2010 Year in Preview: Los Angeles Dodgers

2009 Record: (95-67) 1st place in the NL West, Lost in the in NLCS to the Phillies

Key Additions:
The only player even worth mentioning in this section is OF Reed Johnson, which tells you about all you need to know about how active the Dodgers were this past offseason. With the ownership families mixed up in a fairly ugly divorce, it seems they weren't really able to focus on anything regarding the team.

Key Departures:
SP Randy Wolf (signed with the Brewers), OF Juan Pierre (signed with the White Sox)

Nothing too surprising here, the Dodgers have a nice mix of young talent (Kemp, Loney, Ethier) and veterans (Ramirez, Blake) so they really didn't need to do too much, nor are the losses of the above players all that huge. Even their pitching staff is decent, should Kershaw and Billingsley really start to dominate.


Talent En Route:
There are two prospects in the Dodger farm-system that are ranked 5-stars by Baseball Prospectus, the BatShatters official source for Prospect information.

Dee Gordon SS - at 22-years old, Dee is probably still two years away from being on the big league roster, but if he can continue on the pace he set last year (.301/.362/.394 in 131Gs at Low-A), it could be sooner. The problem is that his position at the big-league level is currently held by Rafael Furcal, and he's unlikely to be going anywhere soon. There has been talk of turning Gordon into a center-fielder to pave his path to the big leagues, but as of now no position change has been made. He's extremely fast (stole 73 bases last year), with good hand-eye coordination and some decent power potential as well. Keep an eye on this kid over the next couple of seasons, especially since scouts have called him a "Jimmy Rollins starter kit."

Chris Withrow RHP - (1st round draft pick in 2007) Withrow's pitch is the fastball which is consistently in the 93-95 range and tops out in the upper-90's. He has had health problems in the past which have hindered his development, and has also suffered from bouts of over-throwing which lead to higher walk rates. All that said, the fastball is electric and BP has him projected as a 2nd starter or possibly even a closer (due to his lack of a solid secondary pitch). He'll start this season at Double-A, it's hard to say what the timetable would be for his first crack at The Show.


2011 Free Agency & Salary Outlook:
The two biggest names coming up for free-agency in 2011 for the Dodgers will be LF Manny Ramirez and SP Hiroki Kuroda. Manny will be 39 next year and though I imagine there will be some interest in him, I can't imagine anyone will be banging down the doors to sign him to anything more than a 2-year deal and it's hard to say whether the Dodgers would be the #1 suitor or not. As far as Kuroda goes, that could be a different story, he's going to be 36, but has pitched fairly well in 2 big-league seasons to this point (injured part of last year). On the one hand, I could see the Dodgers resigning Kuroda during the year this season, but on the other hand, at 36 he probably doesn't have many years left. His original deal was 3 years/$35M+ and if they did something similar to that, maybe 3 years/$30M, it would make sense, particularly if you consider they have Chad Billingsley locked up through 2012 and Clayton Kershaw locked up through 2014.

With the Dodger payroll sitting around $102M this year and being north of $100M the past 4 seasons, they could be looking at some money to spend if they want to stay at that level. At this point, they have $61M committed for next year, but they will be losing the $20M/yr. salary of Ramirez and the $15.3M salary of Kuroda. As I mentioned above, they may resign Kuroda which would like take up $10-$15M of that available money, and they do have quite a few arbitration-eligible players, but they could easily have $15-$20M to play with to land a big free-agent. That said, I'd look for the Dodgers to be bigger free-agency players this coming offseason than they were this past offseason.

The Future of the Los Angeles Dodgers:
I would be remiss if I didn't mention that this year is particularly special for the Dodgers in that it is the last season that the legendary Vin Scully will be calling games. He has been calling games for an astounding 61 years for the Dodgers and it will definitely be a big change when he's gone. If you've never heard Scully call a game, you really are missing out, along with Uecker in Milwaukee, they are the only two broadcasters who call the games alone. Scully has such a vast knowledge of the game, it's very interesting to listen to him. But I digress.

The rest of the future of the Dodgers really hinges on the outcome of the ugly divorce that is currently happening within the ownership. If everything is resolved by this coming off-season and the team wants to maintain that $100M+ payroll, they could be big players, surrounding the young nucleus of talent they have with even more pieces. If they don't spend the money, I still think this team is in pretty good shape for another year or two, but eventually they are going to start having to lock up some of this young talent like Matt Kemp, James Loney, Clayton Kershaw, Andre Ethier, Jonathan Broxton, and Chad Billingsley. That's going to cost some money...a lot of money.

2010 Year in Preview: San Diego Padres

We're gonna finish these before it becomes 'Year in RE-view', I promise.

2009 Record: (75-87); 4th place NL West; 20GB the Los Angeles Dodgers

Key Additions:
The Padres were mildly active this off-season under the direction of brand-new GM Jed Hoyer, the former assistant GM with the Boston Red Sox. The acquired 3 recognizable names; SP Jon Garland, INF Jerry Hairston Jr., and C Yorvit Torrealba.

None of these guys are going to make the Padres into a contender and apart from Garland, they would struggle to get a starting spot with most teams. To me the most interesting off-season change for the Padres is adding Hoyer who, at one time, was the GM of the Red Sox before Theo Epstein took over. We'll see what Hoyer can do with a minuscule budget, my guess is he'll struggle...that is unless Padres ownership loosens the pocketbook a little.

Key Departures:
The Padres lost quite a few players in the off-season, but none of them are key so let's just cover the few names anyone would recognize.

3B Kevin Kouzmanoff (signed by the Oakland Athletics); OF Brian Giles (retired, recently charged with battery); C Henry Blanco (signed by the New York Mets)

Like I said, nothing key here, Kouzmanoff was probably the most recognizable Padre, but he wasn't producing anything they'll miss.

Talent En Route:
Three prospects deserve mention within the Padres system, though all 3 of them are realistically a year or two away from being major-league ready.

Donavan Tate OF - (1st round draft pick, 2009 draft) Tate was selected 3rd by the Padres last year and received a club-record $6.25M signing bonus, the highest bonus ever paid to a high-school draftee. He proceeded to develop an injury similar to sports hernia that required surgery and then broke his jaw in an ATV accident, all of which prevented him from making his pro debut last season. Tate was a two-sport athlete in high-school, excelling in both football and baseball. He is the son of former NFL player Lars Tate and all the projections point to great things for him. Baseball Prospectus wrote the following about him:

"No player in the 2009 draft could match Tate in terms of athleticism. His raw power and speed rate as well above average, giving him true 30/30 potential, and possibly even more. He's a very good center fielder now with the possibility of turning into an impact defender, and his arm is yet another plus tool."

Simon Castro RHP - (signed out of the Dominican Republic in 2006) Castro had his first full season last year, playing a Low-A ball and starting 28 games. He wowed with 157Ks in 141IP while compiling a 3.33ERA. Castro's feature pitch is a fastball that consistently hits 96mph, but his continued success will depend on his ability to develop a complimentary pitch, which at this point, he does not possess. He'll start this season at High-A ball and it's unlikely that he cracks the major leagues until 2011, if that.

James Darnell 3B - (2nd round draft pick, 2008 draft) in his first full season Darnell performed very well, hitting .311/.424/.536 showing both power and patience at the plate. The downside for Darnell is not a lack of offense, but rather below-average defense and an inaccurate arm. Darnell eventually projects to be a right or left fielder because of the inaccuracy, but if he keeps hitting at the pace he established last year, it will be impossible to keep him out of the lineup. At any rate, he's only played as high as High-A ball, so it's going to be a year or two.

2011 Salary and Free Agency Outlook:
FIRE SALE!! Unless the Padres organization has a sudden change in modus operandi, there will be one major free-agent that will be leaving their organization, and likely this year or next. His name is Adrian Gonzalez and if he didn't play in San Diego, he would be a star 1st baseman. He's a two-time Gold-glove winner and two-time All Star and despite ZERO protection in the San Diego lineup, he has hit 30+ HRs and driven in 100+ runs for the last 3 years straight. His price tag will certainly be high, and maybe he doesn't move this year as the club has an option for 2011, but he will move sometime and the Padres will get much in return. Aside from him, SP Kevin Correia, uber-hustler INF David Eckstein and recently acquired INF Jerry Hairston Jr. are all free-agents this coming off-season. Correia is probably the only worth keeping because he's young, but with a new GM, it's hard to say what the Padres will do.
As far as salary goes, the Padres high-water mark for team payroll in the last 10 years is $73M in 2008. In 2009, it dropped to $43M which was good for 29th in the league. Like I said to start this thing out, unless the ownership loosens up some money, this team will not be able to compete.

The Future of the San Diego Padres:
Aside from some young talent such as recently drafted Donavan Tate or young stud-pitcher Mat Latos, there isn't much to be excited for as a Padres fan. You're going to lose Adrian Gonzalez whether it's this year or next, your minor league talent is still a couple of years away, and though you have a young, mildly exciting pitching staff, there's no offense to support them, not to mention Petco Park is an airport that is hard to hit a ball out of. I feel like a team that plays in the paradise that is San Diego should be more of a contender. You have the population to support the team, consistently beautiful weather, and NO EXCUSES. The Padres could really build on the base of young, talented pitchers they have, add some offensive pieces and be contenders within a couple of years, but that would require some serious investment on the part of Padres ownership which, to this point, they have shown no wont to do.

2010 Year in Preview: Arizona Diamondbacks

When you think "Arizona Diamondbacks", what comes to mind?  Randy Johnson?  Curt Schilling? Justin Upton?  Yusmeiro Petit?  The D'Backs have been around since 1998 and were an almost instant success,  winning three NL West titles in 1999, 2001 and 2002, and winning the World Series in 2001.  Since then they've had mixed results, never reaching the World Series again.  Maybe it's because I'm a Yankees fan, I don't know, but when I think DBacks I think of Luis Gonzalez leaping in joy as the Diamondbacks won the World Series, walkoff style.

Ugh.  I enjoyed your post-steroidal dropoff, Luis, and I'm looking forward to Justin Upton becoming the face of the franchise for the next six years.   

Key Departures

Eric Byrnes, scrap scrap scrap scrap scrap scrap scrap DFA,  Doug Davis, signed with Milwaukee, Max Scherzer and Daniel Schlereth, traded to Tigers. 

Key Additions

Received Aaron Heilman in trade with Cubs, received RHP Edwin Jackson and RHP Ian Kennedy from Tigers and Yankees, respectively, exercised the one year, $8.5M option on RHP Brandon Webb, signed 1B Adam LaRoche to a one year, $6M deal, signed the DFA'd Kelly Johnson to a one year, $2.35M deal, signed RP Bob Howry to a one year, $2.25M deal.  Signed RF and Force of Nature Justin Upton to a six year, $51.25M extension, signed 3B Mark Reynolds to a three year, $14.5M extension with an $11M club option for 2013, signed RHP Edwin Jackson to a two year, $13.35M extension. 

Talent En Route

The Diamondbacks farm system is a bit thin on talent.  The top prospect is RHP Jarrod Parker, whom you can find on Twitter here.  Parker was the Diamondbacks first-round pick in 2007.  Drafted straight out of high school, Parker had a sparkling debut in A ball as a 19 year old, throwing 117 IP and striking out 117 batters while walking only 33.  His ERA was 3.44, which almost masks how excellent the peripherals were (9.0 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, 3.55 K/BB, 1.241 WHIP.  As you can see, Parker has great control.  His ERA and his WHIP (1.241) suggest then that he was too hittable at times.  This diagnosis was confirmed by BP's Kevin Goldstein: 

"Parker can be more hittable than his stuff should allow for, as he tends to throw his fastball not only for strikes, but down the middle too often."

 Parker began his 2009 campaign in High A, where he dominated in a short stint with a 0.95 ERA (19, 12, 4, 21).  He was then promoted to Double A, where he posted a 3.68 ERA over 78 innings, striking out 74, walking 34 and allowing 82 hits. His WHIP was a career high 1.481, inflated by a career high in H/9 (9.4) and BB/9 (3.9).  His K/9 (8.5) and K/BB (2.18) were also career lows.  All things considered, this was a solid start to the season even if he was still a tad too hittable and was walking more batters than before.  His K rate was still decent (8.5), and he was only 20 years old. 


Unfortunately, Parker was injured midway through the year and required Tommy John surgery.  He is scheduled to miss all of 2010.  If he returns strong, we could see him shoot up the 2011 prospect lists and crack the bigs in late 2011 or early 2012. In the meantime, Parker will continue rehabbing and blogging about it at Parker's Pitch.  Parker wrote this the day after his surgery:  

Everything went well yesterday during and after the procedure! I struggled to get comfortable last night with a cast on my right arm and my left leg wrapped in a brace. The reason my leg was in a brace was because they used a graft from that leg to repair the ucl in my right arm. 

 He also commented on a typical rehab day at the facilities:

Following the whirlpool treatment I start my wrist and elbow stretching and range of motioin exercises. These usually can be done on my own but when I'm finished our training staff wants to see my progression and they help me get more movement. An important thing that people quickly forget is how crucial it is keeping your shoulder strong throughtout all this. This week was the first week I was able to start moving my leg more freely, I was able to get on the bike and loosen my knee and hamstring up. We have been focusing a lot on the small stuff and there are some new things we add to my program daily, which I love cause I am always willing to try new exercises and get better.

Interesting stuff.  Parker will be one to watch in 2011.  Another name to watch is 1B Brandon Allen, who will begin the year in AAA.  Allen is 6'2", 235 lb right-handed hitter that the DBacks acquired from the White Sox in exchange for reliever Tony Pena.  In 2008 he knocked 29 home runs in 539 PAs between High A and Double A for the White Sox, posting a line of .278/.367/.555.  He began 2009 as a 23 year old in Doulbe A Birmingham for the White Sox and performed adequately, 7 HR in 274 PAs with a tripleslash of .290/.372/.452.  He was then promoted for 15 games to Triple A Charlotte, before getting dealt to the DBacks, who assigned him to Triple A Reno.  In Reno, the biggest little city in the world and home of Lieutenant Dangle, Allen raked, hitting .324/.413/.641 and clubbing 12 home runs in 167 PAs.  However, Reno is a notorious hitters' park, and the offensive stats are inflated.  Perhaps this is why the DBacks signed Adam LaRoche to a 1 year, 4.5M deal.  Clearly they want Allen to take more time to develop his power stroke in Triple A.  


2011 Free Agency and Salary Outlook 
The Diamondbacks enter 2010 with around $71M committed to their payroll, which is slightly down from their Opening Day number in 2009 of $73M.  In 2011, they have $43M committed to payroll, not factoring in arbitration raises.  The Diamondbacks have $14.2M coming off the payroll in Brandon Webb ($8M), Chad Qualls ($4.2M) and Aaron Heilman ($2M), which bumps it down to around $58.2M.  How then does it drop to $43M, you ask?  Weeeell, the Diamondbacks are paying $14.7M in 2010 to players that are no longer on their team.  Eric Byrnes, whom they DFAd and is playing for the Mariners, is getting $11.2M, Jon Garland is getting $2.5M and Chad Tracy is getting $1M.  Add it all up, and you've got a 2011 payroll of $43M. 


Thankfully for the Diamondbacks, $43M includes the hefty raises that will go to their core talent.  Haren will  be getting a bump from $8.25M to $12.8, Mark Reynolds will be going from $800K to $5.3M, and The Force of Nature that is The Justin Upton will be going from $700K to $4.4M, as a part of his 6 year, $50M extension that will prove to be worth EVERY PENNY.  Now, $43M will rise as Stephen Drew, Conor Jackson, Kelly Johnson, Miguel Montero, and Augie Ojeda get arbitration raises.  Let's tack on an additional $10M for those players.

So the Diamondbacks will move into the winter of 2011 with a payroll in the neighborhood of $55M, which may give them at least $15M to spend.  Where are their holes?

C - Miguel Montero - only in second year of arbitration eligiblity
1B - Adam LaRoche - club option for 2011 or call up Brandon Allen
2B - Kelly Johnson in third year of arbitration eligiblity
SS - Stephen Drew in second year of arbitration eligibility
3B - Mark Reynolds signed through 2012
LF - Conor Jackson in third year of arbitration eligibility
CF - Chris Young signed through 2013 (gulp)
RF - Justin Upton signed through 2015(!)

SP 1 - Dan Haren signed through 2012 with 2013 club option
SP 2 - Edwin Jackson signed through 2011
SP 3 - Ian Kennedy not even arbitration eligible yet

The Diamondbacks will be in pursuit of some help for the rotation and for the back end of the bullpen.  If Qualls works out, I wouldn't be surprised to see them attempt to resign him quickly.  In the rotation, the Diamondbacks are hoping that Webb can regain his 2008 form.  Either way, I wouldn't be surprised to see him rejoin the team in 2011, probably at a discounted rate. This will leave the Diamondbacks with enough money to pursue a free agent SP.  Possible targets could include Bronson Arroyo, Kevin Correia, Chad Gaudin, Hiroki Kuroda or Kevin Millwood.  I would be surprised to see them make a run at a more expensive pitcher like Cliff Lee or Javier Vazquez.

The Future of the Diamondbacks
A lot needs to go right for the Diamondbacks to compete in 2010.  They need Brandon Webb to be healthy. They need Edwin Jackson to have a relatively good year, although not as good as he had in the first half of the year with the Tigers (which wasn't really that good, if you look at his xFIP).  They also need some help from guys like Ian Kennedy and Rodrigo Lopez.  On the offensive side, the D'Backs have a very nice core of talent in Montero, Reynolds and Upton.  If some of the group of Johnson, LaRoche, Jackson or Young could put it together and have a solid year, the Diamondbacks could be contenders in the weak NL West.  If they flounder, the Diamondbacks will go down very quickly and will have some tough decisions to make about 2011.  Dan Haren and Justin Upton are world-class players.  The question is, both now and in the coming years, how good the Diamondbacks front office will be at filling out the roster behind them.  I'm cautiously optimistic, but they'll have to be very shrewd.

2010 Year in Preview: New York Yankees

It's odd.  I'm ready for baseball to come back.  I miss it, and I'm really looking forward to 2010.  But it's bittersweet, in a way.  It's good to be on top, it's good to be the champs, it's good to know that we are the best and that every team, especially Boston, has to deal with that reality for an entire year.  I'm looking forward to 2010, but 2009 left the sweetest taste in my mouth and I'm not yet ready to let go.   


2009 Season: 





Oh my.  It doesn't get much better than that.  I love the ARod taunting before the pitch, the lull at 0:09 and the way all the hands in the joint go up in the air as mayhem descends on the stadium.  I think I should watch it again, maybe from a different angle.










New York Yankees.  103-59.  AL East Champs.  Swept the Twins in the ALDS.  Defeated the Angels 4-2 in the ALCS.  Defeated the Phillies 4-2 in the World Series to win their 27th World Series title.


Key Departures: 
LF Johnny Damon departed after a long, soap-operatic tango with the Yankees and signed with the Tigers.  DH Hideki Matsui signed with the Angels.  C Jose Molina signed with the Blue Jays.  Phil Coke, LHP and Austin Jackson, CF were traded to the Tigers and RHP Ian Kennedy was traded to the Diamondbacks in the Curtis Granderson deal. Traded CF Melky Cabrera, RHP Arodys Vizcaino and LHP Mike Dunn to the Braves in the Javier Vazquez deal. 


Key Additions: 
Signed 1B/DH Nick Johnson to a 1 year, $5.5M deal with a mutual option for 2011 for $5.5M, acquired CF Curtis Granderson in a trade with the Tigers and Diamonbacks, acquired RHP Javier Vazquez in a trade with the Braves.  

Talent En Route: 
In a way, the discussion of the Yankees' talent en route begins and ends with Jesus Montero.  Montero is a consensus Top 10 Prospect in all of baseball, with some lists placing him as high as 3rd or 4th.  We followed Montero's season all last year here on The Bat Shatters, but let's recap for a moment, shall we?


Montero is a 6'4", 225 lb, 20 year old catcher from Venezuela.  As an 18 year old in Low-A Charleston, Montero hit .326/.376/.491, clubbing 17 home runs and 34 doubles in 569 plate appearances.  By any and all standards, this is a stunning debut.  Montero showed the ability to hit for average, get on base, and hit for power at an extremely young age. 


The following year, Montero began the year in High-A Tampa, and in 198 plate appearances hit 8 home runs and 15 doubles, posting a line of .356/.406/.583.  He was then promoted to Double-A Trenton midseason, and showed that he was able to punish better pitching at a similar rate, hitting 9 home runs and 10 doubles in 181 PAs, good for a line of .317/.370/.539.  His season was ended prematurely when he broke his finger when he was hit by a pitch. 


There aren't enough superlatives for Montero's hitting ability.  He is showing an extraordinary ability to dominate minor league pitching at a very young age and might be the best pure hitting prospect in all of baseball.  Scouts have compared him to Miguel Cabrera and Frank Thomas.  The latter comparison seems particularly fitting when you see how both hit off their front foot.


The knock on Montero, and this has been discussed ad nauseum, is that scouts doubt his ability to stick behind the plate long-term.  He isn't particularly quick to release his throws, his blocking ability is average at best, and he's gigantic.  But, as many have said, his bat is so good that it doesn't matter where you put him on the diamond.  I have to imagine that if he showed at least average defensive ability he would be a contender for the best prospect in baseball.


Montero is slated to begin the year at Triple-A Scranton.  The plan is for him to get a full year of work in at catcher, and the soonest Yankees' fans will probably see him is in September when rosters expand.  I expect Montero to make the team out of Spring Training in 2011.  There's no clear open position for him, since Posada will still be under contract, but I expect the Yankees to have him split time between C and DH.  His bat is so good, it doesn't really matter where he plays.

2011 Free Agency and Salary Outlook 
I already covered the offseason potential scenarios over at The Yankee U a few weeks ago, so I'm going to quote myself liberally here. 

"Thanks to the invaluable tool at Cot’s Baseball Contracts, we see that New York already has $144M committed to the 2011 payroll. When you add my proposed $20M to Jeter and $15M to Rivera, and the payroll is already at $179M. From there, you have to factor in raises for Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes, who will become eligible for arbitration for the first time. Using Liriano as a comparison, it won’t be unexpected to see them both pull in $1.5M apiece. This bumps the payroll up to $182M, and I’m going to round it up to $183M to cover raises for Boone Logan, if he’s still around, and for the pre-arb guys like DRob, Aceves and others.  

With a budget of $183M, the Yankees will have, at the most, $17-27M to spend."

The most obvious holes in the 2011 roster are starting pitching and LF. Since I penned my post at The Yankee U, the Yankees' FO put Joba in the bullpen for 2010 and put Hughes in the rotation.  The Twins also signed Joe Mauer to an 8 year, 180M deal and there was much rejoicing.  Thus, I'm going to rework my Scenarios a bit differently this time, focusing on Andy Pettitte.   


If Andy Pettitte retires...
If Pettitte retires, then the Yankees have three starters under contract for 2011: Sabathia, Burnett and Hughes.  If they choose to move Joba back to the rotation, they it would be most logical to assume that they would pursue Lee or Vazquez.  If they leave Joba in the pen, then they might be forced to go with Vazquez and a bargain-bin starter, or sign Lee and use Zach McAllister in the fifth spot. 


If Andy Pettitte returns...
If Pettitte returns on a deal similar to this year's contract (1 yr, 11M), then the Yankees have four starters under contract for 2011: Sabathia,  Burnett, Hughes and Pettitte, and a payroll of around $194M.  In this scenario, they could try to pursue Cliff Lee and max out their payroll.  This would leave them unable to pursue Crawford.  They could also shift Chamberlain back to the rotation for the fifth spot, leaving them with more than enough money to pursue Crawford. 


In all of these scenarios, several things are apparent.  Firstly, the Yankees do not seem likely to sign both Lee and Crawford.  Secondly, having Chamberlain in the rotation affords them far more roster flexibility. Keeping him in the pen is going to mean more money committed to the rotation.  Finally, the Yankees 2011 payroll is already extremely high.  Sadly, I think that Joba will be in the bullpen for the long haul and that the Yankees will need two more starters for 2011.  I'm a Cliff Lee fan, so I'd really love to see them resign Pettitte and ink Lee to a deal.  Having Lee would give the Yankees a ridiculous rotation (Sabathia-Lee-Burnett-Pettitte-Hughes), and it would give them a hedge against the risk of Sabathia exercising his opt-out clause and leaving for some place like San Francisco or Anaheim.  


The Future of the Yankees
The immediate future of the Yankees is very good.  They will field a team that is, on paper, superior to last year's World Series Champion.  They have an extraordinary prospect in Jesus Montero, and several very good prospects in Zach McAllister and Austin Romine. They have a savvy GM who is able to make smart moves free from sentimentality or pressure from ownership.  They have an exceptional pitching staff and some of the best players in the game. The risks with the Yankees in 2010 and beyond is that age and injuries will catch up with them, and that their exorbitant salary commitments in the next five years will prove burdensome.  But for now, Yankee haters everywhere need to fear the rise of another New York Yankee dynasty.  


In the words of Leon from Curb Your Enthusiasm, "Let's do it, baby!"

2010 Year in Preview: Boston Red Sox

If there is anything that Yankees fans and Twins fans (at least this one anyway) can agree upon, it's that we hate the Red Sox. Yankees' fans have an edge on the hate-scale, but the rest of us baseball fans don't lack reasons either, just play that damn "Sweet Caroline" song and 95% of us will roll our eyes while the other 5% just cover their ears because Neil Diamond sucks. However, I digress... Yes, the Red Sox look like they will be contenders once again this year, let's dive in.

2009 Record: (95-67), 2nd place AL East, 8GB the New York Yankees

Key Departures:
Boston made A LOT of moves in the off-season, I'll list them and provide some brief discussion, snide comments, etc...

LF Jason Bay (free-agent signed with the Mets), RP Billy Wagner (traded to the New York Mets), RP Takashi Saito (free-agent signed with the Braves), OF Rocco Baldelli (now a base-running coach for the Rays), OF Brian Anderson (non-tendered, signed with the Royals), 1B Casey Kotchman (traded to the Mariners)

There are certainly big names here, headlined by Jason Bay's departure, but the Red Sox seem to have countered their losses with additions and by moving some players around. For example, Ellsbury will move to left to replace Bay which is certainly an upgrade defensively, though the Sox will definitely miss Bay's bat. They didn't do much to shore up their bullpen, but the Okajima to Papelbon bridge is still intact so the will only really have to find reliability for a inning or two in there.

Key Additions:
SP John Lackey (free-agent signing from the Angels), CF Mike Cameron (free-agent signing from the Brewers), SS Marco Scutaro (free-agent signing from the Jays), 3B Adrian Beltre (free-agent signing from the Mariners)

The Sox added about $120M in payroll obligations between these 4 players and I think they will see some benefit. Lackey is a marked improvement over Brad Penny and Scutaro/Beltre are significant defensive upgrades. I still don't think the Red Sox will take 1st place in the division, but they seem to be changing their strategy a little and moving away from the power-hitting club they have been for the last several years. Their team will be very good defensively, that is for sure, with two gold-glovers in the infield and 3-time gold-glover Mike Cameron patrolling center field.

Talent En Route:
One the one hand, the talent within the farm system of the Red Sox is very young and on the other hand, that's a good thing because as a team, they are not very old so there is plenty of time to let this talent develop. According to Baseball Prospectus, there are 2 Sox prospects that are ranked 5-stars and another couple who are ranked 4-stars. I'll go in depth into the two top prospects and say a little about the other two.

Ryan Westmoreland (OF) - drafted in the 5th round of the 2008 draft; Westmoreland was drafted out of high school, immediately had shoulder surgery and just made his pro debut last year playing for the Red Sox short-season team. He's still very young and quite raw, but BP says he could have Grady Sizemore-esque skills eventually. He has some power, hits for average and has plus speed that allowed him to steal 19/19 bags last year in short-season ball. Westmoreland is still a few years away yet, but look out for this rising star.

Casey Kelly (RHP) - drafted in the 1st round of the 2008 draft; the interesting thing about Casey Kelly is that he is a RHP and ALSO a hitter (SS). Since drafting him, the Red Sox have spent much more time developing his arm and last year in 17 starts between Low-A and High-A, he had a 2.08 ERA in 95IP with 74Ks and 16BB. Even more impressive was his start against the Rays a couple of days ago in Spring Training where he allowed 2 runs in 3 innings, with 4Ks and 2BB. For a guy who's only pitched as high as High-A ball, that's impressive stuff. Red Sox recent addition Bill Hall was told after the game that Kelly had spent half of last season playing shortstop and Hall said, "That kid? C'mon... He was a shortstop? Impressive. He's going to be back here pretty soon."

The other two prospects that deserve mention are OFers Josh Reddick and Ryan Kalish. Both of these guys were drafted in the 2006 draft and both are still in need of a little more minor-league work before they are MLB-ready. Reddick is a power-hitting lefty-hitter who was humming along at Double-A last only to struggle mightily between Triple-A and 27 Major-League games. Reddick will be starting this season at Triple-A, but with the crowded outfield that the Red Sox have now (Drew, Cameron, Ellsbury) it may take some time, or an injury, until he gets another shot. As for Kalish, he spent most of last season at Double-A (103Gs) and hit for a respectable .271/.341/.440 line. At 6'1", 205lbs, he's quite big for an OFer, a concern that the Sox share in terms of his speed and overall range. Like Reddick, Kalish' path to the major leagues is somewhat blocked right now, but if he can perform well in Triple-A this season he could burst onto the scene in 2011.

2011 Free Agency and Salary Outlook:
With the news that the Red Sox are close on an extension for Josh Beckett, the Sox really only have a contract for Victor Martinez to worry about in terms of free-agency for next year. Aside from Martinez, Mike Lowell will be a free-agent next year, but the Sox have already been trying to deal him to the Rangers for most of this past off-season. Beyond that, their free-agent in 2012 will consist of Jonathan Papelbon, David Ortiz, Mike Cameron and J.D. Drew and considering the emerging outfield talent they have, it's unlikely that the Red Sox will work too hard to re-sign a couple of aging veterans. As for Ortiz, technically he is a free-agent after this season, but the club has an option for 2011 which, barring a terrible offensive year from Ortiz, I imagine they'll pick up. I don't see them re-signing the fan-favorite Ortiz after that considering he'll be 35, but if he rediscovers his bat here in the next season or two, they might consider a short-term deal.

As far as team payroll goes, the Red Sox remain in the Top 5 in all of baseball, a level they will likely have to maintain if they want to continue to compete in year-in, year-out in the AL East. Their 2009 payroll was right around $123M and this year it will balloon to around $165M, mostly on the shoulders of the off-season talent they brought in.

The Future of the Boston Red Sox:

Simply put, with Theo Epstein at the helm, an ownership that is not tight on the money front, and a middle-of-the-road-and-getting-better farm system, the Red Sox look to be contenders for years to come. Epstein has proven to be a shrewd GM; yes, he's spoiled, but you can't knock the dude's ability to make the move that brings in the player they need. The biggest asset that the Red Sox have right now is their bevy of young talent in the likes of Ellsbury, Pedroia, Youkilis, Lester and Buchholz. This core of young talent, surrounded by a cast of solid veterans and backed up by some up-and-coming minor-leaguers ensures that the Red Sox will be relevant for at least another 5 years. They will certainly have the money since they've been, and will continue to, selling out the stadium for every game.
The fact that the Red Sox will compete for the next few years is not all that bad. I mean, for one, I love that the Yankees/Red Sox rivalry is competitive and interesting. For another, it's always nice to have someone/some team to hate and I love hating the Red Sox.

2010 Year in Preview: Baltimore Orioles

The Orioles are one of those teams you kinda have to have some pity for. They have the budget of a small market team in the midst of an absolutely LOADED AL East, and for all the prospective talent they have, you have to wonder if they will be able to legitimately compete when the payrolls of their competition (Yankees and Red Sox) are 3 times as large. As I mentioned however, they do have some fairly exciting young talent that they may be able to build upon soon.

As a side-note while we're on the topic of Baltimore, if you've never watched the HBO Series "The Wire," you're missing out. "The Wire" takes place in Baltimore and is one of the best TV series ever produced (in this author's humble opinion). Just a word of warning: It's not the faint of heart.

2009 Record: (64-98), last place, 39GB the Division and World Champion New York Yankees

Key Departures:

3B Melvin Mora (free agent signed with Colorado), RP Chris Ray (Traded to the Rangers)

Melvin Mora is only a big name in that he played 3rd base for the Orioles for the past 10 years. He's 38 years old and probably nearing the end of his career. I'm not close with the beat of Orioles fans so I have no idea if his departure has been met with sadness or not, but he has certainly been a figure since Cal Ripken Jr. retired in 2001. As for Chris Ray, he was not much of a force with the Orioles, and I don't think they lost much here.

Key Arrivals:
RP Mike Gonzalez (free agent signing from the Braves), 1B Garrett Atkins (free agent signing from Colorado), SS Miguel Tejada (free agent signing from the Astros), SP Kevin Millwood (trade from the Rangers)

These are fairly significant signings in the sense that all of these players will play big roles for the Orioles. Gonzalez will be the closer this year, Akins the starting 1st baseman, Tejada the starting Shortstop (a change for him as he has been a 3rd baseman up until now) and Millwood will be the Orioles Opening Day starter. Millwood has an especially important role considering that he will be looked to as the veteran of a very young pitching staff that features 2nd-year pitcher Brad Bergesen and rookies Brian Matusz and Chris Tillman, all of whom are quite talented.

Talent En Route: 

This is where the Orioles really shine. They have some top talent that is either ripe for the picking now or will be soon. There are four prospects in their system that deserve mention.

Brian Matusz (LH SP) - Matusz will be in the rotation at the beginning of this season, likely in the 3rd spot behind Millwood and Guthrie. Matusz saw some brief action towards the end of last year, pitching in 8 games and compiling a 4.63 ERA in 44+ innings with 38Ks. Drafted in the 1st round of the 2008 draft, Matusz made it as high as Double-A ball last year before the Orioles called him up. In the minors he had been tearing it up with sub-two ERAs and better than a 9K/9 ratio at 2 stops. It might take a season for this kid to get truly comfortable, but as a lefty with a low-90s fastball and excellent control, it won't be long before he's dominating.

Josh Bell (3B) - Drafted in the 4th round of the 2005 draft by the Dodgers and traded to the Orioles last year as part of the George Sherrill deal, Bell has blossomed into an exciting 3B with major potential to land a starting job with the Orioles here either this season or next. In 33 games at Double-A (post trade to the Orioles) he hit for a .289/.346/.570 line displaying the excellent power he had been developing within the Dodgers organization. This past off-season, the Orioles declined the option to Melvin Mora, paving a pretty clear path for Bell either later this season or next.

Jake Arrieta (RH SP) - Arrieta will be starting this season at Triple-A, but according to Baseball Prospectus, Arrieta possesses one of the best fastballs in the Orioles system, topping out around 96mph and consistently hitting 92-94mph. The problem with Arrieta, and what will likely prevent him from cracking the Majors until next season, is that his other pitches are not that great. This inevitably makes him predictable and in the 2nd half last year, he struggled at Triple-A. If he further develops his secondary pitches, he could become yet another of the young, exciting starters that the Orioles have.

Zach Britton (LH SP) - Drafted out of a Texas high-school in 2006, Britton pitched 140 innings at High-A last year with a 2.70ERA, 55BB and 131Ks. What scouts like about Britton is the action on his sinker, which some have said is the best sinker in the Orioles system. Britton is not likely to break into the Majors this year because he still has quite a bit of developing to do, but come 2011 or 2012, he could be a force.

2011 Free Agency and Salary Outlook:

When I think of the Orioles I think Brian Roberts and Nick Markakis...oh and Matt Wieters. So, in terms of these three 'faces of the franchise', Roberts is locked up through the 2013 season, Markakis is locked up through the 2014 season and Wieters is still in line for a rookie contract. In other words, the Orioles have locked up some of their core talent so far and can start building around that. The only notable names they'll lose moving forward through the next two season are Millwood, Tejada, and Gonzalez, all of whom they brought on this year. I could see them re-signing Gonzalez, but Millwood and Tejada are just place-holders until some younger talent develops a little further (Bell and another of their pitching prospects). This team is young and getting younger and I don't see them being active too active in the free agency/trade market until they have a little better understanding of what they have.

The Future of the Baltimore Orioles:

You know, having done this write-up, I'm feeling a little more optimistic about the Orioles. The biggest factor in my mind is the maturation of their young pitching talent. Between Matusz, Tillman, Bergesen, and Arrieta, they should have at least a couple of solid starters emerge and if three of the four pan out, they could be looking at a cheap, young rotation for the next few years. That would allow them to build around the offensive pieces they have (Wieters, Markakis, etc) and wah-lah, you have a contender in a couple of years. As I started off saying, however, their management has got to start spending a little coin to bring in those pieces that will compliment the young talent they already have. Without a financial commitment, it will be awfully hard to compete in this division. For Orioles fans' sake I hope that management steps up a little, this would be the perfect time.

2010 Year in Preview: Toronto Blue Jays

Sweeps week rolls on this morning with a look at the Toronto Blue Jays, last seen in 2009 with a 75-87 record, finishing 4th in the AL East, 28 GB the 103-59 Yankees.  The Blue Jays had themselves quite the offseason.  Let's get to it.

Key Departures: 

Goodbye, Doc.  I won't miss Halladay mowing down the Yankees game after game after game.  It seemed like we would face Halladay every time we played the Blue Jays.  We just couldn't catch a series where we got the soft end of the Jays' rotation.  Oh no.  There was Doc, going eight innings strong, throwing 132 pitches, striking out 7 and walking none.  Think I'm exaggerating?

In 2008, he faced the Yankees six times, six!, holding them to a .211/.262/.335 line with a K/BB ratio of 4.43.  Mind you, the Yankees faced the Blue Jays...wait for it...six times in 2008.  In 2009, he faced the Yankees five times, holding them to a .240/.274/.413 line with a K/BB ratio of 4.00.  The Yankees and the Blue Jays faced off 6 times in 2008, but two of those series were two-game affairs.  From 1999 to 2009, Halladay held the Yankees to a .239/.289/.367 line posting a 3.52 K/BB ratio.  He turned the Yankees into Nick Punto every time he faced them.  I'm glad Halladay is done tormenting the Yankees, but I'll miss getting the opportunity to see a master of the craft at work.

The Blue Jays dealt Halladay to to the Phillies for C Travis d'Arnaud, RHP Kyle Drabek, and outfielder Michael Taylor, whom they immediately flipped to Oakland for 3B prospect Brett Wallace. They lost SS Marco Scutaro to free agency when the Red Sox signed him to a two year deal, but will receive Boston's first round draft pick as compensation since Scutaro was a Type A free agent.  Other losses include C Rod Barajas, 1B Kevin Millar and RHP Brian Wolfe.  


Additionally, the Jays lost RHP Brandon League and minor league outfield prospect Johermyn Chavez when they traded them to the Mariners for RHP Brandon Morrow.

Key Additions: 
As mentioned above, the Jays picked up C Travis d'Arnaud, RHP Kyle Drabek, 3B Brett Wallace and RHP Brandon Morrow in trades this winter.  They also acquired RHP Dana Eveland from the Oakland Athletics in exchange for cash.  Other than that, the Jays went short-term and low-cost with their free agent signings, inking defensive king SS John McDonald to a two year, $3M deal, SS Alex Gonzalez to a 1 year, $2.75M deal, RHP Kevin Gregg to a 1 year, $2.75M deal with a $4.75M option for 2011 and an $8.75M option for 2012, and catcher John Buck for a 1 year, $2M deal. That's a grand total of $10.5M committed to the payroll.

Talent en Route: 
Without a doubt, the most highly regarded prospect the Jays now have is RHP Kyle Drabek.  This 23 year old was Philadelphia's first round draft pick in 2006 and was showing promise in his first season of work in 2007 by posting a 4.33 ERA in 54 IP, striking out 46 and walking 23. However, this campaign was cut short in July of that year when Drabek injured his elbow and needed Tommy John surgery.  In 2008, he returned to the mound for 32 innings, but 2009 was his first full year back and he did not disappoint.  Drabek threw 158 innings in 2009, splitting time between High A and Double A.  In High A, he struck out 10.8 batters per nine innings and walked 2.8 batters per nine.  Over 61 innings, his ERA was 2.48.  Upon his promotion to Double A, Drabek's K rate dipped slightly 7.41 batters per nine, and his walk rate stayed the same at 2.9.  Over 96 innings, Drabek posted an ERA 3.64.

Drabek is obviously a very talented pitching prospect, and is almost major-league ready.  His first full year of work when coming back from Tommy John surgery was tremendous, especially the control he exhibited.  Often, pitchers recovering from Tommy John surgery find control to be one of the last things to return.  Additionally, Drabek has a good repetoire, using a great curveball to complement a legitimate power fastball.  However, there are a few things that  concern me about Drabek.  For one, I'd like to see his K rate in the higher levels of the minors be a bit higher than the 7.0 range. This will be the year that we see if he's able to do it.  Secondly, Drabek's jump in innings in 2009 seems a bit excessive, especially given his injury history.  Drabek threw 23 innings in 2006 as an 18 year old and 54 innings the following year before going down with his injury.  In 2008, he logged 32 innings in rehab starts and then was unleashed for 158 innings the following year.  It's almost as if the Phillies were trying to get as much out of him to maximize his trade value.  The last thing that gives me pause about Drabek is his size.  At 6'0", 185 lb, he has likely maxed out in terms of velocity and projection.  There's no rule that says you have to be tall to be a successful major league pitcher, but it certainly doesn't hurt.  This is just nit-picking though.  There's plenty to love about Drabek, and he'll be a big name to watch in 2010.

The second prospect to focus on in 2010 is big man Brett Wallace, a left-handed hitting, oversized masher listed generously at 6'2", 205 lb.  Here is a picture of Wallace when he played for the Cardinals:

That's a big boy.  Wallace has been around the league in the past two seasons.  He was originally drafted by the Blue Jays in 2005 in the 42nd round of the 2005 MLB draft, but didn't sign and went to Arizona State, where he was two-time Pac 10 Player of the Year.  In the 2008 MLB Draft, the Cardinals picked him with the 13th pick of the first round, and he put up an incredibly impressive line of .337/.427/.530 between A and AA as a 21 year old.  Of course, Wallace is an advanced college bat, so the real test of his ability came when he faced better pitching.  The following year, Wallace began in AA and improved his on-base skills while seeing a drop-off in slugging, putting up a line of .281/.403/.438.  The Cards promoted him after 32 games to AAA.  Here he saw further regression (.293/.346/.423), before getting traded to the A's in the Matt Holliday deal, at which point he went on an absolute tear, going for .302/.365/.505 and hitting 9 home runs in 182 ABs.  He finished the year with a combined line of .293/.367/.455, and then was promptly dealt to the Jays in exchange for OF Michael Taylor.  

Brett Wallace is a pure hitter and possesses the ability to hit for average and power.  Unfortunately, Wallace's defensive skills are minimal, due to his unathletic build and lack of speed.  The Jays will move him to first base, where his bat should play fine.  He is scheduled to start in Triple A in 2010, but may force his way onto the major league roster by mid-year.  Wallace will be a good source of power for the coming years, even if his defensive skills are minimal.  As a hitter, he reminds me a lot of Billy Butler, and I think Jays fans would be happy if Wallace can produce at Butler's level in the near future.  

2011 Salary and Free Agency Outlook

Thanks to the Rios and Halladay deals, the Jays have shed a lot of payroll going into 2010 and should begin the year with a payroll around $70M, down from $80M in 2009 and $94M in 2008.  The financial picture improves considerably for the Jays in the future though, as they only have $33M committed to payroll in 2011.  Unfortunately, $26M of that is committed to one player, Vernon Wells.  Wells is scheduled to make a sickening $26M in 2011, $24M in 2012, $24M in 2013 and $24M in 2014.  Words fail me. 

The Jays have a slew of players that will be due for significant raises going into 2011.  Brian Tallet and Shawn Camp are both due for their fourth and final year of arbitration in 2011, and Jeremy Accardo and Edwin Encarnacion are both scheduled for their third.  Shaun Marcum, Dustin McGowan and Casey Jansenn are all due for a big raise in their second year of arbitration eligibility, and Morrow, Litsch, Lind, Eveland and Carlson all become eligible for the first time. The good news for the Jays is that they have considerable talent that won't reach arbitration eligibility until at least 2012 in Travis Snider, Scott Richmond, Brett Cecil, Ricky Romero and Marc Rzepczynski.  Additionally, 2B Aaron Hil is signed to a very club-friendly deal that will pay him $4M in 2010, $5M in 2011 and gives the Jays $8M club options for 2012 and 2012 and a $10M club option in 2014.  That's a lot of cheap talent under team control for a very long time. 

So what will the Jays attempt to do in free agency in 2011?  Lyle Overbay, Jason Frasor, Scott Downs and John Buck are all scheduled to become free agents, so the Jays have ostensible holes at the back end of the bullpen, at first base, and at catcher.  As we noted above, though, Brett Wallace should be able to man first base by at least Opening Day 2011, leaving the Jays with a projected lineup of: 

C - Jose Molina or FA

1B - Brett Wallace 

2B - Aaron Hill 

SS - Alex Gonzalez (club option $2.5M)/John McDonald ($1.5M)

3B - Edwin Encarnacion 

LF - Travis Snider/Adam Lind 

CF - Vernon Wells 

RF - Jose Bautista/Travis Snider

DH - Adam Lind 

The obvious holes here are at catcher and RF.  I doubt we'll see the Jays pursue a big name at either of those positions.  At catcher, Buck may be a good candidate to return.  In right field, Xavier Nady might be a good fit.  The Jays could use Snider to RF and sign someone like Johnny Damon to play LF and split time at DH with Adam Lind.  Another option would be to sign a first baseman and use Lind in left, Snider in right and Wallace at DH, but I suspect the Jays want to see if Wallace's glove can stick at first before slotting him as a DH. 

In the rotation, the Jays have a ton of cheap, solid talent with a lot of upside.  Marcum, Romero and Morrow are the Jays' top three starters according to the Jays' Depth Chart, but Morrow has already had shoulder trouble this spring and I'm bearish on his ability to remain in the rotation long-term.  Thus, if Frasor and Downs leave via free agency, we might see the Jays shift Morrow to the bullpen, where his power stuff would play up.  The back-end of the rotation is solid, with strikeout artist Marc Rzepczynski and lefty Brian Tallet occupying the fourth and fifth spots.  Rzepczynski was one of my deep sleepers to target in fantasy baseball this year, and I'm wondering if we might see big things from him this year.  Beyond that, the Jays have Eveland, Cecil and McGowan waiting in the wings, all decent options with varying amounts of upside.  This has the potential to be a formidable pitching staff in 2010 and 2011, even without Roy Halladay. 

The Future of the Blue Jays

The Jays went through a tough time in 2009 when they realized the current construction of the team wasn't good enough to compete and that they needed to rebuilt and deal ace Roy Halladay.  It was a dark time for Jays fans, but things are on the up and up.  For one, ownership decided to can the criminally stupid JP Ricciardi.  If not for Ricciardi and his asinine signings of Rios, Wells and BJ Ryan, the Jays could have had the payroll flexibility to keep Halladay and even sign him to an extension.  What's done is done, though, and there are reasons for optimisim.

For one, they hired Alex Anthopolous to be their GM, and he has done a superb job in his first few months in an extremely difficult situation.  Secondly, they have a lot of high upside pitching talent coming off injury in Marcum and McGowan (and Litsch in 2011).  Thirdly, they have good, cheap options for the rotation in Rzepczynski, Romero and Cecil, with Drabek and Eveland on the outside looking in.  Finally,  they have solid, cheap bats in Hill, Snider, Wallace and Lind, and enough salary room to make a splash in 2011 or 2012 if they desire.  It's going to take a lot of things to go right, and in the AL East you have very little margin for error, but I think the Jays are going to see an improvement in 2010 and 2011, and fast.  And if they're able to deal Wells without eating his salary, then watch out.  

2010 Year in Preview: NL East Wrap-Up

Without much chit-chat before-hand, let's dive in to the wrap up...

Top NL East Prospect(s):

There is little doubt which two prospects deserves mention here, and both of the 2009 draftees could make big waves in the NL East this year. Both Stephen Strasburg and Jason Heyward could both see major playing time with their respective clubs and according to ESPN and various other outlets, Heyward will most like be the starting RFer for the Braves on Opening Day.

For me, I guess I don't know exactly what to think of Strasburg. Some outlets have said that he's "once in a generation" talent and other respected sources like Baseball America have Heyward ranked over Strasburg. On his current trajectory there is little doubt Strasburg is going to be one heck of a pitcher, but the jury is still out because there have been other EPIC busts who were touted as "sure things" (i.e. Mark Prior, Matt Bush, Brien Taylor).

I'm a little more convinced with Heyward simply because he has shown this Spring that he can hit Major League pitching and has even gotten to the point where he has now made the club for Opening Day. It will be interesting to see if Heyward can maintain a respectable level of production throughout the entire season and it wouldn't surprise me a bit if the Braves use him somewhat sparingly in April and May. Eventually the pitchers are going to figure him out to a degree and it remains to be seen how quickly he will adjust.

Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA Projection Standings - And CHONE Projections too:

PECOTA
Philadelphia Phillies (90-72): 774RS, 684RA, .266/.339/.432
Atlanta Braves (86-76): 744RS, 696RA, .265/.341/.414
Florida Marlins (80-82): 725RS, 739RA, .257/.329/.415
New York Mets (78-84): 743RS, 781RA, .264/.335/.417
Washington Nationals (74-88): 677RS, 749RA, .251/.325/.388

CHONE
Atlanta Braves (89-73)
Philadelphia Phillies (87-75)
New York Mets (80-82)
Florida Marlins (76-86)
Washington Nationals (74-88)

The most notable difference between the two is who wins the division, but both see the Braves and Phillies being the cream of the NL East with a steep drop-off after that. I think the key for the Braves hanging in there with the Phillies will be the evolution of their starting rotation. Jurrjens and Lowe are known entities and should continue to perform well, young Tommy Hanson will be entering his 2nd season and will hopefully continue to improve, but it is the back-end of Kawakami and Hudson who are the wild cards. Hudson has looked absolutely fantastic so far this Spring, but with him it's always a question of health, having only pitched parts of the last two seasons.

Aside from that, I can't imagine that NL East batters are looking forward to facing Roy Halladay who could be in line to absolutely tear apart the National League. With the run support he should get, what's the limit on wins? 25? Add to that a rising young star in J.A. Happ and the young Cole Hamels and you've got a pretty fearsome top 3. There is little doubt here, barring injuries, that the Braves and Phils will be challenging for the NL East crown and possibly the Wild Card berth as well.

Predictions Sure to Lead People Astray:

(sic)

Phillies (90-72)

Braves (86-76)

Marlins (81-81)

Mets (78-84)

Nationals (70-92)

AK47

Phillies (87-75)

Braves (86-76)

Mets (83-79)

Marlins (78-84)

Nationals (72-90)

Domedog
Braves (89-73)
Phillies (88-74)
Marlins (83-79)
Mets (80-82)
Nats (71-91)

Just like CHONE and PECOTA, we're all predicting similar outcomes for the NL East with the Phillies and Braves at the top. This could be one of the 'sleepier' divisions in baseball over the coming season and by that I do not mean it will be boring, but as things stand now it should play out fairly predictably. It will be very interesting to watch the prospects in the NL East and see how they pan out over their first season of action, only a week to go till the season starts!!

2010 Year in Preview: Philadelphia Phillies

When we last saw the Phillies, this happened: 

And then this happened: 

And then this happened: 

Now that I've made all the Phillies fans leave in disgust, let's get to it.  2010 Year In Preview: Philadelphia Phillies!

2010 Season: 93-69, Winners of the NL East and the NL Pennant; lost to the Yankees in six games in the World Series.  

Key Departures: Cliff Lee (traded to Mariners), Pedro Feliz (signed with Astros), Scott Eyre (quit), Brett Myers (signed with Astros), Chan Ho Park (signed with WSC Yankees)

Key Additions: 

Thanks to Drunk Jays Fans for giving us permission to use the image!  Huge fan of DJF.   

One Roy Halladay, arguably the best pitcher in the game (traded from Blue Jays), Placido Polanco (3B free agent), Jose Contreras (RHP, free agent).  

I'll cover the economics behind the Halladay/Lee deal in greater depth in the 2011 Free Agency and Salary Outlook, which has apparently become my forte, but essentially the Phils swapped Halladay for Lee, and secured themselves a good pitching prospect in Phillippe Aumont in the process.  This move was about payroll, but also minor league depth.  

Talent En Route: 

The Phillies lost three of their best prospects in the Halladay deal when they sent RHP Kyle Drabek, catcher Travis d'Arnaud and OF Michael Taylor to the Blue Jays.  They got some prospects back by trading Cliff Lee to the Mariners, the best of which is Phillippe Aumont.  But getting Lee in the first place from the Indians cost them a bounty in Lou Marson, Jason Knapp and Carlos Carrasco.  In sum, the Phillies' minor league depth has been depleted a great deal, but there are still two prospects worth watching in 2010. 

The first is Domonic Brown. Brown is a giant specimen of a center fielder, standing in at 6'5" and weighing 220.  The Phillies drafted him straight out of high school in the 20th round of the 2006 MLB draft.  In his first full season of work as a nineteen year old, he posted a .299/.363/.415 line with 4 HR in 77 games, stealing 14 bases.  The next year as a 20 year old in high A ball he showed good OBP skills with a .291/.382/.417 line in 516 plate appearances.  As you can see, the power was not yet there.  The next year, Brown owned High A pitching to the tune of a .504 SLG and 11 home runs in 280 AB, and earned a callup to Double A.  There he went for .279/.346/.456 but only hit 3 home runs in 147 AB.  

There's a lot to like about Brown.  He has a projectable frame, and you can see that he could add power as he gets older and fills out.  He also possesses great speed and a plus arm.  The challenge for Brown is finding a consistent power stroke while learning how to adapt to better pitching.  As you can see from his minor league stats, he often struggles when he gets promoted up a level, and then learns to adjust.  For this reason, I'm thinking that Opening Day 2011 may be too aggressive of a timeline for Brown even though the Phillies' front office is hoping that he'll be able to take Werth's spot in RF.  My prediction for 2010: a .290/370/.490 line from Brown in Double A and a .280/.350/.410 line in Triple A in 2010.  

Phillippe Aumont is the other prospect I want to profile in the Phillies Year In Preview.  Aumont was drafted by the Mariners with the 11th pick of the 1st round of the 2007 draft, who completely converted him to a reliever.  Aumont stands in at 6'7", 220 lbs and features a heavy, sinking fastball that ranges from 92 to 96, a plus slider and a rudimentary changeup.  The Phillies plan to convert Aumont back into a starter in 2010, a move of which I wholeheartedly approve.  While Aumont may have been able to crack the bigs earlier as a reliever, his stuff merits a long look in the rotation.  Due to the fact that he was drafted straight of out high school and has thrown a mere 106 total innings in the two years since, Aumont won't likely have any impact on the Phillies rotation in 2010 and will need plenty of time to build arm strength and get a full year of innings under his belt.  There's plenty of reason to be optimistic, given his arsenal.  Frankie Piliere of AOL Fanhouse really liked what he saw: 

The best way to describe Aumont when he's on his game? He's a force of nature. With one of the best sinking fastballs in professional baseball, there are points in the game where Aumont can use that pitch almost exclusively and completely dominate a lineup. 

The entire piece is worth a read, so check it out.  I really enjoyed reading his scouting report on Aumont and on the perennial tease and frustration, Yankees RHP Christian Garcia, whom I love and hate with equal parts.  


2011 Free Agency and Salary Outlook
The Phillies are no small-market, gritty, overachieving, low-budget team like the Red Sox (#sarcasm), as they opened the 2009 season with a payroll of $113M.  Their payroll is set to go up at least $25M to $138M in 2010, due to the deal that Ryan Howard received (3 years, $54M), the extension that Halladay signed (3 years, $60M), and the baffling deal they handed to Blanton (3 years and $24M).  Let's stop and fixate on the Blanton deal for a second.  Ruben Amaro stated that the reason they dealt Lee was to replenish the farm system and to sign a top tier pitcher to a long-term, and affordable, deal.  Yet many have speculated that they also traded Lee to clear payroll for 2010.  Lee is only making $8M in 2010.  Was it really necessary to lock up Blanton to an $8M AAV deal while clearing space by trading Lee?  Imagine how formidable a rotation of Halladay-Lee-Hamels would be in the playoffs!  And if the reason for dealing Lee wasn't payroll, just to replenish the farm system, couldn't they have gotten a better return than Aumont and a few lesser pieces?  Why didn't they shop him longer, and more openly?  No teams were willing to offer more than Aumont for one year of Lee at $8M?  And finally, if not, why not keep him for 2010, deal Blanton, and then offer Lee arbitration after the 2010 season and use the draft pick to replenish the farm system?

I don't get it.  I didn't get it then, and I don't get it now.  Flags fly forever, and I think keeping Lee would have made the Phillies a far more fierce opponent in October.

All of that aside, the Phils still have $132M committed to their payroll in 2011, not factoring in arbitration raises to Kyle Kendrick, J.A. Happ and others.  That's a lot of coin.  Coming off the payroll are Moyer, Durbin and Werth.  Since their payroll is already so high, I would imagine that they let Werth walk and hope that Brown can assume the role full-time.  Other than RF, the Phillies will have no other significant holes in 2011.


Phillies Overview: 
To cut to the chase, the Phillies are a team built to win now. They have an excellent, but aging, core of players in Utley, Werth, Howard, Rollins and Halladay, all of whom are paid handsomely.  Their farm system has been depleted due to the trades for Lee and Halladay, and while getting Aumont back from the Mariners certainly doesn't hurt, they don't have now have a pitching prospect so close to the majors like they had in Drabek.  The Phillies have been very good at winning for the past two years.  There's no reason to think that won't continue in 2010; they are the cream of the crop of the National League.  But the warning signs are there - Werth will leave after 2010, Howard is very expensive, and their core of Utley and Rollins weakened considerably in 2009 with Rollins' dropoff and isn't getting any younger. For 2010 and 2011, though, there's no reason to think that the Phillies won't be near or at the top of NL East and competitive in the playoffs.  I wouldn't be surprised to see them back in the World Series this October as the first winner of three straight National League pennants in six decades, when the St. Louis Cardinals and Stan Musial reigned supreme.