A Move the Twins Can Make Now

My fandom for this team is wavering - I can admit it. In March I was optimistic that the Twins could put the 2011 disaster behind them and have a respectable season, hell maybe even a winning season. It is now clear that my 'rose-colored glasses' were on and those glasses now lay broken in pieces on the ground. Reality is a bitch sometimes. After watching historic offensive ineptitude over the last 5 games, watching the team get no-hit and swept by the Angels and handled easily by the lowly Mariners, it's getting to the point where I can't follow this team on a daily basis any longer. I'm not going to stop being a fan - it just hurts too much to continue watching day after day. All that said, I think it's time that the Twins front-office took a realistic look at things. This team isn't going to win anything this year...and likely won't be winning anything next year either. The current team in inept on a number of levels with too many holes to address all at once. So, knowing that the mountain lay in front of you, first steps need to be taken and taken soon. The first thing I would do is see what you can get for Matt Capps.

There are a number of teams right now with struggling and/or injured Closers. Potential teams that would be looking for a closer include: Yankees, Marlins, Nationals, Blue Jays, Angels, Red Sox, Athletics, Giants, and on and on. Trading for Matt Capps was the beginning of the fall for the Twins and dealing him now could be the beginning of the healing process. I know that not all of the teams I mentioned above are going to be interested in an overweight closer with a suspect history of success in the 'Closer' role, but surely there must be a team or two out there who could be duped into giving up a prospect or two for the 28-year-old right-hander, just as the Twins were 2 years ago. The bottom-line is that the Twins aren't really going to need Capps and there is currently a lot of potential demand for someone with his experience. Not only that, you clear the remainder of his $4.5M salary off the books.

There are other players the Twins could trade. Denard Span, Carl Pavano and Josh Willingham come to mind. None are more useless to this team, however, than the portly Capps. The Twins have a strained bullpen already, but with the way the starters have pitched it doesn't really make sense to hold on to a guy like Capps given the closer situations on so many other teams. The Twins have to start turning the ship around by rebuilding their depleted Minor League system and that happens by trading expendable talent like Capps.

Beyond trading Capps, this organization needs to take some serious time in thinking about their philosophies towards pitching and hitting. The "pitch-to-contact" philosophy that has now become the punch-line to jokes when referring to the Twins, is obviously flawed. Without good defense to back up these types of pitchers, the results are bound to be disastrous. From an offensive standpoint, the brass seem to put an emphasis on the elusive concept of "team speed" but a) poorly utilize the speed they do have and b) don't understand that "team speed" and winning don't correlate very well. The teams that are successful have a balance between "power" and "finesse". They have the boppers who can hit one out at any moment and they have the scrappy singles and doubles hitters who can pester the opponent with speed. They have power arms and they have control pitchers. They don't get stuck trying to hoard one type of pitcher or hitter. They put a high value on players whose strengths translate into winning baseball...no matter the particular way in which they go about it.

I want to be optimistic about this team, but Twins fans, I'm afraid we're in for a few years of losing baseball before things get better. There are a lot of factors, both internally and externally, working against this team. The division has gotten better. The Twins minor league system has some talent, but that talent is currently at the A and AA levels and is not nearing maturity to the Bigs. The current squad of big-league talent isn't that good. Payroll will continue to shrink as attendance wanes. The Twins don't have much to offer in the form of trade-bait. In summary, this team needs Terry Ryan's savvy more than ever, to dig out of a hole that has quickly gotten very deep.

Oh What a Difference an Infield Can Make

With the hometown team having fallen on hard times (again) of late, we need something else to look at and today I'm here to provide that. There's been some talk around the Twins blogosphere lately about J.J. Hardy and how he's having a monster season for the Orioles...basically revisiting what a mistake it was for the Twins to trade him away for practically nothing. I am, of course, in wholehearted agreement with these sentiments, but I want to look at things from a slightly different angle. It's been no secret that for the majority of the season the Twins starting rotation (and bullpen) have struggled and though the rotation is pretty much composed of the exact same pieces, the results have been vastly different. I want to try and see what role infield defense has played in that difference and see if we can draw any conclusions.

First, some numbers.

Here are the ERAs, FIPs and xFIPs for the starting 5 from last year. I've also included their groundball-to-flyball ratio and their HR/FB%. For those not familiar with these metrics, FIP and xFIP attempt to remove variables from the equation that the pitcher cannot control with the goal of giving you an ERA-type number than more accurately states how a given pitcher performed. For example, though Francisco Liriano had a 3.62 ERA last year, his FIP was 2.66 and his xFIP was 2.95, good for 3rd and 2nd in all of baseball respectively. In other words, Liriano's pitching performance as a whole last year was much better than his ERA suggested. For more on FIP and xFIP, click the links.

2010 Pitching Numbers for Twins Starters: (ERA/FIP/xFIP), GB/FB ratio, HR/FB%, BABIP

Francisco Liriano (3.62/2.66/2.95), 1.96 GB/FB, 6.3%, .331
Carl Pavano (3.75/4.02/3.86), 1.66 GB/FB, 10.6%, .281
Scott Baker (4.49/3.96/3.82), 0.85 GB/FB,10.2%, .323
Kevin Slowey (4.45/3.98/4.24), 0.56 GB/FB, 8.2%, .307
Nick Blackburn (5.42/5.07/4.46), 1.57 GB/FB, 13.5%, .305

Numbers for the Twins starting staff in 2010: (4.17/3.91/3.84), 1.28 GB/FB, 9.9%, .299, 3.91 SIERA

2011 Pitching Numbers for Twins Starters: (ERA/FIP/xFIP), GB/FB ratio, HR/FB%, BABIP

Francisco Liriano (5.00/4.53/4.41), 1.45 GB/FB, 10.2%, .286
Carl Pavano (4.71/4.08/4.30), 1.48 GB/FB, 7.8%, .302
Scott Baker (3.21/3.49/3.55) 0.77 GB/FB, 8.9%, .299
Brian Duensing (4.56/4.05/4.00), 1.16 GB/FB, 9.6%, .317
Nick Blackburn (4.36/4.76/4.17), 1.98 GB/FB, 14.3%, .310

Numbers for the Twins starting staff in 2011: (4.30/4.18/4.10), 1.30 GB/FB, 9.7%, .296, 4.14 SIERA

Quick Discussion:
The first thing that jumps out at me with these numbers is just how poorly the starting rotation has pitched in 2011 when compared to the 2010 numbers. Even though the HR/FB% is down this year and the GB/FB ratio is up slightly, all three pitching metrics (ERA, FIP, xFIP) are worse for the staff this year. The second thing that pops out to me is that the staff BABIP (batting average on balls in play) is actually better this year than last. This is probably due to the fact that 4 of the Twins starters this year are ground-ball-heavy pitchers compared to only 3 of the 5 in 2010. More ground-balls equals more outs. The main culprits for these year's poor pitching results are Liriano and Pavano, that much is fairly obvious. Both are having terrible seasons compared to 2010 while the bottom 3/5ths of the rotation is actually performing a little better than last year's 3, 4 and 5 starters.

Now, the fielding numbers.

Quick caveat here, I obviously don't have a complete season's worth of number for this year. As a work around to that I calculated how much of this season has been played so far (72.2%) and for the counting stats, I just made the statistical assumption that the Twins will continue at the pace they've been on.

The Whole Team 2010:
78 errors
.987 Fielding%
+54 DRS (Defensive Runs Saved)
30.7 UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating)
3.2 URZ/150

Middle Infield 2010:
34 errors
.979 Fielding%
+27 DRS
11.1/9.9 UZR/UZR150 for 2B
14.0/13.2 UZR/UZR150 for SS


The Whole Team 2011:
116 errors
.981 Fielding%
-19 DRS
3.1 UZR
-0.4 UZR/150

Middle Infield 2011:
40 errors
.975 Fielding%
-18 DRS
-0.8/-0.5 UZR/UZR150 for 2B so far in 2011
-9.4/-12.0 UZR/UZR150 for SS so far in 2011

The numbers really do speak for themselves. Of particular note is the "Defensive Runs Saved" stat. This stat is like WAR (Wins Above Replacement) for defenders. 0 is "average", anything above is good and a getting better, anything below is bad and getting worse. Last year's middle infield for the Twins had a +27 DRS mark which was Top 5 in MLB, this year's team is pretty much the complete opposite story, not only playing to a negative DRS number, but also playing to negative UZR numbers as well. For a team with so many ground-ball-heavy starting pitchers (4 of 5 starters have a GB/FB ratio north of 1.00)...a strong defensive middle-infield is a must and sadly, we've gotten to see first hand how much of a difference it can make.

To my original premise, as I've gone through this I've come to realize how difficult it would be to isolate the effect of poor middle-infield defense on pitching results. It's easy to see that this year's middle infield has been much worse than last year's, but how that ends up affecting the pitching?...well, that's hard to say. I feel confident in saying the two are correlated, of that I have no doubt, especially when the starting staff is as adept at inducing the ground-ball as this one has been. This is my plea to Bill Smith and the Twins...PLEASE get some middle-infield help this off-season...if you're going to keep the same pitchers, improving the middle-infield defense on this team should be, far and away, priority #1 this off-season.

A Disappointing Start

The Twins' first series of the year is now in the books and if I summed it up in one word, that word would be: disappointing. From Carl Pavano's opening inning on Friday to Joe Nathan's white-knuckle save to win today's game, the Twins looked to be on shaky ground the entire time. I suppose there are several caveats that should be mentioned before people think I'm getting too down on this team.

a) The series was on the road and last year's 94-win team only won 50% of their road games.
b) The series was against an AL East opponent and, say what you will, the Twins have had perennial struggles with AL East opponent for several years now.
c) It's the first series of the year, there's a lot of baseball yet to be played.
d) Hey, the Twins are getting these tough road games out of the way early right?
e) Both Liriano and Pavano are better pitchers than they showed in their respective starts. If it was Blackburn, Baker or Duensing that had struggled, there would be more reason to worry going forward, but Pavano and Liriano will bounce back.

I think it's that last point that gives me hope. Sure Pavano and Liriano got roughed up and it was ugly, but they are both good pitchers who, more than likely, just happened to have rough starts in back-to-back games. It's not what you'd like to see, especially to start a year, but it's not the end of the world. That said, there are a few other things that happened that do have me worried...

a) Tsuyoshi Nishioka had 2 errors in three games,...that kind of defense is not going to win you any Gold Gloves in the Major Leagues. It could be nerves, but it's something to watch going forward.
b) Justin Morneau looks like he could have used a couple more weeks of Spring Training. He's 1 for 10 on the young season, with a strikeout and a walk and he hasn't looked anything like his old self...here's hoping he turns it around.
c) The bullpen looked shaky and they were used a lot on Friday and Saturday.
d) As mentioned earlier, Nathan looked very hittable today, and the Pitch FX data on his outing suggests that he's still in recovery-mode from Tommy John surgery. His fastest fastball today was 91.8 mph, almost a full 2 mph slower than his average fastball in 2009 and 2009. Not only that, his command was very spotty, which indicates that he's not all the way back. This will be something to keep a close eye on, if he has another outing like he did today, Gardenhire may choose to make Capps the closer for awhile.

So now it's on to New York City to play the Yankees for four. I don't even need to go into how much the Twins have struggled again New York for the last several years, every Twins fan is painfully aware. We'll get our first looks at Scott Baker and Brian Duensing in the series as they go up against Ivan Nova and Yankee-ace CC Sabathia. I'm looking to see some more offense for the Twins in this series and hoping for a little better defense as well. It think it would be a big boost of confidence for the Twins if they could split this series, though I'm not holding my breath.

Redemption

It's been reported by various sources that Carl Pavano has re-signed for the Twins for ... wait for it ... $16.5M. Now that is what I'm talkin' about! Pavano was reportedly offered a deal by the Yankees for one-year and $10M. TwinsGeek said it first, but Pavano probably signed for half to three-quarters of his market value at the beginning of the off-season. There are probably many theories out there on why this deal was so long in the making and why few other clubs were interested in Pavano, but it can't be ignored that Pavano is 35-years-old and has had only a few seasons during his career in which made it through an entire season without injury.

I think this deal is good for the Twins on a number of fronts. First and foremost, the deal provides the Twins some insurance in the event that Pavano does experience injury over the next two seasons. Yes, they are still on the hook for $8.25M per, but that's vastly less than Pavano was expected to sign for. Secondly, this provides the Twins with some extra cash to spend on the bullpen in the last couple months of the off-season. That is huge. For a team with such a void to fill, any wiggle-room is big. Thirdly, Pavano is back with the Twins for two years. He is a veteran presence, by all accounts a good clubhouse guy, and so far with the Twins, he's been consistent and effective. Even if his production declines a little over the next year or two, the Twins will still have guy who can go out there every 5 days (again, if he stays healthy) and give them 5-7 serviceable innings. TwinkieTown had an excellent piece today looking ahead to next year's off-season, paying special attention to the fact that the Twins may very well have $20-$30M to spend. With Pavano locked up beyond next year, he's one less guy they will have to think about, giving them an opportunity to be a major player in the free-agent market in 2012. Who knows what this year will bring, but there is optimism for the Twins beyond this season.

Welcome back 'stash!

Pavano Comes Through

Carl "Super 'Stash" Pavano came through in a big way for the Twins yesterday, out-dueling Roy Halladay who has now struggled in consecutive starts against AL opponents. Pavano pitched his 2nd complete game of the season, striking out 2 and walking none. After Saturday night's 23-run affair, Pavano really saved the bullpen and gave the team just what it needed at a time when they needed it most. Even more importantly, the Twins won a tough road series kept their slim 1.5 game lead over the Tiger intact.

The Twins now travel to Milwaukee for a 3 game set vs. the Brewers. The pitching matchups favor the Twins on paper and the Brewers are not a very good home team (11-19 this season so far), but the Twins will need to play well to take the series. Ideally they'd take the first two games because Thursday they face Yovani Gallardo, easily the ace of the Brewers starting staff and one of the better pitchers in the National League.

A Nice Change of Pace

Hey Twins fans, remember when the Twins used to pick up those "crafty veterans" like Livan Hernandez, Ramon Ortiz, and Sidney Ponson, only to watch them lose us a few games early on before they were, inevitably, cut? Isn't it nice not to have one of those guys on the team the last two seasons? When the Twins traded for him last season and brought him back this year, I thought he was going to be another one of those guys. I've been pleasantly surprised so far.

Carl Pavano was originally drafted by the Boston Red Sox in the 14th round of the 1994 amateur draft. He was traded to the Expos with whom he made his major league debut in 1998 and then traded in 2002 to the Florida Marlins. A little known fact about Pavano is that he gave up Mark McGwire's 70th HR in 1998.

After a successful World Series run and win with the Marlins in 2003, he had the best year of his career in 2004, compiling a 18-8 record to go along with a 3.00ERA/1.17WHIP in 222+ innings. The following season he signed a 4-year deal with the New York Yankees worth about $40M. That was the beginning of his decline. In the summer of 2005, he injured his right shoulder, he had another freak injury in spring training before the 2006 season (bruised buttocks) which put him on the DL and then in August of '06 he was involved in an car accident and broke 2 ribs. He ended up not making a single major league start in 2006. In 2007, Pavano had Tommy John surgery and missed almost the entire 2007 season. By the time he made it back in the 2008 season, his 4-year contract was nearly up with the Yankees and Pavano had done nothing to endear himself to either the team or the fans and the Yankees simply let him walk. In January 2009, Pavano signed a 1-year deal with the Cleveland Indians and was traded to the Twins in August of last year.

Pavano has pitched 200 innings in a season three times in his career, in 2003, 2004, and 2009. His career 4.44ERA and 5.9 K/BB is nothing spectacular, but he has seemed to resemble more of his old self since coming to the Twins late last season. In 97 IP with the Twins, Pavano has a 8-5 record and a 4.55ERA, 1.31WHIP, and 76:17 K/BB ratio (!). Again, nothing spectacular, but in a rotation that features a resurgent Francisco Liriano, and youngsters Kevin Slowey, Scott Baker and Nick Blackburn, Pavano provides a nice veteran presence while keeping the Twins in the games he starts. He's currently signed to a one-year deal after accepting arbitration with the Twins this past off-season. Obviously the key for Pavano is to stay healthy, but if he can continue to exhibit the control he has shown so far with the Twins, he could once again pitch 200 innings and be a very valuable part of this year's team.

Aaron Gleeman wrote a great piece the other day looking back on what the Twins could have done this past off-season with a guy like Rich Harden out there. I have to agree with his conclusion, I've very glad the Twins opted to re-sign Pavano. So far, so good.