The Twins Front Office: More of the Same

I'll admit, when it comes to the White Sox, I have nothing good to say. I will never have anything good to say. I was living in the Chicago area on October 26th, 2005 and it was one of the most depressing days of my life. Watching them land both David Robertson and Jeff Samardzija in the past few days has brought my blood to a near boil when it comes to the Twins. Look, I get it, the Twins aren't going to be a contender this coming season, but there are moves that they could be making in free-agency NOW that would bring a contender back to Minnesota sooner rather than later. Instead, they are essentially sitting on the sidelines and waiting/hoping that their current crop of young talent will put it all together in 2016 and beyond. They are wasting opportunities that are out there now.

Let's look at some of the recent free-agent signings and trades that have happened.

Jeff Samardzija (SP)
The White Sox received Samardzija from the Oakland As for Marcus Semien (SS), Chris Bassitt (potential SP or long reliever) and a PTBNL. Both Semien and Bassitt are pretty decent prospects and the White Sox will only control Samardzija for one year, but still - that is relatively little to give up for a #2 starter like Samardzija. There is this perception that top-flight starters are expensive, but this is a case where I feel the White Sox didn't have to give up much to get one. Samardzija gives the White Sox a potent 1-2-3 in their rotation (along with Chris Sale and Jose Quintana) and along with the acquisition of David Robertson (FA RP), makes them look a whole lot better on paper than they did just a few weeks ago. I think they overpaid for Robertson (4-yrs, $46M) but that's not the point. The point is that the White Sox made themselves relevant and didn't have to make a bunch of moves to do so.

Brandon Moss (OF and 1B)
The Indians traded a no-name Double-A infielder (Joe Wendle) and landed Moss, who has the chance to be a really nice fit with the Indians. The best thing for both parties is probably that it gets him out of Oakland and the Oakland Coliseum, where he was terrible at the plate. In 70 games at Oakland last year, his triple-slash was .197/.299/.404 and in 77 games on the road it was .265/.364/.467. This is another example of a team that spent very little to get something decent in return. Moss is under team control until 2017 and will add potency to an offense that is already trending up. As for the Twins - Moss doesn't really address any of their needs as the Twins are already log-jammed at 1B and in the Outfield.

Josh Donaldson (3B)
Donaldson was traded from the Oakland As to the Blue Jays for Brett Lawrie, Kendall Graveman and Sean Nolin. This trade doesn't make a whole lot of sense, but there had been some mention of Donaldson not seeing eye-to-eye with Billy Beane so maybe there is more to this story. Donaldson has been one of the top 3rd basemen in baseball over the last two seasons whereas as Brett Lawie has been oft-injured and inconsistent so far in his career. Both players have 4-years of team control left and Billy Beane is a well-respected GM, so we'll give the benefit of the doubt to him for making this move. From the Twins standpoint, again, this wouldn't have made much sense for them. If you believe Miguel Sano is your future at 3B and that Sano is close to assuming that role, then there is no need for a guy like Donaldson. And besides, that's a lot to give up in a trade, even for a guy like Donaldson.

Yasmany Tomas (OF, possibly 3B)
This Cuban outfielder received a lot of hype prior to his signing and has been compared to Jose Abreu, last year's ROY in the American League. A lot of teams were interested in Tomas, but it was the Diamondbacks that ultimately won out, landing Tomas on a 6-year, $68.5MM deal. This one, like the Samardzija deal, really sticks in my craw. To me, landing this guy would have been a great move for the Twins. Granted, it would further muddle their outfield situation, but if they had taken the $10.5MM they are going to pay Hunter this season and instead, spent that money on Tomas, I would feel a whole lot better. Tomas has great potential and if he's anything like Abreu, that contract is going to be a STEAL. In my mind, the International market is a great place for the Twins. Unfortunately they were burned in their most public International move when they signed Nishioka and he turned out to be an epic bust. I don't know if they are just scared to sign International players or what, but the recent crop of International players has been pretty impressive with the likes of Abreu, Iwakuma, Cespedes, Puig, and Darvish (to name a few). Just imagine an outfield of Buxton, Tomas and Arcia for the next 5+ seasons...sounds pretty good doesn't it?

Andrew Miller (RP)
Miller signed with the Yankees as a free-agent on a 4-year, $36MM contract. I don't have much commentary on this trade. If there is one thing that Twins FO has been competent at in recent years, it is signing relievers. The Twins don't need a closer and 4-year contracts for relievers seem like a bad idea to me. Miller wasn't going to sign for less than a 4-year deal and it was reported that he had a 4-year, $40MM offer from the Astros in the case that the Yankees decided to pass.

Nick Markakis (OF)
Markakis signed a 4-year, $44MM deal with the Atlanta Braves. Again, not much commentary here. Markakis has been up and down over the past few years and while he seems to have some value in the field (Gold Glove winner in 2014), his hitting has been inconsistent and signing him wouldn't have necessarily been that much of an upgrade in the outfield for the Twins. With that being said, spending that $10.5MM on the 31-year-old Markakis could have made a lot more sense than spending it on Hunter. I have to keep reminding myself that Hunter is just a one-year thing.

**Markakis' battery-mate Nelson Cruz also signed a 4-year deal this off-season with the Mariners for $57MM. The same comments that I have about Markakis apply to that deal. Baltimore got one heck of a season out of Cruz for only $8MM.

Jason Heyward (OF) / Shelby Miller (SP)
This was definitely the blockbuster trade of the off-season so far. As much as I would love for the Twins to get either of these players...I don't think the Twins would have had anything to offer either the Braves or the Cardinals that would have come close to the likes of Heyward and Miller. The deal was great for the Braves in the sense that Miller is under team control until 2018. For the Cards, they get an excellent outfielder for at least this next season and could be fixing to sign Heyward to a long-term deal. They also received Jordan Walden from the Braves who is a pretty good set-up man.


Those are just a handful of the recent trades and signings in baseball. There had been a boatload of other far less sexy acquisitions. The only two that really bother me as a Twins fan are the Samardzija and Tomas deals. There are still a number of intriguing free-agents that the Twins could potentially be in on including: Brandon Beachy, Ervin Santana, Justin Masterson (probably not), Brett Anderson, Luke Gregorson, Josh Johnson, Francisco Liriano, Jed Lowrie, Brandon McCarthy, Jake Peavy, Johan Santana (?), Max Scherzer, Ryan Vogelson, Edison Volquez, and Rickie Weeks. Hey - Delmon Young is still available too!

Jason Heyward Has Arrived

The future is now.

I don't see the embed code, but watch it before MLB takes it down.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nS2TPOISrhg

**UPDATE, 5:59 PM:**
Here is the official MLB video highlight.  This one doesn't have a shaky camera, and you can hear the call, "Welcome to the show!" much better.  You can also see Jones and Heyward hug, which is pretty cool.  The only thing you miss is the reaction from his parents, which was awesome.

http://www.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=7282459

2010 Year In Preview: Atlanta Braves

As the season draws nigh, our march towards previewing every major league team continues.  Today, we look at the Atlanta Braves, the "always the bridesmaid, never the bride" team of the 1990s.  They're one of my favorite National League teams, and I thought they had a real chance at winning the NL East in 2009.  Can they improve in 2010?  Let's get to it. 

2009 Record: 86-76, 3rd place in the NL East, 7GB of the Phillies, 6GB of the Wild Card.  Did you know that the Marlins came in second last year?  I did not know that until right now.  Odd. 

Key Additions: Billy Wagner (signed as a FA for 1 yr, 7M), Takashi Saito (signed as FA for 1 yr, 3.2M), Melky Cabrera (trade with Yankees), LHP Mike Dunn (trade with Yankees), 1B Troy Glaus (signed as FA for 1 yr, $1.75M), UTIL and good-luck charm Eric Hinske (signed as FA), RHP Jesse Chavez (trade from Rays), RHP Scott Proctor (signed as MiL FA). 

Key Departures: RHP Javier Vazquez (trade with Yankees), LHP Boone Logan (trade with Yankees), LHP Mike Gonzalez (free agent, signed with Orioles), RHP Rafael Soriano (traded to Rays), 1B Adam LaRoche (free agent, signed with Diamondbacks), 2B Kelly Johnson (non-tendered, signed with Diamondbacks) , RF Ryan Church (non-tendered, signed with Pirates), OF Brandon Jones (claimed off waivers by Pirates), RHP Jorge Campillo (released, signed minor league deal with Royals), RHP Buddy Carlyle (released, signed with Japanese team), LF Garret Anderson (free agent, signed minor league deal with Dodgers), INF/OF Greg Norton (free agent, unsigned), RHP Vladimir Nunez (free agent, unsigned).

Snap, yo.  That's a lot of turnover.  The biggest move of the offseason for the Braves has to be the trade of Javier Vazquez to the Yankees.  In this trade, the Braves sent Vazquez and LHP Boone Logan to the Yankees in exchange for Melky Cabrera, LHP Mike Dunn, RHP Arodys Vizcaino and $500,000 in cash.  I'll profile Vizcaino below in the Talent En Route section.  This trade was about Atlanta clearing some payroll for the ostensible purpose of signing a power bat.  As you can see, they never quite got around to doing that. 

Honestly, the Braves continue to baffle me.  Javier Vazquez was the second-best pitcher in the National League last year, with apologies to Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright.  He had a reasonable contract at $11M in 2010, and he will be a Type A free agent at the end of the year.  They traded him for one good prospect and a bunch of spare parts.  Then they signed Tim Hudson, who is coming off TJ surgery, to a three year, 28M extension.  From the Braves perspective, I would much rather have seen them deal Derek Lowe, who is signed to a horrific deal, Kenshin Kawakami (2nd year of a 3yr, 21M deal) or simply decline the club option they had on Hudson.  From what I understood, they couldn't find any takers on Lowe and seem to be stuck with him for the foreseeable future. But had they declined the option on Hudson, their rotation would have been fantastic in 2010: Vazquez, Hanson, Jurrjens, Lowe and Kawakami.  

So, I don't get it, and it's frustrating.  But this frustration is mitigated by the force that is Jason Heyward.  Without further ado: 

Talent En Route

Jason Heyward.  If you haven't heard of him, you've been hiding under a rock for the past few months, so let me update you on the news: healthcare blah blah blah, Tiger Woods sent a bunch of nasty sexts, and Parks and Rec is the best show on TV right now. 

Heyward was ranked the #2 prospect in baseball by Baseball Prospectus, and some outlets have him as #1, ahead of Strasburg.  Whether he's 1 or 2 is immaterial; what's important is that we all step back and marvel at the greatness of Jason.  

Drafted straight out of high school with the 14th pick of the 1st round, Heyward put up a .854 OPS as an 18 year old in his first full season of professional ball at Low A and High A, showing the ability to hit for average and power while swiping 15 bags in 120 games. The following year, 2009, Heyward began the year in High A and earned a Double A callup midseason after posting a .296/.369/.519 line with 10 HR and 4 SB in 49 games.  Heyward apparently found Double A more to his liking, though, putting up a punishing .352/.446/.611 line with 13 homers and 5 SB in 47 games.  That boy be crazy. 

Braves fans and experts everywhere know that Heyward is special.  Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus lists his perfect world projection as a "game changing superstar".  He has the ability to hit for average, to take walks and get on base, and to absolutely crush the ball when he wants.  He has good speed, and a plus-plus arm.  Heyward is the full package. 

Heyward spent a ton of time in big league camp this year, which has some Braves fans clamoring for his inclusion on the major league roster at the outset of the season.  Honestly, it makes sense for the Braves to keep him in Triple A for the start of the year, minimizing his service time and maximizing the amount of time they'll have him as a cost-controlled talent.  Players like Heyward don't come around very often, and when they do clubs should hang on for dear life.  Regardless of what Atlanta decides, and I think they'll send him to AAA, we'll see Heyward in the bigs this year. 

Now it's time for me to hate on Baseball Prospectus for a moment.  As I noted above, Arodys Vizcaino was the major trade chip in the Vazquez deal with the Yankees.  Vizcaino was a favorite of mine when he was on the Yankees.  He was a raw product out of the Dominican Republic, and put up very good numbers in his first full year of work in Low A ball, albeit in a small sample of 42 innings.    

Yet, when Vizcaino was a Yankee, Goldstein ranked him a 4-star prospect on 12/22/09. Jesus Montero topped NYY's list with a 5 star ranking.  Then, a mere four weeks later though, after his trade to Atlanta, Goldstein ranked him a 5 star prospect, right next to 5 star Jason Heyward.  Additionally, Goldstein ranked Vizcaino the top pitching prospect in the Yankees' system, but put him behind Julio Teheran in Atlanta.  So, I'm a bit confused.  If Heyward is #2 on the top 101 list and Montero is #5, and if Vizcaino is the best pitching prospect for NY but only the second best for ATL, shouldn't he be, at very least, a 5-star in both?  Or, if "stars" are contingent upon organizational depth, wouldn't it make more sense to rate Vizcaino as a 5 star in NY's system, and a 4 star in Atlanta? Doing it the way Goldstein has done it, though, makes it look like Vizcaino became a better and more valuable prospect simply by virtue of getting traded to the Braves. 

That's the end of the rant on Vizcaino, but I think it's clear that Goldstein and BP need to come up with a better methodology for this arbitrary "star" ranking system.  Either make the number of 5 star rankings in the MLB static, or make them vary team-by-team and based on depth, or...something.  Seeing it fluctuate like this, seemingly with no reason, makes it hard to trust the reliability of the system.  

2011 Salary and Free Agency Outlook

I noticed that the projected 2010 payroll for the Braves is somewhere in the $80-85M range, which is noticeably lower than the payroll in 2009 and 2008 ($96M and $102M, respectively).  I asked Peter Hjort of Capitol Avenue Club whether it was reasonable to expect 2010 payroll to sit at around $85M, which is markedly below previous levels, and this was his response: 

The short version: 2009's payroll will be in the $85-90 million range and they should have at least a little bit of financial flexibility to add a piece mid season if needed

We may have more from Peter on Thursday about the Braves payroll, and if so, I'll write up another piece about the Braves and free agency then.  Suffice it to say for now that the Braves have managed to cut some salary and are positioned well for 2011.  They become even more flexible if one Chipper Jones retires, as he's scheduled to make $13M apiece in 2011 and 2012.  If that happens, their payroll (not including arbitration raises) drops to $43M. Budgeting around $7M in arbitration raises to Jair Jurrjens, Martin Prado, Yunel Escobar, Melky Cabrera and Matt Diaz, and the Braves payroll should be somewhere around $65M with Jones or $50M without him.  This could mean that the Braves become major players in free agency in 2011.

All five current members of their rotation are under contract for 2011, so I don't expect them to pursue a starter.  Even if Lowe is dealt or Kawakami or Hudson go down with injury again, the Braves have Kris Medlen and Jo-Jo Reyes waiting in the wings.  The Braves should also be set with their catcher (McCann), SS (Escobar), CF (McLouth) and RF (Heyward) in 2011.  Possible areas of improvement include LF, 3B (if Jones retires) and 1B.

Here's a wild idea: how about swinging a midseason trade for Lance Berkman?  As I noted in my 2010 Year in Preview: Houston Astros, the Astros may make Berkman available if (when) they fall out of contention and decide to cut costs and rebuild.  Assuming the Astros dealt him at the deadline, Atlanta would be on the hook for about $7M of his contract in 2010, and then could decide whether to keep him for 2011 for $15M or decline his option and see him leave via free agency.  Berkman does have a no trade clause, which complicates the picture a great deal.  He might want an extension, or he might want Atlanta to guarantee that they'll accept, or decline (I suppose) his option.  It's a long shot, but I love the idea for both teams, especially if Jones retires after 2010.  As an FYI, CHONE projects Berkman to a .277/.378/.500 line in 2010 with 27 HR.  This would be the highest OPS of anyone on the Braves.

The Future of the Braves

As always, I'm bullish on the Braves.  I'm absolutely crazy about their homegrown talent, and I think they've managed to position themselves well for free agency in 2011.  I wish they had dealt Lowe or Kawakami instead of Vazquez, but they'll still field a competitive team in 2010, one that should compete for the second spot in the division and be a wild card contender.  I thought 2009 was the year of the Braves in the NL East, and while I won't make the same prediction in 2010, I will say that most of the pieces are there for the Braves to continue to be a threat in the National League.  Which is more than I can say for the Cubs.