Brew Crew Lands Greinke

I was a little [read: a lot] surprised to read on Saturday that the Brewers landed Zack Greinke in a 4-for-2 trade that saw Alcides Escobar, Lorenzo Cain, Jeremy Jeffress, and Jake Odorizzi go to the Royals in exchange for the right-hander, Yuniesky Betancourt, and $2MM cash. Escobar and Cain both played at the Major League level last year while Jeffress and Odorizzi fall solidly into the prospect category. I can't help but feel a little sad for Royals fans, this is the umpteenth good player to leave the organization in the last 10 years, not many people attend Royals games anyway, but they may have even less reason to now.

In examining the trade, it actually looks pretty good, and even has the potential to benefit the Royals more than the Brewers long-term; let's go player-by-player: 

1.) Alcides Escobar - SS
Escobar was considered a 5-Star prospect (their highest rating) by Baseball Prospectus and was also considered the Brewers top prospect by Baseball America prior to last season. He spent the entire year up with the Major League club after a spot opened up following the JJ Hardy trade. Escobar was underwhelming at the plate with a .235/.288/.326 hitting line. However, he was above-average defensively and he is only 24. Not only that, his Minor League track record (.293/.333/.377) suggests he's likely to become a much more consistent hitter at the plate. If that were to happen and his defense was to continue to be above-average, he would quickly become one of the more valuable shortstops in the game. 

2.) Lorenzo Cain - CF/OF
Cain also got Major League experience last year and showed off quite a bat (.306/.348/.415 in 158PAs). Cain was drafted by the Brewers in the 17th round of the 2004 draft and though he spent parts of 6 years in the Minors, he is still only 24 years old and has not only proven he can hit, he has also flashed some excellent speed and base-stealing abilities. Between 2 minor league levels and the Majors last year, he stole 33 bases while only being caught 4 times. Cain figures to be an everyday CFer for the Royals and if he can keep that hitting up, could be a superstar in a short time. 

3.) Jeremy Jeffress - RP/SP (maybe)
Jeffress was selected by the Brewers with the 16th pick in the 2006 Amateur Draft. To say the Royals are taking a major gamble on Jeffress is an understatement. Jeremy has had numerous substance abuse problems and that resulted in a 100-game suspension in 2009 causing him to miss most of 2009 and half of the 2010 season. When Jeffress has been pitching, he's been great at times, highlighted best by this past season which saw him pitch in 24 games and compile a 2.23ERA and 0.92WHIP in 32.1 innings while striking out batters to the tune of 12.0 per 9-innings pitched. Jeffress' best pitch is his fastball which averaged 96-mph this past year. That is some rare-company, only 2 starting pitchers and 6 relievers averaged a faster fastball this past season. If Jeffress can stay away from drugs and stay on a straight-line, he could be incredibly valuable, but again, considering his track record, it's quite a gamble. 

4.) Jake Odorizzi - SP
Odorizzi was taken in the 1st round (32nd pick) of the 2008 Amateur draft and is easily the most unpolished prospect in the deal having only reached Single-A this past year. That said, he probably has the most upside and is an pretty intriguing prospect having compiled a 3.43ERA, 1.15WHIP and 10.1 K/9 in 120.2 innings as a starter last season. As impressive as those stats is the fact that he's just a kid at 20-years-old. More than a few articles have used the words "sensation" and "phenom" when talking about Jake and considering he was drafted in the 1st round right out of high school, there may be something to that. More than likely we will see Odorizzi pitching in the Majors within the next two years and he has the potential to be the Royals next Greinke.


So I couldn't help but compare the Brewers offer to what the Twins could have offered...let's just say, the comparison isn't much of a comparison at all. Even if the Twins had given up their two best prospects which is generally thought of to be some combination of Revere, Hicks and Gibson it wouldn't really approach the potential of Odorizzi and Jeffress, and then you throw two young talents like Cain and Escobar,...man, the Brewers really "gave away the farm" to get Greinke and that's no understatement. If they don't win a World Series title within the next couple of years (or this year for that matter), they will toil in mediocrity for awhile because unless they raise payroll substantially they will lose Prince Fielder and possibly Ryan Braun as well leaving them with a tattered infield and outfield and no decent prospects to replace them. Good luck Brewers!

Previewing Twins v. Brewers

For what was once a good rivalry when the Brewers were a part of the AL Central (which was considered the AL West before 1994), the Twins have pretty much dominated the last 3 seasons going 11-4 against the Brew Crew and out-scoring them 99-54 during that period.

As I mentioned earlier, the pitching matchups in this series appear to favor the Twins, at least in the first two games anyway. Let's take a look.

Tonight: Scott Baker (6-5, 4.41) vs. Chris Narveson (5-4, 5.79)

Following a couple of rough outings versus Oakland and Kansas City, Baker was absolutely electric in his last start against Colorado pitching 7 innings of shutout ball, striking out 12 and walking only 1. Pitch control has been Baker's M.O. for the past 3 starts in which has allowed a total of 3 free passes. He has struggled on the road this season, but has pitched well in night games, so perhaps the two will balance each other out and we'll get a serviceable outing from Baker tonight. As for Chris Narveson, he will be making his 11th start of the season and has not pitched very well. I bet the Twins will have their right-handed bats out in full-force tonight as Narveson is giving up a .324/.394/.573 line against righties this season. This is a winnable game for the Twins.

Tomorrow: Francisco Liriano (6-4, 2.98) vs. Manny Parra (1-5, 3.91)

If the Twins take game 1 vs. the Brewers, they stand a good chance to take the series because this is a best matchup of the series. Liriano has been brilliant as of late allowing 3ERs or less in each of his last 5 starts while striking out 41 and walking only 7. I feel bad for the lefties who have to face Liriano as has he has allowed a .178/.189/.219 line against them while striking out 25 and walking none. His opposition is Manny Parra who, after a long stint in the bullpen to begin the year, will be making his 3rd start of the season. Parra owns a career 5.01ERA and really isn't anything special. He started a game against the Twins last year, pitched 3 1/3rd innings, gave up 9 runs (8 earned) and the Brewers lost to the Twins 11-3. This is a very winnable game for the Twins.

Thursday: Nick Blackburn (6-4, 5.80) vs. Yovani Gallardo (6-3, 2.59)

This is easily the toughest game of the series for the Twins. Yovani Gallardo has been a diamond in the rough for the Brewers this year with 103Ks and 44BB in 94IP. He's been really good in June throwing 26 innings in 4 starts with a 2.08 ERA and .191 BAA. Blackburn on the other hand has been wildly inconsistent at-best and has generally been pretty terrible in his past 4 starts watching his ERA balloon from 4.28 to 5.80 over that period. For Blackburn, the difference seems to be whether the game is at home or away. At home, he has a 3.19 ERA on the season and on the road, it's a putrid 9.09. Unless Blackburn pulls something out of his butt for this one, I'm seeing a loss here.

The Twins have won 6 straight road series against National League competition and this one has the potential to be the 7 in a row. I'm hoping that Joe Mauer can join Delmon Young and Justin Morneau on the hit parade, I think that would really fire up the offense. Go Twins.

2010 Year in Preview: NL Central Wrapup

Well, I just completed a writeup of the NL Central 2010 Year in Preview, clicked “Publish” and watched it disappear.  How frustrating.  Of course, no reader cares.  They just want to see the writeup.  I don’t blame you.  Here is a reconstituted, recreated, better-than-ever 2010 Year In Preview: NL Central.

Top Prospect: Aroldis Chapman.  We've covered him in detail time and again, most recently in my 2010 Year In Preview: Cincinnati Reds.  Chapman has already thrown a bullpen in the Reds Spring Training camp, and the video I saw looked exactly the same as the other video I’ve seen of him throwing.  His mechanics are still very raw, but apparently he was hitting 97 mph.  I don’t know if that’s true, but it’s worth passing along.  Three questions about Aroldis in 2010: 

1.  Where will he start the year? My money is on Double A. I don’t think there’s any chance that he starts higher than that.  He needs time to mature and work on his secondary offerings. 

2. When will Cincinnati call him up?  Since the Reds signed Chapman to a ML deal, I don’t believe there is any financial incentive towards keeping him in the Minors and limit his service time.  Thus, you have to think that the Reds will call him up when he is ready, and there is a need for him on the Major League Roster.  Given what the back end of their rotation looks like, I’m going to wager a very aggressive guess and say July 1^st. 

3. What will be the round that some idiot in your fantasy baseball league (over)drafts Chapman this year?  Depends on your league.  If you are in a pitching-heavy keeper league, then you might see Chapman go early.  If you’re in a standard, non-keeper league, then you might not see him drafted at all.  My league is more pitching-heavy, and it is a keeper league, so I’m expecting some idiot, perhaps AK, to draft Chapman in the 15th round.  Really looking forward to it. 

Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA Projected Standings

It's almost embarassing to reference PECOTA at this point.  Between the time that I write this and the time that you read this, PECOTA will have predicted the Yankees to win the division, changed it to the Red Sox, switched it to the Rays, then back to the Red Sox, then projected a three-way tie between the three.  Get it together, PECOTA!

St. Louis Cardinals - 89-73. 744 RS, 670 RA. .269/.343/.426. 

Chicago Cubs - 80-82. 734 RS, 746 RA. .269/.343/.423.

Cincinnati Reds - 77-85. 713 RS, 753 RA. .259/.334/.421

Houston Astros - 77-85. 712 RS, 755 RA. .269/.332/.418

Milwaukee Brewers - 77-85. 765 RS, 803 RA. .264/.339/.443

Pittsburgh Pirates - 72-90. 693 RS, 800 RA. .259/.330/.411. 

PECOTA likes the Cards to win the division in 2010 by virtue of the second-best offense and the best pitching/defense in the division. I have no problem with that, but if Wainwright or Carpenter get hurt, then their ability to hold down the RA is going to be greatly compromised.  

Interestingly, PECOTA sees the Cards as being the only team with an above-.500 record.  In second place we see the Cubs.  The projection is decidedly mediocre.  Only three games back from the Cubs there is a three-way tie between Cincy, Houston and the Brewers.  PECOTA sees Cincy and Houston as almost identical.  There are obvious similarities between the Reds and the Astros, in that their offenses are weak and are supported by a few standout players, and that their pitching staffs both have consistent veterans and high-upside guys, but I'll take the Reds over the Astros in 2010 any day.  I think the upside is far greater. The Brewers show that there's more than one way to skin a cat, and PECOTA likes them to bash their way to victory in 2010.  Unfortunately, their pitching after Gallardo and Wolf looks to be a decided liability. 

In last place, we see the Pirates.  Poor Pittsburgh.  One day your prince will come. 

As we complete our division previews, I want to look back and see which teams have the best and worst ranked offenses and pitching staffs.  We've completed the NL Central and the AL West. You may notice that some of the RS and RA are different from what I listed in the AL West Preview. This is because PECOTA has adjusted itself from the time I published the Preview.  I will always be using the most recent iteration. 

The BESTS

Best Offense: Texas Rangers, 840 RS. 2nd: Angels, 780. 3rd: Brewers, 765. 

The Rangers are looking to have an absolutely monster offense, going .280/.351/.468.  That's a team OPS of over .800.  I'm not surprised to see the Brewers on this list, but I am very surprised to see the Angels projected to score so many runs.  

Best Pitching/Defense: St. Louis Cardinals, 670 RA. 2nd: Seattle, 713. 3rd: Oakland, 736. 

It's an odd group.  Cardinals' run prevention ability comes primarily from their great pitching, headed by Wainwright and Carpenter.  Seattle's run prevention will come from a great 1-2 pitching punch in Felix and Lee, and also in spectacular defense.  Oakland doesn't have a 1-2 punch like either St. Louis or Seattle, and they don't have good defense either.  But they do have a bevy of above-average pitchers, and this depth may be the key to a good season RA total. 

The WORSTS

Worst Offense: Pittsburgh, 693 RS.  2nd: Houston, 712. 3rd: Cincy, 713. 

I'm a little surprised that neither Oakland nor Seattle made this list, but it could be the value of the DH. 

Worst Pitching: LA Angels, 835 RA (wow!). 2nd: Brewers, 800.  3rd: Pirates, 800.  

I am shocked, but happy, to see that the Angels have such an astronomically high RA.  When I did the 2010 Year in Preview, they were projected to allow 775 runs.  I have no idea what caused the increase, but I'll take it! 

In Which AK and (sic) Make Foolhardy, Ridiculous and Sure-To-Be-Wrong Predictions

AK, you have the floor...

St. Louis Cardinals (90-72) - With a healthy Wainwright/Carpenter duo coming back and the likes of Holliday and Pujols in the lineup, it's hard to bet against the Cards. If one of them were to get hurt, it would certainly change the outlook, but this is a pretty weak division and the Cardinals should have no problems wrapping this up early.

Chicago Cubs (83-79) - The only reason I am putting the Cubs second is because I didn't know who to choose between the Cubs, Brewers and Astros. The Cubs could contend if Ted Lilly doesn't miss too much time and pitches well upon return, but as it stands, their #1 and #2 is Zambrano and Dempster and that's just not going to cut it. Plus, on the field, this team is starting to look old.

Milwaukee Brewers (81-81) - As I wrote in my analysis of the Brewers, the starting rotation is brutal. You have Gallardo and then 4 back-end starters. The only thing that can save this team is offense and I fear that they will not have enough. In two years I see Fielder gone and Braun demanding a trade...

Houston Astros (80-82) - I could be way off about the Astros, Oswalt is Oswalt, Wandy Rodriguez could return to early-2009 form and Brett Myers is in a new place with reason to impress. The offense will be decent and if the pitching follows, the Astros will be better than I am projecting them at.

Cincinnati Reds (76-86) - As (sic) pointed out to me, I've got no love for the Reds. There are too many 'ifs' here for me, if everything goes right they're contenders, but if not, no dice and, thankfully for Reds fans, they'll probably get a new manager out of it.

Pittsburgh Pirates (70-92) - A bunch of moves, all smoke, this team will likely be out of it by the all-star break, if not sooner.

(sic)'s note: I'm willing to wait a year on the Reds breaking out if it means no more Dusty.  

I hate you Dusty. 

My turn: 

St. Louis Cardinals - 86-76

Cincinnati Reds - 80-82

Milwaukee Brewers - 80-82

Chicago Cubs - 78-84

Houston Astros - 75-87

Pittsburgh Pirates - 69-93

True to form, I like the Reds as the 2010 NL Central sleeper.  I don't think they'll have enough to win the Wild Card, unfortunately, but they ought to set themselves up nicely for a run in 2011 when Chapman and Volquez are ready to go full season. I'm slightly more optimistic on the Brewers than PECOTA, simply on the strength of their offense.  Cubs fans, I think this is the year the team falls off a cliff.  It is the worst team in several years, and I think this losing season will usher in three to four years of playoff-less baseball on the North Side.  Sorry.  

My final thought concerns the Cardinals. I like St. Louis to win the war of attrition this year in the NL Central.  It's no surprise, really.  They have the best team, and they should win easily.  The only thing that concerns me is the health of Carpenter and Wainwright.  Since we've been making blind, bold predictions all offseason, I'll go out on a limb and say that one of them will spend significant time on the DL this year, and I think it will be Wainwright. 

Will this be the year that Wainwright is killed on the mound in a horrific pitching mechanics accident?  Probably not, no.  BUT MAYBE. If that doesn't happen, look for him to spend some time on the shelf with shoulder tendinitis.  

That's all for the NL Central.  Be sure to bookmark this so you can come back and taunt us in the comments when the Pirates win it all.  

2010 Year in Preview: Milwaukee Brewers

I remember a day, some years ago now, when the Brewers were the nemesis of the Twins, and a guy by the name of Dave Nilsson used to give us fits. The Brewers were part of the AL Central for 4 seasons between 1994 and 1997 and even though both teams sucked at the time, the Twins and Brewers had a healthy rivalry going. Then baseball decided to move the Brewers to the National League, a move I'm still convinced was motivated by personal reasons on the part of Bud Selig. In some ways I feel bad for the Brewers, they are often out of it come September, they have never won a World Series and over the last few years, despite a power hitting line-up, they have been unable to compliment that with a good pitching staff. This year...doesn't look much better.

2009 Record: 80-82, 11GB the St. Louis Cardinals, 3rd Place NL Central

Key Departures:
The two big names to leave the Brewers this past off-season were Mike Cameron OF and J.J. Hardy SS, Cameron through free-agency to the Red Sox and Hardy via trade with the Twins. These two losses have the potential to throw off the Brewer lineup somewhat, but defensively their replacements are solid. Cameron's replacement will be Carlos Gomez and Hardy's replacement will be Alcides Escobar (most likely). Gomez has really struggled at the plate since breaking into the Majors and Escobar, despite his status as a 5-star prospect with the Brewers, has only played 38 big league games up to this point.

Key Additions:
Randy Wolf (SP) - free agent from the Dodgers; Wolf had a nice season last year for the Dodgers starting 34 games with a 3.23ERA and 1.10WHIP but at 32, I don't see Wolf being able to repeat that too many more times, if any. In terms of his career, it was the first season in 8 that he pitched over 200 innings and both his ERA and WHIP were significantly under his career averages. He'll definitely be a nice 2-hole starter behind Gallardo, but don't expect big things.

Doug Davis (SP) - free agent from the Diamondbacks; here's what tells you that the Brewers pitching staff is going to struggle this year...Davis is projected to be the Brewers 3rd starter. Don't get me wrong, Davis is not terrible, but he's a 5th starter, not a 3rd. He eats up innings, but aside from Gallardo, the Brewers have 4 pitchers with underwhelming SO/9 numbers and low velocities. With a 1.49+ career WHIP, Davis is a guy who pitches to contact which is going to put a lot of pressure on the defense.

Carlos Gomez (CF) - Personally I thought the Twins gave up on Gomez a little too early. At 23 years old, Gomez has a lot of baseball left to play and given that he was pretty much the cornerstone of the Santana trade, I thought the Twins rid themselves of him before giving him a legitimate shot. That said, Gomez was REALLY struggling at the plate and the Twins had a big need at SS, so the Hardy trade was a good one. Gomez provides great defense and a lot of energy, but if he doesn't improve at the bat, he'll continue to be only marginally useful.

The rest of the Brewers additions are probably 'B' players. They lost Jason Kendall C in the off-season (free agent to the Royals) so they added Gregg Zaun from the Rays and George Kottaras from the Red Sox. The rest of their additions were the following: Joe Inglett UT, Luis Cruz SS, Marco Estrada RP, Jim Edmonds OF, Scott Schoeneweis RP, Chuck Lofgren Rule 5.

Talent En Route:
I talked about Alcides Escobar who looks like he will be the everyday SS for the Brewers this season barring something unforeseen. Escobar hit well in 38 games last year with a triple-slash of .304/.333/.368. There's an obvious lack of power there, which is one of the knocks against Escobar, but he certainly hits well enough to stay in a lineup and his defense is solid. There are two others who deserve mention in the Brewer farm-system.

Brett Lawrie 2B - drafted by the Brewers in the 1st round in 2008, Lawrie has made it as high as Double-A and he's still only 19 years old. Lawrie started out as a Catcher but requested a move to 2B, but according to Baseball Prospectus, his defense is lacking at 2B, so a move to the outfield might be next. Lawrie has a plus bat with some decent power, but the major leagues is probably another 2-3 years away for this kid.

Mat Gamel 3B - Gamel reminds me of Carols Gomez. Gamel came over in the C.C. Sabathia trade and was absolutely mashing in the minors, only to fizzle offensively in his first big league shot. The Brewers tried to trade him this off season but didn't receive any solid offers for him and it's likely Gamel will start this season back at Triple-A. I hope the Brewers hang onto this kid and give him another shot because I like his potential a lot. Dude's only 23 and look at those MiL stats!!

2011 Free Agency and Salary Outlook:
The Brewers enter this season with the 17th highest payroll in baseball, which is another way of saying they have the 14th lowest payroll in baseball, which is yet another way of saying they are right in the middle in terms of salary with an $80M payroll. The most interesting player to watch next off season will be Prince Fielder because he will be entering his final year of arbitration and the Brewers, if they aren't competitive this year, might be tempted try to trade Fielder. I tend to think the Brewers will try to hang onto Fielder and build a team around him and Braun, but I've grown up with cheap-ness all my life, so a trade would not surprise me. Aside from Fielder, the Brewers are not set to have any big names come up for free agency over the next two years and to be honest, given that their payroll is hovering around $80M, they are in a good position to spend some money over the next few years.


The Future of the Brewers:
My crystal ball is in the repair shop today so I'm gonna have to take a wild guess about the Brewers. It's really hard to say about the Brewers long-term future. On the one hand, they have two outstanding players who they could build this team around in Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder. On the other hand, they have so many holes to fill it's hard to see them being able to build quickly around Braun and Fielder without spending a lot of money, something that this management may not be willing to do. Like I mentioned in the Salary Outlook section, this team is set up to be able to spend some money, but they also have to think about the cost of locking up Fielder long-term. This team's real shot was two years ago when they had C.C. Sabathia, but they ultimately didn't have enough pieces to do anything. I imagine they'll continue to tread water in a relatively deep division and unless their management gets bold, they'll have an occasional post-season appearance, but no sustained success.