The Twins Front Office: More of the Same

I'll admit, when it comes to the White Sox, I have nothing good to say. I will never have anything good to say. I was living in the Chicago area on October 26th, 2005 and it was one of the most depressing days of my life. Watching them land both David Robertson and Jeff Samardzija in the past few days has brought my blood to a near boil when it comes to the Twins. Look, I get it, the Twins aren't going to be a contender this coming season, but there are moves that they could be making in free-agency NOW that would bring a contender back to Minnesota sooner rather than later. Instead, they are essentially sitting on the sidelines and waiting/hoping that their current crop of young talent will put it all together in 2016 and beyond. They are wasting opportunities that are out there now.

Let's look at some of the recent free-agent signings and trades that have happened.

Jeff Samardzija (SP)
The White Sox received Samardzija from the Oakland As for Marcus Semien (SS), Chris Bassitt (potential SP or long reliever) and a PTBNL. Both Semien and Bassitt are pretty decent prospects and the White Sox will only control Samardzija for one year, but still - that is relatively little to give up for a #2 starter like Samardzija. There is this perception that top-flight starters are expensive, but this is a case where I feel the White Sox didn't have to give up much to get one. Samardzija gives the White Sox a potent 1-2-3 in their rotation (along with Chris Sale and Jose Quintana) and along with the acquisition of David Robertson (FA RP), makes them look a whole lot better on paper than they did just a few weeks ago. I think they overpaid for Robertson (4-yrs, $46M) but that's not the point. The point is that the White Sox made themselves relevant and didn't have to make a bunch of moves to do so.

Brandon Moss (OF and 1B)
The Indians traded a no-name Double-A infielder (Joe Wendle) and landed Moss, who has the chance to be a really nice fit with the Indians. The best thing for both parties is probably that it gets him out of Oakland and the Oakland Coliseum, where he was terrible at the plate. In 70 games at Oakland last year, his triple-slash was .197/.299/.404 and in 77 games on the road it was .265/.364/.467. This is another example of a team that spent very little to get something decent in return. Moss is under team control until 2017 and will add potency to an offense that is already trending up. As for the Twins - Moss doesn't really address any of their needs as the Twins are already log-jammed at 1B and in the Outfield.

Josh Donaldson (3B)
Donaldson was traded from the Oakland As to the Blue Jays for Brett Lawrie, Kendall Graveman and Sean Nolin. This trade doesn't make a whole lot of sense, but there had been some mention of Donaldson not seeing eye-to-eye with Billy Beane so maybe there is more to this story. Donaldson has been one of the top 3rd basemen in baseball over the last two seasons whereas as Brett Lawie has been oft-injured and inconsistent so far in his career. Both players have 4-years of team control left and Billy Beane is a well-respected GM, so we'll give the benefit of the doubt to him for making this move. From the Twins standpoint, again, this wouldn't have made much sense for them. If you believe Miguel Sano is your future at 3B and that Sano is close to assuming that role, then there is no need for a guy like Donaldson. And besides, that's a lot to give up in a trade, even for a guy like Donaldson.

Yasmany Tomas (OF, possibly 3B)
This Cuban outfielder received a lot of hype prior to his signing and has been compared to Jose Abreu, last year's ROY in the American League. A lot of teams were interested in Tomas, but it was the Diamondbacks that ultimately won out, landing Tomas on a 6-year, $68.5MM deal. This one, like the Samardzija deal, really sticks in my craw. To me, landing this guy would have been a great move for the Twins. Granted, it would further muddle their outfield situation, but if they had taken the $10.5MM they are going to pay Hunter this season and instead, spent that money on Tomas, I would feel a whole lot better. Tomas has great potential and if he's anything like Abreu, that contract is going to be a STEAL. In my mind, the International market is a great place for the Twins. Unfortunately they were burned in their most public International move when they signed Nishioka and he turned out to be an epic bust. I don't know if they are just scared to sign International players or what, but the recent crop of International players has been pretty impressive with the likes of Abreu, Iwakuma, Cespedes, Puig, and Darvish (to name a few). Just imagine an outfield of Buxton, Tomas and Arcia for the next 5+ seasons...sounds pretty good doesn't it?

Andrew Miller (RP)
Miller signed with the Yankees as a free-agent on a 4-year, $36MM contract. I don't have much commentary on this trade. If there is one thing that Twins FO has been competent at in recent years, it is signing relievers. The Twins don't need a closer and 4-year contracts for relievers seem like a bad idea to me. Miller wasn't going to sign for less than a 4-year deal and it was reported that he had a 4-year, $40MM offer from the Astros in the case that the Yankees decided to pass.

Nick Markakis (OF)
Markakis signed a 4-year, $44MM deal with the Atlanta Braves. Again, not much commentary here. Markakis has been up and down over the past few years and while he seems to have some value in the field (Gold Glove winner in 2014), his hitting has been inconsistent and signing him wouldn't have necessarily been that much of an upgrade in the outfield for the Twins. With that being said, spending that $10.5MM on the 31-year-old Markakis could have made a lot more sense than spending it on Hunter. I have to keep reminding myself that Hunter is just a one-year thing.

**Markakis' battery-mate Nelson Cruz also signed a 4-year deal this off-season with the Mariners for $57MM. The same comments that I have about Markakis apply to that deal. Baltimore got one heck of a season out of Cruz for only $8MM.

Jason Heyward (OF) / Shelby Miller (SP)
This was definitely the blockbuster trade of the off-season so far. As much as I would love for the Twins to get either of these players...I don't think the Twins would have had anything to offer either the Braves or the Cardinals that would have come close to the likes of Heyward and Miller. The deal was great for the Braves in the sense that Miller is under team control until 2018. For the Cards, they get an excellent outfielder for at least this next season and could be fixing to sign Heyward to a long-term deal. They also received Jordan Walden from the Braves who is a pretty good set-up man.


Those are just a handful of the recent trades and signings in baseball. There had been a boatload of other far less sexy acquisitions. The only two that really bother me as a Twins fan are the Samardzija and Tomas deals. There are still a number of intriguing free-agents that the Twins could potentially be in on including: Brandon Beachy, Ervin Santana, Justin Masterson (probably not), Brett Anderson, Luke Gregorson, Josh Johnson, Francisco Liriano, Jed Lowrie, Brandon McCarthy, Jake Peavy, Johan Santana (?), Max Scherzer, Ryan Vogelson, Edison Volquez, and Rickie Weeks. Hey - Delmon Young is still available too!

Josh Willingham: What's Not to Like?

Depending on who you trust on Twitter, the Twins may or may not have agreed, in principle, to a deal with outfielder/DH free-agent Josh Willingham. Jerry Crasnick reported earlier this evening that a deal had been reached pending a physical - a report which was contradicted by Rhett Bollinger later in the evening saying that the two sides were close, but that they hadn't yet officially reached a deal...either way, I'm willing to bet that Willingham will become a Twin here within the next 12-24 hours so I thought I'd chime in. On an unrelated note, please forgive my scant postings over the last couple of weeks. I started a new job on Dec. 2nd and, well, it's been non-stop busy-ness since with no end in sight.

There's really not much to dislike about this deal from an outsiders perspective. Michael Cuddyer, whom Willingham is "replacing", is 32-years old, so is Willingham. Their hitting profiles are very similar in that they are both right-handed hitters with some power and good on-base percentages. In watching Cuddyer go to another team, the Twins get two draft picks in return and for a farm system that is somewhat depleted, the picks could not be coming at a better time. In addition, Willingham is likely to save the Twins a little bit of money. All of these things are positive. The only negative, in my opinion, is that you lose a guy in Cuddyer who has been a scrapper and a gamer for the last few seasons, who was clearly a good clubhouse guy and who was somewhat of a fan favorite. That said, none of those are reasons to keep a guy around.

Josh Willingham really didn't start to see regular big-league action until 2006 (age 27) but has been a pretty consistent big-league performer since, compiling a .262/.361/.475 triple-slash in 2,707 big-league at-bats. Since the beginning of the '06 season he has hit 131 homeruns (avg ~ 21/yr) and 155 doubles (avg ~ 26). Defense is where Willingham struggles a bit and where Cuddyer certainly has the upper hand when comparing the two players. Willingham will almost certainly be in left-field for the Twins - a position has spent the majority of his big-league career playing. He also gained some experience as a DH last year with Oakland so if the Twins get him, I would expect we'll see him used in that role as well from time to time.

I really hope the Twins do get Willingham. I was never bitten by the Cuddyer-bug, I respect him as a player and a hard-worker, but I think that the Twins benefit more in the long-run by letting him go. Willingham doesn't have quite the versatility that Cuddyer has defensively, but for a little less coin I'm willing to make the swap.

What DO the Twins Have?

With the baseball winter meetings coming up in a week or so - the baseball hot-stove fires are about to be stoked into a blazing inferno here in the next 1-2 weeks. Up to this point I've done my fair share of speculating about what the Twins will do and in looking around other Twins blogs, you'll find no shortage of others who tried their hand at the same thing. With this piece, I want to take a different tact...I want to take a look at the pieces the Twins have right now that we can be assured of seeing on Opening Day (barring pre-season injury of course). All of us have a pretty good idea of what the holes on this team are - but laying out what the team has right now may make it crystal clear where the team should start in addressing their weaknesses.


Infield (arbitration eligibles in red, backups in parentheses):

C - Joe Mauer (Ryan Doumit/Drew Butera)
1B - Justin Morneau
2B - OPEN (Alexi Casilla)
SS - Jamey Carroll (Tsuyoshi Nishioka)
3B - Danny Valencia
DH - Ryan Doumit/ ?

This infield situation is complicated by unknowns. In a perfect world, the Twins would bring in a Kelly Johnson or a Aaron Hill type to fill the hole at 2nd base and your infield would be set with Morneau & Valencia on the corners with Carroll and Johnson/Hill up the middle. Reality is far from that though as the Twins have still not addressed second base and only God knows what Justin Morneau's availability will be come Opening Day.


Outfield (arbitration eligibles in red, backups in parentheses):

RF - OPEN
CF - Denard Span (Ben Revere)
LF - Joe Benson? Trevor Plouffe?

To me, the outfield situation is just as dire as the bullpen situation. If the Twins do nothing to address the outfield situation, the Twins will have a couple of guys (Revere and Benson) with less than a full-year of Major League experience as your starting Right and Left fielders. Not only that, Denard Span is coming off a 2nd-half which saw him miss significant time due to a concussion. He has said on Twitter that he's been feeling good lately, but with Morneau's cautionary tale, I don't think there's any counting on Span. I would like to think they'll bring back Jason Kubel, though I view his role as more of a DH if he returns, filling the void left by Jim Thome's departure. Aaron Hicks stands to get a look in Spring Training, but as a 22-year-old who spent all of last year a Fort-Myers (A-ball), I don't know that his chances are all that good. The Twins have announced that they are going to make Trevor Plouffe an outfielder, but even if he makes the transition defensively, I don't know that he has much staying power in the lineup (.697 OPS in 286 PAs last season). In short, the Twins have a lot of outfield question marks and not a lot of answers, though I did discuss a few potential free-agent answers in my last post.

Starting Pitching (arbitration eligibles in red):

#1 Francisco Liriano
#2 Carl Pavano
#3 Scott Baker
#4 Nick Blackburn
#5 Kevin Slowey? Brian Duensing?

Some people have seen a lot of question marks here too, but to me the starting rotation is pretty much set with the only question mark being who the Gardenhire and the Twins will decide to install as their 5th starter. As expected, Duensing's permanent move to the rotation last season exposed him and I wouldn't be surprised if they move him back to into the bullpen and give Slowey his old spot back. Then again, Slowey is (and has been) in the dreaded Gardenhire dog-house for awhile, so there are certainly no guarantees there. I would love to see the Twins go out and grab another starting pitcher, but those tend to be expensive, especially in a market like this year's when there are not many good ones available. As far as help from the farm goes, the Twins have nothing in the Minors that inspires much confidence in terms of starting pitching. There are a couple of arms (Hendriks, Salcedo), but they don't seem close.

Bullpen Pitching (arbitration eligibles in red):

Glen Perkins

Jose Mijares
? Jeff Manship ?
? OPEN
? OPEN

Ok, I take that back about the outfield rivaling the bullpen as the Twins most pressing issue. Holy smokes. The Twins have a bunch of garbage arms they could use including (but certainly not limited to): Alex Burnett, Scott Diamond, Jim Hoey, Jeff Gray, etc. With around $69.5M already committed to next year's payroll, and another $15M or so wrapped up in arbitration eligible players...the Twins have about $15M to spend to fill holes in the infield, outfield and bullpen. It's going to take every cent of that money, in addition to some GM wizardry, to field a competitive Twins team in 2012, but I feel that Terry Ryan is up to the task. Capable bullpen arms don't need to be expensive, and as Aaron Gleeman talked about in his most recent column, the Twins shouldn't feel the need to spend a lot of money on a closer either...a closer doesn't need to be "proven" in order to be dominant.

I think if I were Mr. Ryan, I would focus on the outfield first because useful outfielders are likely to be snapped up a lot more quickly than useful bullpen arms will be. Aside from that, I wouldn't overreact or overpay for marginal talent. The Twins have enough quality pieces (especially if Mauer and Morneau are healthy) that they can afford to have a few duds in the lineup). I would rather see good money spent in the bullpen than money needless thrown at replacement level infielders and outfielders.

Looking to the Outfield

Hats-off to Terry Ryan. In his first couple of weeks back on the job he has already addressed two significant areas of weakness on the ballclub using minimal funds. I could take a few minutes and talk about the Ryan Doumit acquisition, but others have already done a good job of that, particularly Nick Nelson  and Parker Hageman - both of them wrote excellent pieces about Doumit and his fit with the Twins, check out both pieces.

Because Terry Ryan has been so thrifty so far, he has left himself with a good chunk of funding left to fill other holes on the team, particularly in the outfield, starting rotation and bullpen. I want to look to the outfield to see what the Twins options are. I'm operating from the assumptions that the Twins lose either Cuddyer or Kubel, or they lose both of them. I don't see the Twins being able to keep both and I find a situation in which Kubel stays to be much more likely. If the Twins keep either Cuddyer or Kubel they will likely only "need" to add one outfielder to the mix because I'm also assuming that Ben Revere and/or Joe Benson will make the Major League club out of Spring Training. I put "need" in quotes because if they Twins keep Kubel, they could technically get away with not adding an OFer at all, but unless you're willing to make Kubel and Revere full-time outfielders, they're going to have to add someone. Moving along...

**By the way, it has been reported that the new collective bargaining agreement in Major League Baseball does away with compensation for Type-B free agents meaning the teams with Type-Bs will receive nothing if the player signs with another club. I haven't seen any sources confirming that this is set in stone so I'm leaving the designations there for now...just keep in mind that it may be utterly meaningless if it's true that MLB did away with "Type-B" designations.


Jason Kubel (Type-B) - 2011 Salary: $5,250,000
I've talked about Kubel before, particularly about how I think he has unique value. Kubel, like most other Twins' players, was injured for a large portion of the season, missing a total of 63 games. Through the first two months of last season he was pretty much the only bright spot in the lineup posting a .310/.355/.465 line through the end of May. He was looking like his 2009-self until being sidelined for all of June and most of July with a sprained foot. Anyway, we all know the story. Kubel is unique in the sense that he's a left-handed power hitter. Prior to the 2011 season, he had 3-straight 20+ HR seasons and during those three years he had a .821 OPS. His defense isn't great, but sans-Thome, the Twins could really use a competent hitter in the DH spot, a role Kubel would be able to fill quite competently. Kubel has been a consistent performer when healthy and at 29-years-old, extending him a 2-4 year deal makes sense.

Cody Ross (Type-B) - 2011 Salary: $6,300,000
Ross is an intriguing option from a few different angles. First, he can (and has) play all three outfield positions. Most of his playing time has been spent in centerfield, but he's also played appreciable time in right and left. With as many interchangeable parts as the Twins have (a catcher that needs frequent breaks from catching, no established DH, etc), having a versatile outfielder could be a major positive for a club that needs to move players around on a regular basis. In addition to that, Ross has some decent power (career .456 slugging %) from the right-side which is lacking in the current Twins lineup.
Ross has a couple of downsides as well. His ability to get on-base leaves something to be desired (career .323 OBP) and he doesn't really hit for average either. Fielding-wise he's very average though for the Twins, "average" is probably an upgrade, especially in right-field. There's also the fact that in each of the last 5 season, Ross' OPS has dropped...from 1.064 in 66 games in '07, to .730 in 121 games last season. At 30-years-old Ross definitely has something left in the tank, but unless Ross sits out there on the free-agent market for awhile, the price tag will likely be too high to make it worth the risk.

Ryan Ludwick (Type-B) - 2011 Salary: $6,775,000
It's scary when you look at how similar Ryan Ludwick and Cody Ross are offensively. Ross' career triple-slash is .261/.323/.456, Ludwick's career triple-slash is .261/.332/.455. Pluses for Ludwick are slightly better plate-discipline and slightly better defense, but other than that the two have very similar career stories. Ludwick, much like Ross, has even seen a decline over the last 4 seasons. After an All-Star season in '08 which saw him hit 37 HRs and drive in 113, his OPS and overall production have declined in each season since. Given his poor 2011 season, I'm guessing that Ludwick could probably be had for a discount and would definitely be an upgrade defensively - I think he's in line for a bounce-back of sorts.

Brad Hawpe (Outright FA) - 2011 Salary: $2,000,000
The Padres had a $6M option on Hawpe but after a dismal 2011 season, they understandably decided to opt for the $1M buyout making Hawpe an outright free agent. From 2006 to 2009 Hawpe was a very consistent hitter for the Colorado Rockies posting 4-straight 20+ HR seasons and a .902 OPS over that time. Ever since, he's looked nothing like that while splitting time between 3 different ballclubs. Defensively, Hawpe is nothing special at all with a career-.978 fielding% and a career -18.9 UZR/150 -- and my 'nothing special' I mean he's pretty terrible. Hawpe might be worth a flier - but if I were Terry Ryan I wouldn't offer anything more than a one-year "let's see" type deal.

Josh Willingham (Type-A) - 2011 Salary: $6,000,000
It's hard to say how realistic it is that the Twins could land Willingham. For one thing, he's certainly going to be making more than $6M per year with whomever he ends up signing. His OPS has been north of .800 for the past 6 seasons and at 32-years old, he has miles left on the tires. Offensively he's probably the best of the mid-tier options out there and defensively he sits somewhere between Cody Ross and Ryan Ludwick. I would be ecstatic if the Twins went out there and got him, but given their self-reported payroll goals, I find it improbable that he ends up in a Twins uniform. Michael Rand over at the Star Tribune wrote an interesting piece about Willingham and how the Twins fans might be focusing too much on him, can't say I disagree - check it out.

I think we'll continue to see the Twins regularly add pieces as we go through the next couple of months - not all of them are going to be household names, but I would be surprised to see one bigger name in there somewhere - I think it will most likely it will be a starting pitcher or reliever.

I haven't mentioned this in a post before (I don't think), but if you want, follow me on Twitter (@thebatshatters). I try to keep it almost 100% sports and Twins related - unlike some people who choose to share their political views on a regular basis. Also, on this Thanksgiving Week, I want to say a big THANK YOU to all of you who are regular readers of this blog, I really appreciate the time you take to read and comment.

Crazy Thoughts: Twins Should Pursue Reyes

I've been thinking a lot about the Twins lately, specifically what I think the expectations should be for this off-season and for the 2012 campaign. While I celebrated the re-installation of Terry Ryan as Twins GM, I was equally disappointed to hear that the team plans on dropping it's 2012 payroll to around $100M. Imagine my surprise when I saw many fellow Twins' bloggers support this decision; I figured the reaction would be the opposite. Here's my logic, and I'm going to present a case that the Twins should go after Jose Reyes.

Two Aprils ago, on a mild night in Minneapolis, the Twins played their first regular-season game in the new Target Field. That 2010 season was a dream of sorts with the squad tallying 94 wins and easily winning the AL Central crown. The playoffs left a poor taste in all of our mouths, but there was hope for 2011 because a majority of the team was returning...except for the middle-infield and half the bullpen. Things didn't work out the way most of us thought they would. In 2011, the Twins had their worst season in 12 years on their way to losing 99 games and finishing dead-last in the AL Central. Bill Smith was fired. Terry Ryan was re-crowned GM...and now the Twins want to reduce the payroll?? Only 2 seasons after opening their brand-new stadium...a large portion of which was paid for by taxpayers in Minnesota? This may seem crazy, but I think that rather than pulling back, this team should be doing all it can to put a competitive team back on the field next year. The holes are obvious and the potential fixes for those holes are out there in the form of free-agents.

In my opinion, when you fight for 10+ years to get a new stadium built and then it gets done, and then in only your 2nd year in said stadium the team has a bad season...you DON'T give up. I think the Twins owe it to the fans to put as good of a product as possible onto the field, even it is means raising the payroll to $120M or $130M. Here are some other reasons why now is a bad time to reduce payroll and "re-build" for a couple of years: 

a) Joe Mauer isn't getting any younger, neither is Justin Morneau. I realize that both players have had their injuries and that neither is a "sure thing" for the 2012 season, especially Morneau. That said, Mauer is turning 29 shortly after the 2012 season starts and Morneau will turn 31 next May. If you doing the re-building thing for the next season or two, you may be missing out on the last couple of "prime" years from two of your current superstars. Say what you will about Mauer, I know there's a lot of question marks there, but he is going to have a few more great seasons during his career. 

b) The Twins have nothing in the Minors that inspires much confidence, especially in terms of pitching. As this last season showed, the Twins farm depth is no where near what many of us thought it was. Many of the Triple-A players that were called-up as a result of injuries last year were over-matched or were just not very good. Of particular concern was the lack of middle-infield depth and the lack of capable bullpen arms in the farm system. Nothing has really changed on that front. The Twins have a few decent prospects (Hicks, Sano, etc), but NONE of them are pitchers...in fact the one elite pitching prospect they had (Kyle Gibson) will likely not even pitch in 2012 due to Tommy John surgery. Liam Hendriks, who was thought to be one of the Twins better Minor League arms, took a huge step back in 2011 and pitched to a 6.17 ERA in 4 September starts with the Major League club at the end of the year. According to Baseball Prospectus' new prospect rankings, the Twins have ZERO pitching prospects that even rise to the level of "3-stars". No matter how you look at it, the Twins are going to be getting much rotation help from the Minors any time soon and we've all seen what they have for potential bullpen arms and, well, it ain't good. 

c) Re-building isn't going to put butts in the seats. The reason the Twins are talking about reducing payroll is because the team is anticipating a loss of revenue as a result of the team's poor play on the field in 2011. Less season-tickets have been sold, there was less revenue from vendors in the 2nd half of last season, and on and on. That said, spending less on the team and risking a couple more losing seasons isn't going to increase revenue. If anything, it will simply make the problem worse which will result in continued payroll reductions. This has been the Pohlad's M.O. all the way back to when Carl was owner of the team. The Pohlad's want the team to be profitable and they will reduce payroll to the point where, at the very minimum, the Twins are a break-ever proposition. To hear front-office people say, "oh, we might raise the payroll again in a few years" is insulting. The Twins increased their payroll number after every winning season during the 2000's and dropped it following the 2007 after the club had a sub-.500 record that season. The only reason the payroll went up in 2009 was in anticipation of the club's move to Target Field.

You always hear sports media people talk about "windows" for a given team winning a championship. Usually they are talking about how the "window is closing" on a team...and in the Twins case, the window is already closed or, at best, it's almost closed. This is why the Twins put a stopper on the window and try and get Jose Reyes. Landing Reyes would address a number of issues the Twins have. 

a) Shortstop-play is perhaps the Twins most glaring weakness. The position has been a black-hole of offense for them for a majority of the past 20 years and though they have been able to put capable defenders there, they haven't been able to find the complete package (aside from the one season of JJ Hardy).
b) As was made obvious last season, middle infield defense can be directly correlated to the success of the pitching staff. There are a lot of factors at play here, but good middle infield defense can save A LOT of runs which translates directly to wins. Reyes is a very capable defender with a large range when healthy.
c) Ron Gardenhire wants speed? Reyes is speed. He stole 39 bases last season in only 126 games. When he has played full seasons, he's led the National League in steals 3 times (2005, 2006, 2007).
d) There has been talk of the Twins trading Denard Span, some say to the Nationals. If they managed to do that and picked up either Espinosa or Desmond, they could put either one at 2nd base, and by acquiring Reyes, you have a bonafide lead-off man to replace Span. Reyes has more pop, more speed, and a better eye than Span.

Reyes isn't going to be cheap. He made $11M this past season and projects to be making at least $15-$20M/yr depending on the length of the deal. That represents a SIGNIFICANT investment for the Twins, yes, but it also fills a hole that the organization clearly has right now and will probably have for awhile if it is not addressed soon. Reyes is 28-years-old, so he is by no means old, and if you could entice him with a short-term deal, like has been rumored to the be the case with the Marlins (reported that they offered him 3-years @ $20M per), you could hedge your bets a little with regard to age.

I don't expect the Twins to be players in the Reyes sweepstakes, especially considering their recent announcement about payroll, but it's fun to dream. I really don't understand the reduction in payroll and I don't understand the support for it either. This team has set of circumstances RIGHT NOW (in terms of the age of certain star players) that it will not have 2 or 3 years from now. I think the Twins should either try like hell right now to win, or it's going to be awhile before we see a truly competitive team on the field.

The SS/2B Dilemma

Tonight is the night (any Dexter fans out there?). As the clock strikes midnight, MLB free-agents everywhere will be eligible to sign a contract with any club that makes them an offer. Some are Type-A free-agents, others Type-B, but all of them free to go to any team that will have them. If I'm Bill Smith and the Twins, I have a lot of work to do this off-season. I need half of a bullpen, I need a couple of middle-infielders, I might even need a starter...I've gotta get going. Earlier this week I talked about the Twins bullpen needs and now I want to focus on another somewhat pressing need of theirs and that's the middle infield.

Tsuyoshi Nishioka was a disaster last year. Alexi Casilla was pretty much who we thought he would be. The others were just minor-league fill-ins in what was a dismal season up the middle. Last year's experiments highlighted just how much of a mistake it was to let JJ Hardy and Orlando Hudson go without having a whole lot to fall back on. 5 players saw 15 or more starts at 2nd base. 4 players saw more than 30 starts at SS. 44 errors we committed between the two positions and an overall .970 fielding percentage (league average for the positions combined was .979)...and that's not even counting the 20 errors at 3B. Last year's Twins team was essentially a real-life example of how much of a difference a good (or bad) defensive middle-infield makes.

Given that free-agency is literally right around the corner, here are a couple of free-agents that would be a good fit for the Twins. Some of them are more expensive, others not so much - though for a lower salary you often have to compromise on offensive production.

#1 Candidate: Kelly Johnson (2B) - Type-A
MLBTR thinks that Johnson is headed to the Dodgers, but there's no reason to think that the Twins couldn't get in on this free-agent. I've talked about Johnson here before on this site, but in my opinion he really is the cream of the crop when it comes to free-agent 2nd basemen. Johnson is 29-years-old, he has a career .260/.343/.441 triple-slash, and he's a good 2nd baseman (.981 career fielding % and career 10.9 UZR). While Johnson is perhaps one of the more expensive middle-infield candidates out there, he also is probably looking for a long-term contract which the Twins would be smart to offer him given the lack of middle-infield depth within the organization. Johnson made $5.85M last season and could probably be had for a 3-5 year deal worth about $7-9M per year (worth the picks you'd have to give up due to Johnson's Type-A FA status). Johnson would be an instant upgrade on Alexi Casilla and would allow the Twins to either move Casilla to SS or find someone else to play shortstop and make Casilla a utility option.

#2 Candidate: Clint Barmes (SS or 2B) - Type-B
I actually wouldn't mind seeing the Twins pursue both of these guys, but my gut tells me that's unrealistic. Barmes in not much to look at offensively, but he is intriguing from a defensive standpoint. Barmes has played more SS in his career than 2B, but has a solid (not spectacular) glove and a little pop in his bat. He made $3.92M last year and if offered some sort of multi-year deal, would probably only command a salary in the $4M-$5M per year range, maybe even less. At 32 years old Barmes is probably only to get slower from here, but as a short-term fix, he's worth a look.

#3 Candidate: Aaron Hill (2B best, can play SS) - Type-B
Hill would most likely be a 2B candidate only, but again, it's a need the Twins have so he's worth a look. After being traded to the Arizona Diamondbacks last season, Hill showed that he's still got it carrying a .315/.386/.492 line in 33 games to end the season. Hill has a career 21.7 UZR score at 2B to go along with his .987 fielding %. Hill and Johnson are very similar...both are solid defenders who bring a bat with them to the plate. Within the spacious confines of Target Field, Hill is likely to be more of a doubles hitter than Johnson but either of them would be a vast upgrade offensively from what the Twins have in-house. Aaron Hill made $5M last year and would be the "middle-of-the-road" option between these three, likely commanding a $5-7M salary over a 2-3 year deal.

There are other options out there, Furcal, Betancourt, etc., but these are the three options I like best based on price, age and ability. I would love to have Kelly Johnson, I think he would make a great fit for the Twins, but my gut tells me I'm dreaming which is really too bad.

WS Thoughts & The Off-Season

I went to bed in the 8th inning of Game 6, my birthday was on Friday and I was out and missed Game 7...that said, I still caught the excitement of it and and my thoughts about this year's World Series can be summed up in one word: WOW. I love how a number of 'sportswriters' out there are all, "oh my gawd, this World Series SAVED baseball..." Um...no it didn't, it simply reminded everyone of how great of a sport baseball is and how exciting it can be. This whole season was great (home-town team aside) and the St. Louis Cardinals are an incredible story of how anything can happen if you just keep playing hard every day.

On the flip-side, my heart aches for the Texas Rangers and their fans. Back-to-back Game 7 losses in the World Series?? And I thought missing the playoffs for the first time in 2 years hurt. I just think of all the work that is takes to get to the World Series, then to do it in consecutive seasons and have nothing to show for it...it's heart-breaking. Overall, I thought it was a great series, it was quite compelling, I loved seeing Pujols make some history and I was really glad that there wasn't a "goat" or some extraneous circumstance that would ultimately distract from what a hard-fought series this was.

As we all bask in the glow of a great end to the 2011 MLB season, it's time to start talking Twins again - more specifically, it's time to start brain-storming ways that this team can attempt to field a much more competitive team in 2012. As has been reported on a number of blogs, the Twins look to have about $30M to spend this off-season and with the number of issues they have to address...figuring out how to spend $30M will not be a problem. For my money, the Twins need to address the bullpen first and as things are shaping up, there should be a number of intriguing options. The bullpen was clearly one of the Twins' greatest weaknesses this past season and as far as fixing things go, the bullpen is probably one of the cheaper fixes.


1. To Sign or not to Sign: Joe Nathan.
Those who say that the Twins should not re-sign Joe Nathan are the ones who point to his overall 2011 numbers, which are pretty ordinary. 4.84 ERA, 43/14 K/BB ratio, 1.16 WHIP - not closer-type numbers. That said, the last couple of months were much more Nathan-esque. Between July and the end of the season, Nathan threw 27.1 innings, striking out 27 and only walking 5 while saving 11 games. Considering the Twins only won 22 games in the second-half of the season, 11 saves isn't bad. Velocity-wise, Nathan only improved as the season went on which bodes well for his success next season and beyond. Ultimately, the question will most likely be cost - it wasn't a surprise at all that the Twins declined Nathan's $12.5M option. I think if they could sign the 36-year-old right-hander to a 2-year deal worth around $10-14M, I feel that they would end up getting their money's worth. In reading around other Twins blogs, it would seem I'm not alone in wanting Nathan back next year.

2. Identify your core bullpen pitchers and build around them.
Among the remaining in-house bullpen options (the obvious ones anyway), all of the main guys are arbitration eligible. Jose Mijaries, Glen Perkins and Kevin Slowey are all up for arbitration and the Twins could easily offer arbitration to all of them and not spend much cash. The most expensive of the three, Kevin Slowey, is worth the extra money because of versatility as a spot-starter. The total cost for all three would likely between somewhere in the $4.5 - $5.5M range and all three have been effective in the past. Around these 4 arms (Mijares, Perkins, Slowey and Nathan) - sign 2-3 additional bullpen pitchers. Options are plenty; here's a list compiled last year. There are a number of intriguing names on that list and it should not be any much trouble to land a couple of them on relatively cheap contracts. Some of the names that interest me are: Scott Linebrink, Jason Frasor (if the White Sox don't pick up his option), George Sherrill (left-handed, would be a nice set-up man for Nathan), and Michael Wuertz (could be a cheap option with good potential).

3. Don't sign any relievers to 3-year contracts.
Last year, it seemed like a number of teams lost their heads signing relievers to three-year deals. Of note in the AL Central were Jesse Crain (signed by the White Sox) and Joaquin Benoit (signed by the Detroit Tigers). Both pitchers end up having very good seasons, but one season does not a 3-year contract make. On top of that, for every example of a 3-year reliever deal that started well, you have an equally good example of one that did not (see: Rafael Soriano, NYY). With so many good names out on the market this year, there's no reason to be desperate. If you can't get Player X without a 3-year deal, move on and find someone else.

I know how this all plays out is much more complicated than I make it seem, but I really do feel that a re-vamped bullpen could add 15-20 wins to the season total next year. Twins relievers had 20 blown saves last year against 32 saves and 29% of the runners that Twins relievers inherited last year scored, which was right about average for the American League. If the Twins could reduce that blown-saves number from 20 to 10, that alone would be worth a $10-$15M investment in the bullpen. As was highlighted during the recently concluded post-season, bullpen pitching is critical to a team's success and if a team has a good bullpen, the confidence of the rest of the team increases accordingly.

Now is the Time to Play it Smart

At 18-37, the Twins are effectively out of the race for the AL Central crown...this is not new news. They're 15.5 games behind Cleveland coming into play today and the astronomical win-loss record they would have to put together from this point forward to win even 90 games is on the edge of ridiculous (for those that are curious, they'd have to go 72-35 from here on out). Everyone and their mom around the interwebs is talking about how the Twins are likely going to be sellers come the trade deadline and while I don't disagree with that sentiment, it can not be said emphatically enough that now is the time for the Twins to be smart and play their cards right.

When you're a "seller" that means a) things haven't gone well for you this year and b)you're not expecting them to get better quickly enough to contend. In terms of getting a good deal, that leaves you at a disadvantage. When you're a seller, you're essentially trying to dump salary or perhaps get a load of prospects in return for a more valuable Major Leaguer. The one thing the Twins absolutely need to keep in mind throughout the next two months is that they have both Michael Cuddyer and Joe Nathan's salaries coming off the books at the end of the season. That's $21,750,000 in salary between those two players alone. In addition to that, Jason Kubel, Matt Capps, and Jim Thome's salaries are also expiring at the end of the season, good for another $15,400,000 off the payroll number. In total, that's $37,150,000 in salary coming off the books at the end of the season, which is about 33% of the current payroll figure ($113M). Granted, yes, you would have to replace those guys, but aside from Kubes you can probably pretty easily replace that production at a fraction of the cost.

So what's the point I'm trying to make? What I'm trying to highlight here is the fact that the Twins don't absolutely NEED to be sellers. Sure, it would be nice to get a couple of prospects for Kubel or Slowey, there isn't much debating that the farm system is in need of an influx in talent...but it isn't worth trading either player unless you're getting something decent in return. The Twins will have enough flexibility with the payroll at the end of this season to make a lot of changes, they don't need to make bad deals now to preemptively try and patch up the holes on a terrible team. The people in the Twins' front office need to be both shrewd and smart right now because for as bad as things look, there is no reason to panic.

I don't think there is much debate that the middle infield is of utmost concern for this team going into next season. That said, considering the investment that the Twins have made in Tsuyoshi Nishioka, it's unlikely that they will be in the market for a 2nd basemen in the off-season. Here's one option that's intriguing:

Kelly Johnson - 2B - Diamondbacks - 29-years-old
Johnson has had somewhat of a down year so far this season, but he owns a career .794 OPS and is a solid defensive 2nd-baseman as well. Johnson has legitimate 20-25HR power and though he does strikeout a lot, he has managed a career .347 OBP. Johnson is set to make $5.85M this season, but could probably be had for $6-$8M per and would be an immediate upgrade over any of the options the Twins currently have at 2nd base.

As for Shortstop, the Twins clearly have a need there. Here are some of the better options:

Jose Reyes - SS - Mets - 27-years-old
Though this is likely a long-shot for the Twins, it's at least worth mentioning that a shortstop of Reyes' caliber will likely be on the market at the end of this season (provided he doesn't re-sign before the end of the year). Reyes has a solid .774 career OPS and while he's no gold-glove at shortstop, he would be light-years better than anything the Twins have, both offensively and defensively.

J.J. Hardy - SS - Orioles - 28-years-old
I find this scenario unlikely as well, considering that a) the Twins traded him away for two garbage relievers and b) there were rumblings that the coaching staff wasn't that impressed with Hardy. The Twins would have to be stupid not to consider this option, however, because the fact of the matter is that the Twins are getting schooled this season on the importance of middle-infield defense and Hardy, when healthy, is about as good as it gets at shortstop.

Rafael Furcal - SS - Dodgers - 33-years-old
While Furcal is an older option, his .285/.350/.410 hitting line would fit nicely into the Twins lineup. With Furcal, the question is always "can he stay healthy" as he has seen significant DL time in 3 out of the last 4 seasons. When he has been healthy he been a good producer offensively and his glove, well, it's been good enough (.965 career Fielding% at SS). The tricky thing with Furcal is that if he reaches 600 PAs this year (unlikely), his $12M option for 2012 become automatic. I can't see the Dodgers picking up a $12M option on him otherwise, so it's likely that Furcal will be a free-agent at the end of this season.

Other options include Yuniesky Betancourt, Ramon Santiago, and Jack Wilson, but to be completely frank, none of those options are much better than the middle-infield options the Twins have had this season.

Given that the Twins will likely have $20-$30M to spend during this coming off-season, using $8M-$10M of that money to fix their shortstop problem should be a no-brainer and they really couldn't go very wrong with any of the three options above. I would be ecstatic to have Reyes, but I find that to be so unlikely, it's not even worth getting excited about. The bottomline with all of this is that the Twins don't need to be aggressive sellers in the next two months and, in fact, they shouldn't make a deal unless they're getting quality in return. Bill Smith could go a long way in repairing his image with Twins fans if he makes patient, smart moves this year that end up paying off next year or down the road.

Who could the Twins get for Slowey?

With the recent news that the Twins might be trying to deal Kevin Slowey, I thought I might try my hand at trying to figure out who they might be able to get for the 26-year-old right-hander. I personally think the Twins should hang onto Slowey, especially since he's under team control through 2013 and I also question the wisdom of trading a young-ish starting pitcher for bullpen help, but because the Twins could use some better bullpen options, and because they have a definite surplus of rotation arms, I'm open to the idea.

The team with the most public interest in Slowey has been the Toronto Blue Jays. Joe Christensen reported yesterday that the Jays had 3 scouts watching Slowey and that they feel they have a surplus of relievers, some of whom might interest the Twins. In looking at the list of Blue Jay relievers, nothing impressive stands out, but I'll let you decide for yourself.

Frank Francisco
Octavio Dotel
Jon Rauch
Jason Frasor
Shawn Camp
Casey Janssen
Carlos Villanueva
Josh Roenicke

I think we can safety rule out getting Jon Rauch in a trade. Frank Francisco can probably be ruled out as well due to his $4M price tag this season. Dotel would be about right money-wise, but he has struggled mightily the past few seasons and is 37 years old. Frasor is definitely worth taking a look at and the Twins have been reported to have been interested in Frasor in the past. Shawn Camp would struggle to beat out relievers the Twins already have, as would Casey Janssen. Villaneuva would be a decent cheap option but Roenicke is not appealing at all.

Jason Frasor
Frasor has been a picture of durability over the course of his 7 year career. He has pitched in at least 49 games in every season since 2004 and has averaged almost 59 appearances per year over that time. He has a tasty 0.8 HR/9 mark for his career to go along with a career 8.4 K/9 rate. His $3.5M price tag is a bit on the high side, but he would fit in nicely in the Twins 'pen. He's tough on both righties and lefties, holding RHBs to a .649 OPS and LHBs to a .696 OPS for his career. Frason and prospect or two would be a decent get in return for Slowey.

Carlos Villanueva
This is definitely the cheap option as Villanueva is only slated to make $1.415M this year. The Jays traded for him in the off-season, so that may impact their willingness to trade him away. Villanueva would likely come with a prospect or two as well, so that's definitely something to keep in mind. Villanueva had an interesting year last year as he saw his K/9 rate jump to a career-high of 11.45 which was very uncharacteristic for a guy who sat solidly in the high 7s for most of his career up to this point. As far as whether he's a ground-ball or fly-ball pitcher, he's kinda right in the middle holding a 1.01 GB/FB ratio for his career. He seems like an interesting option, though I'm not sold on his K-rate staying above 10. If the Twins dealt for Villanueva, I'd be more interested in which prospects they received.

Other teams speculated to have interest in Slowey include the Cardinals and Yankees, but I'm not seeing much reported interest from either team. There have been conflicting reports from the Cardinals, some saying they will look internally to fill the void left by Wainwright's injury, others saying they will look externally. Whatever they decide to do, I think it will be a couple of weeks until they make a decision to look outside the organization and by then, Slowey may have been traded already. As far as the Yankees go, I just can't see them being terribly interested in Slowey, especially considering how impressive some of their young guns have been in Spring Training so far. I see the Yankees waiting till mid-season to acquire a pitcher over trying to get Slowey now. The Yankees are looking to a make a splash, and acquiring Slowey would be more of a splat, at least in the eyes of the media and various Yankee blogs. In fact, Mike Axisa over at River Ave Blues wrote about this very topic the other day. Should be interesting to see what happens in these last 3 weeks of Spring Training, 7 starters, 5 slots. I'm in denial that Blackburn is a sure thing for the rotation.

Redemption

It's been reported by various sources that Carl Pavano has re-signed for the Twins for ... wait for it ... $16.5M. Now that is what I'm talkin' about! Pavano was reportedly offered a deal by the Yankees for one-year and $10M. TwinsGeek said it first, but Pavano probably signed for half to three-quarters of his market value at the beginning of the off-season. There are probably many theories out there on why this deal was so long in the making and why few other clubs were interested in Pavano, but it can't be ignored that Pavano is 35-years-old and has had only a few seasons during his career in which made it through an entire season without injury.

I think this deal is good for the Twins on a number of fronts. First and foremost, the deal provides the Twins some insurance in the event that Pavano does experience injury over the next two seasons. Yes, they are still on the hook for $8.25M per, but that's vastly less than Pavano was expected to sign for. Secondly, this provides the Twins with some extra cash to spend on the bullpen in the last couple months of the off-season. That is huge. For a team with such a void to fill, any wiggle-room is big. Thirdly, Pavano is back with the Twins for two years. He is a veteran presence, by all accounts a good clubhouse guy, and so far with the Twins, he's been consistent and effective. Even if his production declines a little over the next year or two, the Twins will still have guy who can go out there every 5 days (again, if he stays healthy) and give them 5-7 serviceable innings. TwinkieTown had an excellent piece today looking ahead to next year's off-season, paying special attention to the fact that the Twins may very well have $20-$30M to spend. With Pavano locked up beyond next year, he's one less guy they will have to think about, giving them an opportunity to be a major player in the free-agent market in 2012. Who knows what this year will bring, but there is optimism for the Twins beyond this season.

Welcome back 'stash!

Seriously?

I'm a little surprised that there hasn't been more written about Jesse Crain today, considering that he was signed BY THE WHITE SOX yesterday, getting a 3-year deal worth a reported $13M. When I read it I literally said, out loud, "What the F*#%." Crain's deal represents a pretty good raise (he made $2M last year) and it's probably overall a stupid move on the White Sox part, but what really sucks is that he went to a division opponent...

I really don't see the vision of the Twins front-office this off-season...it's getting to the point of absurdity. First (not in chronological order) you trade a VALUABLE short-stop in JJ Hardy for 2 minor-league also-rans. Then you make a run at a Japanese League player (Nishioka) who is completely unproven and every bit as injury-prone as the shortstop you had. Then you watch two of your bullpen stalwarts from last year walk, one to a team within the division. Then you give pretty much everyone the impression that you're trying to sign a 35-year-old pitcher with a lengthy injury history to a multi-year deal. And on top of all that you're probably going to overpay a reliever you traded ONE OF YOUR TOP PROSPECTS for last year. Man, when I look at all of that together in one paragraph, my blood starts to boil, who is running this team and what have they done???

Here's how my blueprint for the off-season would have gone, unfortunately it's WAY too late for any of this to play out:

1.) Re-sign JJ Hardy to a two-year deal, $12-$14M
Rationale: Hardy's had a mediocre two year stretch and he's still one of the top 10 at his position. His defense alone almost makes it worth re-signing him and if he had been able to play the next two years at a level similar to his 2010 second-half production, he would have made a very valuable, and very affordable SS. Instead the Twins decided to blow $5M on a posting-fee for an unproven Japanese player and then sign the kid to what will likely be a 3-year, $10M deal...where did you save all that much money in that equation??


2.) Trade Danny Valencia, a prospect Kevin Slowey/Nick Blackburn ($3M) to the Indians for Fausto Carmona
Rationale: I'm not sure how the money works out there, but the Indians are clearly in cost-savings mode considering they recently slashed ticket prices and are set to have one of the more meager payrolls in baseball this coming season. Let's all be honest with ourselves, Danny Valencia is never going to duplicate what he did last season and the Twins need pitching. Say the Indians bite on Blackburn, Valencia and Hick/Revere/Somebody. The Twins starting rotation then looks like Liriano, Carmona, Baker, Slowey, Duensing...not bad. For a mere $28M the Twins could keep Carmona through 2014. Total addition to the payroll this year: ~$3M

3.) Let Carl Pavano walk, let Matt Capps walk
Rationale: I don't care what the argument is, re-signing Pavano is not a good idea in ANY situation I can see, unless you're talking about a one-year deal and let's be honest, some other team out there is going to be willing to give him more than one-year, I just don't want it to be the Twins and CERTAINLY not for $10-$15M per. As for Matt Capps, come on Billy, you f-ed up, just admit it and move on and drop Capps, it's not worth keeping him.

4.) Try and sign Adrian Beltre
Rationale: Sometimes you have to go for it and that, for the Twins, means extending that payroll, maybe even a little beyond what's comfortable...or practical...kinda like what the White Sox are doing right now. Anyway, the consensus seems to be that 5-years and $70M would do it...that's about $14M per, it's steep, but you're getting a very solid defensive 3rd basemen with quite a bat. He wouldn't duplicate his home-run binge from last year if he played at Target Field, but he would certainly hit his share of doubles and be a nice addition to the Mauer/Morneau combo.

5.) I suppose there's no way, given the previous scenarios I've laid out, to re-sign either Crain or Guerrier, but if the Twins hadn't idiotically committed to re-signing Capps, they'd have a nice bit of change to make a run at it. Short of that, as Gleeman pointed out today, there should be a number of serviceable arms left after this initial bullpen feeding frenzy to piece something together.


So it's pie-in-the-sky. Unfortunately Hardy is already gone and the Twins have already managed to bungle up this off-season pretty badly. I'm really trying to be optimistic, but this is some pretty poor decision making. Maybe I'll be wrong, maybe Nishioka turns into an infield version of Ichiro, maybe the Twins call up Gibson and he becomes David Price-esque. Maybe, maybe, maybe. I see all that, but to me, "maybes" don't win championships and when you're this close, I'd rather spend the extra money to have the better bets. Until the Twins front-office can focus more on the talent than the bottom-line, I fear we will continue to be stuck where they're at, decent, but not championship material.

Phillies the new Miami Heat (Lee the new LeBron)?

Something is bound to go wrong. Not since the early '90s with the Braves have we seen this kind of talent assembled in one starting rotation. In case you've been staying in a remote village for the last week, or for some ridiculous reason my blog is your homepage, Cliff Lee signed with the Phillies overnight and joins Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt, and Cole Hamels in what is bar-none the best starting 4 in all of baseball. Two thoughts: 

a) How ironic is it that the very blueprint the Yankees used for success in the late '90s and early '00s is coming back to bite them now? By that I mean, the Yankees used to suck up top-talent after top-talent in free-agency year after year which helped them, to some degree, win 5 world series championships in the last 14 years. Now, teams like the Red Sox and Phillies have adopted a somewhat similar strategy (especially the Red Sox) in acquiring expensive talent to build winning ballclubs. In this case, one of the teams following that blue-print gobbled up a prize free-agent in a last-minute deal. Fear not Yankee fans, the Yankees will find somebody else, it may cost them a little bit, but this will only serve to make them more aggressive on the market. 

b) I couldn't help but think about the somewhat obvious similarities to LeBron's big Decision and the mass of talent that the Miami Heat now have. There are some huge differences between baseball and basketball which will make it worlds easier for the Phillies to hold this much talent together, but still, the whole "buying a championship" thing...I don't know, it seems pretty lame. I can't help but think a little less of Lee for doing what he decided to do. For one thing, he turned down an opportunity to pitch on the biggest stage in baseball, He fled to the weaker and easier National League, and he went to the team packed with talent where he won't even be considered the best pitcher on the staff. You could give Lee props for doing what he wanted to do in going back to a team that traded him away, you could give him a pat on the back for giving his wife's wishes some consideration, but the main thing that separates Lee from LeBron is that he didn't make a big spectacle of it, he just let his agent do the work and kept out of the spotlight. I like that he didn't make a big deal out of it. The media did that for him. He just let the cards fall and it turns out, he got as good of a deal from the Phillies as he would have anywhere else and he gets to pitch in the much more pitcher-friendly National League. In the words of Ethel Merman, "everything's coming up roses"...for Lee that is.

Nothing's for sure, injuries happen, pitchers break down, offenses can go cold, etc, etc. That being said, if everything works out for the Phillies, you have to think that they'll be strong contenders for the World Series, check out this rotation: 

1.) Roy Halladay - 2 Cy Young Awards, 7 All-Star Appearances, 169 Career Wins
2.) Cliff Lee - 1 Cy Young Award, 2 All-Star Appearances, 102 Career Wins
3.) Roy Oswalt - 5 Top Five Cy Young Finishes, 3 All-Star Appearances, 150 Career Wins
4.) Cole Hamels - 1 All-Star Appearance, 60 Career Wins
5.) Who knows. Blanton?

Cliff Lee has the highest career ERA of any of those 4 pitchers at 3.85, between them they have 3 Cy Youngs, 16 Top-10 Cy Young finishes, 481 wins and 13 All-Star Appearances. Lee is now locked up for 5 years, Cole Hamels will be arbitration eligible starting in 2012, Oswalt is signed through next year and has a mutual option for 2012 and Halladay is signed through 2014. In other words, this isn't just a one-year, one-shot thing, this group will be in Philly for at least the next 2 years and possibly longer than that. Wow.

Hardy Reaction

I've been reading around the Twins blogs and other blogs for the past hour or so soaking up the various opinions on the JJ Hardy trade the Twins executed today with the Baltimore Orioles. Had I any time to write a post earlier today I might have gone by the numbers and tried to make a case one way or the other, but I'm late to the game so I'll skip that and just give straight up opinion.

Back in October I wrote a piece laying out an argument for bringing back Hardy and claiming that he should be the Twins #1 priority to re-sign in the off-season...so much for that. The bottomline for my argument was that a) Hardy is way more valuable when compared to other shortstops and what's available than he looks to be standing alone and b) $7M is not too much to pay for a proven defensive commodity with offensive upside. As Nick Nelson highlighted in his opinion of the trade, the Twins now find themselves with a very unstable and highly risky setup at SS and 2nd, relying heavily on a very average Alexi Casilla and an unproven Tsuyoshi Nishioka (provided the Twins do actually sign him). Granted, they did save, by all accounts, about $3-$4M in salary between what Hardy would have gotten and Harris' salary, but I'm not sure that savings justifies the trade.

The most irritating thing I'm reading through all of this is that this trade would somehow be justified if the Twins turn around and re-sign Carl Pavano. Um...NO, IT WOULDN'T. First of all, re-signing a 35-year old pitcher to a 3-year deal and then saying that it somehow justifies trading away a semi-valuable 28-year-old shortstop is idiotic logic. For another thing, I'm sick of hearing about how resigning Pavano is a good idea. It's not a good idea. The guy has a track record of injury and locking him in till he's 38 is just asking to get screwed. One and a half seasons of decent baseball does not a 3-year contract merit. What the Twins outta do is pursue a trade for an arm that other people aren't talking about...like Fausto Carmona or Wandy Rodriguez.

Twins Geek suggested that this move means the Twins payroll will only go up by 10-15% instead of 25%, I'm just not following the logic there. I think the Orioles offered the Twins those two also-ran minor league pitchers and the Twins front-office said (wisely), "why don't you take this flour-sack-of-a-player Brendan Harris off our hands too, ya know, to make the deal resemble something fair." And the Orioles said, "OK." I don't think it's any indication of the payroll situation, but it does work nicely either way in opening up another couple million to spend on pitchers.

David Golebiewski from FanGraphs said it best, "I’d be shocked if Casilla comes anywhere close to Hardy’s production level in 2011. Should Casilla get a starting job, it’s possible that he’s a win-and-a-half to two win downgrade at the position." That's a best-case scenario, and if either Casilla or Nishioka gets hurt, you're looking at the likes of Trevor Plouffe in the starting lineup and frankly, that's scary.

Here's to hoping a) Justin Morneau returns next season and resembles his old self, b) Kubel has a year that more closely resembles 2009, and c) the Twins don't have any injuries to their 2nd basemen or Shortstop. That's a lot to hope for.

Random Baseball Thoughts

I took a nice long break from baseball and to be honest, I didn't miss much. I've kept up with the other baseball blogs and sites out there in my absence and people have resorted to writing about some pretty off-the-wall stuff in the absence of real news. HardballTalk is going through the worst uniforms of all time, Gleeman is onto another Top 40 List (which I enjoy, but he only does it during the off-season), and FanGraphs is writing articles about Eric Hinske and Jose Lopez. So here's my take on some of the more interesting happenings over the past two weeks.

I want to start off with Derek Jeter. It seems to me that up until the couple of days, the Yankees' organization have handled the situation poorly. There's been too much talking to the media and the whole, "go and try to find a better deal" thing was a bit ridiculous. That said, I feel like $45M over 3 years is WAY more than Jeter is worth, even despite his status as a Yankee Legend. For a team with seemingly unlimited payroll, I know it doesn't make that much of a difference to them what they pay Jeter, but if I'm Jeter, I'm grateful that I'm getting that much and I'm saying, "yes sir, thank you sir." It's not that simple, I understand that, but I can't help but feel off-put by the situation; it seems like yet another example of a greedy athlete. I don't understand the argument that the Yankees "need" to keep Jeter, it seems to me like that would go against their desire to have the best team possible,...not that Jeter hurts them much, but still, I don't get that argument.

The White Sox are scaring me. First they pick up Adam Dunn which was predictable considering the hard-on Kenny Williams has had for him dating back to the trading deadline last year. But then they re-sign Pierzynski and let Jenks go and now they're talking about re-signing Konerko as well. First of all, Dunn adds some serious left-handed power and about as consistent a bat as you can find out there. If they bring back Pauly, you will see Konerko at first and Dunn in the DH spot with the occasional flip-flop here and there to give Konerko some rest. Dunn will be a excellent fit for them at the plate and U.S. Cellular is a hitters park which Dunn will thrive on. Then you think about their potential rotation with Danks, Floyd, Jackson, Peavy, and Buehrle at their disposal. The back-end of their bullpen will probably be Chris Sale setting up Matt Thornton which is quite fearsome. You put all of that together and you are looking at a pretty solid team top to bottom with power, some speed, good pitching and solid bullpen. Anyway you look at, the White Sox look to be contenders next year, no doubt about it.

I was pretty sad to hear about the passing of Ron Santo. My wife is a HUGE Cubs fan and it hit her particularly hard. Santo was as much a Cubs Legend as Billy Williams, Fergie Jenkins or any of the other Cubs Legends was and despite a wide variety of physical ailments, Santo kept with the Cubs and was still doing games for WGN even this past season. The thing I'll always remember about Ron Santo is when listening to Cubs games on the radio, you felt like he was a fan sitting right next to you in the stands. He was always right there was a "YEAH!!!" when something good happened and with a "GALL-LEE!" when something didn't go the Cubs way. Ron Santo was as loved as Harry Carey and I expect the Cubs organization will do something very nice to celebrate his life in the near future. Maybe now he'll finally get a well-deserved nod into the Hall of Fame.

The Cliff Lee speculation has gotten wildly out of control. Now it comes out today that Nolan Ryan thinks it will take awhile. Does anybody really know? Let's just wait and see, enough of the speculation already.

The Twins made a curious move by winning the negotiation bid on Tsuyoshi Nishioka. It's a mistake in my mind, but I guess if doesn't work out it won't cost them anything. It makes me think that their budget is not as tight as many have made it seem. I like that they offered arbitration to JJ Hardy and I really hope things don't work out with Nishioka and we have Hardy as the starting SS come next season. I also hope the Twins don't bring back Jim Thome, though I think I may be alone in that opinion. I hope the Twins make a little bigger splash than simply fighting to bring back the old band, but my hopes are not that high.

Who is Tsuyoshi Nishioka?

Oh man, I can just imagine Gordo and Gladden trying to pronounce this guy's name...or Blyleven. Anyway, I saw this little tidbit this morning and thought to myself, "what? who is this guy?" So I did a little digging:

*Source






I wouldn't have the slightest clue how success in the Japanese professional baseball league translates to the U.S. Major Leagues, so it's difficult to draw conclusions from this stat sheet, but I suppose there are a couple of things we can note. 


a) He's speedy. It's concerning that since swiping 41 bags as a 20-year-old, he hasn't really come close since, but in 144 games last season he stole 22 bases which is decent.
b) He gets on base. They don't give his strikeout and walk numbers here, but a .364 OBP is pretty good and last season, his best year in professional baseball, he put up Mauer type numbers with a .423 OBP. He'd likely made a decent lead-off hitter in the Majors. I did find some more numbers here and it looks like Nishioka has a good eye, drawing walks at a good rate compared to strikeouts.
c) He's injury-prone. He's never missed a majority of a season -- he's managed to at least play 115 games in every season since becoming a full-time player -- but he's missed time in almost every season of his career for various things (wrist, knee, head, hammy, etc).

Christensen admittedly labeled the Twins chances of landing Nishioka as "slim," and Nishioka himself has said that he prefers the West Coast. I have to wonder why the Twins are even bothering. For one, they have to pay just to negotiate with Nishioka, and if you add the negotiating fee to the cost of signing him, I don't really see how you're getting that much more value than just bringing Hardy back on via arbitration. Nishioka gives you a bit more middle-infield speed, but I can't imagine he is much better than Hardy fielding-wise and it's yet to be seen how much better he would be at the plate since there's no guarantee he would be able to duplicate his Japanese success in the Majors.

I've noticed that between Iwakuma and now Nishioka, the Twins seem to have developed a sudden fascination with Japanese players. I'm not sure what the reason for this is, most of the players that have come over from Japan have not done very well (notable exceptions include Ichiro, Hideo Nomo for a few years, Matsuzaka perhaps, and a small handful of others). I guess we'll see what happens, should know by next week.

"It's all about Pitching."

"It's all about pitching. Pitching, pitching, pitching, [...] Pitching is the key to the kingdom, which is why you try to collect as much of it as you can."

Brian Cashman said these words in his first post-season press conference yesterday and no matter what you think about the Yankees or Mr. Cashman, these words could not be more true when it comes to consistent success in the Major Leagues. Wanna know how true? Here are the regular-season starting rotations for each of the World Series teams for the last 10 years along with their ERA and FIP for that season. 

Year: 2001 
World Champion: Arizona Diamondbacks (4-3) 
Runner-Up: New York Yankees 

Diamondbacks Starting Rotation (ERA/FIP):

Curt Schilling - 2.98/3.11

Randy Johnson (L) - 2.49/2.13

Brian Anderson (L) - 5.20/5.36

Robert Ellis - 5.77/5.09

Albie Lopez - 4.00/3.84 

Yankees Starting Rotation (ERA/FIP):

Mike Mussina - 3.15/2.92

Roger Clemens - 3.51/3.29

Andy Pettite (L) - 3.99/3.02

Ted Lilly (L) - 5.37/4.79

Orlando Hernandez - 4.85/5.52

One odd stat from this series, Randy Johnson won 3 of the 7 games, the last as a reliever in Game 7. This series certainly had it's share of clunkers, but when you have Schilling and Johnson pitching as well as they were and on the same team, you've got a good chance no matter how good the other guys are...and the Yankees had a fearsome bunch of their own. The Diamondbacks won this series because of Johnson and Schilling, no doubt about it.

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Year: 2002 
World Champion: Anaheim Angels (4-3) 
Runner-Up: San Francisco Giants 

Angels Starting Rotation (ERA/FIP):

Ramon Ortiz - 3.77/4.87

Jarrod Washburn (L) - 3.15/3.71

Kevin Appier - 3.92/4.28

Aaron Sele - 4.89/4.69

John Lackey - 3.66/3.91 

Giants Starting Rotation (ERA/FIP):

Livan Hernandez - 4.38/3.91

Russ Ortiz - 3.61/3.97

Kirk Rueter (L) - 3.23/4.43

Jason Schmidt - 3.45/3.11

Ryan Jensen - 4.51/4.57

This 7-game series was not particularly well-pitched. Angels pitchers had a 5.75 team-ERA in the series and the Giants had a 5.55 team-ERA. When you look at how these two teams got to the World Series though, you see good pitching on both sides.

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Year: 2003 
World Champions: Florida Marlins (4-2) 
Runner-Up: New York Yankees 

Marlins Starting Rotation (ERA/FIP):

Carl Pavano - 4.30/3.77
Brad Penny - 4.13/3.92
Mark Redman (L) - 3.59/3.58
Dontrelle Willis (L) - 3.30/3.45
Josh Beckett -3.04/2.94 

Yankees Starting Rotation (ERA/FIP):
Mike Mussina - 3.40/3.09
David Wells (L) - 4.14/3.94
Roger Clemens - 3.91/3.60
Andy Pettite (L) - 4.02/3.35
Jeff Weaver - 5.99/4.26

This series went 6 games, but it's obvious how good these teams were just by looking at their pitching staffs. Every single Marlins starter had an FIP below 4.00. The Marlins were able to win a World Series because they hoarded pitching talent for a few years until it all came together, their line-up was full of up-and-coming youngsters (Miguel Cabrera was a 20-year-old utility man) with a couple of veteran leaders sprinkled in (Derek Lee & Mike Lowell). Beckett was the series MVP and overall, it was a fairly low scoring series.
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Year: 2004 
World Champion: Boston Red Sox (4-0) 
Runner-Up: St. Louis Cardinals 

Red Sox Starting Rotation (ERA/FIP):
Curt Schilling - 3.26/3.11
Pedro Martinez - 3.90/3.58
Tim Wakefield - 4.87/5.08
Derek Lowe - 5.42/4.26
Bronson Arroyo - 4.03/3.82 

Cardinals Starting Rotation (ERA/FIP):
Matt Morris - 4.72/4.93
Jason Marquis - 3.71/4.55
Woody Williams - 4.18/4.10
Jeff Suppan - 4.16/4.77
Chris Carpenter - 3.41/3.85

Looking at the numbers, is it a surprise this series was a 4-game sweep? One thing that really stuck out to me was that there were zero left-handed starting pitchers, for either team, that can't have happened many times in modern baseball history. Again we see that 1-2 punch (Schilling and Martinez in this case) spelling victory...
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Year: 2005 
World Champion: Chicago White Sox (4-0) 
Runner-Up: Houston Astros 

White Sox Starting Rotation (ERA/FIP):
Mark Buerhle (L) - 3.12/3.42
Freddy Garcia - 3.87/4.05
Jon Garland - 3.50/4.24
Jose Contreras - 3.61/4.21
Orlando Hernandez - 5.12/4.87 

Astros Starting Rotation (ERA/FIP):
Roy Oswalt - 2.94/3.16
Andy Pettite (L) - 2.39/3.06
Roger Clemens - 1.87/2.87
Brandon Backe (L) - 4.76/4.80
Wandy Rodriguez - 5.53/5.12

This 4-0 sweep in this one was is a little hard to understand considering the arms (and experience) the Astros had, but again, I'm trying to highlight here that pitching gets you to the World Series. Both of these teams were stocked with pitchers who are efficient (White Sox had 4 pitchers with 200+ innings in the regular season) and who could bring it.
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Year: 2006 
World Champion: St. Louis Cardinals (4-1) 
Runner-Up: Detroit Tigers 

Cardinals Starting Rotation (ERA/FIP):
Chris Carpenter - 3.09/3.44
Jason Marquis - 6.02/5.90
Jeff Suppan - 4.12/4.70
Anthony Reyes - 5.06/5.49
Adam Wainwright - 3.12/3.31 

Tigers Starting Rotation (ERA/FIP):
Jeremy Bonderman - 4.08/3.29
Nate Robertson (L) - 3.84/4.72
Kenny Rogers (L) - 3.84/4.69
Justin Verlander - 3.63/4.35
Zack Miner - 4.84/4.45

Again, a surprising result (4-1) given that teams appeared even on paper. The bigger story was probably the Detroit offense which only scored 11 runs in the series, but again, that's a testament to the St. Louis pitchers as well. More fun facts: David Eckstein was the WS MVP...
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Year: 2007
World Champion: Boston Red Sox (4-0)
Runner-Up: Colorado Rockies 

Red Sox Starting Rotation (ERA/FIP):
Daisuke Matsuzaka - 4.40/4.23
Josh Beckett - 3.27/3.08
Tim Wakefield - 4.76/4.67
Curt Schilling - 3.87/4.21
Jon Lester (L) - 4.57/5.24 

Rockies Starting Rotation (ERA/FIP):
Jeff Francis (L) - 4.22/4.19
Aaron Cook - 4.12/4.58
Josh Fogg - 4.94/5.21
Jason Hirsch - 4.81/5.32
Ubaldo Jimenez - 4.28/4.74

The Rockies had one of the most magical late-season stretches in baseball history to get into the playoffs and continued their red-hot play to get to the World Series,...then they had a few days off before the start of the World Series and everything fell apart. The Red Sox superior pitching took advantage as they held the Rockies to 10 runs in the series en route to a sweep.
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Year: 2008 
World Champion: Philadelphia Phillies (4-1) 
Runner-Up: Tampa Bay Rays 

Phillies Starting Rotation (ERA/FIP):
Cole Hamels (L) - 3.09/3.72
Jamie Moyer (L) - 3.71/4.32
Brett Myers - 4.55/4.52
Kyle Kendrick - 5.49/5.55
Joe Blanton - 4.20/5.03 

Rays Starting Rotation (ERA/FIP):
James Shields - 3.56/3.82
Andy Sonnanstein - 4.38/3.91
Matt Garza - 3.70/4.14
Edwin Jackson - 4.42/4.88
Scott Kazmir (L) - 3.49/4.37

This series probably could had gone either way, but as it was, it went quickly and to the Phillies in 5 games. The Rays followed the Marlins blue-print and managed to assemble some nice young talent, but that talent fell short when it mattered. Getting back to the point though, the pitching for both teams was good and a big reason they got to the World Series.
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Year: 2009
World Champions: New York Yankees (4-2)
Runner-Up: Philadelphia Phillies 

Yankees Starting Rotation (ERA/FIP):
CC Sabathia (L) - 3.37/3.39
AJ Burnett - 4.04/4.33
Andy Pettite (L) - 4.16/4.15
Joba Chamberlain - 4.75/4.82 

Phillies Starting Rotation (ERA/FIP):
Joe Blanton - 4.05/4.55
Cole Hamels (L) - 4.32/3.72
J.A. Happ - 2.93/4.33
Jamie Moyer (L) - 4.94/5.08
Cliff Lee (L) - 3.39/2.83

Not a particularly well-pitched World Series, lots of scoring, but to my point again, it's not a stretch to see why these two teams were here. They both had the offense, of course, but it was the pitching that ultimately brought them to the pinnacle.
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Year: 2010
World Champion: San Francisco Giants (4-1)
Runner-Up: Texas Rangers 

Giants Starting Rotation (ERA/FIP):
Tim Lincecum - 3.43/3.15
Matt Cain - 3.14/.365
Madison Bumgarner (L) - 3.00/3.66
Jonathan Sanchez (L) - 3.07/4.00
Barry Zito - 4.15/4.25 

Rangers Starting Rotation (ERA/FIP):
Cliff Lee (L) - 3.98/2.99
CJ Wilson (L) - 3.35/3.56
Colby Lewis - 3.72/3.55
Tommy Hunter - 3.73/4.99
Scott Feldman - 5.48/4.73


The Giants went 11-3 in the playoffs and while some of that success can be chalked up to an uncharacteristically good offense, the pitching was also very good and a big reason why the Giants were able to rise to the top in a hotly contested NL West and eventually win the world series. The Rangers featured quite a rotation themselves but their main man, Cliff Lee, fell apart a little in the World Series which ultimately lead to their demise.


So now we've looked at the regular season starting rotations of the last 10 World Champions and the same chorus rings true for most, if not all of those teams. They had a dominant starter (or two), and good enough 3 and 4 guys which propelled them to post-season success. If we looked even deeper I would wager that many of those teams also had good bullpens and a dominant closer in most cases. Good pitchers truly are the "key to the kingdom" as Brian Cashman put it, and that's why the Twins need to do what they can to bolster their rotation with another reliable starter. I don't know that Greinke is realistic, but there are others out there, chronicled here, that would do a fine job. Adding another pitcher wouldn't guarantee anything, obviously, but having pieces of the puzzle at least gives you a chance. Cashman knows this and that's why he's going after Cliff Lee. The Twins should follow suit.