Player Profile: Adam Wainwright

We've done quite a bit of Twins related stuff lately so I thought I'd branch out a little and take a look at a player who is, once again, quietly putting together a fantastic season so far.

Adam Wainwright was drafted by the Braves in the 1st round (29th pick) of the 2000 draft out of high school and was traded to the Cardinals for Eli Marrero and J.D. Drew in 2003. Wainwright wasn't all that spectacular as a minor-leaguer compiling a 49-41 record in 138 minor league starts with a 3.78 ERA and 1.257 WHIP. Those aren't terrible numbers, but I would have expected to see something better than that considering how well he has performed in the Majors. Wainwright broke into the majors with the Cardinals in 2006 and spent a year as a reliever before becoming a full time starter in 2007.

In 2007, Wainwright started 32 games for the Cards going 14-12, pitching over 200 innings, but had an underwhelming 1.396 WHIP and paltry 6.1 K/9 rate. In 2008, he was going along quite well until a thumb injury caused him to miss 2 1/2 months of the season. Though his K/9 rate that year was still only around 6.2, he cut down on the number of walks he was giving up and reduced his WHIP to 1.182 in 132+ innings.

This past year Wainwright put it all together, posting a 19-8 record and finishing 3rd in the Cy Young voting. In 233 innings he had a 2.63ERA, a 1.21 WHIP and 212Ks. This year he is off to an equally good start and at 28 years old, looks like he could be an elite starter for the next several years if he can remain healthy. What makes him so effective you ask?

Taking a look at PitchFX on Wainwright's start last night in which he struck out 12 while allowing 1ER on 4H and 1BB, we see that despite his inability to induce groundballs at his normal rate, he was able to throw most of his pitches for strikes and when a guy with a 5-pitch arsenal is doing that, he going to miss a lot of bats, as evidenced by the 12 strikeouts.

When talking about Wainwright, I would be remiss if I didn't mention his consistency as a pitcher and so far this year, he's started 10 games and had 9 quality starts. Last year, 25 of his 34 starts qualified as quality starts, 2nd behind only Cy Young winner Tim Lincecum (26). He almost always keep the Cardinals in the games he starts and for a manager, that has to be reassuring.

Keep your eye out for Wainwright, he certainly has had an interesting major league career so far and this season looks to be a continuation of the dominance and potential he displayed last year.

**All stats from Baseball-Reference.com unless linked elsewhere.

Someone to Watch For: Jaime Garcia

I was having a little fun on FanGraphs this morning and took a gander at pitchers with the highest GB% (ground-ball percentage). At the very top of the list, with quite a bit of separation, is young Cardinals lefty Jaime Garcia. Don't be surprised if that's a foreign name because Garcia broke into the Majors in late-2008 at age 21, only to have Tommy John surgery after only 10 appearances. He missed all of 2009 and now, a year and a half later, has joined the Cardinals rotation and has been pitching well so far this season.

A 70% ground-ball percentage is unsustainable, but what it also worth nothing is that in 19 innings, Garcia has not given up a HR. Garcia's HR/9 ratio in the minors was 0.6, which if translated into the majors would be good for a top-10 slot in that category (Lincecum is #1 at .49). I'm not saying that Garcia projects to be a lights out pitcher like fellow battery-mates Adam Wainwright and Chris Carpenter, but he certainly looks like a solid middle-of-the-rotation guy. In 69 MiL starts, he compiled a 3.49ERA/1.25WHIP with 369Ks in 402IP. His 3.00 BB/9 isn't such a hot stat, but you have to love his GB/FB ratio, good for getting double-plays when you do have men on base.

In the course of my research on Garcia, I came across this little dandy of an article examining Garcia's mechanics, I definitely think it's worth checking out and I would also love to know if he's changed that delivery at all post Tommy John surgery. Anyway, here's the video linked in the article.

2010 Year in Preview: NL Central Wrapup

Well, I just completed a writeup of the NL Central 2010 Year in Preview, clicked “Publish” and watched it disappear.  How frustrating.  Of course, no reader cares.  They just want to see the writeup.  I don’t blame you.  Here is a reconstituted, recreated, better-than-ever 2010 Year In Preview: NL Central.

Top Prospect: Aroldis Chapman.  We've covered him in detail time and again, most recently in my 2010 Year In Preview: Cincinnati Reds.  Chapman has already thrown a bullpen in the Reds Spring Training camp, and the video I saw looked exactly the same as the other video I’ve seen of him throwing.  His mechanics are still very raw, but apparently he was hitting 97 mph.  I don’t know if that’s true, but it’s worth passing along.  Three questions about Aroldis in 2010: 

1.  Where will he start the year? My money is on Double A. I don’t think there’s any chance that he starts higher than that.  He needs time to mature and work on his secondary offerings. 

2. When will Cincinnati call him up?  Since the Reds signed Chapman to a ML deal, I don’t believe there is any financial incentive towards keeping him in the Minors and limit his service time.  Thus, you have to think that the Reds will call him up when he is ready, and there is a need for him on the Major League Roster.  Given what the back end of their rotation looks like, I’m going to wager a very aggressive guess and say July 1^st. 

3. What will be the round that some idiot in your fantasy baseball league (over)drafts Chapman this year?  Depends on your league.  If you are in a pitching-heavy keeper league, then you might see Chapman go early.  If you’re in a standard, non-keeper league, then you might not see him drafted at all.  My league is more pitching-heavy, and it is a keeper league, so I’m expecting some idiot, perhaps AK, to draft Chapman in the 15th round.  Really looking forward to it. 

Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA Projected Standings

It's almost embarassing to reference PECOTA at this point.  Between the time that I write this and the time that you read this, PECOTA will have predicted the Yankees to win the division, changed it to the Red Sox, switched it to the Rays, then back to the Red Sox, then projected a three-way tie between the three.  Get it together, PECOTA!

St. Louis Cardinals - 89-73. 744 RS, 670 RA. .269/.343/.426. 

Chicago Cubs - 80-82. 734 RS, 746 RA. .269/.343/.423.

Cincinnati Reds - 77-85. 713 RS, 753 RA. .259/.334/.421

Houston Astros - 77-85. 712 RS, 755 RA. .269/.332/.418

Milwaukee Brewers - 77-85. 765 RS, 803 RA. .264/.339/.443

Pittsburgh Pirates - 72-90. 693 RS, 800 RA. .259/.330/.411. 

PECOTA likes the Cards to win the division in 2010 by virtue of the second-best offense and the best pitching/defense in the division. I have no problem with that, but if Wainwright or Carpenter get hurt, then their ability to hold down the RA is going to be greatly compromised.  

Interestingly, PECOTA sees the Cards as being the only team with an above-.500 record.  In second place we see the Cubs.  The projection is decidedly mediocre.  Only three games back from the Cubs there is a three-way tie between Cincy, Houston and the Brewers.  PECOTA sees Cincy and Houston as almost identical.  There are obvious similarities between the Reds and the Astros, in that their offenses are weak and are supported by a few standout players, and that their pitching staffs both have consistent veterans and high-upside guys, but I'll take the Reds over the Astros in 2010 any day.  I think the upside is far greater. The Brewers show that there's more than one way to skin a cat, and PECOTA likes them to bash their way to victory in 2010.  Unfortunately, their pitching after Gallardo and Wolf looks to be a decided liability. 

In last place, we see the Pirates.  Poor Pittsburgh.  One day your prince will come. 

As we complete our division previews, I want to look back and see which teams have the best and worst ranked offenses and pitching staffs.  We've completed the NL Central and the AL West. You may notice that some of the RS and RA are different from what I listed in the AL West Preview. This is because PECOTA has adjusted itself from the time I published the Preview.  I will always be using the most recent iteration. 

The BESTS

Best Offense: Texas Rangers, 840 RS. 2nd: Angels, 780. 3rd: Brewers, 765. 

The Rangers are looking to have an absolutely monster offense, going .280/.351/.468.  That's a team OPS of over .800.  I'm not surprised to see the Brewers on this list, but I am very surprised to see the Angels projected to score so many runs.  

Best Pitching/Defense: St. Louis Cardinals, 670 RA. 2nd: Seattle, 713. 3rd: Oakland, 736. 

It's an odd group.  Cardinals' run prevention ability comes primarily from their great pitching, headed by Wainwright and Carpenter.  Seattle's run prevention will come from a great 1-2 pitching punch in Felix and Lee, and also in spectacular defense.  Oakland doesn't have a 1-2 punch like either St. Louis or Seattle, and they don't have good defense either.  But they do have a bevy of above-average pitchers, and this depth may be the key to a good season RA total. 

The WORSTS

Worst Offense: Pittsburgh, 693 RS.  2nd: Houston, 712. 3rd: Cincy, 713. 

I'm a little surprised that neither Oakland nor Seattle made this list, but it could be the value of the DH. 

Worst Pitching: LA Angels, 835 RA (wow!). 2nd: Brewers, 800.  3rd: Pirates, 800.  

I am shocked, but happy, to see that the Angels have such an astronomically high RA.  When I did the 2010 Year in Preview, they were projected to allow 775 runs.  I have no idea what caused the increase, but I'll take it! 

In Which AK and (sic) Make Foolhardy, Ridiculous and Sure-To-Be-Wrong Predictions

AK, you have the floor...

St. Louis Cardinals (90-72) - With a healthy Wainwright/Carpenter duo coming back and the likes of Holliday and Pujols in the lineup, it's hard to bet against the Cards. If one of them were to get hurt, it would certainly change the outlook, but this is a pretty weak division and the Cardinals should have no problems wrapping this up early.

Chicago Cubs (83-79) - The only reason I am putting the Cubs second is because I didn't know who to choose between the Cubs, Brewers and Astros. The Cubs could contend if Ted Lilly doesn't miss too much time and pitches well upon return, but as it stands, their #1 and #2 is Zambrano and Dempster and that's just not going to cut it. Plus, on the field, this team is starting to look old.

Milwaukee Brewers (81-81) - As I wrote in my analysis of the Brewers, the starting rotation is brutal. You have Gallardo and then 4 back-end starters. The only thing that can save this team is offense and I fear that they will not have enough. In two years I see Fielder gone and Braun demanding a trade...

Houston Astros (80-82) - I could be way off about the Astros, Oswalt is Oswalt, Wandy Rodriguez could return to early-2009 form and Brett Myers is in a new place with reason to impress. The offense will be decent and if the pitching follows, the Astros will be better than I am projecting them at.

Cincinnati Reds (76-86) - As (sic) pointed out to me, I've got no love for the Reds. There are too many 'ifs' here for me, if everything goes right they're contenders, but if not, no dice and, thankfully for Reds fans, they'll probably get a new manager out of it.

Pittsburgh Pirates (70-92) - A bunch of moves, all smoke, this team will likely be out of it by the all-star break, if not sooner.

(sic)'s note: I'm willing to wait a year on the Reds breaking out if it means no more Dusty.  

I hate you Dusty. 

My turn: 

St. Louis Cardinals - 86-76

Cincinnati Reds - 80-82

Milwaukee Brewers - 80-82

Chicago Cubs - 78-84

Houston Astros - 75-87

Pittsburgh Pirates - 69-93

True to form, I like the Reds as the 2010 NL Central sleeper.  I don't think they'll have enough to win the Wild Card, unfortunately, but they ought to set themselves up nicely for a run in 2011 when Chapman and Volquez are ready to go full season. I'm slightly more optimistic on the Brewers than PECOTA, simply on the strength of their offense.  Cubs fans, I think this is the year the team falls off a cliff.  It is the worst team in several years, and I think this losing season will usher in three to four years of playoff-less baseball on the North Side.  Sorry.  

My final thought concerns the Cardinals. I like St. Louis to win the war of attrition this year in the NL Central.  It's no surprise, really.  They have the best team, and they should win easily.  The only thing that concerns me is the health of Carpenter and Wainwright.  Since we've been making blind, bold predictions all offseason, I'll go out on a limb and say that one of them will spend significant time on the DL this year, and I think it will be Wainwright. 

Will this be the year that Wainwright is killed on the mound in a horrific pitching mechanics accident?  Probably not, no.  BUT MAYBE. If that doesn't happen, look for him to spend some time on the shelf with shoulder tendinitis.  

That's all for the NL Central.  Be sure to bookmark this so you can come back and taunt us in the comments when the Pirates win it all.  

2010 Year in Preview: St. Louis Cardinals

So I've been doing a pretty terrible job of posting here as of late, but I'm back. Here goes...

The Cardinals of the past decade are no strangers to winning; they’ve captured the NL Central crown 7 out of the past 10 years (with the Cubs taking the other three), although not always by the most impressive of margins (see: their World Series season of 2006, where they snuck into the playoffs at 83-77 in a pretty weak division, although as a Twins fan, can I really criticize that?). The 2009 squad kept that tradition alive, taking another division crown. Featuring a lineup highlighted by the best hitter in baseball and a solid rotation led by two of last year's top Cy Young contenders, are there enough other pieces in place to continue the run of dominance? My guess is yes in the short term, but more as a result of the rest of the division either getting worse or staying put (any Cubs fans out there?) rather than significant improvement on the part of St. Louis. But hey, if it ain’t broke, why fix it?


2009 Season: 91-71; NL Central division champions, swept in NLDS by Los Angeles

Key Departures:
Joel Pineiro (RHP) – I won’t spend a whole lot of time looking at Pineiro here as we already looked at him as an addition to the Angels’ rotation, but he definitely posted career numbers last season in what was a career season for Cards’ pitchers in general. If Carpenter and Wainwright stay healthy and Pineiro regresses even slightly toward his career averages (which he almost certainly will), they shouldn’t miss him all that much, although he is a solid back-of-the-rotation starter.

Todd Wellemeyer (RHP) – Wellemeyer got the most starts from the fifth rotation spot last season, posting a 5.31 FIP. Not a huge loss.

Mark DeRosa, Troy Glaus, Rick Ankiel (anywhere on the field/3B/OF) – As I’m trying to keep this from rambling on forever, I’ll look at this trio of veterans as a bloc. DeRosa still has some value left with the bat and can play anywhere, but wasn’t a priority for the Cardinals. Along with the loss of Glaus and Ankiel, this is going to leave open spots at 3B and in the outfield.


Key Additions:

Matt Holliday (LF) – So yeah, this isn’t a true addition as Holliday played nearly half a season with the Cards last year, but signing a 7 year, $120 million extension should warrant some discussion here. Having Holliday batting cleanup behind Pujols gives St. Louis perhaps the most fearsome 3-4 combination in the NL, and oddly enough, despite his gaffe in Game 3 of the 2009 NLDS that essentially ended the Cards’ season, he’s not as terrible in the field as you might think, having posted a 6.0 UZR/150 last year. All in all, you can’t fault them for locking up Holliday, and in terms of projected contract value, even if they didn’t get a steal it shouldn’t come back to bite them either.

Brad Penny (RHP) – Signed as a free agent from the Giants for $7 million plus incentives. Although not a horrendous over-payment, this one was a bit of a head-scratcher as Penny was far from stellar with both the Red Sox and the Giants last year. He suffered a bit from a high BABIP and his FIP was decent, in the mid 4’s. He also pitched 173 innings, and with some injury risk in both Chris Carpenter and Kyle Lohse, the Cardinals are certainly hoping Penny eats some innings in the fourth rotation slot.

Rich Hill (LHP) – Hill signed a minor-league deal and will likely compete for the fifth starter position in an otherwise all right-handed rotation. He looked pretty brutal in 13 starts with the Orioles last year as evidenced by his 7.80 ERA (FIP wasn’t quite that bad, but still not good). Can pitching coach Dave Duncan work his magic with Hill? He might be a player to watch in spring training.


Talent En Route:
The Cardinals jettisoned many of their top prospects to get Holliday and DeRosa last year, and there likely aren’t a lot of impact players lurking in the farm system that could be called up in the next few years. However, there are a few players that could see playing time in 2010.

David Freese (3B) – Although only ranked the Cardinals fifth-best prospect by Baseball America, I’ll start with Freese as he has potentially the best chance of starting this season, given the departures of DeRosa and Glaus. Freese had a pretty nice year with the bat last year between Rookie, AA, and AAA, with a .313/.380/.551 line and 12 HR in 64 games, and should provide adequate defense, but I wouldn’t expect him to be a game-changer at the major league level.

Jamie Garcia (LHP) – Garcia should compete with Hill for the fifth starter job. He posted only 38 innings last year after coming back from Tommy John surgery, and features a sinking fastball that has induced grounders at around a 60% rate during his MiL career (interestingly, the only player in MLB last season with that high of a GB rate was Pineiro).


2011 Free Agency and Salary Outlook:
As St. Louis essentially has its core players locked up through 2011 and has no one eligible for free agency (save for Denys Reyes) after this season, the real free-agent question looming is whether or not they'll be able to retain Pujols beyond the 2011 season (assuming they exercise Pujols' no-brainer 2011 option of $16MM). Although not a perfect analogy, I would liken this to the situation the Twins find themselves in with Joe Mauer - neither Minnesota or St. Louis are large market teams, but they're potentially looking at inking one of, if not the biggest, contracts in baseball history with one of the game's premier hitters. Both deals would come at the expense of retaining other expensive players, and for the Cardinals that could be a real concern given that they would, excluding Pujols, already have options of $15MM for Carpenter, $10MM for Wainwright, and $7MM for catcher Yadier Molina, plus Holliday's and Kyle Lohse's contracts at $17MM and $12MM, respectively. ($62MM for only 5 players). Chances are good that they would feel the need to buy out Carpenter's option if they re-sign Pujols, who could command up to $30MM annually. Bottom line is that they will likely find a way to get a Pujols deal done, which means they're going to have to find some cheap, homegrown talent to fill in those other roster spots. Given the current state of their farm system, it's not looking like there's a lot of help there at the moment. Signing Holliday is perhaps a sign that they want to stay competitive long-term, but they are likely going to have to 1) find a way to replenish their stock of prospects and 2) hope that vaunted former prospects such as Colby Rasmus step up to fill the space around the sluggers in the middle of the order.


The Future of the Cardinals:
Like I stated before, while a solid team, the Cardinals' run of division dominance has been partly due to the lack of a consistent challenger. Through the next few years, they will feature one of the stronger top-to-bottom rotations in the NL, but it will be difficult to keep that rotation intact if they sign Pujols to a long-term deal. The tandem of Pujols and Holliday is indeed fearsome, but others have raised the issue that, contrary to conventional wisdom, it has almost become more important to protect your big hitter by constantly having runners on base in front of him, rather than having another slugger behind him. Particularly evident in the playoffs last year, Skip Schumaker and Rasmus weren't really ideal at doing this (Rasmus sported an OBP around .320 in the 2 hole, and as a Twins fan, I am well acquainted with this level of production at that particular lineup spot). They should have a few more years left to contend with a team similar to the one they have now, but their success beyond that will depend on how the front office deals with a pending salary crunch.



Sticking in St. Louis?

Peep This Prospect: Brett Wallace

In honor of A-Rod's return to the Yankee lineup, I thought I would find a member of the next wave of Major League 3rd basemen, and we'll start with Brett Wallace who is currently playing for Double-A Springfield in the St. Louis Cardinals organization. Wallace was the 9th pick in the 1st round of the 2008 MLB Draft and has so far been raking through A-ball and AA-ball.

	Team	League	BA	GP	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	OPS
	Quad Cities (A)	MWL	.327	41	153	28	50	8	1	5	25	17	32	0	0	.418	.490	.908
	Springfield (AA)	TXL	.367	13	49	13	18	5	0	3	11	2	7	0	0	.456	.653	1.109
	Totals		.337	54	202	41	68	13	1	8	36	19	39	0	0	.427	.530	.957

Source

As you can see, Wallace is a pure hitter with decent power and a so-so eye. In college he played for Arizona State where he won the Pac-10 Triple Crown twice in three seasons. Oh yeah, his college career .398 average wasn't bad either. The downside to Wallace is his defense which is somewhat suspect and might be due, in some part, to his size. As ESPN puts it, "he isn't "fat," just oddly proportioned, with huge, muscular legs that make him look less athletic than he actually is."

Though Wallace has little chance of making the Cardinals roster this year, he could be an impact player down the road, especially since Troy Glaus looks to be on his last legs for the cardinals (currently on the DL after surgery) and the Cardinals don't have any other 3rd basemen with anywhere near the potential that Wallace has. We'll keep our eye on him. In his game last night, Wallace went 3 for 5 with no RBI or Rs. So far on the young season he's batting .283 with 5 HRs and 16RBI in 25 games.