2010 Year in Preview: NL Central Wrapup

Well, I just completed a writeup of the NL Central 2010 Year in Preview, clicked “Publish” and watched it disappear.  How frustrating.  Of course, no reader cares.  They just want to see the writeup.  I don’t blame you.  Here is a reconstituted, recreated, better-than-ever 2010 Year In Preview: NL Central.

Top Prospect: Aroldis Chapman.  We've covered him in detail time and again, most recently in my 2010 Year In Preview: Cincinnati Reds.  Chapman has already thrown a bullpen in the Reds Spring Training camp, and the video I saw looked exactly the same as the other video I’ve seen of him throwing.  His mechanics are still very raw, but apparently he was hitting 97 mph.  I don’t know if that’s true, but it’s worth passing along.  Three questions about Aroldis in 2010: 

1.  Where will he start the year? My money is on Double A. I don’t think there’s any chance that he starts higher than that.  He needs time to mature and work on his secondary offerings. 

2. When will Cincinnati call him up?  Since the Reds signed Chapman to a ML deal, I don’t believe there is any financial incentive towards keeping him in the Minors and limit his service time.  Thus, you have to think that the Reds will call him up when he is ready, and there is a need for him on the Major League Roster.  Given what the back end of their rotation looks like, I’m going to wager a very aggressive guess and say July 1^st. 

3. What will be the round that some idiot in your fantasy baseball league (over)drafts Chapman this year?  Depends on your league.  If you are in a pitching-heavy keeper league, then you might see Chapman go early.  If you’re in a standard, non-keeper league, then you might not see him drafted at all.  My league is more pitching-heavy, and it is a keeper league, so I’m expecting some idiot, perhaps AK, to draft Chapman in the 15th round.  Really looking forward to it. 

Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA Projected Standings

It's almost embarassing to reference PECOTA at this point.  Between the time that I write this and the time that you read this, PECOTA will have predicted the Yankees to win the division, changed it to the Red Sox, switched it to the Rays, then back to the Red Sox, then projected a three-way tie between the three.  Get it together, PECOTA!

St. Louis Cardinals - 89-73. 744 RS, 670 RA. .269/.343/.426. 

Chicago Cubs - 80-82. 734 RS, 746 RA. .269/.343/.423.

Cincinnati Reds - 77-85. 713 RS, 753 RA. .259/.334/.421

Houston Astros - 77-85. 712 RS, 755 RA. .269/.332/.418

Milwaukee Brewers - 77-85. 765 RS, 803 RA. .264/.339/.443

Pittsburgh Pirates - 72-90. 693 RS, 800 RA. .259/.330/.411. 

PECOTA likes the Cards to win the division in 2010 by virtue of the second-best offense and the best pitching/defense in the division. I have no problem with that, but if Wainwright or Carpenter get hurt, then their ability to hold down the RA is going to be greatly compromised.  

Interestingly, PECOTA sees the Cards as being the only team with an above-.500 record.  In second place we see the Cubs.  The projection is decidedly mediocre.  Only three games back from the Cubs there is a three-way tie between Cincy, Houston and the Brewers.  PECOTA sees Cincy and Houston as almost identical.  There are obvious similarities between the Reds and the Astros, in that their offenses are weak and are supported by a few standout players, and that their pitching staffs both have consistent veterans and high-upside guys, but I'll take the Reds over the Astros in 2010 any day.  I think the upside is far greater. The Brewers show that there's more than one way to skin a cat, and PECOTA likes them to bash their way to victory in 2010.  Unfortunately, their pitching after Gallardo and Wolf looks to be a decided liability. 

In last place, we see the Pirates.  Poor Pittsburgh.  One day your prince will come. 

As we complete our division previews, I want to look back and see which teams have the best and worst ranked offenses and pitching staffs.  We've completed the NL Central and the AL West. You may notice that some of the RS and RA are different from what I listed in the AL West Preview. This is because PECOTA has adjusted itself from the time I published the Preview.  I will always be using the most recent iteration. 

The BESTS

Best Offense: Texas Rangers, 840 RS. 2nd: Angels, 780. 3rd: Brewers, 765. 

The Rangers are looking to have an absolutely monster offense, going .280/.351/.468.  That's a team OPS of over .800.  I'm not surprised to see the Brewers on this list, but I am very surprised to see the Angels projected to score so many runs.  

Best Pitching/Defense: St. Louis Cardinals, 670 RA. 2nd: Seattle, 713. 3rd: Oakland, 736. 

It's an odd group.  Cardinals' run prevention ability comes primarily from their great pitching, headed by Wainwright and Carpenter.  Seattle's run prevention will come from a great 1-2 pitching punch in Felix and Lee, and also in spectacular defense.  Oakland doesn't have a 1-2 punch like either St. Louis or Seattle, and they don't have good defense either.  But they do have a bevy of above-average pitchers, and this depth may be the key to a good season RA total. 

The WORSTS

Worst Offense: Pittsburgh, 693 RS.  2nd: Houston, 712. 3rd: Cincy, 713. 

I'm a little surprised that neither Oakland nor Seattle made this list, but it could be the value of the DH. 

Worst Pitching: LA Angels, 835 RA (wow!). 2nd: Brewers, 800.  3rd: Pirates, 800.  

I am shocked, but happy, to see that the Angels have such an astronomically high RA.  When I did the 2010 Year in Preview, they were projected to allow 775 runs.  I have no idea what caused the increase, but I'll take it! 

In Which AK and (sic) Make Foolhardy, Ridiculous and Sure-To-Be-Wrong Predictions

AK, you have the floor...

St. Louis Cardinals (90-72) - With a healthy Wainwright/Carpenter duo coming back and the likes of Holliday and Pujols in the lineup, it's hard to bet against the Cards. If one of them were to get hurt, it would certainly change the outlook, but this is a pretty weak division and the Cardinals should have no problems wrapping this up early.

Chicago Cubs (83-79) - The only reason I am putting the Cubs second is because I didn't know who to choose between the Cubs, Brewers and Astros. The Cubs could contend if Ted Lilly doesn't miss too much time and pitches well upon return, but as it stands, their #1 and #2 is Zambrano and Dempster and that's just not going to cut it. Plus, on the field, this team is starting to look old.

Milwaukee Brewers (81-81) - As I wrote in my analysis of the Brewers, the starting rotation is brutal. You have Gallardo and then 4 back-end starters. The only thing that can save this team is offense and I fear that they will not have enough. In two years I see Fielder gone and Braun demanding a trade...

Houston Astros (80-82) - I could be way off about the Astros, Oswalt is Oswalt, Wandy Rodriguez could return to early-2009 form and Brett Myers is in a new place with reason to impress. The offense will be decent and if the pitching follows, the Astros will be better than I am projecting them at.

Cincinnati Reds (76-86) - As (sic) pointed out to me, I've got no love for the Reds. There are too many 'ifs' here for me, if everything goes right they're contenders, but if not, no dice and, thankfully for Reds fans, they'll probably get a new manager out of it.

Pittsburgh Pirates (70-92) - A bunch of moves, all smoke, this team will likely be out of it by the all-star break, if not sooner.

(sic)'s note: I'm willing to wait a year on the Reds breaking out if it means no more Dusty.  

I hate you Dusty. 

My turn: 

St. Louis Cardinals - 86-76

Cincinnati Reds - 80-82

Milwaukee Brewers - 80-82

Chicago Cubs - 78-84

Houston Astros - 75-87

Pittsburgh Pirates - 69-93

True to form, I like the Reds as the 2010 NL Central sleeper.  I don't think they'll have enough to win the Wild Card, unfortunately, but they ought to set themselves up nicely for a run in 2011 when Chapman and Volquez are ready to go full season. I'm slightly more optimistic on the Brewers than PECOTA, simply on the strength of their offense.  Cubs fans, I think this is the year the team falls off a cliff.  It is the worst team in several years, and I think this losing season will usher in three to four years of playoff-less baseball on the North Side.  Sorry.  

My final thought concerns the Cardinals. I like St. Louis to win the war of attrition this year in the NL Central.  It's no surprise, really.  They have the best team, and they should win easily.  The only thing that concerns me is the health of Carpenter and Wainwright.  Since we've been making blind, bold predictions all offseason, I'll go out on a limb and say that one of them will spend significant time on the DL this year, and I think it will be Wainwright. 

Will this be the year that Wainwright is killed on the mound in a horrific pitching mechanics accident?  Probably not, no.  BUT MAYBE. If that doesn't happen, look for him to spend some time on the shelf with shoulder tendinitis.  

That's all for the NL Central.  Be sure to bookmark this so you can come back and taunt us in the comments when the Pirates win it all.  

2010 Year In Preview: Cincinnati Reds

Cincinnati Reds. You are over 125 years old. You are forty years older than the Pittsburgh Steelers. You are eighty years older than the Chicago Bulls and the New Orleans Saints. You've been around 10 times longer than the Jacksonville Jaguars. You are an old franchise. You've been around the block. You were once the Big Red Machine. You've endured the Marge Schott era, the Black Sox scandal and the scourge that is Dusty Baker. One of the best players of all time donned your uniform, and MLB pretends like he doesn't even exist. In my day, you've meant Ken Griffey Jr, Rob Dibble, Barry Larkin and Luis Sojo. I've never hated you, and that's saying something. Will this year be your year, Cincinnati? Probably not. But you never know, and I think you have greater potential to surprise than a lot of teams realize.



2009 Record: 78-84, 13 GB the overrated St. Louis Cardinals. -50 Run Differential.

Key Departures: Jeremy Affeldt, Paul Bako, Josh Fogg.

Key Additions: Orlando Cabrera ($3M/1), Jose Arredondo, Miguel Cairo and some dude named Aroldis Chapman ($30M/6).

Talent En Route: I'd be remiss not to start with Aroldis Chapman.



You don't need me to rehearse the details on Chapman. He was the international FA signing of the offseason, a raw lefty with the ability to hit 100 mph on the gun. He has talent. No one knows what to expect from him, but BP ranks him a 5-star prospect, and says that he's bound for Double-A Carolina soon. Where he goes from there is anyone's guess. His fastball is a superb pitch; whether he has the secondary pitches necessary to become a frontline starter remains to be seen.

BP ranks Mike Leake, RHP and Todd Frazier, INF, as the Reds 4-Star Prospects. Leake is a polished, undersized righty from Arizona State and was the Reds' first round pick in 2009. He figures to shoot up the organizational ladder this year and will probably begin in High-A or Double-A. Frazier is a solid bat with no defensive home. He has spent time at second and third base, but is blocked by Phillips and Rolen in the bigs. His bat is almost major-league ready, so Goldstein notes that he may spend time the OF this year, "in order to get his bat in the big leagues as soon as possible."

The Reds also have Yonder Alonso due to start the year in Double-A. Alonso was the Reds top-2008 pick, and is friends with Alex Rodriguez, interestingly. He had an injury-filled 2009 campaign, and should develop into a solid 1B bat. The Reds already have a solid 1B bat, so Alonso may become trade bait if he is able to put together a good showing in 2010.

2011 Free Agency and Salary Outlook: The Reds are due to go into the 2010 year with a 75M payroll. They have 40M committed already for 2011. Of that 40M, 34 of it is tied up in 4 players: Rolen (8M), Cordero (12M), Phillips (11M) and Chapman (3.7M). Aaron Harang has a club option of 12.75M in 2011, with a 2M buyout, and Arroyo has an 11M club option in 2011 with a 2M buyout. Additionally, Cueto, Volquez and Votto will become arbitration-eligible for the first time.

Are there any obvious targets for the Reds going into 2011 Free Agency? Honestly, it all depends on how the team performs in 2010.

The Future of the Reds: The Reds are one of the most intriguing teams going into 2010, and I won't be surprised to see them get pre-season hype as a sleeper. Let's break down why:

Rotation: Their rotation has decent depth with Harang, Arroyo, Cueto and Bailey. Harang and Arroyo are going to provide quality innings, and both Cueto and Bailey have decent upside. It's also possible that the Reds could get decent mid-season boosts from either Edinson Volquez, who is recovering from TJ surgery, or Aroldis Chapman, or both. Best case scenario: Harang and Arroyo do what they've always done, Cueto has a bounceback year and pitches to his talent, and one of Volquez, Bailey or Chapman is able to give Cincy decent innings. If that happens, the Reds could have the best rotation in the NL Central, save maybe St. Louis. Realistic? No. But there is tons of upside in Cincy's rotation.

Infield: The signing of Orlando Cabrera to play SS provides them with decent pop in what has been a black hole for Cincinnati. The Reds will also be looking for solid contribution from Rolen, Votto and Phillips. PECOTA loves Votto this year; not so much Rolen. Best case scenario: Rolen stays healthy and combines with Cabrera to provide above-replacement-level offense and decent defense, and Phillips and Votto mash as usual. Realistic? Maybe not so much on Rolen, but there's reason to be optimistic on the other three.

Outfield: The Reds will be looking at an OF of Dickerson, Stubbs and Jay Bruce. I thought the Reds might make a play for Johnny Damon to play LF, but apparently they weren't interested. I'm not sold on Dickerson, and the Reds are betting heavily on Jay Bruce to bounce back in 2010. Best case scenario: Bruce bounces back, Stubbs and Dickerson give tolerable offensive output. Realistic? Maybe. Bruce was the victim of a very low BABIP before getting injured, and he was the best prospect in baseball not long ago.

There are enough pieces in Cincinnati for me to designate them my 2010 sleeper. Of course, virtually everything has to go right - Harang, Arroyo and Cueto must stay healthy, Bailey and Bruce have to take another step forward, Volquez needs to regain 2008 form, and it would be nice if Chapman was ready for the Bigs by September. The Reds might still be a year away, though. If they fall out of contention by the trade deadline, I wonder if they might try to move Cordero, Harang or Arroyo, or even Phillips to make room for Frazier. If they could get another cheap OF bat, or clear salary in preparation for a FA signing, they might be better prepared for 2011.

Cincinnati Reds. Don't sleep on them.