Joe "MVP" Mauer

Do I have much to add, in terms of accolades, to the mountain of praise that has been heaped on Joe Mauer as of late? Simply, no. Can I repeat the praise that others have heaped on Joe Mauer while adding a tidbit of my own here and there? Simply, yes. So here goes:

a) Adam Tidbit: The MVP award has only been given to a catcher 13 times in either league since it's inception in 1931. The last to receive the award in the American League was Ivan Rodriquez in 1999 (read: wtf?) and the last in the National League was Johnny Bench in 1972. (Complete List Here)

b) Mauer's Batting Average this past season, .365, was the highest by a catcher since 1936 when Babe Phelps hit .367, Mauer and Mike Piazza are the only two catchers in the past 73 years who have cleared the .350 mark for a season. (Source: ESPN, need an Insider Subsription)

c) Mauer received a $100,000 bonus for winning the MVP award. Get this though, Miguel Cabrera received a $200,000 bonus for finishing 4th, I wonder if he paid off that writer from Seattle who gave him a first place vote... (Source)

d) A favorite stat of mine and others out there is Value Over Replacement Player (VORP). This past season, Mauer's VORP was 91 runs above replacement at the Catcher position. The next closest?...Derek Jeter at 71 runs above replacement at Shortstop. Last year's AL MVP Dustin Pedroia was 60 runs above replacement. A 91 VORP is ridiculous when you actually think about what it means. (Source)

e) According to Wikipedia, Mauer has been rumored to be creating his own rap music during his free time. This is fantastic evidence for why you should always read Wikipedia with a critical eye.

One More...

f) Few articles I've read have mentioned the fact that Mauer missed a month of this past season recovering from surgery. The fact that he hit 28 HRs and had 96 RBIs is unbelievable. If he had played during that month and was at full-strength, he very well could have put together one of the greatest offensive seasons of all time with 30+ HRs, 100+ RBIs, 100+ Rs and a .360+ average (.400+ OBP).


All I have to say, as a Twins fan, is this; this team owes it's fans to re-sign Mauer. We have continued to support this team despite losing some of our favorites over the years (Hunter, Santana, etc) and even went as far as helping the team to build a brand new stadium, which they move into next year. The community and fanbase has done everything for this team, and I think the organization has finally gotten to the point where it would benefit them and us, as fans, to invest in the talents they have developed. A core of Mauer, Morneau, Kubel and Cuddyer moving forward would be the kind of product that fans in Minnesota could stay behind for awhile.

If the Twins don't re-sign Mauer, it will be awfully difficult to remain faithful to my team. I want to think that I will always be a fan of the Twins no matter what, but this is one of those times where right course of action is so clear that if the Twins front-office blows the opportunity, it will difficult to continue to trust that they know what they're doing.

Jack Morris & the 1991 Twins

What's so special, you might ask, about the above card? To most people not much, I mean, it's not worth much on the market (I paid $5 for it), Morris isn't a particularly well-known player to most baseball fans, and honestly, the autograph itself is a bit washed out looking. But for me, even though the card depicts Morris in a Tigers uniform, the card holds some sentimental value. Afterall, for one year in 1991, Jack Morris was a capital-H Hero in Minnesota, the last year that my beloved Twins won the World Series.

In the months before the '91 season, Morris signed a one-year deal with the Twins. Morris had been the winningest pitcher in the decade of the 1980's with 162 wins and had won one World Series with the Tigers and, ironically enough, lost an ALCS match-up with the Minnesota Twins in the 1987 post-season.

The Twins season was a good one for Morris, he went 18-12 with a 3.43 ERA in 246+ innings. That season, the World Series ended up being Twins v. Braves and it came down to Game 7, one night after Kirby Puckett's miraculous home-run that won Game 6. The match-up was slated to be John Smoltz v. Jack Morris. Throughout Morris' entire career, he had been known as a big-game pitcher, but this was probably the biggest start of his career. Well boy did Morris deliver. He pitched 10 innings of shutout baseball and the Twins won the game and the Series in the bottom of the 10th inning when Gene Larkin singled in Dan Gladden. Morris was named the MVP of the series and many baseball historians and writers still consider that World Series to be one of the greatest of all-time.

After the '91 season, Morris decided not to resign with his home-town Twins, but rather to sign with the Blue Jays who, quite spectacularly, won the World Series in 1992. Morris finished his career with 254 wins and 3 World Series rings but has not seemed to be able to gather the support necessary to get into the Hall of Fame despite the fact that there are many out there who support his induction.

So yes, this card, though not particularly special to most people, is special in terms of my collection because it is an instant reminder of the last moment of true greatness for the Twins.

Well, this is surprising.

Via MLBTR, the Yankees are letting teams know that Swish is available.

2009 World Series Time Lapse

World Series Time-Lapse by Robert Caplin from Robert Caplin on Vimeo.

h/t riveraveblues.com

Way cool.

Nick Swisher: Counterpoint

AK's dislike of Nick Swisher is well-known and well-documented. He even admits that its largely baseless. But in this piece, he makes some claims about Nick Swisher that I would like a brief moment to refute.

AK's piece essentially claims the following:

(1) Swisher is a tool
(2) Swisher talks like an idiot
(3) Swisher is bad at baseball (as evidenced by a low batting average and propensity to strike out).

As I've argued before, I think Nick Swisher is a decent ball player. I'll start with some value metrics, courtesy of Fangraphs.

Since his full-season debut in 2005, Swisher has accrued 13.5 Wins Above Replacement, a performance worth approximately $54.4M (using Fangraph's Win-to-Dollar conversion ratios). Here is the year-by-year breakdown, with value in parentheses.

2005 - 2.2 ($7.5M)
2006 - 3.1 ($11.6M)
2007 - 3.6 ($14.7M)
2008 - 1.0 ($4.6M)
2009 - 3.5 ($15.9M)



Swisher is currently signed to a 5 year, $26.75M contract, structured as follows:

2007 - $0.7M
2008 - $3.5M
2009 - $5.3M
2010 - $6.75M
2011 - $9M

As you can see, Swisher has clearly been worth more than the value of his contract so far. From 2007 to 2009, his salary has totaled $9.5M, and Fangraphs estimates that the value of his performance has been worth $35.92M. Not too shabby.

This brings me to my central point, which is that Swisher is a very valuable player despite his low batting average and propensity to strike out.

In 2009, Swisher's tripleslash was .249/.371/.498, an OPS of .869, which is slightly below Andre Ethier and Derek Jeter, and slightly higher than Michael Cuddyer, Victor Martinez and Nelson Cruz. He also hit 29 home runs and knocked in 84 RBI. When you combine this with a UZR that has typically ranged from 3.0 to -2.1, you have yourself a fairly valuable right fielder, and a tremendous #8 hitter on the Yankees.

I'm not saying that Swisher will ever be in the Hall of Fame, or that he should ever be considered as such. But his low batting average masks the fact that he gets on-base at a fantastic clip and hits for power.

Both CHONE and Bill James project that Swisher's 2010 performance will mirror his 2009 performance:

James - 26 HR, 85 RBI, .247/.365/.467 (.832 OPS)
CHONE - 27 HR, 80 RBI, .248/.367/.467 (.834 OPS)

I'll take that all day, thank you. Swisher is an undervalued, and underappreciated player. Williams' failure to comprehend BABIP, and thus failure to understand that Swisher was unlucky and due for a bounceback in 2009, was a boon for the Yankees. I want to thank him one more time for trading him to us. How's Wilson Betemit working out for you?

Oh yeah.

Swisher FTW.

Championship Glow

It's still sweet.

It's hard to put it into words now, what this title means. It's hard to close the door on 2009. 2009 still seems alive and active and ongoing. We are the champions. "Are" is an active verb. We continue to be the champions, and I feel it every day.



I don't want the offeseason to begin. My interest in the Hot Stove, one of my favorite parts of the baseball calendar, is muted. I have no offseason nerves, no desperation, no anger, no angst. The Yankees are World Series Champions, and there is nothing that will change that until next October when, hopefully, we do this all again.

It was a great year.

To win the World Series, it feels like everything has to go right. Everything has to click. You can have a great team and lose 3-1 in the ALDS if your bats go cold or if your ace has an off-night or if your closer screws up and you lose home field. I know it seems trite, but its true. Your margin of error is so slim, and you have to replicate your good performance and good luck three separate times. It was excruciating, and it was awesome. It seems like a blur.

My favorite moment of the playoffs has to be ARod's home run off Joe Nathan in the top of the ninth, captured here:


And here:



My favorite part of the second video is the 0:13-0:14 span. The crowd goes from chanting and clapping to silent, as Nathan releases the ball, to engulfed in complete and utter mayhem.

"OHMYGODOHMYGODOHMYGOD GET OUT! GET OUT! OH MY GOD!"

The redemption of Alex Rodriguez.



I'd be remiss not to include this wonderful moment with Mark Teixeira:





In other replays, you can see him screaming at the top of his lungs as he rounded second base.

There is too much to talk about, too much to remember, too much to put into words. But it's all in my brain, and it's never going away.




I didn't know if we could make it. But we did. And it was awesome. The Yankees won the World Series.

Baseball is a long way away now. A long, cold winter looms. And for once, I'm OK with that.

Douchebag of the Day: Nick Swisher

Is there a bigger Tool in Major-League Baseball? Just look at this: here, here, and here. The guy can't seem to decide if he wants to look like the monkey-men from the Geico commercials, A.J. Pierzynski, or a 15-year-old kid.

Oh, and have you ever heard this guy speak? I'll save you the trouble, here's a typical interview with Swisher: "Hey everyone, come see how good I look, come see how awesome I am." To display his brain-power, Swished dropped this gem on an unsuspecting reporter back in his days with Oakland. He said, "Everyone knows an ant, can't, move a rubber tree plant." Don't think about that quote, move on to the next sentence because if you think about it, your brain might literally explode.

Like most of the players I hate, my hatred of Swisher is essentially baseless. A big part of it lies in the fact that he spent a year with the White Sox and I had to listen to his stupid, narcissistic pre-game interviews. Another part of it is that he pretends that he's good at baseball. Look at his career hitting line:

.245 Batting Average
639 Hits
665 Strikeouts (yes, he has struck out more times than he's gotten a hit)
133HRs
437 Rs
406 RBIs
7SBs out of 15 attempts
.818 OPS
Career Postseason Batting Average of .155 in 71 ABs.

**Quick sidenote: Tony Gwynn had 3 times as many plate appearances in his career as Swisher has so far, and he only struck out a total of 439 times.

Basically, Swisher is a mediocre version of Adam Dunn, a guy who has some pop in his bat and that's about it. Swisher is a decent fielder with a career .982 fielding percentage, but seriously, the .245 career average is brutal. How do you stay in the lineup when you get a hit less than 25% of the time and strikeout as much as he has?? I would understand his "look at me" personality if he was a good player, but in reality, he's not. He's had his moments of greatest, most of them coming this past year with the Yankees, but I just don't like the guy.

Stay tuned for more articles in the future. Once (sic) recovers from his championship bender, he's promised a bevy of hard-hitting content.

The Yankee Championship: 2 Conclusions

A hearty congratulations to the Yankees, to my partner in crime on this blog, (sic), and to Major League Baseball on what was another fantastic season. It all culminated last night with the Yankees winning it all, but I've got a few thoughts from common-man baseball fan.

First off, Matsui for MVP? Really. The guy played 3 games (half) of the series. Sure his monster game last night was a big part of helping the Yankees clinch, but what about the other 3 games they had to win to get to Game 6? What about A-Rod's monster post-season (finally), what about Rivera's dominance when it mattered the most? What about Damon's double-steal in Game 4 that essentially turned the tide of the entire series? What about CC's two dominant games? Hell, what about Cliff Lee's post-season performance and WS performance? Lee had a legitimate shot to become only the 2nd player on a losing WS team to win the WS MVP.

Anyway, that's really not the point of this post. The point is that based on last night and the last 15 years of baseball, I have two conclusions.

1) New York has more religious people than any other city in America.

If God does care about sports, then the Yankees have more people begging God for victory than any other team does. 27 Championships?!? I just want one! The Cubs, wow, if God cares about sports then he must be a White Sox fan....,or a Yankees fan...hmm.

or

2) God doesn't care about sports.

5 out of the last 10 World Series have been won by the team with the highest payroll in baseball (the Yankees) or the 2nd highest payroll (the RedSox). Of the past 10 winners, the Marlins (25th highest) were the only team to win the WS that wasn't in the top half of the payroll list. If it's true that God doesn't care about sports, a) the Twins don't stand a chance (22nd highest payroll) and b) you would expect the teams with the highest payrolls to win most of the time, which seems to be the case.
I'm not arguing that the Yankees bought their championship, because aside from the pieces they've added via free agency, they've also brought up plenty of home-grown talent like Joba, Cano, Jeter, etc. However, the payroll gap is real and it does make a difference.

I always love seeing the season come to an end, no matter who wins. It's the longest season of any of the major sports and a lot of times you can see the sheer relief in the faces of the players that it's finally over. I'm really happy for A-Rod, Teixeira, and CC on getting their first rings. I was thinking that Damon has to be the first player to win a WS Ring with both the Yankees and Red Sox in quite some time (if ever). Anyway, this blog will be cooking in the coming months with Hot Stove talk so stay tuned!

Just win

Just win baby.

On the precipice now, one win away from WS title #27, its hard to describe how I feel. It feels so unlikely now. It was seven months ago that I first saw those AP pictures of pitchers and catchers stretching on the greenest grass in Florida. It was beautiful. Winter was over. Baseball was back.

And I'm looking back on the year now, and I remember myself standing in Times Square in March thinking about our prospects for the season and I remember how full of hope I was that we could do it. And it was a long year. I've followed the team more closely than I've ever followed it before. Too much, even. I can tell you all the permutations of our roster, the trades we've made and didn't make, I can name 30 or 40 of our prospects, and I can tell you our catcher in Low A Tampa. I can tell you which pitching prospects had TJ and which had breakout years and which were disappointments. I can tell you about the Coming of Sweet, Sweet Jesus Montero and the year from hell from Andrew Brackman. I can tell you about every walkoff we've had. I can tell you about the quality of the sod in our AAA affiliate. And I can tell you about all our wins. I can tell you about the walkoff homer by Arod that my new bride and I witnessed after 14.5 innings of scoreless baseball against the Red Sox on a hot summer evening, and the walkoff my dad and I witnessed against the White Sox in the cold rain in September.

It was a long year.

And then the playoffs come, and the intensity of the regular season, the anticipation, the nerves, everything just gets amped up, like you were listening to your iPod and someone pumped the volume while you weren't looking. And now I'm nervous all day every day. I count down the hours to each game. And there are so many off-days that I think I'm going to run through a wall. And then our games get rained out. It's cold, its wet, and we're winning. And I'm staying up late every game night, and my health is suffering, and this is, well, this is seriously awesome. And I want it to be over, and I want it to go on forever.

Just win baby.

It feels like its been forever since they won the World Series. Truth be told, I dont remember, really really remember what it feels like. I'm sorry, Twins fans. I know you've suffered longer. I can't help it, though. I want this so bad. I want the bedlam in the Bronx. I want to skip work and go to the parade down the Canyon of Heroes. I want 27 in 09. I want to stay up all night and celebrate. Please.

Just win, baby. Just win.

Future Superstars: Aroldis Chapman

We've done a few of these features now, where we (well, mostly (sic) up until now) feature an up-and-coming prospect to keep your eyes out for. Feliz brought the goods after being featured on this blog, Wieters struggled a bit in his first go around with the Orioles, and Strasburg is expected to dazzle next year with Washington. These guys are generally the cream of the crop when it comes to prospects and you can read about them here before they bust out in the Major Leagues.

Aroldis Chapman is one of those guys who is aways down the line, but who has absolutely electric stuff. This 21-year-old lefty has 'stuff' that has been compared to Strasburg, and sports a fast-ball that has been clocked as high as 102mph. He recently defected from Cuba and is currently living in Andorra. If you have a chance, read about his defection here, pretty cool story.

Chapman has been granted free-agent status by MLB, and as recently as last week was visiting with the Boston Red Sox. As many as 10 teams are thought to be interested in Chapman including the Yankees, Mariners and Tigers. According to SI, Chapman is in line to receive more than Jose Contreras was given by the Yankees back in 2002 ($32M) but probably less than Dice-K. Meanwhile, ESPN's Jorge Arangure thinks that Chapman may be looking for a $30-$60M contract.

Chapman is, by no means, a finished product. He's 21, he still has a lot to learn about pitching and that couldn't be illustrated better than by looking at his stats. Last year, pitching for the National Series team in Cuba, he had a 4.03 ERA in 118+ innings (stats found here) At the WBC last year, he posted a 5.68 ERA in 6+ innings, and that's probably the best reflection to-date of how he would do against an MLB line-up. He will probably need a couple of seasons in the minors, but think about facing a lefty who can throw 102mph...wow.

Future HOFer? Bobby Abreu

I've written other articles on this blog about people who I think might have hall-of-fame potential, but who are often left out of the conversation. Bobby Abreu is one of those players who has put together solid-season after solid-season and who, in a few years, could have a statistical resume that merits Hall-of-Fame consideration. Let's take a look:

14 Major-League Seasons
1,951 Games
Career .299 Batting Average
2,111 Career Hits
1,270 Career Runs
1,187 Career RBI
256 HRs
348 SBs
Career .404 On-Base-Percentage
Career .896 OPS
2-time All-Star
Gold-Glove Winner (RF)

Those numbers leave him a little short, but he is 35 years old right now and just finished one of the better seasons of his career. He is rarely injured (since 1998, he has played 150 or more games in every season) and is about as steady of a performer as there is. Let's say, for the sake of argument, that Abreu plays another 3 seasons, which sounds reasonable. That would put him at 38 and give him 17 total MLB season, a very solid career. Using his career averages, that would leave him with the following stat line in 3 years.

~2,700 Career Hits
~1,600 Career Runs
~1,500 Career RBI
~320 Career HRs
~440 SBs

That's a very solid and borderline HOF competitive resume for a MLB player. With 3,000 hits and a .300 career average, Abreu would be a lock. With the way that he takes care of himself, it's not at all unreasonable to think he could play until he's 40 in which case he would challenge 3,000 hits. Baseball reference compares his stat line to the likes of George Brett, who is a HOFer. Time will tell, but if Abreu continues his high degree of consistency and stays healthy, he could very well play himself into the Hall of Fame.

UPDATE 11/5/2009:
Bobby Abreu re-signed with the Angels today for a reported $2M, 2-year deal.

Thoughts in McGwire's Return

I was a HUGE fan of McGwire growing up. I collected the guy's baseball cards, I followed his box score everyday, I remember watching the Cardinals games when he was close to breaking Maris' home-run record, to me he was what made the game fun to watch again (after the strike). When him and Sosa and Palmeiro were testifying and the question came to him, I was hoping that he would say, "yes I did it" or "I didn't do it" but he said neither...he didn't say anything.

After that, McGwire pretty much fell off the map. He all but vanished as far as public appearances went. And now, out of nowhere, he resurfaces after a few years completely out of the spotlight. And now, he may finally have to face (and answer) the question that us fans have wanted to know all along. Now, I think it's fairly obvious what the answer is, but that's not the point, the point is getting to hear it from him.

To me, McGwire is an anomaly when it comes to the steroids issue. The dude had legit power from the very beginning of his career, as a rookie, he hit 49 HRs which was an MLB record for HRs by a rookie. Over his first 6 seasons, he hit 217 HRs and made the all-star team every one of those 6 seasons. He was a young, scrawny phenom and looked poised to have a long, productive career. Then in 1993 he was hurt most of the season and only played in 74 games between the '93 and '94 seasons. When the strike hit in 1995, he had 39 HRs through 104 games and looked to be fully back. Physically he was becoming bigger as well. The 1996 season started a HR binge that lasted for the next 4 years, the likes of which baseball has never seen and probably never will see again. His totals for those 4 years were as follows:

1996: 52
1997: 58
1998: 70
1999: 65

By the time he was hitting that 70th HR in 1998, his physical stature would have dwarfed that scrawny power-hitter who burst on the scene 11 years earlier. But like I said earlier, that was the anamoly of the steriod-era. McGwire, throughout his entire career, was a power hitter. Though he might not have topped 60 HRs without the 'roids, he certainly didn't need them to hit it out of the park. I'm guessing that he started taking the steriods when he was injured during the 1993 season in order to speed the healing process. I just want him to give it to us straight. Baseball fans, for the most part, are a forgiving bunch and who of us wasn't glued to that television when he was swatting 500+ ft. homeruns in '97 and '98? He owes us all the truth. I'll leave you with a side-by-side of McGwire's first year in the league and his record-breaking year in 1998.

Thanks Dick.

Nick Punto's base-running error in a critical situation tonight killed a brewing Twins rally and basically put the game away tonight in Game 3 of the ALDS. Punto's base-running gaffe was yet another failure by the Twins team to take advantage of myriad opportunities with men in scoring position and was symptomatic of the 'hero complex' that ultimately handicapped the Twins in their ALDS series with the Yankees. It seemed like any time a Twin would get on base or a rally would get going, it would be followed by a strikeout or a pop-out, with everyone looking to be a hero instead of doing their job and getting the runs in. Twins pitchers also seemed to let their guard down when the team would get a lead, and oh yeah, the Twins had a lead in every game of the series.

Punto's error was a heart-breaker for Twins fans and I'm not gonna lie, it's irritating that every time the Twins face the Yankees in the playoffs, they inevitably end up losing. Game 163 was great, and it's enough to lessen the pain of a playoff sweep, but the Twins failures to hold leads and play their brand of baseball in this series is tough to swallow.

Good luck next year in the new digs, it was a hell of a season considering all the injuries and adversity that this team overcame.

Down goes Johan!

So, Johan Santana out for the year with minor elbow surgery. I'm no expert on pitching mechanics, but I did write this about him back in June:

Johan Santana - MEH. Elevates the elbow above the pitching shoulder, but doesn't seem to suffer injury. One of the more perplexing ones out there.

.


I have said elsewhere that I do not like to see the pitching elbow elevated above the shoulder. Santana appears to do that. I say appears because this is obviously very inexact. Here are a few samples:





Now, like I said, I'm not an expert. I'm also certain you could find plenty of images in which Santana is not elevating his elbow over his pitching shoulder. Using images is the most imprecise way of evaluating mechanics (save watching it live, perhaps). Yet, I can't help but wonder if arm injuries follow trends, and if poor pitching mechanics led to Santana's injury. I won't say that there's causality, but it is enough to make me wonder.

Feliz Makes His Debut

Well, I've been calling for a Feliz call-up, and we've been following him all year. Last night he made his appearance for Texas, pitching 2 scoreless, hitless innings and striking out the first four batters he faced, which was a Texas Rangers franchise record.

Now you're hearing some noise about Feliz and how kickass he is. Remember where you heard of him first, right here on The Bat Shatters in my cute little writeup.

Meet Neftali Feliz. You don't know him yet, but you will.

Damn right. Interestingly, my conclusion to the Feliz writeup was this:

The scouting report on Feliz is that he throws a low 80s, 10-4 slurve, and a rudimentary changeup to compliment his plus-plus fastball. 2009 will be a good time for him to develop that crucial third pitch.

Well, we don't know if he has learned his change yet, but let's talk about what he did last night. We finally have some good Pitch Fx data on his outing. Feliz threw 30 pitches - 23 fastballs, 1 slider, 1 curveball, and 4 two-seamers.

Feliz averaged 98.6 mph on his fastball and topped out at 100.5. His two seamer averaged 90.6 and topped out at 91.1 but had some crazy horizontal movement away from the LHB. His curve/slider came in at around 81. As the graph below shows, he pumped out his best heater of the night on his last pitch. Damn.



I think we're looking at a 2007-Joba for the Rangers. He's flashing serious stuff, just like he did in the 2009 Futures Game.



Welcome to The Show, Neftali.

Brackman, Montero and Feliz: Three prospects moving in different directions

We stopped doing the daily prospect roundups, for various reasons, but its time to check back in with our favorite prospects and see how they are doing midway through the year. It's quite the mixed bag, let me tell you.

Let's start with the worst: Andrew Brackman. Disaster. Complete disaster.

Brackman is 1-11 on the year, have thrown 85.2 innings over 19 starts. He has walked 64 batters and struck out 79. His ERA is, gulp, 6.72. The only good news is that Brackman is allegedly healthy and is notching innings. He is also striking out nearly a batter per inning. He is, of course, getting horrible results and walking way too many batters per innings. Via River Ave Blues a week or so ago, I saw these two tweets about Brackman's velo. It could be fatigue, or it could be something worse. The Yankees have moved him to the bullpen for the remainder of the year in order to limit his innings and prep him for 2010, which may be do-or-die time for the giant pitcher.

Sweet, sweet Jesus Montero. After starting the year in High A, Montero earned himself a call-up to Double A. He deserved it after posting a monstrous .356/.406/.583/.989 line, with 8 homers in 48 games. In Double A Montero continued his torrid pace, and has put together a line of .307/.371/.511/.882, as a 19 year old. He has 7 home runs in 36 games. In short, the dude is raking. Baseball America took note, placing him on their Untouchable List. Montero also shot up BA's Prospect Ranking list, coming in as the third best prospect in all of baseball in their Midseason Top 25, behind Jason Heyward of the Braves and Mike Stanton of the Marlins. Not too shabby. Unfortunately, Montero recently broke his finger and is out for the year. Look for him to play some Fall Ball and get some time in AAA in 2010, with a outside chance at cracking the Yankees in mid-to-late 2010.

Neftali Feliz is having himself a great year in AAA (as a 21 year old!) posting a 3.44 ERA over 73.1 IP, striking out 70 and walking only 28. I don't think it would be unreasonable to expect him to compete for a spot in the rotation next spring. The kid has a gun. The Rangers recently called him up when Kinsler went to the DL with a hammy strain, and he did not disappoint. More on this later.

Why the Peavy Trade is a Bad Trade

Living in Chicago, I've listened to the sports talk radio guys here fawn over Jake Peavy much the same way they have fawned over Jay Cutler since he was traded to the Bears. No doubt, the Peavy to the White Sox was one of the surprises of this year's action leading up to the trade deadline, but when you look at this deal through the critical lens of reality, the conclusion I am left with is that this was a bad deal for the Sox to make. Numbers don't lie so let's take a look at them.

Peavy has pitched for the San Diego Padres for his entire career up until now and, thus, has benefited greatly from pitching in PETCO Park, which everybody knows is one the most pitcher friendly parks in all of baseball. To me, the home/road splits for Jake Peavy foretell what is to come.

Career Home ERA: 2.83

Career Home WHIP: 1.092

Career Home BAA: .219

Career Home BAbip: .288

Career Road ERA: 3.84

Career Road WHIP: 1.299

Career Road BAA: .246

Career Road BAbip: .289

Another reason I don't think that Peavy will look the same with the White Sox is the fact that he will be playing against American League opponents instead of National League ones. What are his stats against the American League?

Career Interleague ERA: 3.29

Career Interleague WHIP: 1.172

Career Interleague BAA: .235

Career Interleague BAbip: .281

The above numbers show what the White Sox can expect when Peavy finally starts pitching for them, which will probably not be until 2010. Peavy's ERA is a full point higher when not pitching at PETCO, and not only that his numbers against American League opponents are substantially higher overall. No doubt he will continue to be a valuable pitcher, but the Sox are not getting the lights-out, ace-type of pitcher than merits trading away 4 pitchers, 2 of whom have major league experience.

Clayton Richard was, at the time of the trade, in the starting rotation with the Sox and had performed decently with a 4.65 ERA in 14 starts. Aaron Poreda was considered to be the Sox #1 prospect and had compiled a 2.65 ERA with 244Ks in 281 innings in the minor leagues. Dexter Carter was another highly-touted propect in the Sox system who had compiled a 2.80 ERA with 232Ks in 186.2 innings at Rookie and Low-A ball. Adam Russell, the 4th player traded to the Padres in the deal, was the "worst" out of the bunch but still had a decent minor league track record, loggin a 3.82ERA with 400Ks in 556.1 innings during 6 minor league seasons.

If I'm the Padres, this is a major win. First of all, you got rid of a guy who was going to make $56 million dollars between now and the end of the 2012 season. Second, you got Clayton Richard, who can step into the rotation immediately (and probably benefit greatly from pitching in such spacious confines). Thirdly, you got 2 of the White Sox top 10 pitching prospects, one of whom is probably going to be pitching for you as soon as next season.

Like I said, when you look at this trade through the lens of reality, you see how much of a gamble this is for the Sox, not only in what they gave up to get Peavy, but also in how much they are expecting of a guy who is a) coming from the one of the best pitchers ballparks in the National League and b) has a history of injuries. U.S. Cellular Field is one of the top 5 most hitter friendly parks in baseball AND it's the American League. My prediction, Peavy falls on his face, can't wait to watch it happen.

All stats provided by Baseball Reference.

Ugliest MLB Players Part 3: Bartolo Colon

I mean look at this guy. He has the physique of a bowling ball (see below), he's got crooked eyes, a near uni-brow and his nose takes up 3/4th of his face. He looks like Andre the Giant for god sakes. Looking at his body, it's no wonder he's pitched nearly his entire career in the American League; if he had to bat and actually run he would be, hands-down, the laughing stock of Major League Baseball. Can you imagine him swinging a bat with those tiny arms trying to avoid that gut and then, if he did manage to make contact, running down the 1st base line? It would be hilarious, in fact, they should have a feature at next year's All-Star game, "Watch Bartolo Run." They can pay him $500K to do it which would prevent him from having to try and pitch for another year in the big leagues. You could even have people bet on how long it will take him or how many times he will trip and fall on his face.

He's currently on the DL with the White Sox, he's managed to piss everyone off there, including Ozzie Guillen, and he disappeared for a week right around the time Michael Jackson died because he said, "[unable] to cope with Michael Jackson's passing." (Source) He's lazy, I get the feeling he really doesn't want to pitch, so making him a circus-show act at next year's All-Star game sounds like the perfect idea to me.

Anyway, he is the bowling ball's career pitching stats (13 seasons):

153-103 (not bad)

Career 4.10 ERA and 1.338 WHIP

2076.2 IP

1607 Ks

7 SO/9 ratio (again, not bad)

31 career CGs

2005 AL Cy Young Winner

2-time All-Star

So he's had a decent career, big deal. Most of his success is probably due in part to the fact that most Major Leaguers aren't used to having a 5'11" 250lbs. behemoth pitching to them, it scared them. Anyway, if you want this author's prediction; he won't pitch in the Major Leagues again after this season. He's been mediocre, at best, for the past few years and he needs to go.

My Halladay Trade Deadline Wish

My hope in the Roy Halladay sweepstakes is that he gets traded to...the Rangers.



It makes perfect sense from them from a baseball perspective. To wit:

(1) The AL West is weaker than it has been in recent memory. The Angels are looking good but not great; their pitching is weak and their offense is old. The Rangers are within striking distance, only 3.5 GB.
(2) Their farm system is ridiculously deep. They have all the pieces to get a deal done and have some awesome prospects left over. Neftali Feliz, Derek Holland, Justin Smoak and Elvis Andrus are all worthy of being the centerpiece of the deal.
(3) Their pitching is weak. They trot out Vincente Padilla every five days. 'Nuff said.
(4) Toronto doesn't want to deal within the division if they can help it.
(5) Toronto wants MLB ready pitching (Derek Holland, for instance), and a SS (Elvis Andrus, for instance)
(6) As I read on mlbraderumors.com, the Rangers are scheduled to see Marlon Byrd, Vincente Padilla and Hank Blalock, become free agents at the end of this year. This reduction in salary could offset Hallday's $15MM 2010 salary.
(7) Roy Halladay is Nolan Ryan's type of pitcher - the workhouse, finish-what-you-start, innings-eating fireballer.
(8) Their offense is hella good.

Go for it, Texas. As AK47's and my fantasy baseball email said today, "Flags fly forever".

Ugliest MLB Players Part 2: Aaron Harang is UGLY!

Welcome to a new series where, for a week straight, we are going to give you the bio's of the ugliest players in Major League baseball. Usually, major league baseball players are good lookin' guys, athletic, Adonis-type figures. But sometimes you guy a guy who is just downright gnarly, this series is all about those guys.

Today's segment centers around one ugly-ass mofo named Aaron Harang, starting pitcher for the Cincinnati Reds. Aaron Harang looks like a degenerate. Or at very least, he looks like he spends all his days indoors, in a basement, playing World of Warcraft in a reclining leather chair, going outside only when he needs more Pepsi and cheese doodles. Either that or a degenerate, someone who has been disfigured by the sheer force of their own wicked actions. Either way, Aaron Harang is one ugly dude, good enough for a spot on our All-Ugly Team. I hope he and Jack Wilson never get elected to the All-Star Team for the same year and get drunk in the hotel jacuzzi together and have a love child. The world cannot fit all of this ugly.

Aaron Harang also happens to be a half-decent pitcher. Check out these career numbers:

1311.2 IP
4.27 ERA
1.33 WHIP
.277 BAA
1096 K
7.53 K/9
360 BB
3.05 K/BB ratio
orangutan
Doesn't change the fact that he's ugly. I've nicknamed him the Harangutan (or at least I've never heard anyone else call him this). See the similarity?

Alderson?!

Just saw that the Pirates got Alderson from the Giants in exchange for
Freddy Sanchez. This is a major, major coup for the Bucs. I literally
gasped when I read it. What are the Giants thinking? I will post some
reactions when I see them start to come in.

Ugliest MLB Players: Jack Wilson

Welcome to a new series where, for a week straight, we are going to give you the bio's of the ugliest players in Major League baseball. Usually, major league baseball players are good lookin' guys, athletic, Adonis-type figures. But sometimes you guy a guy who is just downright gnarly, this series is all about those guys.

God must have been feeling ornery when He made Jack Wilson. His teeth are not anatomically proportionate to his face, he looks like he was punched in both eyes and his ears rival Dumbo's. However, he is one of the better players in the ugly-bunch though and he was just traded to the team of the far-Northwest (probably to get him away from the majority of the population), the Seattle Mariners. Let's take a look at his career.

In 9 full Major League seasons:

Career .269/.311/.376 hitting line

508Rs

60HRs

389RBIs

36SBs

Career .978 F%

You're not getting a masher when you bring in Jack Wilson. You're getting a stellar 2nd basemen and double-play artist with a pretty weak bat. You're also getting one of the ugliest players in the major leagues so you might want to hide your children's faces if you happen to see him walking down the street.

Lee to the Phils and other thoughts

The Indians traded Cliff Lee and Ben Francisco (defender savante) to the Phillies for Jason Knapp, Carlos Carrasco, Jason Donald and Lou Marson. They avoided including Kyle Drabek and Dominic Brown, and they obtained a very good LHP, coming off a Cy Young Season. Excellent move by the Phillies, and I like the move for the Indians too. I don't see the need to include the Francisco, but whatever. Nice move for both teams.

I'd like to point you to USS Mariner's reaction to the trade of Clement for Wilson. They do an excellent job summarizing the pieces of the deal, and their conclusion is (from a Mariners' fan's perspective):

For two guys with minimal value, the Mariners parted with five young players...Pittsburgh is the easy winner of this deal, as they get some interesting young talent and shed some salary without losing much that will hurt them. The Mariners could still salvage this by moving Wilson before Friday’s deadline for a younger SS with more long term potential, but if they stand pat with Wilson as the team’s shortstop for 2009 and maybe 2010, color me disappointed.

Click through for more advanced analysis, its worth a read.

Lee to the Phillies?

MLBTradeRumors.com is saying that Cliff Lee may be headed to the Phils. This would certainly throw a wrench in the Blue Jays' attempt to deal Halladay.

Jack Wilson to the Mariners

Jack Wilson has been traded from the Pirates to the Mariners for Jeff Clement. Before I read anyone else's reaction, I'll say that I hate this deal for the Mariners, and love it for the Pirates. Makes no sense for the Mariners - if they are out of contention, and prepared to sell assets, why trade away a prospect and take on an aging veteran with a relatively big contract?

Dumb dumb, dumb dumb, dumb Mariners. I'll post more reactions as I see them.

UPDATE (12:50 pm): Ian Snell to the Mariners as part of the deal. Makes it slightly more palatable. MLBTradeRumors.com says: "Wilson and Ian Snell for Clement, Ronny Cedeno, Aaron Pribanic, Brett Lorin and Nathan Adcock."

UPDATE (1:03 pm): Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus agrees with my assessment. Good deal for the Pirates.