Moving on without Nathan? The Mijares Option

We've looked at Matt Guerrier and Jon Rauch for the 2010 Twins closer role, seeing that Guerrier could be due for regression and that Rauch may prove to be a solid, above-average option.  Now it's time to look at the hard-throwing LHP, Jose Mijares.



Mijares had a great year in 2009, putting up an anemic 2.34 ERA over 61.2 innings, striking out batters at a 8.03 per nine clip and walking 2.39 batters per nine.  His BABIP was .266, which is higher than his career MLB average of .243.  However, the sample size for his career BABIP is a mere 71 IP, so keep that in mind. .  His FIP was 4.01, which is noticeably higher than his ERA.  The reason for this is his insanely high strand rate of 89.0%, which puts him in the top 10 of all relievers.  Now, there are some fairly notable names in that top 10 (Rivera, Saito, Papelbon, Nathan and Soria), but at this point it isn't reasonable to conclude that Mijares could maintain the same LOB% in 2010.

For this reason, CHONE and Marcel predict a regression in 2010.  CHONE pegs Mijares for a 3.60 ERA over 70 IP, a K/9 of 7.71 and a BB/9 of 3.86.  CHONE calls for a LOB% of 74%, a 15% reduction, and a FIP of 4.40.  Marcel sees roughly the same thing, predicting an ERA of 3.63 over 57 IP with a K/9 rate of 7.42 and a BB/9 of 3.16.  It also sees a LOB% of 77.4%, and a FIP of 4.08.

Despite the inevitable regression, Mijares will still be a valuable piece of the Twins' bullpen in 2010.  He is likely to have the highest K rate of the three relievers discussed here, but also the highest BB rate, and will give them cheap production.  The Twins are fortunate to have three dependable in-house options to replace Nathan. Is there another name, though?  Someone we haven't mentioned?

How about Francisco Liriano?

More on this later.

Moving on without Nathan? The Rauch Option

We just looked at Matt Guerrier as an option for the 2010 Twins closer role and saw that he's likely to see a bit of regression in 2010, as his BABIP was artificially low and his BB rate was out of line with his career average.  Now we're going to look at Jon Rauch, the 6'11" freak acquiring from the Diamondbacks at last year's trade deadline.

Jon Rauch has been a consistent pitcher over the course of his career, posting a 3.79 ERA over 411 career IP, maintaining a career K/9 of 7.36 and a BB rate of 2.89.  His walk rate skews a bit high because of his first four years in the majors when he posted BB rates of 4.40, 3.09, 3.30 and 3.55.  Since then Rauch has put up BB rates of 2.16, 2.01 and 2.96, which is impressive given his height and the difficulty tall pitchers often have with repeating their mechanics and maintaining good control.

Last year, Rauch put up a 3.60 ERA over 70 IP, striking out 49 batters and walking 23 (K/9 of 6.30 and a BB/9 of 2.96).  His FIP was 3.88, and his BABIP of .301 was a tick higher than his career average (.284).  In short, Rauch had a 2009 campaign that was roughly similar to his last five years.  This is reason for optimism.

CHONE and Marcel look favorably upon Rauch in 2010.  CHONE pegs Rauch for a 3.95 ERA over 66 IP, with a K/9 rate of 6.41 and a BB rate of 2.59.  It sees his BABIP coming down 10 points to .291, and sees a FIP of 3.96.  If only every pitcher could pitch 0.01 point away from their FIP, this analysis would be a lot easier.  Marcel calls for a 4.16 ERA over 67 IP, a K/9 rate of 6.99 and a BB rate of 2.48.  It sees his BABIP coming in at .305 and a predicts a FIP of 4.19.

In essence, CHONE and Marcel predict roughly the same thing for 2010 that we saw in 2009.  They're slightly more pessimistic, and it seems that the reason for their pessimism comes from a normalization of his H9/9 rate, which sat at 0.77 in 2009, which is lower than his career average of 1.05.  CHONE predicts a HR/9 of 0.95 and Marcel predicts a HR/9 of 1.07.

Despite this, Rauch should be a dependable option out of the pen for the Twins.  Like Guerrier, he doesn't strike out as many guys as you would like, and doesn't boast Nathanesque control.  However, he seems to carry slightly less risk than Guerrier, and so it wouldn't be a surprise to see Rauch perform capably in the closer's role.

Moving on without Nathan? The Guerrier Option

This morning's news is causing no end of grief, sadness and gnashing of teeth for AK47 and DomeDog.  I can't say I blame them.  I'm a fan of Nathan, and he has been a valuable piece of the Twinks 'pen for years.  AK is down in the dumps, and saying that the Twins will struggle to replace him, but I'm here to offer a little ray of sunshine: the Twins will be OK.  Let's take a look at their internal options, shall we?

AK47 already mentioned Pat Neshek, and while I would love to push a friend of the blog forward, I have to think the Twins front office will want to go with someone who isn't coming off TJ.  This is a good opportunity for Neshek, though.  If he pitches well, he may see some time in the 8th inning. Other than Neshek, the three most logical options for the Twins closer role are Matt Guerrier, Jon The Giant Rauch, and Jose Mijares. I'll review all three, starting with Guerrier.

On the surface, Matt Guerrier had a great year last year, posting a 2.36 ERA over 76.1 IP, striking out 47 and walking only 16.  That's a K/9 of 5.54 and a BB/9 of 1.89.  However, Guerrier pitched to a 4.35 FIP and a .222 BABIP, while his LD, GB and FB% stayed roughly in line with his career averages.  His FIP was a 2 full runs higher than his ERA.  This is not good.

Additionally, Guerrier's excellent walk rate in 2009 was out of line with his career BB rate of 2.81.  This, as well as the ERA/FIP split and the extremely low BABIP, is why we see both Marcel and CHONE calling for a regression in Guerrier's 2010 performance. CHONE is is predicting 71 IP, 4.18 ERA, 6.12 K/9, 2.92 BB/9, as well as a FIP of 4.49.  Marcel is seeing roughly the same thing: 71 IP, 3.93 ERA, 6.46 K/9, 3.04 BB/9 and a FIP of 4.74.  Essentially, CHONE and Marcel are calling for a regression to the career norm of Guerrier's walk rate, and a normalization of his BABIP that bring his ERA in line with his FIP.

This is Matt Guerrier in a nutshell.  If the Twins use him and CHONE and Marcel are right, then we'll probably hear a lot of commentators talk about how Guerrier just isn't "suited" for the 9th inning, or can't "handle the pressure" of the closer role.  The reality may be different: 2009 was great but probably the result of a bit of luck.  There's nothing wrong per se with a closer with an ERA in the 4s and a low K rate, but I have to imagine Twins fans are wanting something more.  We'll see soon whether Rauch or Mijares give reasons for optimism.