WS Thoughts & The Off-Season

I went to bed in the 8th inning of Game 6, my birthday was on Friday and I was out and missed Game 7...that said, I still caught the excitement of it and and my thoughts about this year's World Series can be summed up in one word: WOW. I love how a number of 'sportswriters' out there are all, "oh my gawd, this World Series SAVED baseball..." Um...no it didn't, it simply reminded everyone of how great of a sport baseball is and how exciting it can be. This whole season was great (home-town team aside) and the St. Louis Cardinals are an incredible story of how anything can happen if you just keep playing hard every day.

On the flip-side, my heart aches for the Texas Rangers and their fans. Back-to-back Game 7 losses in the World Series?? And I thought missing the playoffs for the first time in 2 years hurt. I just think of all the work that is takes to get to the World Series, then to do it in consecutive seasons and have nothing to show for it...it's heart-breaking. Overall, I thought it was a great series, it was quite compelling, I loved seeing Pujols make some history and I was really glad that there wasn't a "goat" or some extraneous circumstance that would ultimately distract from what a hard-fought series this was.

As we all bask in the glow of a great end to the 2011 MLB season, it's time to start talking Twins again - more specifically, it's time to start brain-storming ways that this team can attempt to field a much more competitive team in 2012. As has been reported on a number of blogs, the Twins look to have about $30M to spend this off-season and with the number of issues they have to address...figuring out how to spend $30M will not be a problem. For my money, the Twins need to address the bullpen first and as things are shaping up, there should be a number of intriguing options. The bullpen was clearly one of the Twins' greatest weaknesses this past season and as far as fixing things go, the bullpen is probably one of the cheaper fixes.


1. To Sign or not to Sign: Joe Nathan.
Those who say that the Twins should not re-sign Joe Nathan are the ones who point to his overall 2011 numbers, which are pretty ordinary. 4.84 ERA, 43/14 K/BB ratio, 1.16 WHIP - not closer-type numbers. That said, the last couple of months were much more Nathan-esque. Between July and the end of the season, Nathan threw 27.1 innings, striking out 27 and only walking 5 while saving 11 games. Considering the Twins only won 22 games in the second-half of the season, 11 saves isn't bad. Velocity-wise, Nathan only improved as the season went on which bodes well for his success next season and beyond. Ultimately, the question will most likely be cost - it wasn't a surprise at all that the Twins declined Nathan's $12.5M option. I think if they could sign the 36-year-old right-hander to a 2-year deal worth around $10-14M, I feel that they would end up getting their money's worth. In reading around other Twins blogs, it would seem I'm not alone in wanting Nathan back next year.

2. Identify your core bullpen pitchers and build around them.
Among the remaining in-house bullpen options (the obvious ones anyway), all of the main guys are arbitration eligible. Jose Mijaries, Glen Perkins and Kevin Slowey are all up for arbitration and the Twins could easily offer arbitration to all of them and not spend much cash. The most expensive of the three, Kevin Slowey, is worth the extra money because of versatility as a spot-starter. The total cost for all three would likely between somewhere in the $4.5 - $5.5M range and all three have been effective in the past. Around these 4 arms (Mijares, Perkins, Slowey and Nathan) - sign 2-3 additional bullpen pitchers. Options are plenty; here's a list compiled last year. There are a number of intriguing names on that list and it should not be any much trouble to land a couple of them on relatively cheap contracts. Some of the names that interest me are: Scott Linebrink, Jason Frasor (if the White Sox don't pick up his option), George Sherrill (left-handed, would be a nice set-up man for Nathan), and Michael Wuertz (could be a cheap option with good potential).

3. Don't sign any relievers to 3-year contracts.
Last year, it seemed like a number of teams lost their heads signing relievers to three-year deals. Of note in the AL Central were Jesse Crain (signed by the White Sox) and Joaquin Benoit (signed by the Detroit Tigers). Both pitchers end up having very good seasons, but one season does not a 3-year contract make. On top of that, for every example of a 3-year reliever deal that started well, you have an equally good example of one that did not (see: Rafael Soriano, NYY). With so many good names out on the market this year, there's no reason to be desperate. If you can't get Player X without a 3-year deal, move on and find someone else.

I know how this all plays out is much more complicated than I make it seem, but I really do feel that a re-vamped bullpen could add 15-20 wins to the season total next year. Twins relievers had 20 blown saves last year against 32 saves and 29% of the runners that Twins relievers inherited last year scored, which was right about average for the American League. If the Twins could reduce that blown-saves number from 20 to 10, that alone would be worth a $10-$15M investment in the bullpen. As was highlighted during the recently concluded post-season, bullpen pitching is critical to a team's success and if a team has a good bullpen, the confidence of the rest of the team increases accordingly.

Capps Has Got to Go

On the face of things, the Twins have been playing pretty well lately. After a 6-game slide they've bounced back and have won 6 of their past 7 games and had it not been for a bullpen implosion against Milwaukee over the weekend we would be talking about a 7-game winning streak...and that's the face of things. When one turns the power up on the microscope, however, you see a team that is barely getting by, mostly because of a shaky back end of the bullpen. It hasn't been great all year, but things have really took a turn for the worse over the past 4 games and most of the blame lands squarely on Matt Capps' shoulders.

On Saturday, the Twins jumped out to a 7-0 lead over the Milwaukee Brewers and looked to be in cruise-mode en route to another victory. Carl Pavano wasn't lights out, but made it through 7 2/3rds innings giving up 3 earned runs, tipped his cap and handed it off to the bullpen to get the last 4 outs. Perkins came in and did his job striking out the only guy he faced. Capps came in with a 3-run lead to start the 9th inning, gave up three straight singles, got two outs and then gave up another double Nyjer Morgan and a single to George Kottaras to blow the game. Phil Dumatrait had to be called in to get the final out of the inning.

On Sunday the Twins got themselves into a donnybrook, with Nick Blackburn giving up 6 runs and Zack Greinke surrendering 5. The Twins also got the Brewer bullpen and held a 9-7 lead going into the top of the 9th. Gardenhire once again called on Capps to close the game and he proceeded to give up a lead-off single to Rickie Weeks, got Nyjer Morgan to ground into a fielder choice and, and gave up another single to Corey Hart. At this point, Gardy must have been steaming because with a 2-run lead, Capps had men at 1st and 2nd with only one-out and all-world hitter Prince Fielder strolling to the plate. Gardy decided to make a change calling on Glen Perkins who proceeded to strike out Fielder and pinch-hitter Casey McGehee to save the game and the day.

On Monday, suddenly-hot Brian Duensing threw a complete game shutout for our Twins as they cruised to a 7-0 victory. We were spared of any Capps meltdown for one day.

Last night, the Twins once again found themselves clinging to a small lead late in the game. Up 3-1 after getting to starter James Shields early in the game, Gardenhire maddeningly called on Capps once again to try and close out the victory. He must have immediately started kicking himself for making that choice as he watched Capps give up a lead-off bomb to B.J. Upton. Then a single Casey Kotchman. A fly-out, a line-out...could it be? No. A walk to Kelly Shoppach. Men at 1st and 2nd with 2-outs and a 1-run lead. Gardy had once again seen enough and once again called on Perkins to clean up Capps' mess, which he did on 3 pitches, getting Johnny Damon to ground out to short. Glen Perkins 2, Matt Capps 0.

As it stands at this very moment, the Twins are 7 games out of 1st place in the AL Central. After a game tonight to close out their series with the Rays, the Twins have 16-straight games against AL Central opponents beginning with a 4-game weekend set with their rivals from the Southside, the Chicago White Sox. If the Twins stand a chance at pulling off a miracle comeback in this division, they have got to be able to close games out when they have a lead in the 9th inning and right now, that means the Matt Capps has to be removed from the role. Right now they have two guys who are better options in the 9th, starting with Glen Perkins.

Glen Perkins has easily been the Twins most consistent reliever all season. After falling from grace and finding himself at Triple-A last year, Perkins has resurrected his career and is pitching as well as ever. Over his last 21 appearances, he's given up only 5 earned runs. He has a 32:11 K:BB ratio over 30.1 innings this year which is excellent and I think he has proven over the past 3 nights that he can get the job done when it matters. If there's a more pressure-packed situation than closing a game, it's closing a game when the guy who's supposed to be the closer can't do it.

Aside from Perkins, the case could be made that Joe Nathan deserves his old job back. Since coming back from the DL in late June, Nathan has thrown 5 innings of work surrendering one-run (the one run came in his first appearance off the DL) while striking out 5 against 0 walks. Not only that, his velocity is looking a whole lot more Nathan-like lately. Last night he threw 13 pitches, 9 of which we strikes. His fastball averaged 92.72mph and touched as high as 93.2mph. In the two seasons prior to Tommy John surgery, Nathan's fastball was averaging 93.6mph...earlier in the season Nathan was struggling to hit 91-92mph on the gun and now he's averaging almost 93mph...that's a good sign.

Either Perkins or Nathan would probably be a better option in the closer role at this point and I think either guy could succeed in the role. I have to imagine the Twins would love to get Nathan back in the closer role given that he is basically a very expensive set-up man right now. I'd be fine with either option, I just know Capps has to go. Every win is a precious commodity at this stage of the season and the Twins cannot afford to have a guy in the closer role who can't get the job done.

Random Twins Notes and a Word on Rivalries

It's tough to see the hometown team lose on a night in which the Indians and Tigers both won, but hey, there are gonna be bumps in the road and the Twins ran into a pitcher, in Vogelsong, who's been on a roll lately. The Twins didn't really help themselves out, committing three errors in the game and staying mostly silent at the plate, but Delmon Young and Michael Cuddyer continued their hot streaks with 2-hits each in the game. The Twins will have a tall task in the rubber match of the series this afternoon as they face two-time Cy Young Award winner Tim Lincecum. Lincecum has struggled of late so perhaps the Twins aren't getting the best version of him. The Twins will throw out left-hander Brian Duensing who has been pretty effective in June allowing only 5 earned runs over his last 16 innings of work. Duensing will need to continue to be on top of his game if the Twins are going to have a shot at winning this one.

Joe Nathan and Jim Thome are expected to be activated from the DL before the start of Friday's game against the Milwaukee Brewers. Nathan will likely be used as a set-up man right away, but it wouldn't surprise me one bit if he is the team's closer by season's end. Reports have been positive on Nathan especially concerning his velocity and control, both of which were concerns before he was placed on the DL. If he can prove effective, his presence could go a long way in improving the back-end of the Twins bullpen. As for Thome, it's hard to be that optimistic about the remainder of the season for him. Last year the Twins caught lightening in a bottle with Thome as he was healthy most of the season AND hit 25 dingers. This year has been the complete opposite as Thome has already seen the DL twice. I wouldn't be surprised if this is Thome's last season, and if he hits 7 or more homeruns to surpass the 600 mark, I can almost assure you this will be his last season. I'm rooting for the guy to stay healthy, but it's hard to know what to expect.

Justin Morneau and Denard Span both remain on the DL, but things are looking better for Morneau than they are for Span. Nick Nelson had a good piece yesterday on Span's situation and it doesn't sound good. In fact, it sounds a lot like Morneau's situation last season and at this point, Span and the Twins have no idea how long he is going to be out of the lineup. Morneau is supposed to have his soft cast removed tomorrow or Saturday and the thinking is that he might be able to resume baseball activities at some point shortly thereafter. I would guess that if Morneau's wrist is feeling better, he'll be put on some sort of rehab program that would last a week or so. Wrist injuries are notorious for sapping power hitters of their power, so there's no use in rushing Morneau back if his wrist isn't close to 100%.

Late last week I wrote a piece about realignment in baseball and how ridiculous the idea is. Today I was scanning my Facebook news feed when I came across the following exchange. It reminded me how great the rivalries in baseball are, especially among cross-town rivals, enjoy.

Don't Give Up on Kubes

I'm really digging the Twins winning ways lately and the hopeful Twins fan in me is starting to have dreams of this team winning 25 out of 30 games and getting back into the division race. The realistic fan in me knows that's not likely. In the likelier scenario that the Twins are still "out of it" at the end of June, they'll likely become sellers and I'm here to beg that they consider re-signing Jason Kubel. Here is my case:

We're all familiar with the ups and down of Jason Kubel's career with the Twins. Kubes destroyed Minor League pitching for 4 years before getting a shot at the Bigs in 2004. He didn't disappoint, hitting .300/.358/.433 as a 22-year-old in 23 games with the Twins. That fall, he endured a serious knee injury which kept him out of baseball for the entire 2005 season, and while he re-emerged with the Twins in 2006, the results were nothing like before. Kubel struggled for a couple of seasons in 2006 and 2007 before putting it all together in 2008. In '08, he hit .272/.335/.471 with 20HRs and 78RBIs while seeing part-time action in the outfield. In 2009, he had his 'breakout' hitting .300/.369/.539 with 28HRs and 103 RBIs. In a contract-year last season, he only managed a .249 batting-average, but did surpass the 20 homerun plateau for the 3rd straight season while driving in 92 runs.

Last off-season, the Twins picked up a $5.25M option on Kubel which was a pretty good deal for them and a pretty good deal for Kubel as well, considering how little he did in 2010 to help himself out. At the beginning of this year, while almost everything and everyone fell apart around him, Kubel was spectacular hitting .310/.355/.465 with 5HR and 30RBI before landing on the DL with a sprained left foot on June 2nd. As we get closer to July, talk around the interwebs has increased about the likelihood of the Twins being sellers, and Kubel's name gets mentioned often, along with the likes of Michael Cuddyer, Kevin Slowey and Delmon Young. Let's take a look at other left-handed power hitters over the last three years:

Click to enlarge (props to fangraphs.com)

The graph is pretty small, so if you don't feel like clicking on it, I'll let you know what it says. To produce the graph I sorted by OFers with a qualified # of at-bats over the last three years. Then I sorted it further by hitters against right-handed pitching and then sorted it from highest to lowest OPS. Over the last three years, Kubel has the 11th highest OPS (.883), the 11th highest batting average and the 8th most HRs against right-handers...among all of the outfielders in baseball. You won't find his name on the WAR leaderboards, but that's because his defense is so atrocious. If he was strictly in a DH role, his value would increase. Without Thome next year, the Twins will likely have an opening at DH, a role Kubel is familiar with and could probably excel in.

I'm not trying to make it sound like Kubel is a superstar player. He's not. What I am trying to say is that Kubel, as a left-handed hitter with power, possesses an offensive skill-set that is not all that common in MLB, and is not easily replaceable if they trade him or let him go. Kubel has had some injury problems over the years, but for the past three season he's been a consistent producer and a valuable part of the Twins lineup. For a reasonable amount of money, say $5-$7M per over 3-5 years (Kubes is only 29) you could have yourself a very capable DH who gives you some flexibility to play him in the field if someone goes down with an injury. With the salaries of Michael Cuddyer and Joe Nathan coming off the books at the end of the season, $5-7M/year is a reasonable amount of money to spend on a guy who can hit with power from the left side of the plate.

Moving on without Nathan? The Mijares Option

We've looked at Matt Guerrier and Jon Rauch for the 2010 Twins closer role, seeing that Guerrier could be due for regression and that Rauch may prove to be a solid, above-average option.  Now it's time to look at the hard-throwing LHP, Jose Mijares.



Mijares had a great year in 2009, putting up an anemic 2.34 ERA over 61.2 innings, striking out batters at a 8.03 per nine clip and walking 2.39 batters per nine.  His BABIP was .266, which is higher than his career MLB average of .243.  However, the sample size for his career BABIP is a mere 71 IP, so keep that in mind. .  His FIP was 4.01, which is noticeably higher than his ERA.  The reason for this is his insanely high strand rate of 89.0%, which puts him in the top 10 of all relievers.  Now, there are some fairly notable names in that top 10 (Rivera, Saito, Papelbon, Nathan and Soria), but at this point it isn't reasonable to conclude that Mijares could maintain the same LOB% in 2010.

For this reason, CHONE and Marcel predict a regression in 2010.  CHONE pegs Mijares for a 3.60 ERA over 70 IP, a K/9 of 7.71 and a BB/9 of 3.86.  CHONE calls for a LOB% of 74%, a 15% reduction, and a FIP of 4.40.  Marcel sees roughly the same thing, predicting an ERA of 3.63 over 57 IP with a K/9 rate of 7.42 and a BB/9 of 3.16.  It also sees a LOB% of 77.4%, and a FIP of 4.08.

Despite the inevitable regression, Mijares will still be a valuable piece of the Twins' bullpen in 2010.  He is likely to have the highest K rate of the three relievers discussed here, but also the highest BB rate, and will give them cheap production.  The Twins are fortunate to have three dependable in-house options to replace Nathan. Is there another name, though?  Someone we haven't mentioned?

How about Francisco Liriano?

More on this later.

Moving on without Nathan? The Rauch Option

We just looked at Matt Guerrier as an option for the 2010 Twins closer role and saw that he's likely to see a bit of regression in 2010, as his BABIP was artificially low and his BB rate was out of line with his career average.  Now we're going to look at Jon Rauch, the 6'11" freak acquiring from the Diamondbacks at last year's trade deadline.

Jon Rauch has been a consistent pitcher over the course of his career, posting a 3.79 ERA over 411 career IP, maintaining a career K/9 of 7.36 and a BB rate of 2.89.  His walk rate skews a bit high because of his first four years in the majors when he posted BB rates of 4.40, 3.09, 3.30 and 3.55.  Since then Rauch has put up BB rates of 2.16, 2.01 and 2.96, which is impressive given his height and the difficulty tall pitchers often have with repeating their mechanics and maintaining good control.

Last year, Rauch put up a 3.60 ERA over 70 IP, striking out 49 batters and walking 23 (K/9 of 6.30 and a BB/9 of 2.96).  His FIP was 3.88, and his BABIP of .301 was a tick higher than his career average (.284).  In short, Rauch had a 2009 campaign that was roughly similar to his last five years.  This is reason for optimism.

CHONE and Marcel look favorably upon Rauch in 2010.  CHONE pegs Rauch for a 3.95 ERA over 66 IP, with a K/9 rate of 6.41 and a BB rate of 2.59.  It sees his BABIP coming down 10 points to .291, and sees a FIP of 3.96.  If only every pitcher could pitch 0.01 point away from their FIP, this analysis would be a lot easier.  Marcel calls for a 4.16 ERA over 67 IP, a K/9 rate of 6.99 and a BB rate of 2.48.  It sees his BABIP coming in at .305 and a predicts a FIP of 4.19.

In essence, CHONE and Marcel predict roughly the same thing for 2010 that we saw in 2009.  They're slightly more pessimistic, and it seems that the reason for their pessimism comes from a normalization of his H9/9 rate, which sat at 0.77 in 2009, which is lower than his career average of 1.05.  CHONE predicts a HR/9 of 0.95 and Marcel predicts a HR/9 of 1.07.

Despite this, Rauch should be a dependable option out of the pen for the Twins.  Like Guerrier, he doesn't strike out as many guys as you would like, and doesn't boast Nathanesque control.  However, he seems to carry slightly less risk than Guerrier, and so it wouldn't be a surprise to see Rauch perform capably in the closer's role.

Moving on without Nathan? The Guerrier Option

This morning's news is causing no end of grief, sadness and gnashing of teeth for AK47 and DomeDog.  I can't say I blame them.  I'm a fan of Nathan, and he has been a valuable piece of the Twinks 'pen for years.  AK is down in the dumps, and saying that the Twins will struggle to replace him, but I'm here to offer a little ray of sunshine: the Twins will be OK.  Let's take a look at their internal options, shall we?

AK47 already mentioned Pat Neshek, and while I would love to push a friend of the blog forward, I have to think the Twins front office will want to go with someone who isn't coming off TJ.  This is a good opportunity for Neshek, though.  If he pitches well, he may see some time in the 8th inning. Other than Neshek, the three most logical options for the Twins closer role are Matt Guerrier, Jon The Giant Rauch, and Jose Mijares. I'll review all three, starting with Guerrier.

On the surface, Matt Guerrier had a great year last year, posting a 2.36 ERA over 76.1 IP, striking out 47 and walking only 16.  That's a K/9 of 5.54 and a BB/9 of 1.89.  However, Guerrier pitched to a 4.35 FIP and a .222 BABIP, while his LD, GB and FB% stayed roughly in line with his career averages.  His FIP was a 2 full runs higher than his ERA.  This is not good.

Additionally, Guerrier's excellent walk rate in 2009 was out of line with his career BB rate of 2.81.  This, as well as the ERA/FIP split and the extremely low BABIP, is why we see both Marcel and CHONE calling for a regression in Guerrier's 2010 performance. CHONE is is predicting 71 IP, 4.18 ERA, 6.12 K/9, 2.92 BB/9, as well as a FIP of 4.49.  Marcel is seeing roughly the same thing: 71 IP, 3.93 ERA, 6.46 K/9, 3.04 BB/9 and a FIP of 4.74.  Essentially, CHONE and Marcel are calling for a regression to the career norm of Guerrier's walk rate, and a normalization of his BABIP that bring his ERA in line with his FIP.

This is Matt Guerrier in a nutshell.  If the Twins use him and CHONE and Marcel are right, then we'll probably hear a lot of commentators talk about how Guerrier just isn't "suited" for the 9th inning, or can't "handle the pressure" of the closer role.  The reality may be different: 2009 was great but probably the result of a bit of luck.  There's nothing wrong per se with a closer with an ERA in the 4s and a low K rate, but I have to imagine Twins fans are wanting something more.  We'll see soon whether Rauch or Mijares give reasons for optimism.  

The Sad End: Joe Nathan

The reports out of Minnesota are not good, in fact, they are terrifying. Joe Christensen of the Star Tribune in Minneapolis tweeted this morning that Joe has a "torn ulnar collateral ligament" and that a "decision about Tommy John surgery" is upcoming. Rotoworld is confirming the story as well.


My friends have been trying to rile me up of late with talk of Joe Mauer being traded and yesterday, one of them tried to get to me saying that Joe Nathan was done. I brushed it off, I mean he had a little off-season surgery to clean up some bone chips, I thought there was nothing to be too concerned about. Now the worst-case-scenario has seemingly occurred leaving the Twins without one of their most consistent closers in team history.


It seems clear that the Twins will at least be sans-Nathan for a few months, and most likely, for the entire season. Joe is 35 so he may just try to let this heal on it's own, but if he goes that route, there's no assurance that he'll ever return to the form that saw him save 246 games in 6 seasons with the Twins.


**head falls into hands


So now what? People say Jon Rauch, sure, he's got closer experience. Other people say Guerrier, which in my opinion would be a mistake. I'd like to go ahead and nominate Pat Neshek who is returning this season from Tommy John surgery. We're big fans of Neshek here at TheBatShatters, especially after he did an e-interview for us early last year. I don't have any stats that give backing to my nomination of Neshek, and more than likely he will be slotted as a middle-reliever or set-up man.


This is really disappointing, especially for as much optimism as I had (and still have in a lot of ways) for this upcoming season. Nathan has been about as close to a sure-thing as Twins fans have been able to count on for the past 6 years. He's a HUGE reason the Twins have been competitive and, to be honest, I think the Twins will struggle to replace him.