As much as I was looking forward to the end of the regular season this year I have to admit, I've actually kinda missed being able to check up on the Twins everyday. I don't miss the feeling of loss after loss, but I miss the day-to-day. Fortunately, this year's MLB playoffs have been REALLY good and have been filled with major market schadenfreude which has been medicine for my weary baseball soul. I'm very pleased with the 4 teams that remain and I was really happy for Milwaukee fans who saw their baseball team snatch a Game 5 victory from the clutches of defeat in winning their first playoff series since 1982. I was born in 1983 so to think that in my entire lifetime, the Brew Crew hadn't won a playoff series...wow, this is big. I really like their team too, the combination of power and hustle, scrap and confidence,...and their swagger is undeniable. I like their rotation, I like their bullpen and if they go on to win the World Series, I think I might even have a smile on my face.
Anyway, I didn't put my pen to paper to write about the post-season, plenty of others are writing much more meaningful pieces. The purpose of my piece today is more obligation, but calling it 'obligation' gives it the wrong connotation. As a part of the Baseball Bloggers Alliance (BBA) we are asked to cast our votes every year for various awards and then those votes are compiled amongst all the blogs in the network and the network as a whole comes out with it's winners. This has already been done for manager of the year (Connie Mack Award) which you can check out here. For my part, I'd like to take on a couple of Awards, notable the "Walter Johnson" Award (honoring the best SPs) and the "Stan Musial" (honoring the MVPs). Since we are a Minnesota Twins blog, we vote for the American League winners of these awards.
Walter Johnson Award - Best Starting Pitcher (AL)
The Walter Johnson Award uses a 5-3-1 point system so we are supposed to vote for our 1st, 2nd and 3rd place vote getters which makes this whole process a little more interesting if you ask me.
1st Place: Justin Verlander (5 points)
I've trolled my Yankee followers on Twitter a little bit lately suggesting that Verlander was a 'no doubt' winner of this Award despite the fantastic, but under appreciated season that Yankee ace CC Sabathia had. That said, Verlander had a super-human season and I don't see you could give the award to anyone else. First, the vitals:
24 Wins (not really important, but hey, it's a lot of wins for a single-season)
2.40 ERA - Lead the AL
0.920 WHIP - Lead the Majors
2.99 FIP - 4nd in the AL
3.12 xFIP - 2nd in the AL
251.0 IP - Lead the Majors
250 Ks - Lead the Majors
4.39 K/BB ratio - 2nd in the AL
2.84 SIERA - Lead the AL
5.14 WPA - Lead the Majors
7.0 WAR - 2nd in the AL
The argument for Verlander is pretty convincing. He helped his team run away with the AL Central crown, he was dominant from start to finish, and he lead the Majors in a few of the more important measures of pitching success.
2nd Place: CC Sabathia (3 points)
I already alluded to it earlier but this should come as no surprise. CC actually was worth 7.1 WAR this season which was. 0.1 more than Verlander and also out-pitched Verlander in FIP (2.88) and xFIP (3.02). Pro-CC people will argue that it should be taken into consideration that CC also pitches in the AL East and is therefore facing tougher opponents on a more regular basis. I would say that's a legitimate point, but who a pitcher faces is nothing that the pitcher can determine so what division a given pitcher is in cannot be used as criteria for an award. CCs reward for a great season will be either a) 5 more seasons at $23M per in New York or b) a HUGE free-agent deal somewhere else.
3rd Place: James Shields (1 point)
I'm going out on a limb a little for my 3rd place selection. What I am most impressed with about Shields season was all of the complete games...11 of them to be precise, which led all of Major League Baseball. For a guy who had never been a dominant pitcher, Shields had a breakout year of sorts winning a career-high 16 games with career bests in ERA (2.82), IP (249.1), WHIP (1.04), Ks (225), and WAR (4.9). I will say that Shields had an awfully "lucky" season considering his BABIP was .258 while his career average for that category sits at (.299). That will occasionally happen with ground-ball heavy pitchers though and for this season, it no-doubt worked in Shields' favor.
Stan Musial Award - AL MVP
Here is my list of my top 10 with a general discussion at the end.
1. Curtis Granderson (13 points)
2. Jacoby Ellsbury (9 points)
3. Miguel Cabrera (8 points)
4. Ian Kinsler (7 points)
5. Dustin Pedroia (6 points)
6. Jose Bautista (5 points)
7. Justin Verlander (4 points)
8. CC Sabathia (3 points)
9. Alex Gordon (2 points)
10. Ben Zobrist (1 point)
If I'm going strictly off of WAR (Wins Above Replacement) values, then Ellsbury wins this award running away...but in considering "valuable-ness", Granderson gets my nod. The Red Sox were/are absolutely loaded with talent. Among the WAR leaders, the Red Sox have 3 of the top 9 players (Ellsbury, Pedroia, A. Gonzalez). The Yankees are also loaded with talent, but not to that degree having only 2 players in the top 13 (Granderson & Cano). In a year in which A-Rod was not himself and Teixeira was streaky, Granderson was the constant producer setting career highs in Runs, RBIs, HRs, BBs and OPS all while committing only 3 errors in the field all year next to a dozen highlight-reel catches. Granderson's 7.0 WAR pales in comparison to Ellsbury's 9.4, but to me Granderson was more valuable in the sense that his team really needed his production to win.
I had a couple pitchers on my MVP ballot, though to be clear I would not have put them anywhere near the top. I've talked about this before (mostly on Twitter) but I feel that the MVP award name should be changed to Best Offensive Player. Keep the Cy Young Award as "the best pitcher" and make MVP the best hitter award. "Value" is to subjective and I don't think great offensive seasons should be ignored, much like Alex Gordon's was, simply because the player is stuck on a bad team. In the same way that the team a given pitcher plays for should not factor into the discussion for the Cy Young Award, the team a hitter plays for and whether or not that team makes the playoffs should not factor into their selection as the best hitter.
Anyway, that's enough pontificating for now. I hope to post more regularly here this off-season. My job has changed a bit in the sense that I have less and less time to blog about the Twins, but I am going to try my hardest to keep the discussion going here. It should be an exciting off-season!
Showing posts with label Detroit Tigers. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Detroit Tigers. Show all posts
Monday, October 10, 2011
Monday, February 7, 2011
Previewing the AL Central: Detroit Tigers
2010 Record: 81-81; 3rd place, 13GB the 1st place Minnesota Twins
Key Departures:
The Tigers didn't really lose anyone who was integral to the team last year, they lost a few role players, here's a brief list:
* Johnny Damon
* Armando Galarraga
* Gerald Laird
* Adam Everett
* Jeremy Bonderman
* Bobby Seay
Damon is easily the headliner of this group, though I doubt the Tigers will miss him much. He has the knack for a big hit now and again, but he has become slow and is only an average outfielder, plus he's becoming injury prone at this stage of his career. Laird is a handy utility man, but again, nothing more than a role player. Jeremy Bonderman could very well re-sign, though at this point it looks like he may be going to the Indians. Seay is also a free-agent, so who knows. Galarraga, who now lives in eternal baseball lore, was traded to the Diamondbacks, but much like the bats of the hitters he faced, he won't be missed. Bottom-line: the Tigers didn't lose much this off-season.
Key Additions:
I like what the Tigers have added this off-season and I'm somewhat jealous.
Victor Martinez - FA - BOS
Martinez signed a tidy 4-year, $50M deal and will likely split time between DH and Catcher this season. Probably most importantly though, he will provide some serious lineup protection for Miguel Cabrera, making the Tiger offense quite potent. Martinez' ability to play a position will also allow the Tigers to spell Magglio Ordonez from time to time which should keep him healthier. At 31, Martinez should still have some good years left in him and at $12.5M per, he wouldn't be too hard to trade either if Detroit chose to go a different direction in a couple of years. I think it was a good move for them on a lot of fronts.
Joaquin Benoit - FA - TAM
Is there a more fun name to say in the Major Leagues? The Tigers took quite a gamble with this move in a number of ways, first, they gave him a 3-year ($16.5M) deal...he's already 31 years old. Also, aside from last season with Tampa Bay, Benoit has never been a particularly dominant pitcher. He has a career 4.47 ERA and last year's mark of 11.2 K/9 far overshadows his career 8.5 K/9 average. I'm not gonna knock the guy, he had a fantastic year but it simply does not merit such a contract. Who knows, maybe Benoit recaptures last year's magic, but more than likely he'll return to being an average reliever and Detroit will be saddled with an annual $5.5M salary for the next three seasons.
Brad Penny - FA - STL
This was another solid move by the Tigers. On December 8th, they finalized a one-year, $3M deal with Penny with an additional $3M in incentives. Penny is nothing special, but the Tigers really only need back-of-the-rotation help and Penny will fill that role just fine. If it's true that Penny is healthy entering this season, $3M could be a steal.
Coming Up on the Farm:
Though the Tigers have made a lot of moves in the past few years, it hasn't resulted in a very deep farm system. In fact, the Tigers had zero 1st round picks in last year's draft and boast only a select few high-caliber prospects. Here's a couple of their best:
Jacob Turner - RHP
Turner was drafted in 2009 out of Westminster Christian HS (different one than A-Rod) and did well in his first professional season, splitting his year between Low-A and High-A ball. In ~115 innings, he compiled a 3.28ERA, 1.11 WHIP to go along with a very impressive 4.43 K/BB ratio. At 6'5" and 210lbs., he certainly has the frame to support a power arm, and he's young (19 years old) so he'll have plenty of time to develop complimentary pitches. I suspect the Tigers will not rush him along, so realistically we're looking at 2012-13 for his debut on the big stage.
Nick Castellanos - 3B
Nick is probably the only other Tiger prospect worth a whole lot of excitement over. He was drafted out HS in this past year's supplemental draft and because of signing demands he made, he fell quite a bit. He projects as a good hitter and fielder, though he's only played 7 games at Rookie Level, so we'll have to wait till he plays a full season a Low-A/High-A before we can pass more informed judgments. He's worth watching, Baseball Prospectus says, "Many scouts saw Castellanos as the best pure high school hitter in the draft. Despite his tall frame and long arms, his trigger-free swing gets into the zone quickly, and stays there a long time. He should develop power as his body fills out, and although he's not a monster athlete, he is an average runner once he gets going."
The Future of the Tigers:
Who can really say? I can't count how many times I've thought, "man, the Tigers look good this year," only to see them fade away mid-season, doomed to another .500 season. I wouldn't be surprised if Jim Leyland's seat gets a little hotter this season. Management gave him a couple of new, expensive toys and he has the nucleus of talent (Cabrera, Verlander, etc) to make a run at a division title...but he's had that nucleus now for a few seasons and hasn't been able to do much with it. This is Leyland's last season under contract, so if the Tigers once again fall short, he might just be shown the door.
As far as the talent on the field goes, it's there. Miguel Cabrera is a great hitter to build a lineup around and with the addition of V-Mart, the Tigers have to potential to be offensively virile. Austin Jackson and Brennan Boesch will have to prove that their 2010 seasons weren't flukes...I think Jackson has a great shot to prove it, I think it will be more difficult on Boesch. How much would the Tigers love to see Rick Porcello bounce back? Verlander will highlight the rotation once again, followed up by Max Scherzer, Porcello, Penny and a likely Triple-A callup (early indications point to Alfredo Figaro or Andy Oliver).
The future of the Tigers is somewhat murky. Their farm system isn't particularly deep, but they have a good young group of players that they can build on. Boesch, Jackson, Porcello, Cabrera (still only 27), Scherzer, Avila; all are good looking youngsters with a little bit of Major League experience already under their belts. I guess the Tigers fortunes will go as those players go, if they continue to produce, the Tigers will be there, if not, they'll continue to be a mediocre team.
Monday, August 30, 2010
Previewing Tigers v. Twins
Wow is it good to be home or what? The Twins as a team seemed to hit the skids offensively over the recently-ended 7 game road-trip that mercifully saw them go 3-4. The team has been much better offensively at home, here's a couple players that perform much better at Target Field:
Denard Span
Home: .324/.399/.411
Away: .222/.281/.301
O-Dog
Home: .291/.391/.429
Away: .279/.330/.385
Delmon Young
Home: .327/.353/.500
Away: .289/.321/.490
bit of a Sample Size problem here, but Danny Valencia
Home: .413/.447/.550
Away: .258/.313/.350
The Twins have a number of things working in their favor against Detroit. Here's some highlights.
1.) The Tigers are a terrible road team. The Twins are a mediocre 35-34 on the road but they look like world beaters compared to the Tigers who have a 22-41 road record. To put that in perspective a little bit, Detroit is the 6th worst team in baseball on the road and only the Diamondbacks, Nationals, Mariners, Orioles and Pirates have worse road records. Conversely, the Twins have the 4th best home record in baseball at 40-22 and are starting a very welcome 9-game home stand.
2.) The pitching match-ups appear quite favorable. Tomorrow features Brian Duensing for the Twins vs. Armando Galarraga for the Tigers. Galarraga has pitched well over his last couple of outings, but has a brutal 6.44 road ERA this year and Twins hitters have eaten him alive with a .302/.406/.491 career-against line.Wednesday's game pits Detroit's Max Scherzer vs. Francisco Liriano for the Twins. Scherzer has been pitching very well of late winning 3 out of his past 4 starts and lowering his ERA to a season-low 3.60. That said, in two starts against the Twins this year, he's been rocked for 18 hits and 16 runs in 8 innings. Thursday's game looks like the most difficult on paper for the Twins as the Tigers throw out Justin Verlander against Scott Baker for the Twins. Verlander has a pedestrian 4.53 road ERA this season but owns a 1.64 ERA against the Twins in two starts this year. Many of the Twins hitters have good averages against Verlander and it's worth noting that this will be Verlander's first road start against the Twins this season.
3.) The Twins have something to play for, the Tigers do not. At 10 games back with 31 games to go, the Tigers are effectively done. I know everyone wants to make something for the "spoiler" teams in baseball, those teams who are essentially out of it who somehow derive some satisfaction from bringing down the teams in contention. These guys get paid TONS OF MONEY to play, I doubt there is much more motivation than that. With the Sox playing Cleveland, the the Twins have every reason to play these games at 100% to preserve or grow that precious 4.5 game division lead. There was a slightly simplistic, but decent article by Howard Sinker today at the Star Tribune about that 4.5 game lead, check it out if you have a couple minutes.
4.) The Twins are a very good against AL Central opponents. With a 33-18 record against AL Central foes, the Twins set themselves apart as every other AL Central team has a losing record in the division. Detroit is 24-26 in the division and have lost 7 out of 12 games against the Twins this year. Minnesota has also won 5 of 6 games against Detroit at home so far this year.
I fully expect the Twins to play well in this series which would be a nice confidence boost headed into the weekend and a 3-game set with the Rangers. I keep checking everyday for updates on Justin Morneau, I wish there was some news of an upcoming rehab stint or something, but no...nothing. Blackburn was incredible on Saturday and gives me hope that he can keep it up. I'd love to see the Twins with at least a 5-7 game lead headed into their series with the White Sox next week, I think that would be quite comfortable and set the stage for a knockout punch. Go Twins.
Denard Span
Home: .324/.399/.411
Away: .222/.281/.301
O-Dog
Home: .291/.391/.429
Away: .279/.330/.385
Delmon Young
Home: .327/.353/.500
Away: .289/.321/.490
bit of a Sample Size problem here, but Danny Valencia
Home: .413/.447/.550
Away: .258/.313/.350
The Twins have a number of things working in their favor against Detroit. Here's some highlights.
1.) The Tigers are a terrible road team. The Twins are a mediocre 35-34 on the road but they look like world beaters compared to the Tigers who have a 22-41 road record. To put that in perspective a little bit, Detroit is the 6th worst team in baseball on the road and only the Diamondbacks, Nationals, Mariners, Orioles and Pirates have worse road records. Conversely, the Twins have the 4th best home record in baseball at 40-22 and are starting a very welcome 9-game home stand.
2.) The pitching match-ups appear quite favorable. Tomorrow features Brian Duensing for the Twins vs. Armando Galarraga for the Tigers. Galarraga has pitched well over his last couple of outings, but has a brutal 6.44 road ERA this year and Twins hitters have eaten him alive with a .302/.406/.491 career-against line.Wednesday's game pits Detroit's Max Scherzer vs. Francisco Liriano for the Twins. Scherzer has been pitching very well of late winning 3 out of his past 4 starts and lowering his ERA to a season-low 3.60. That said, in two starts against the Twins this year, he's been rocked for 18 hits and 16 runs in 8 innings. Thursday's game looks like the most difficult on paper for the Twins as the Tigers throw out Justin Verlander against Scott Baker for the Twins. Verlander has a pedestrian 4.53 road ERA this season but owns a 1.64 ERA against the Twins in two starts this year. Many of the Twins hitters have good averages against Verlander and it's worth noting that this will be Verlander's first road start against the Twins this season.
3.) The Twins have something to play for, the Tigers do not. At 10 games back with 31 games to go, the Tigers are effectively done. I know everyone wants to make something for the "spoiler" teams in baseball, those teams who are essentially out of it who somehow derive some satisfaction from bringing down the teams in contention. These guys get paid TONS OF MONEY to play, I doubt there is much more motivation than that. With the Sox playing Cleveland, the the Twins have every reason to play these games at 100% to preserve or grow that precious 4.5 game division lead. There was a slightly simplistic, but decent article by Howard Sinker today at the Star Tribune about that 4.5 game lead, check it out if you have a couple minutes.
4.) The Twins are a very good against AL Central opponents. With a 33-18 record against AL Central foes, the Twins set themselves apart as every other AL Central team has a losing record in the division. Detroit is 24-26 in the division and have lost 7 out of 12 games against the Twins this year. Minnesota has also won 5 of 6 games against Detroit at home so far this year.
I fully expect the Twins to play well in this series which would be a nice confidence boost headed into the weekend and a 3-game set with the Rangers. I keep checking everyday for updates on Justin Morneau, I wish there was some news of an upcoming rehab stint or something, but no...nothing. Blackburn was incredible on Saturday and gives me hope that he can keep it up. I'd love to see the Twins with at least a 5-7 game lead headed into their series with the White Sox next week, I think that would be quite comfortable and set the stage for a knockout punch. Go Twins.
Tuesday, March 2, 2010
2010 Year in Preview: Detroit Tigers
Deeeee-troit Tigers!
We last left Detroit losing Game 163 to the Minnesota Twins. You will recall that the night prior to this game was a bit interesting for Miguel Cabrera, who was arrested after getting in a domestic violence dispute and registering a BAC of 0.26. Dombrowski picked Cabrera up at the jail the next day, which was nice of him. My back-of-the-envelope calculations tell me that Cabrera was probably not sober by the 1 pm game time. He went 0-5.
EDIT: Just wanted to say that going 0-5 when you're intoxicated means you're no Doc Ellis.
Miguel Cabrera has since given up drinking, but wants everyone to know that he isn't an alcoholic. Glad we got that cleared up.
2009 Record: 86-77, 2nd in the AL Central. That last loss hurt the worst, I'd imagine.
Key Departures: Buckle your seatbelts.
The Tigers' biggest move this offseason was the trade of Curtis Granderson and Edwin Jackson in a blockbuster deal between the Yankees, Diamondbacks and Tigers.
The Yankees sent RHP Ian Kennedy to the Diamondbacks and CF Austin Jackson and LHP Phil Coke to the Tigers. The Tigers sent CF Curtis Granderson to the Yankees and RHP Edwin Jackson to the Diamondbacks. The Diamondbacks sent RHP Daniel Schlereth, son of ESPN analyst Mark Schlereth, and RHP Max Scherzer to the Tigers.
Jackson, Schlereth and Scherzer will all be under team control for six years, and Phil Coke is under team control for 5 years. The Yankees assumed Granderson's deal, which pays him $5.5M in 2010, $8.25M in 2011 and $10M in 2012. Jackson was arbitration-eligible for the first time this year.
The deal between the Tigers, Diamondbacks and the Yankees was about cost-reduction for the Tigers. They jettisoned two increasingly-expensive players in the hopes of replacing this production with cheap talent. I don't think Austin Jackson is ready to play CF for the Tigers, but we'll have to wait and see.
Key Additions: After saving Granderson and Jackson's 2010 salary, the Tigers didn't sign a single FA. They pocketed the difference in the face of declining revenue in a city in which unemployment is high and ticket sales are low.
Huh. Well, this is awkward.
The Tigers signed Johnny Damon to a one-year, $8MM contract. I won't go into all the backstory on the failed negotations between the Yankees and Damon, but I will say that I think it is pretty clear that Boras put the interests of Matt Holliday ahead of Damon. I was surprised that Boras was able to get Damon an 8MM deal after all other bidders had dropped out, but I do think that Damon would be better served with another agent going forward. It was a conflict of interest for Boras, and Damon got the shaft.
I don't hate the moves the Tigers made this offseason. They dealt Granderson while his value was relatively high, and replaced him with Austin Jackson, who could become a valuable piece. They sold high on Edwin Jackson, whose ERA started to align more closely with his FIP in the second-half of last year, and acquired the fire-balling Max Scherzer, who is considerably cheaper than Jackson They also got Schlereth and Coke, both of whom should be valuable bullpen pieces. Sure, their 2010 payroll is going to look a lot like their 2009 payroll, but they have acquired cheap talent for the coming years and increased their flexibility going forward.
The two biggest weaknesses I see with this plan are as follows:
1. Austin Jackson is not MLB ready.
I'm a big AJax fan. I've followed his career since the Yankees drafted him in 2005. I was happy to see him sign and break a commitment to play hoops at Georgia Tech. He was our premium position player prospect for many years, and I figured he would break into the bigs in September of 2010 or April 2011. He's not ready now, though. Sure, his stats aren't too too ugly. Why, look at that .300 batting average! You can't be a bad hitter and have a .300 batting average!
While that might be true generally, his .300 BA doesn't begin to tell the full story. For one, his batting average was artificially inflated by a .384 BABIP. This is insanely high. Additionally, Jackson displayed little power in his time in AAA Scranton, posting the lowest ISO of his career (.105) and putting up a SLG of .405. This meant that Jackson's OPS was .759 in AAA in 2009. Additionally, Jackson posted a Mike Cameron-esque K% of 24.4%. This is too high.
So you have a few problems, really. Jackson's AVG was inflated by an artifically high BABIP, and so he should see some regression in 2010. Secondly, Jackson isn't showing the kind of power you would like to see from your CFer. Thirdly, Jackson strikes out too much.
He may never fix his strikeout problem, but another year of seasoning in AAA might see him develop a little more power. This is what I would do with Jackson, and it's what the Yankees were planning on doing. The Tigers are planning on giving him the Opening Day CF job. I can't see the wisdom of this. CHONE projects Jackson to have a .265/.320/.387 line in 2010, and I think that's a bit generous.
2. Johnny Damon needs Yankee Stadium.
Since this is already running a bit long, I'll get to the point. Johnny Damon posted a .279/.382/.533 line in Yankee Stadium in 2009 and put up a .284/.349/.446 line everywhere else. That's a .915 OPS at home and a .795 away. For comparative purposes, Johnny Damon was Chase Utley in Yankee Stadium, and Kosuke Fukudome everywhere else.
That's just one part of the equation. Damon put up a -9.2 UZR as a LF in 2009. Now, with UZR it's wise to take at least three years of data into consideration, and in 2007 and 2008 Damon posted a 7.5 and 6.7 UZR, respectively, although he only played 32 games in LF in 2007. So, that looks to be a bit of a wash, but it has to be a concern for Tigers fans. If Damon's defense is declining, which would be a reasonable assumption given his age, how will he fare in Detroit's Comerica Park, which is far more cavernous than Yankee Stadium?
One last FA signing of note: the Tigers signed Jose Valverde to be their closer. I'm not crazy about it, but the terms of the deal ($14M/2) aren't too horrific, and Valverde should be a decent late-inning option.
Talent En Route
The Tigers have a decent arsenal of high-quality pitching and position players in their system. There's a lot to be excited about, particularly RHP Jacob Turner, their 1st round pick in the 2009 MLB Amateur Draft. Baseball Prospectus had this to say about Turner:
Let's see. Hard-throwing RHP with a sizzling fastball, knee-buckling curve and show-me change? Who does that sound like?
Bingo. Turner will make his pro debut in 2010, probably in Low-A ball. Another name to watch in the Tigers' system is LHP Casey Crosby, who is coming back from Tommy John surgery. BP notes that Crosby can touch 97 mph consistently with his fastball, and profiles as a top-of-the-rotation starter or a power-lefty closer. I think Detroit would take either, no? Crosby will start 2010 in High-A Lakeland.
The last name to note is 2B Scott Sizemore, a hard-hitting infield prospect on the verge of hitting the big leagues in 2010. Sizemore posted a .307/.402/.535 in Double A and .308/.378/.473 in Triple A. His defense is scouted as subpar, but his bat is solid and he should hit at the major league level when the Tigers give him the opportunity.
2011 Free Agency and Salary Outlook
Via the invaluable Cot's Baseball Contracts, we see that the Tigers have 55M committed to the 2011 payroll. $32M of that will go to Cabrera and Verlander, money well-spent, and $20M of it will go to Guillen and Valverde. Money...less well-spent. Galarraga and Rayburn will also be arb-eligible for the first time in 2011, and Zumaya and Miner should see significant raises as well.
One more detail, which I found interesting, is that Porcello could theoretically become a free agent in 2011. He'll make almost $2M in 2010, and the Tigers have two club options on him for 2011 and 2012. If he seems awfully young to be hitting free agency, it's because he is. This is the downside to signing your 1st round picks to ML contracts.
If you assume that Sizemore takes the 2B job sometime in 2010, the Tigers will have Cabrera and Sizemore manning the left-side of the infield in 2011. Both the SS and 3B (Everett and Inge) will hit the FA market in 2011. The Tigers will also need a new LF, provided they don't resign Johnny Damon, and they may need a new RF if Ordonez's option doesn't vest. Gerald Laird is also a FA in 2011.
The Future of the Tigers
The Tigers are an interesting case. They have a superstar in Miguel Cabrera and some young, cheap position player talent in Sizemore and Jackson. They have a bona fide ace in Justin Verlander, an ace-in-the-making in Rick Porcello, and some injury-prone, high-upside guys like Jeremy Bonderman. While I questioned their decision to trade Granderson initially, I think Dombrowski is doing a decent job of fielding a competitive team in 2010 while increasing payroll flexibility going forward. Given where the Tigers play, and the uncertainty of gate revenue going forward, this may prove to be a very wise decision.
We last left Detroit losing Game 163 to the Minnesota Twins. You will recall that the night prior to this game was a bit interesting for Miguel Cabrera, who was arrested after getting in a domestic violence dispute and registering a BAC of 0.26. Dombrowski picked Cabrera up at the jail the next day, which was nice of him. My back-of-the-envelope calculations tell me that Cabrera was probably not sober by the 1 pm game time. He went 0-5.
EDIT: Just wanted to say that going 0-5 when you're intoxicated means you're no Doc Ellis.
Miguel Cabrera has since given up drinking, but wants everyone to know that he isn't an alcoholic. Glad we got that cleared up.
2009 Record: 86-77, 2nd in the AL Central. That last loss hurt the worst, I'd imagine.
Key Departures: Buckle your seatbelts.
The Tigers' biggest move this offseason was the trade of Curtis Granderson and Edwin Jackson in a blockbuster deal between the Yankees, Diamondbacks and Tigers.
The Yankees sent RHP Ian Kennedy to the Diamondbacks and CF Austin Jackson and LHP Phil Coke to the Tigers. The Tigers sent CF Curtis Granderson to the Yankees and RHP Edwin Jackson to the Diamondbacks. The Diamondbacks sent RHP Daniel Schlereth, son of ESPN analyst Mark Schlereth, and RHP Max Scherzer to the Tigers.
Jackson, Schlereth and Scherzer will all be under team control for six years, and Phil Coke is under team control for 5 years. The Yankees assumed Granderson's deal, which pays him $5.5M in 2010, $8.25M in 2011 and $10M in 2012. Jackson was arbitration-eligible for the first time this year.
The deal between the Tigers, Diamondbacks and the Yankees was about cost-reduction for the Tigers. They jettisoned two increasingly-expensive players in the hopes of replacing this production with cheap talent. I don't think Austin Jackson is ready to play CF for the Tigers, but we'll have to wait and see.
Key Additions: After saving Granderson and Jackson's 2010 salary, the Tigers didn't sign a single FA. They pocketed the difference in the face of declining revenue in a city in which unemployment is high and ticket sales are low.
Huh. Well, this is awkward.
The Tigers signed Johnny Damon to a one-year, $8MM contract. I won't go into all the backstory on the failed negotations between the Yankees and Damon, but I will say that I think it is pretty clear that Boras put the interests of Matt Holliday ahead of Damon. I was surprised that Boras was able to get Damon an 8MM deal after all other bidders had dropped out, but I do think that Damon would be better served with another agent going forward. It was a conflict of interest for Boras, and Damon got the shaft.
I don't hate the moves the Tigers made this offseason. They dealt Granderson while his value was relatively high, and replaced him with Austin Jackson, who could become a valuable piece. They sold high on Edwin Jackson, whose ERA started to align more closely with his FIP in the second-half of last year, and acquired the fire-balling Max Scherzer, who is considerably cheaper than Jackson They also got Schlereth and Coke, both of whom should be valuable bullpen pieces. Sure, their 2010 payroll is going to look a lot like their 2009 payroll, but they have acquired cheap talent for the coming years and increased their flexibility going forward.
The two biggest weaknesses I see with this plan are as follows:
1. Austin Jackson is not MLB ready.
I'm a big AJax fan. I've followed his career since the Yankees drafted him in 2005. I was happy to see him sign and break a commitment to play hoops at Georgia Tech. He was our premium position player prospect for many years, and I figured he would break into the bigs in September of 2010 or April 2011. He's not ready now, though. Sure, his stats aren't too too ugly. Why, look at that .300 batting average! You can't be a bad hitter and have a .300 batting average!
While that might be true generally, his .300 BA doesn't begin to tell the full story. For one, his batting average was artificially inflated by a .384 BABIP. This is insanely high. Additionally, Jackson displayed little power in his time in AAA Scranton, posting the lowest ISO of his career (.105) and putting up a SLG of .405. This meant that Jackson's OPS was .759 in AAA in 2009. Additionally, Jackson posted a Mike Cameron-esque K% of 24.4%. This is too high.
So you have a few problems, really. Jackson's AVG was inflated by an artifically high BABIP, and so he should see some regression in 2010. Secondly, Jackson isn't showing the kind of power you would like to see from your CFer. Thirdly, Jackson strikes out too much.
He may never fix his strikeout problem, but another year of seasoning in AAA might see him develop a little more power. This is what I would do with Jackson, and it's what the Yankees were planning on doing. The Tigers are planning on giving him the Opening Day CF job. I can't see the wisdom of this. CHONE projects Jackson to have a .265/.320/.387 line in 2010, and I think that's a bit generous.
2. Johnny Damon needs Yankee Stadium.
Since this is already running a bit long, I'll get to the point. Johnny Damon posted a .279/.382/.533 line in Yankee Stadium in 2009 and put up a .284/.349/.446 line everywhere else. That's a .915 OPS at home and a .795 away. For comparative purposes, Johnny Damon was Chase Utley in Yankee Stadium, and Kosuke Fukudome everywhere else.
That's just one part of the equation. Damon put up a -9.2 UZR as a LF in 2009. Now, with UZR it's wise to take at least three years of data into consideration, and in 2007 and 2008 Damon posted a 7.5 and 6.7 UZR, respectively, although he only played 32 games in LF in 2007. So, that looks to be a bit of a wash, but it has to be a concern for Tigers fans. If Damon's defense is declining, which would be a reasonable assumption given his age, how will he fare in Detroit's Comerica Park, which is far more cavernous than Yankee Stadium?
One last FA signing of note: the Tigers signed Jose Valverde to be their closer. I'm not crazy about it, but the terms of the deal ($14M/2) aren't too horrific, and Valverde should be a decent late-inning option.
The Tigers have a decent arsenal of high-quality pitching and position players in their system. There's a lot to be excited about, particularly RHP Jacob Turner, their 1st round pick in the 2009 MLB Amateur Draft. Baseball Prospectus had this to say about Turner:
With his size, stuff, and mechanics, Turner is almost a blueprint for what scouts look for in a high school arm. His fastball sits at 92-95 mph, but he touched 97-98 on several occasions this spring, and that could become more common as he matures. His slow, looping curveball features heavy break, and he already has good arm action on his changeup. He's highly poised and mature beyond his years.
Let's see. Hard-throwing RHP with a sizzling fastball, knee-buckling curve and show-me change? Who does that sound like?
Bingo. Turner will make his pro debut in 2010, probably in Low-A ball. Another name to watch in the Tigers' system is LHP Casey Crosby, who is coming back from Tommy John surgery. BP notes that Crosby can touch 97 mph consistently with his fastball, and profiles as a top-of-the-rotation starter or a power-lefty closer. I think Detroit would take either, no? Crosby will start 2010 in High-A Lakeland.
The last name to note is 2B Scott Sizemore, a hard-hitting infield prospect on the verge of hitting the big leagues in 2010. Sizemore posted a .307/.402/.535 in Double A and .308/.378/.473 in Triple A. His defense is scouted as subpar, but his bat is solid and he should hit at the major league level when the Tigers give him the opportunity.
2011 Free Agency and Salary Outlook
Via the invaluable Cot's Baseball Contracts, we see that the Tigers have 55M committed to the 2011 payroll. $32M of that will go to Cabrera and Verlander, money well-spent, and $20M of it will go to Guillen and Valverde. Money...less well-spent. Galarraga and Rayburn will also be arb-eligible for the first time in 2011, and Zumaya and Miner should see significant raises as well.
One more detail, which I found interesting, is that Porcello could theoretically become a free agent in 2011. He'll make almost $2M in 2010, and the Tigers have two club options on him for 2011 and 2012. If he seems awfully young to be hitting free agency, it's because he is. This is the downside to signing your 1st round picks to ML contracts.
If you assume that Sizemore takes the 2B job sometime in 2010, the Tigers will have Cabrera and Sizemore manning the left-side of the infield in 2011. Both the SS and 3B (Everett and Inge) will hit the FA market in 2011. The Tigers will also need a new LF, provided they don't resign Johnny Damon, and they may need a new RF if Ordonez's option doesn't vest. Gerald Laird is also a FA in 2011.
The Future of the Tigers
The Tigers are an interesting case. They have a superstar in Miguel Cabrera and some young, cheap position player talent in Sizemore and Jackson. They have a bona fide ace in Justin Verlander, an ace-in-the-making in Rick Porcello, and some injury-prone, high-upside guys like Jeremy Bonderman. While I questioned their decision to trade Granderson initially, I think Dombrowski is doing a decent job of fielding a competitive team in 2010 while increasing payroll flexibility going forward. Given where the Tigers play, and the uncertainty of gate revenue going forward, this may prove to be a very wise decision.
Wednesday, February 24, 2010
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