)
6. Jim Thome (L) /Jason Kubel (L)
7. Michael Cuddyer (R)
8. Danny Valencia (R)
9. Alexi Casilla (S)

That seems like a lot from the left-side in the middle of the lineup, but I don't see many other ways to stack it, particularly if you want your power in the middle. Anyway, I like the way it looks, something tells me Nishioka is going to benefit greatly from having Mauer behind him. The middle looks fearsome with legit power in the 4, 5, 6, and 7 holes. I like Casilla batting 9th because with D-Span and T-Nish following, you will have some legit speed in front of Mauer/Morneau. Those are my thoughts, what do you think?

Despite Steroids, McGwire Doesn't Belong

The Hall of Fame voting provides fodder for endless discussion at work with fellow baseball fans and one thing I keep hearing around the water cooler AND among the bloggers/articles is this notion that McGwire is somehow being denied a shot at the Hall of Fame. The din regarding this subject was less this year than last, but I'm still hearing it. I'm here to say that even with steroids, McGwire's numbers were not Hall of Fame caliber. He stands out as a player in your mind because of a couple of magical seasons in the late '90s, but aside from that brief period, his stats are underwhelming.

Here are the numbers (click the pic for a larger view or visit here):

Alright, so obviously the 583 career HRs pop out. The .982 career OPS is not bad either. McGwire was clearly a HR hitter from the very start of his career and, in fact, his rookie record of 49 homeruns remains the record to this day. I suspect (and McGwire has said as much) that he started taking steroids as a result of injury-riddled seasons from 1993-95 in attempts to heal his body more quickly. It worked because he played in almost every game from '96 to '99.

For the sake of my argument, I'm going to lead you through an exercise. From 1987 to 1992 McGwire played in most of the games during those seasons and averaged 36.16 HRs and 99.8 RBIs per year. From 1996 to 1999, McGwire again played in a vast majority of the games in those seasons but his averages went up to 61.25 HRs and 132.5 RBIs. So, let us assume that steroids accounted for that increase in production (even though I'm not entirely sold on that idea). That's ~25 less HRs per year and ~32.7 less RBIs per year. If you make those adjustments to McGwire's career numbers, 100 less HRs and 130 less RBIs, McGwire's numbers, though still admirable, do not look Hall worthy.

483 HRs, 1,067 Rs, and 1,284 RBIs aren't nearly the eye-popping numbers we see now on the stat sheet. Not only that, you'd have to make subsequent adjustments to the SLG% and OPS numbers. Towards the bottom of the Baseball-Reference page is a short summary of a given player's HOF credentials. Among the 4 categories, McGwire's numbers as they stand make him a pretty average HOFer, but if you take away some of the possibly enhanced figures, I bet his credentials would be a little more shaky, especially since the HOF monitor takes into account things like, "leading the league in HRs" and other similar "stats." The bottomline for me is that none of the numbers I quoted above (483/1067/1284) are HOF worthy, especially given the inflation some of those numbers have gone through over the past several years. The bar is generally thought to be 500 HRs, 1200Rs or 1500 RBIs and even with some inflated numbers, McGwire only meets the standard in one of those categories.

I think until Cooperstown itself comes out with a statement on the Steroid Era, there will continue to be this divide amongst the writers. Even if Cooperstown comes out with something there will still be a divide, but it will be lessened. The issue is going to come to a head here within a few years because eventually we're going to have the likes of Bonds and A-Rod on the ballot and it will be impossible to keep them out of the Hall (not they should be kept out anyway). So if some known Steroid users are allowed in the Hall but others are not because of Steroid use, there is going to be this very odd double-standard which creates a big mess. The Hall should nip this all in the bud and address it now.

Future HOFer?: Carlos Delgado

I didn't intend to take 2-3 weeks off of blogging about the Twins, but to be honest, there hasn't been much of anything to talk about. I could do a Top 20 Prospect list like many others out there, or a Top 40 Twins of All-Time like Gleeman, but that sort of thing is basically a blogging euphemism for "nothing is happening." No offense to anyone who puts those together, I really enjoy reading the lists, but that's not for me.

One thing I like to do from time to time is take a look at certain players who may be on the cusp of having potential Hall of Fame stats and speculate on their chances. I've done it with Johnny Damon, Todd Helton and Bobby Abreu and the Damon piece actually got a fair amount of play. Today's candidate is Carlos Delgado.

Delgado was signed, at age 17, by the Toronto Blue Jays as an amateur free-agent in 1988, right out of high-school. Between 1989 and 1995, Delgado spent a significant amount of time in the minors, though he did make his Major League debut in 1993, playing in 2 game during a year in which the Blue Jays won the World Series (Delgado didn't play in the post-season). With a .302/.403/.520 career minor league hitting line, it was clear that Delgado had the bat to make it in the Majors. In 1996, he became a full-time Major Leaguer, splitting time between 1st base and DH.

From the time Delgado had a full-time spot in the Bigs, he didn't disappoint. Starting in 1996, he ripped off 13 consecutive seasons with at least 24HRs and 91RBIs. Over that period he had over 35HRs seven times (including over 30 in ten consecutive years) and knocked in over 100 nine times. He finished in the top-10 in the MVP voting 4 times during his career, won the Silver Slugger Award 3 times, and was elected to the All-Star team 2 times (2000 and 2003).

Delgado's career triple-slash is an impressive .280/.383/.546, and if he doesn't play again, he'll finish his career with 1,512 RBIs (49th All-Time), 473 HRs (30th All-Time), and 1,241 Rs. His career 138 OPS+ ranked 83rd All-Time which puts him ahead of HOFers such as George Brett, Ken Griffey Jr. (sure-fire HOFer), Larry Doby and Al Kaline. As far as Puerto Rican players go, he ranks #1 all-time in HRs and RBIs.

At 38, it appears that Delgado's career is very near the end, if not already over. After playing only 26 games in the 2009 season, Delgado managed only 5 minor league games last season and has been battling hip issues over that period. Unless a team takes a flier on him, it's doubtful we'll see him in a Major League uniform again, though it's not entirely out of the question. On the strength of Delgado's HR and RBI numbers alone he looks Hall worthy. His 15,144 putouts at 1st base ranks him 42nd All-Time and he showed some durability during his prime. He had the misfortune of playing during the Steroid era so the question will probably hang over him. I would assert that Delgado is definitely in the discussion for the Hall of Fame, but he is by no means a 1st ballot, no-doubter. He was a very good player during his time and one of the best in Jays history, but offensively talented 1st basemen aren't exactly rare making the competition steep.

As a side note, CONGRATS TO BERT BLYLEVEN. Dozens of other Twins blogs have written about it so I won't over-saturate the market, but he's been waiting a long time, it's good to see him finally get the nod.

Brew Crew Lands Greinke

I was a little [read: a lot] surprised to read on Saturday that the Brewers landed Zack Greinke in a 4-for-2 trade that saw Alcides Escobar, Lorenzo Cain, Jeremy Jeffress, and Jake Odorizzi go to the Royals in exchange for the right-hander, Yuniesky Betancourt, and $2MM cash. Escobar and Cain both played at the Major League level last year while Jeffress and Odorizzi fall solidly into the prospect category. I can't help but feel a little sad for Royals fans, this is the umpteenth good player to leave the organization in the last 10 years, not many people attend Royals games anyway, but they may have even less reason to now.

In examining the trade, it actually looks pretty good, and even has the potential to benefit the Royals more than the Brewers long-term; let's go player-by-player: 

1.) Alcides Escobar - SS
Escobar was considered a 5-Star prospect (their highest rating) by Baseball Prospectus and was also considered the Brewers top prospect by Baseball America prior to last season. He spent the entire year up with the Major League club after a spot opened up following the JJ Hardy trade. Escobar was underwhelming at the plate with a .235/.288/.326 hitting line. However, he was above-average defensively and he is only 24. Not only that, his Minor League track record (.293/.333/.377) suggests he's likely to become a much more consistent hitter at the plate. If that were to happen and his defense was to continue to be above-average, he would quickly become one of the more valuable shortstops in the game. 

2.) Lorenzo Cain - CF/OF
Cain also got Major League experience last year and showed off quite a bat (.306/.348/.415 in 158PAs). Cain was drafted by the Brewers in the 17th round of the 2004 draft and though he spent parts of 6 years in the Minors, he is still only 24 years old and has not only proven he can hit, he has also flashed some excellent speed and base-stealing abilities. Between 2 minor league levels and the Majors last year, he stole 33 bases while only being caught 4 times. Cain figures to be an everyday CFer for the Royals and if he can keep that hitting up, could be a superstar in a short time. 

3.) Jeremy Jeffress - RP/SP (maybe)
Jeffress was selected by the Brewers with the 16th pick in the 2006 Amateur Draft. To say the Royals are taking a major gamble on Jeffress is an understatement. Jeremy has had numerous substance abuse problems and that resulted in a 100-game suspension in 2009 causing him to miss most of 2009 and half of the 2010 season. When Jeffress has been pitching, he's been great at times, highlighted best by this past season which saw him pitch in 24 games and compile a 2.23ERA and 0.92WHIP in 32.1 innings while striking out batters to the tune of 12.0 per 9-innings pitched. Jeffress' best pitch is his fastball which averaged 96-mph this past year. That is some rare-company, only 2 starting pitchers and 6 relievers averaged a faster fastball this past season. If Jeffress can stay away from drugs and stay on a straight-line, he could be incredibly valuable, but again, considering his track record, it's quite a gamble. 

4.) Jake Odorizzi - SP
Odorizzi was taken in the 1st round (32nd pick) of the 2008 Amateur draft and is easily the most unpolished prospect in the deal having only reached Single-A this past year. That said, he probably has the most upside and is an pretty intriguing prospect having compiled a 3.43ERA, 1.15WHIP and 10.1 K/9 in 120.2 innings as a starter last season. As impressive as those stats is the fact that he's just a kid at 20-years-old. More than a few articles have used the words "sensation" and "phenom" when talking about Jake and considering he was drafted in the 1st round right out of high school, there may be something to that. More than likely we will see Odorizzi pitching in the Majors within the next two years and he has the potential to be the Royals next Greinke.


So I couldn't help but compare the Brewers offer to what the Twins could have offered...let's just say, the comparison isn't much of a comparison at all. Even if the Twins had given up their two best prospects which is generally thought of to be some combination of Revere, Hicks and Gibson it wouldn't really approach the potential of Odorizzi and Jeffress, and then you throw two young talents like Cain and Escobar,...man, the Brewers really "gave away the farm" to get Greinke and that's no understatement. If they don't win a World Series title within the next couple of years (or this year for that matter), they will toil in mediocrity for awhile because unless they raise payroll substantially they will lose Prince Fielder and possibly Ryan Braun as well leaving them with a tattered infield and outfield and no decent prospects to replace them. Good luck Brewers!

Seriously?

I'm a little surprised that there hasn't been more written about Jesse Crain today, considering that he was signed BY THE WHITE SOX yesterday, getting a 3-year deal worth a reported $13M. When I read it I literally said, out loud, "What the F*#%." Crain's deal represents a pretty good raise (he made $2M last year) and it's probably overall a stupid move on the White Sox part, but what really sucks is that he went to a division opponent...

I really don't see the vision of the Twins front-office this off-season...it's getting to the point of absurdity. First (not in chronological order) you trade a VALUABLE short-stop in JJ Hardy for 2 minor-league also-rans. Then you make a run at a Japanese League player (Nishioka) who is completely unproven and every bit as injury-prone as the shortstop you had. Then you watch two of your bullpen stalwarts from last year walk, one to a team within the division. Then you give pretty much everyone the impression that you're trying to sign a 35-year-old pitcher with a lengthy injury history to a multi-year deal. And on top of all that you're probably going to overpay a reliever you traded ONE OF YOUR TOP PROSPECTS for last year. Man, when I look at all of that together in one paragraph, my blood starts to boil, who is running this team and what have they done???

Here's how my blueprint for the off-season would have gone, unfortunately it's WAY too late for any of this to play out:

1.) Re-sign JJ Hardy to a two-year deal, $12-$14M
Rationale: Hardy's had a mediocre two year stretch and he's still one of the top 10 at his position. His defense alone almost makes it worth re-signing him and if he had been able to play the next two years at a level similar to his 2010 second-half production, he would have made a very valuable, and very affordable SS. Instead the Twins decided to blow $5M on a posting-fee for an unproven Japanese player and then sign the kid to what will likely be a 3-year, $10M deal...where did you save all that much money in that equation??


2.) Trade Danny Valencia, a prospect Kevin Slowey/Nick Blackburn ($3M) to the Indians for Fausto Carmona
Rationale: I'm not sure how the money works out there, but the Indians are clearly in cost-savings mode considering they recently slashed ticket prices and are set to have one of the more meager payrolls in baseball this coming season. Let's all be honest with ourselves, Danny Valencia is never going to duplicate what he did last season and the Twins need pitching. Say the Indians bite on Blackburn, Valencia and Hick/Revere/Somebody. The Twins starting rotation then looks like Liriano, Carmona, Baker, Slowey, Duensing...not bad. For a mere $28M the Twins could keep Carmona through 2014. Total addition to the payroll this year: ~$3M

3.) Let Carl Pavano walk, let Matt Capps walk
Rationale: I don't care what the argument is, re-signing Pavano is not a good idea in ANY situation I can see, unless you're talking about a one-year deal and let's be honest, some other team out there is going to be willing to give him more than one-year, I just don't want it to be the Twins and CERTAINLY not for $10-$15M per. As for Matt Capps, come on Billy, you f-ed up, just admit it and move on and drop Capps, it's not worth keeping him.

4.) Try and sign Adrian Beltre
Rationale: Sometimes you have to go for it and that, for the Twins, means extending that payroll, maybe even a little beyond what's comfortable...or practical...kinda like what the White Sox are doing right now. Anyway, the consensus seems to be that 5-years and $70M would do it...that's about $14M per, it's steep, but you're getting a very solid defensive 3rd basemen with quite a bat. He wouldn't duplicate his home-run binge from last year if he played at Target Field, but he would certainly hit his share of doubles and be a nice addition to the Mauer/Morneau combo.

5.) I suppose there's no way, given the previous scenarios I've laid out, to re-sign either Crain or Guerrier, but if the Twins hadn't idiotically committed to re-signing Capps, they'd have a nice bit of change to make a run at it. Short of that, as Gleeman pointed out today, there should be a number of serviceable arms left after this initial bullpen feeding frenzy to piece something together.


So it's pie-in-the-sky. Unfortunately Hardy is already gone and the Twins have already managed to bungle up this off-season pretty badly. I'm really trying to be optimistic, but this is some pretty poor decision making. Maybe I'll be wrong, maybe Nishioka turns into an infield version of Ichiro, maybe the Twins call up Gibson and he becomes David Price-esque. Maybe, maybe, maybe. I see all that, but to me, "maybes" don't win championships and when you're this close, I'd rather spend the extra money to have the better bets. Until the Twins front-office can focus more on the talent than the bottom-line, I fear we will continue to be stuck where they're at, decent, but not championship material.

Phillies the new Miami Heat (Lee the new LeBron)?

Something is bound to go wrong. Not since the early '90s with the Braves have we seen this kind of talent assembled in one starting rotation. In case you've been staying in a remote village for the last week, or for some ridiculous reason my blog is your homepage, Cliff Lee signed with the Phillies overnight and joins Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt, and Cole Hamels in what is bar-none the best starting 4 in all of baseball. Two thoughts: 

a) How ironic is it that the very blueprint the Yankees used for success in the late '90s and early '00s is coming back to bite them now? By that I mean, the Yankees used to suck up top-talent after top-talent in free-agency year after year which helped them, to some degree, win 5 world series championships in the last 14 years. Now, teams like the Red Sox and Phillies have adopted a somewhat similar strategy (especially the Red Sox) in acquiring expensive talent to build winning ballclubs. In this case, one of the teams following that blue-print gobbled up a prize free-agent in a last-minute deal. Fear not Yankee fans, the Yankees will find somebody else, it may cost them a little bit, but this will only serve to make them more aggressive on the market. 

b) I couldn't help but think about the somewhat obvious similarities to LeBron's big Decision and the mass of talent that the Miami Heat now have. There are some huge differences between baseball and basketball which will make it worlds easier for the Phillies to hold this much talent together, but still, the whole "buying a championship" thing...I don't know, it seems pretty lame. I can't help but think a little less of Lee for doing what he decided to do. For one thing, he turned down an opportunity to pitch on the biggest stage in baseball, He fled to the weaker and easier National League, and he went to the team packed with talent where he won't even be considered the best pitcher on the staff. You could give Lee props for doing what he wanted to do in going back to a team that traded him away, you could give him a pat on the back for giving his wife's wishes some consideration, but the main thing that separates Lee from LeBron is that he didn't make a big spectacle of it, he just let his agent do the work and kept out of the spotlight. I like that he didn't make a big deal out of it. The media did that for him. He just let the cards fall and it turns out, he got as good of a deal from the Phillies as he would have anywhere else and he gets to pitch in the much more pitcher-friendly National League. In the words of Ethel Merman, "everything's coming up roses"...for Lee that is.

Nothing's for sure, injuries happen, pitchers break down, offenses can go cold, etc, etc. That being said, if everything works out for the Phillies, you have to think that they'll be strong contenders for the World Series, check out this rotation: 

1.) Roy Halladay - 2 Cy Young Awards, 7 All-Star Appearances, 169 Career Wins
2.) Cliff Lee - 1 Cy Young Award, 2 All-Star Appearances, 102 Career Wins
3.) Roy Oswalt - 5 Top Five Cy Young Finishes, 3 All-Star Appearances, 150 Career Wins
4.) Cole Hamels - 1 All-Star Appearance, 60 Career Wins
5.) Who knows. Blanton?

Cliff Lee has the highest career ERA of any of those 4 pitchers at 3.85, between them they have 3 Cy Youngs, 16 Top-10 Cy Young finishes, 481 wins and 13 All-Star Appearances. Lee is now locked up for 5 years, Cole Hamels will be arbitration eligible starting in 2012, Oswalt is signed through next year and has a mutual option for 2012 and Halladay is signed through 2014. In other words, this isn't just a one-year, one-shot thing, this group will be in Philly for at least the next 2 years and possibly longer than that. Wow.

Hardy Reaction

I've been reading around the Twins blogs and other blogs for the past hour or so soaking up the various opinions on the JJ Hardy trade the Twins executed today with the Baltimore Orioles. Had I any time to write a post earlier today I might have gone by the numbers and tried to make a case one way or the other, but I'm late to the game so I'll skip that and just give straight up opinion.

Back in October I wrote a piece laying out an argument for bringing back Hardy and claiming that he should be the Twins #1 priority to re-sign in the off-season...so much for that. The bottomline for my argument was that a) Hardy is way more valuable when compared to other shortstops and what's available than he looks to be standing alone and b) $7M is not too much to pay for a proven defensive commodity with offensive upside. As Nick Nelson highlighted in his opinion of the trade, the Twins now find themselves with a very unstable and highly risky setup at SS and 2nd, relying heavily on a very average Alexi Casilla and an unproven Tsuyoshi Nishioka (provided the Twins do actually sign him). Granted, they did save, by all accounts, about $3-$4M in salary between what Hardy would have gotten and Harris' salary, but I'm not sure that savings justifies the trade.

The most irritating thing I'm reading through all of this is that this trade would somehow be justified if the Twins turn around and re-sign Carl Pavano. Um...NO, IT WOULDN'T. First of all, re-signing a 35-year old pitcher to a 3-year deal and then saying that it somehow justifies trading away a semi-valuable 28-year-old shortstop is idiotic logic. For another thing, I'm sick of hearing about how resigning Pavano is a good idea. It's not a good idea. The guy has a track record of injury and locking him in till he's 38 is just asking to get screwed. One and a half seasons of decent baseball does not a 3-year contract merit. What the Twins outta do is pursue a trade for an arm that other people aren't talking about...like Fausto Carmona or Wandy Rodriguez.

Twins Geek suggested that this move means the Twins payroll will only go up by 10-15% instead of 25%, I'm just not following the logic there. I think the Orioles offered the Twins those two also-ran minor league pitchers and the Twins front-office said (wisely), "why don't you take this flour-sack-of-a-player Brendan Harris off our hands too, ya know, to make the deal resemble something fair." And the Orioles said, "OK." I don't think it's any indication of the payroll situation, but it does work nicely either way in opening up another couple million to spend on pitchers.

David Golebiewski from FanGraphs said it best, "I’d be shocked if Casilla comes anywhere close to Hardy’s production level in 2011. Should Casilla get a starting job, it’s possible that he’s a win-and-a-half to two win downgrade at the position." That's a best-case scenario, and if either Casilla or Nishioka gets hurt, you're looking at the likes of Trevor Plouffe in the starting lineup and frankly, that's scary.

Here's to hoping a) Justin Morneau returns next season and resembles his old self, b) Kubel has a year that more closely resembles 2009, and c) the Twins don't have any injuries to their 2nd basemen or Shortstop. That's a lot to hope for.

Top 10 Signs You May Have Overpaid a Free-Agent...

10.) When people talk about the deal they say things like, "hey, if you can get the money!"

9.) The player (and agent) sign right away when you make the offer.

8.) Your deal single-handedly changes the free-agent pay scales.

7.) The player you just let walk was better but was paid less by his new team.

6.) People wonder if you are high on something and ask where they can get stuff as good as you have.

5.) Other free-agents who weren't interested in your team before suddenly start calling you.

4.) Somebody puts a whoopie cushion on your chair at the Winter Meetings.

3.) When asked to comment on the player, your GM says, ""I've been a fan of his lineage and his family," instead of mentioning anything about his on-field skills. [story]


2.) To those close to him, Scott Boras refers to your organization as his "piggybank."

1.) Jon Heyman tweets about how much he likes the deal.

Random Baseball Thoughts

I took a nice long break from baseball and to be honest, I didn't miss much. I've kept up with the other baseball blogs and sites out there in my absence and people have resorted to writing about some pretty off-the-wall stuff in the absence of real news. HardballTalk is going through the worst uniforms of all time, Gleeman is onto another Top 40 List (which I enjoy, but he only does it during the off-season), and FanGraphs is writing articles about Eric Hinske and Jose Lopez. So here's my take on some of the more interesting happenings over the past two weeks.

I want to start off with Derek Jeter. It seems to me that up until the couple of days, the Yankees' organization have handled the situation poorly. There's been too much talking to the media and the whole, "go and try to find a better deal" thing was a bit ridiculous. That said, I feel like $45M over 3 years is WAY more than Jeter is worth, even despite his status as a Yankee Legend. For a team with seemingly unlimited payroll, I know it doesn't make that much of a difference to them what they pay Jeter, but if I'm Jeter, I'm grateful that I'm getting that much and I'm saying, "yes sir, thank you sir." It's not that simple, I understand that, but I can't help but feel off-put by the situation; it seems like yet another example of a greedy athlete. I don't understand the argument that the Yankees "need" to keep Jeter, it seems to me like that would go against their desire to have the best team possible,...not that Jeter hurts them much, but still, I don't get that argument.

The White Sox are scaring me. First they pick up Adam Dunn which was predictable considering the hard-on Kenny Williams has had for him dating back to the trading deadline last year. But then they re-sign Pierzynski and let Jenks go and now they're talking about re-signing Konerko as well. First of all, Dunn adds some serious left-handed power and about as consistent a bat as you can find out there. If they bring back Pauly, you will see Konerko at first and Dunn in the DH spot with the occasional flip-flop here and there to give Konerko some rest. Dunn will be a excellent fit for them at the plate and U.S. Cellular is a hitters park which Dunn will thrive on. Then you think about their potential rotation with Danks, Floyd, Jackson, Peavy, and Buehrle at their disposal. The back-end of their bullpen will probably be Chris Sale setting up Matt Thornton which is quite fearsome. You put all of that together and you are looking at a pretty solid team top to bottom with power, some speed, good pitching and solid bullpen. Anyway you look at, the White Sox look to be contenders next year, no doubt about it.

I was pretty sad to hear about the passing of Ron Santo. My wife is a HUGE Cubs fan and it hit her particularly hard. Santo was as much a Cubs Legend as Billy Williams, Fergie Jenkins or any of the other Cubs Legends was and despite a wide variety of physical ailments, Santo kept with the Cubs and was still doing games for WGN even this past season. The thing I'll always remember about Ron Santo is when listening to Cubs games on the radio, you felt like he was a fan sitting right next to you in the stands. He was always right there was a "YEAH!!!" when something good happened and with a "GALL-LEE!" when something didn't go the Cubs way. Ron Santo was as loved as Harry Carey and I expect the Cubs organization will do something very nice to celebrate his life in the near future. Maybe now he'll finally get a well-deserved nod into the Hall of Fame.

The Cliff Lee speculation has gotten wildly out of control. Now it comes out today that Nolan Ryan thinks it will take awhile. Does anybody really know? Let's just wait and see, enough of the speculation already.

The Twins made a curious move by winning the negotiation bid on Tsuyoshi Nishioka. It's a mistake in my mind, but I guess if doesn't work out it won't cost them anything. It makes me think that their budget is not as tight as many have made it seem. I like that they offered arbitration to JJ Hardy and I really hope things don't work out with Nishioka and we have Hardy as the starting SS come next season. I also hope the Twins don't bring back Jim Thome, though I think I may be alone in that opinion. I hope the Twins make a little bigger splash than simply fighting to bring back the old band, but my hopes are not that high.

Who is Tsuyoshi Nishioka?

Oh man, I can just imagine Gordo and Gladden trying to pronounce this guy's name...or Blyleven. Anyway, I saw this little tidbit this morning and thought to myself, "what? who is this guy?" So I did a little digging:

*Source






I wouldn't have the slightest clue how success in the Japanese professional baseball league translates to the U.S. Major Leagues, so it's difficult to draw conclusions from this stat sheet, but I suppose there are a couple of things we can note. 


a) He's speedy. It's concerning that since swiping 41 bags as a 20-year-old, he hasn't really come close since, but in 144 games last season he stole 22 bases which is decent.
b) He gets on base. They don't give his strikeout and walk numbers here, but a .364 OBP is pretty good and last season, his best year in professional baseball, he put up Mauer type numbers with a .423 OBP. He'd likely made a decent lead-off hitter in the Majors. I did find some more numbers here and it looks like Nishioka has a good eye, drawing walks at a good rate compared to strikeouts.
c) He's injury-prone. He's never missed a majority of a season -- he's managed to at least play 115 games in every season since becoming a full-time player -- but he's missed time in almost every season of his career for various things (wrist, knee, head, hammy, etc).

Christensen admittedly labeled the Twins chances of landing Nishioka as "slim," and Nishioka himself has said that he prefers the West Coast. I have to wonder why the Twins are even bothering. For one, they have to pay just to negotiate with Nishioka, and if you add the negotiating fee to the cost of signing him, I don't really see how you're getting that much more value than just bringing Hardy back on via arbitration. Nishioka gives you a bit more middle-infield speed, but I can't imagine he is much better than Hardy fielding-wise and it's yet to be seen how much better he would be at the plate since there's no guarantee he would be able to duplicate his Japanese success in the Majors.

I've noticed that between Iwakuma and now Nishioka, the Twins seem to have developed a sudden fascination with Japanese players. I'm not sure what the reason for this is, most of the players that have come over from Japan have not done very well (notable exceptions include Ichiro, Hideo Nomo for a few years, Matsuzaka perhaps, and a small handful of others). I guess we'll see what happens, should know by next week.