If It Ain't Broke, Don't Fix It

Leave it to the Astros to go and screw everything up. I'm not sure exactly HOW it happened, but the new owner of the Astros (Jim Crane) got Bud Selig and Major League baseball to sign-off on moving the team to the American League as part of his deal to buy the team. In addition to the Astros' move from the NL Central to the AL West, MLB will be adding a second wild-card team to each league and will, most likely, implement a one-game playoff between the two wild card teams in each league (a play-in game, if you will). Oh, and because each league now contains the same odd amount of teams (15), 'Inter-league Play' will now be a regular, every-day part of the baseball schedule.

My first reaction to these changes is all negative. Wasn't this past season's September and October evidence enough that what baseball has/had is working? You had two teams make the playoffs on the very final day of the regular season, you had several compelling and interesting playoff series and you had a 7-game World Series for the 2nd consecutive year. I know it's not like this every year, but even in recent memory there has been plenty of similarly exciting stuff happening at the end of the season (back-to-back Game 163s in 2008 and 2009 for the Twins comes immediately to mind). I can't help but feel that one change in particular hasn't been purely media motivated, and the change I'm referring to is the addition of a second wild-card in each league.

For years now, the Eastcoast Sports Programming Network (ESPN) talking heads have been bitching about the fact that there are three playoff-worthy teams in the AL East and only two of them can make it into the post-season. Other lesser AL East teams like the Orioles and Jays have publicly stated that they don't feel they can realistically compete with the payrolls in their own division and thus cannot field teams that can compete for precious few playoff spots. In swoops Bud Selig to save the day! Make no mistake, these moves are motivated PURELY by revenue opportunities...not for the betterment of the game of baseball. The game is fine the way it is/was.

My second reaction to this news was more rational. It's going to happen, might as well accept it. I do like it in one aspect and one aspect alone. I feel as though the wild-card teams should have a disadvantage of some sort. They didn't win a division and not having home-field advantage is not disadvantage enough. If you have a one-game playoff between the two wild-card teams, then each wild-card team will likely (but not necessarily) be forced to use their respective aces...this will give them a distinct disadvantage, especially in the first round of the playoffs where the series' are only a maximum of 5 games in length. I actually like the change from that perspective, but from every other perspective I think it is a needless change.

I also an idea for one further change MLB might as well make to go along with all of the other changes they're talking about. Do away with the Designated Hitter OR do away with pitchers hitting in the National League. Now that you're going to have year-round Interleague Play, why play with two sets of rules? Year-round Interleague Play is already going to further disrupt the precious idea of a "balanced schedule" so why compound the problem by continuing to hold on to separate rules in each league? DH's are already worthless for 10 games of the season as things currently stand and now they're adding several Interleague games to every team's schedule...

Like I said earlier, all of these changes are motivated purely by revenue - I just wish that Bud Selig and MLB would come clean about it. To say that these changes will "improve the game of baseball" is like slapping every baseball fan in the face. We all know how great baseball has been over the past few months. Nobody even once broached the subject of adding extra wild-card teams to the mix until the Tampa Bay Rays started winning...and adding another wild doesn't even guarantee extra drama. As Bill from The Platoon Advantage pointed out on Twitter (@Bill_TPA), the two sudden-death wild-card teams in the American League in 2001 would have been the Oakland Athletics (102-60) and the Minnesota Twins (85-77) - hardly would have seemed fair to make the A's play a one-game playoff...

2010 Year in Preview: NL Central Wrapup

Well, I just completed a writeup of the NL Central 2010 Year in Preview, clicked “Publish” and watched it disappear.  How frustrating.  Of course, no reader cares.  They just want to see the writeup.  I don’t blame you.  Here is a reconstituted, recreated, better-than-ever 2010 Year In Preview: NL Central.

Top Prospect: Aroldis Chapman.  We've covered him in detail time and again, most recently in my 2010 Year In Preview: Cincinnati Reds.  Chapman has already thrown a bullpen in the Reds Spring Training camp, and the video I saw looked exactly the same as the other video I’ve seen of him throwing.  His mechanics are still very raw, but apparently he was hitting 97 mph.  I don’t know if that’s true, but it’s worth passing along.  Three questions about Aroldis in 2010: 

1.  Where will he start the year? My money is on Double A. I don’t think there’s any chance that he starts higher than that.  He needs time to mature and work on his secondary offerings. 

2. When will Cincinnati call him up?  Since the Reds signed Chapman to a ML deal, I don’t believe there is any financial incentive towards keeping him in the Minors and limit his service time.  Thus, you have to think that the Reds will call him up when he is ready, and there is a need for him on the Major League Roster.  Given what the back end of their rotation looks like, I’m going to wager a very aggressive guess and say July 1^st. 

3. What will be the round that some idiot in your fantasy baseball league (over)drafts Chapman this year?  Depends on your league.  If you are in a pitching-heavy keeper league, then you might see Chapman go early.  If you’re in a standard, non-keeper league, then you might not see him drafted at all.  My league is more pitching-heavy, and it is a keeper league, so I’m expecting some idiot, perhaps AK, to draft Chapman in the 15th round.  Really looking forward to it. 

Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA Projected Standings

It's almost embarassing to reference PECOTA at this point.  Between the time that I write this and the time that you read this, PECOTA will have predicted the Yankees to win the division, changed it to the Red Sox, switched it to the Rays, then back to the Red Sox, then projected a three-way tie between the three.  Get it together, PECOTA!

St. Louis Cardinals - 89-73. 744 RS, 670 RA. .269/.343/.426. 

Chicago Cubs - 80-82. 734 RS, 746 RA. .269/.343/.423.

Cincinnati Reds - 77-85. 713 RS, 753 RA. .259/.334/.421

Houston Astros - 77-85. 712 RS, 755 RA. .269/.332/.418

Milwaukee Brewers - 77-85. 765 RS, 803 RA. .264/.339/.443

Pittsburgh Pirates - 72-90. 693 RS, 800 RA. .259/.330/.411. 

PECOTA likes the Cards to win the division in 2010 by virtue of the second-best offense and the best pitching/defense in the division. I have no problem with that, but if Wainwright or Carpenter get hurt, then their ability to hold down the RA is going to be greatly compromised.  

Interestingly, PECOTA sees the Cards as being the only team with an above-.500 record.  In second place we see the Cubs.  The projection is decidedly mediocre.  Only three games back from the Cubs there is a three-way tie between Cincy, Houston and the Brewers.  PECOTA sees Cincy and Houston as almost identical.  There are obvious similarities between the Reds and the Astros, in that their offenses are weak and are supported by a few standout players, and that their pitching staffs both have consistent veterans and high-upside guys, but I'll take the Reds over the Astros in 2010 any day.  I think the upside is far greater. The Brewers show that there's more than one way to skin a cat, and PECOTA likes them to bash their way to victory in 2010.  Unfortunately, their pitching after Gallardo and Wolf looks to be a decided liability. 

In last place, we see the Pirates.  Poor Pittsburgh.  One day your prince will come. 

As we complete our division previews, I want to look back and see which teams have the best and worst ranked offenses and pitching staffs.  We've completed the NL Central and the AL West. You may notice that some of the RS and RA are different from what I listed in the AL West Preview. This is because PECOTA has adjusted itself from the time I published the Preview.  I will always be using the most recent iteration. 

The BESTS

Best Offense: Texas Rangers, 840 RS. 2nd: Angels, 780. 3rd: Brewers, 765. 

The Rangers are looking to have an absolutely monster offense, going .280/.351/.468.  That's a team OPS of over .800.  I'm not surprised to see the Brewers on this list, but I am very surprised to see the Angels projected to score so many runs.  

Best Pitching/Defense: St. Louis Cardinals, 670 RA. 2nd: Seattle, 713. 3rd: Oakland, 736. 

It's an odd group.  Cardinals' run prevention ability comes primarily from their great pitching, headed by Wainwright and Carpenter.  Seattle's run prevention will come from a great 1-2 pitching punch in Felix and Lee, and also in spectacular defense.  Oakland doesn't have a 1-2 punch like either St. Louis or Seattle, and they don't have good defense either.  But they do have a bevy of above-average pitchers, and this depth may be the key to a good season RA total. 

The WORSTS

Worst Offense: Pittsburgh, 693 RS.  2nd: Houston, 712. 3rd: Cincy, 713. 

I'm a little surprised that neither Oakland nor Seattle made this list, but it could be the value of the DH. 

Worst Pitching: LA Angels, 835 RA (wow!). 2nd: Brewers, 800.  3rd: Pirates, 800.  

I am shocked, but happy, to see that the Angels have such an astronomically high RA.  When I did the 2010 Year in Preview, they were projected to allow 775 runs.  I have no idea what caused the increase, but I'll take it! 

In Which AK and (sic) Make Foolhardy, Ridiculous and Sure-To-Be-Wrong Predictions

AK, you have the floor...

St. Louis Cardinals (90-72) - With a healthy Wainwright/Carpenter duo coming back and the likes of Holliday and Pujols in the lineup, it's hard to bet against the Cards. If one of them were to get hurt, it would certainly change the outlook, but this is a pretty weak division and the Cardinals should have no problems wrapping this up early.

Chicago Cubs (83-79) - The only reason I am putting the Cubs second is because I didn't know who to choose between the Cubs, Brewers and Astros. The Cubs could contend if Ted Lilly doesn't miss too much time and pitches well upon return, but as it stands, their #1 and #2 is Zambrano and Dempster and that's just not going to cut it. Plus, on the field, this team is starting to look old.

Milwaukee Brewers (81-81) - As I wrote in my analysis of the Brewers, the starting rotation is brutal. You have Gallardo and then 4 back-end starters. The only thing that can save this team is offense and I fear that they will not have enough. In two years I see Fielder gone and Braun demanding a trade...

Houston Astros (80-82) - I could be way off about the Astros, Oswalt is Oswalt, Wandy Rodriguez could return to early-2009 form and Brett Myers is in a new place with reason to impress. The offense will be decent and if the pitching follows, the Astros will be better than I am projecting them at.

Cincinnati Reds (76-86) - As (sic) pointed out to me, I've got no love for the Reds. There are too many 'ifs' here for me, if everything goes right they're contenders, but if not, no dice and, thankfully for Reds fans, they'll probably get a new manager out of it.

Pittsburgh Pirates (70-92) - A bunch of moves, all smoke, this team will likely be out of it by the all-star break, if not sooner.

(sic)'s note: I'm willing to wait a year on the Reds breaking out if it means no more Dusty.  

I hate you Dusty. 

My turn: 

St. Louis Cardinals - 86-76

Cincinnati Reds - 80-82

Milwaukee Brewers - 80-82

Chicago Cubs - 78-84

Houston Astros - 75-87

Pittsburgh Pirates - 69-93

True to form, I like the Reds as the 2010 NL Central sleeper.  I don't think they'll have enough to win the Wild Card, unfortunately, but they ought to set themselves up nicely for a run in 2011 when Chapman and Volquez are ready to go full season. I'm slightly more optimistic on the Brewers than PECOTA, simply on the strength of their offense.  Cubs fans, I think this is the year the team falls off a cliff.  It is the worst team in several years, and I think this losing season will usher in three to four years of playoff-less baseball on the North Side.  Sorry.  

My final thought concerns the Cardinals. I like St. Louis to win the war of attrition this year in the NL Central.  It's no surprise, really.  They have the best team, and they should win easily.  The only thing that concerns me is the health of Carpenter and Wainwright.  Since we've been making blind, bold predictions all offseason, I'll go out on a limb and say that one of them will spend significant time on the DL this year, and I think it will be Wainwright. 

Will this be the year that Wainwright is killed on the mound in a horrific pitching mechanics accident?  Probably not, no.  BUT MAYBE. If that doesn't happen, look for him to spend some time on the shelf with shoulder tendinitis.  

That's all for the NL Central.  Be sure to bookmark this so you can come back and taunt us in the comments when the Pirates win it all.  

2010 Year In Preview: Houston Astros

So we're going to be trying something out in the coming weeks, since there's plenty of time before the season starts. It's called Year In Preview, and we'll take a look at all 30 MLB teams and analyze what to expect from them in 2010. I got the idea because I've been thinking about Lance Berkman and the Houston Astros' situation this year. Does it make sense to trade him? What should they do to become competitive again? How far off are they? You get the idea. Without further ado...

Houston Astros

2009 Record: 74-88, 17GB of St. Louis

Key Departures: Unless you consider Jason Bourgeois to be "key", then none.

Key Additions: Brett Myers ($3.1M in 2010 w/ bonuses, 8M mutual option with 2M buyout for 2011), Pedro Feliz (1/$4.5M), and Brandon Lyon (3/$15M). The Lyon move has been widely panned as one of the worst of the offseason.

Talent En Route: Jason Castro is the top prospect in the Astros organization and split time between A and AA in 2009. He needs at least another year in the minors before being considered for a callup. Jiovanni Mier may be the Astros' best position player prospect, but he is only 18 and just completed his first professional season in Rookie Ball. Jordan Lyles may be the 'stros best pitching prospect, posting a 3.24 ERA over 144 IP with a 10.39 K/9 and a 2.36 BB/9 in Low A ball. He is several years away from having an impact as well but boasts promising upside (even if he is a bit old for Low A). Correction: Lyles is 19 years old, which is decidedly not too old for Low A. I miscalculated his age and appreciate the heads-up from the reader in the comments.

2011 Free Agency and Salary Outlook: Lance Berkman is the biggest question for Houston going into the 2010 season and 2010-2011 free agency period, as Roy Oswalt is signed through 2011 with a club option for 2012. The team has a 2011 club option for $15M on Berkman with a 2M buyout. Will they exercise it? Will they attempt to deal him at the 2010 deadline? Will they decline the option and let him walk?

The Future of the Astros: It's no secret that the Astros haven't been run well over the past few years. Management vacillates between committing to the youth movement and overpaying for veterans, and mediocre ones at that. As it stands right now, the Astros' 2010 rotation is Oswalt, Wandy, Brett Myers and a whole lotta nothing. There are a few bright spots in the offense with Carlos Lee, Berkman and Pence, but there are plenty of black holes elsewhere.

I can't see the Astros contending for a 2010 playoff spot. I can't see them contending for a 2011 playoff spot. Their MLB talent is shallow and aging, and their MiL talent is shallow and too young. I recommend dealing Berkman and burning the system to the ground. They need to restock their farm system and try to compete in 2011 and 2012. Of course, they won't. They'll continue to sign mediocre veterans and place 3rd or 4th in the NL Central for the foreseeable future. Astros' fans can thank Drayton.

One More for the Road: What would be a good destination for Berkman? I've come up with the following scenarios and why they would or wouldn't make sense.

Mets: Murphy is the starting 1B but the Mets seem to be out of dough.

Giants: The offense is a black hole. Berkman to the Giants makes tons of sense.

D'Backs: They've traded for a power bat midseason before (Dunn), and I have to wonder if they might consider making a move if they were in contention at the deadline.

Braves: Troy Glaus is the 1B, but the Braves seem to be in cost-cutting mode. If only they hadn't signed Lowe...

Seattle and Oakland: Both are possible AL West contenders in 2010, with Seattle being the early favorite, and both could want more thump at the deadline.

Alas, Drayton will probably keep the Puma, fail to offer him arby, and watch him walk in FA. We shall see...