Torii Hunter: Then and Now

Well, well, well...look who's back. As has been widely reported at this point, Torii Hunter has signed a 1-year, $10.5MM contract with the Twins for the 2015 season. I have mixed feelings about it. On the one hand, I think there is some good value there is he provides some solid, veteran leadership for this young up-and-coming team that the Twins have put together. On the other hand, I don't understand the front-office's obsession with former Twins players. Hunter is one of the first players they've brought back, but the coaching staff is replete with former Twins and I've heard rumors out there that the Twins are interested in potentially bringing back Liriano. Maybe my fears about the nepotism of the front-office are unfounded. Only time will tell I suppose.

I thought it would be fun to look at Torii Hunter from a 'then and now' perspective. Hunter spent 9 seasons with the Twins before leaving via free-agency to join the Angels and then after 5 seasons there he left and joined the Tigers for the past 2 seasons. When Hunter left the Twins he was a 31-year-old veteran center-fielder who had been a consistent performer on a playoff team. Now he is a 39-year-old corner-outfielder who is solidly in the twilight of his career.

Here is an average season for Hunter during his 9 seasons with the Twins:

136 games played
.271/.324/.469
75 Runs
21 HRs
79 RBI
14 SBs
Averaged about 3.0 WAR per season
7 Gold Glove Seasons

Here is an average season for Hunter during his 7 seasons away from the Twins:

143 games played
.289/.345/.460
80 Runs
20 HRs
86 RBI
10 SBs
Averaged 3.3 WAR per season
2 Gold Glove Seasons

In looking at the numbers, I'm actually impressed with Hunter's consistency at the plate. He has been a very offensively consistent player throughout his career and even over the past few seasons, he has stayed mostly healthy (has played at least 140gms each of the last five seasons) and while there has been a slight drop off in his overall power, he has been a consistent producer.

I think the one caveat we should put here is that he has played in the middle of some pretty powerhouse lineups. Last season, Hunter was primarily either a 2-hole or a 5-hole hitter with the Tigers. In 2013, Hunter was almost exclusively a 2-hole hitter. This means that for at least the last two seasons, he was hitting directly in front of one of the most feared hitters in baseball in Miguel Cabrera, who has been the 3-hole hitter for the Tigers for the past two years. Last season, the Tigers also had V-Mart hitting 4th. That is one heck of a 2-3-4 and is substantially better than what the Twins will have when Hunter dons the Twins uniform this coming season. I should also mention that Hunter had Ian Kinsler hitting in front of him in the lead-off spot...not too shabby there either. At best, the Twins will have a 2-3-4 of Hunter, Mauer and Arcia/Vargas or some combination thereof. It will be interesting to see what kind of numbers Hunter can put up in the less potent lineup that he will now be a part of.

Now let's talk about defense. When Hunter was with the Twins, he was a human highlight reel, regularly making spectacular plays in center field and occasionally robbing Barry Bonds of HRs in the All-Star game. Using defensive metrics that have been created since Hunter was a Twin, let's take a look at Hunter's defense from 2002 to 2007 (his run of 7 consecutive Gold Gloves in CF for the Twins) as compared to other qualified center fielders over that same period of time.

6,994 Innings
11.9 UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating) - ranked 9th out of 14 CF (qualified) over the same period of time
2.3 UZR/150 (UZR averaged over 150 games) - ranked 10th of 14 CF over the same period of time
13.5 RngR (Range Runs above Average) - ranked 7th of 14 CFers
-36 TZ (Total Zone in Runs above Average) - ranked 14th out of 14 CFers

To put that into perspective, here are some of Andruw Jones numbers over that same period:
8,062 Innings
119.6 UZR - ranked 1st out of 14 qualified CFers.
20.5 UZR/150 - ranked 1st out of 14
92.8 RngR - ranked 1st out of 14
98 TZ - ranked 1st out of 14

For even more comparison, here is Denard Span's numbers in center field for the 5 seasons he was with the Twins:

3,712 Innings
14.4 UZR
4.9 UZR/150
21.7 RngR
-17 TZ

Two observations. A) Hunter must have had a flair for the dramatic because his actual defensive metrics are not that spectacular, even amongst other qualified CFers playing during that same period. B) Holy crap Andruw Jones was good.

Hunter was no slouch in Center, we all know that, but his greatness there may have become a little exaggerated since his departure. Since leaving the Twins, he has also changed positions and is now primarily a Right-fielder. He hasn't been great in right field and last year, he was actually pretty atrocious from a defensive standpoint (-18.3 UZR and -12.3 dWAR). When you look at how Hunter's defense has declined over the past few seasons, it's concerning to think that he will be playing full-time right-field for a team that is already defensively challenged - and in a spacious ballpark no less.

So what's the best case scenario? For Hunter, part of his value to the Twins lies in his ability to get through to the young players and mentor them as they come up (Hicks, Arcia, Danny Santana to an extent, and Buxton). He knows the "Twins Way" and really has a chance to help the organization from that standpoint. As an actual everyday player...if Hunter performs close to what he has done over the past several seasons, he'll do just fine. Defensively I think he's going to have a hard time in right field, but here's to hoping he can at least competently hold down the role. The Twins are already log jammed at DH so hitting him in that spot is really not an option.

What the worst-case scenario? There are probably a lot of ways to go with this. He could get hurt in Spring Training and miss the entire season. That would be bad. He could decline significantly from an offense standpoint as a result of playing in a much less potent lineup and, combined with bad outfield defense, become a player with negative value. That would be bad too.

Overall, I'm happy Hunter is back. I loved him when he was a Twin the first time and he is definitely a fan favorite. Plus, all of those people still running around with Hunter jerseys can now be relevant again. His contract is throw-away money for the Twins and if he plays well, he could be a valuable trade piece at the deadline which could potentially help the Twins to continue to build their farm system. He also provides a solid veteran presence on a young team. All things considered, not a bad move for the Twins. One interesting thing to watch will be what decision the Twins make with Aaron Hicks and/or Oswaldo Arcia. Will Hicks again be given the keys to center field? Will he be relegated to the Minors in favor of playing Santana at Center?

The Case for Aaron Hicks

Before my last post, it had been since April 2013 since I had written anything about the Twins. I'm honestly in awe of you bloggers out there who have continued to write about this team despite four straight 90+ loss seasons. Not only does that take dedication, it takes a special kind of stamina to keep going despite the product on the field. My hats off to you. The last thing I wrote about was Aaron Hicks who, at the time, was at the beginning of his rookie season and who had a historically bad opening to his Major League career. I would love to say that he turned it around and is now a fixture in center field for the Twins, but we all know that's not true and, in fact, things haven't gotten much better at all. With that being said, I still think Hicks has a chance to be a decent center fielder for the Twins.

At 25, Hicks is still relatively young, and that may be the biggest thing going for him. For comparison, Carlos Gomez was 26 before he really started to put it together after being traded from the Twins to the Brewers. Torii Hunter was 23 when he played his first full season in the Big Leagues and was 25 before he really hit his stride with the Twins. Curtis Granderson was also 25 when he finally put it all together on the Major League level. Puckett was 24-years-old as a rookie with the Twins in 1984. I'm not saying that Hicks is comparable to Gomez, The Puck, Hunter or Granderson, and in fact, those comparisons are almost laughable. Rather I'm trying to make the point that 25-years-old is not too old and it's premature to say that Hicks' career is doomed. Seven years is a long time for someone to play professional baseball and not "make it" but there are other examples of players who were late bloomers.

The other thing that Hicks has that is fairly unique at the Major League level (if it can fully translate) is his ability to draw walks. Aside from his stint as a rookie in the Majors, Hicks has always had a decent eye at the plate and owns a career .377 OBP in the Minors. Even this past season, which saw Hicks play in 69 games with the Major League club, Hicks had a 36:56 K:BB ratio and an OPS of .341 (despite a .215 BA). If he could hold a batting average closer to .270-.290 and hit with a little more power (.350-.400 SLG), that would be enough offensive production to make him an every-day center-fielder.

One thing that has mysteriously disappeared from Hicks' repertoire over the past couple of seasons is his base-stealing abilities. He was never a prolific base-stealer in the Minors, but from Rookie ball up through Double-A, he had double-digit steals every season and topped out with 32 stolen bases (11 CS) in 2012. Since 2012, he has barely utilized that talent, stealing a total of 17 bases between his time in the Majors AND Minors. Some might look at the stats and see that as a good thing given that Hicks' success rate in stealing isn't great (68% between the Majors and Minors), but he's got speed and, with time, can probably be coached to pick his spots better and bring that number closer to 75%, which would be just fine. For a guy who has the potential to be on-base as much as Hicks, re-discovering his ability to steal bases would increase his value greatly.

So where has Hicks gone wrong? I listen to Gleeman and the Geek fairly regularly and many times on their show/podcast, they have talked about how its quite possible that Hicks' development was actually stunted by the Twins and their mis-handling of Hicks over the past couple of seasons. First there was the move straight from Double-A in 2012, to Twins starting center fielder coming out of Spring Training in 2013. After his disastrous first few months as a rookie, the Twins (Gardenhire) publicly questioned Hicks' effort. Last season, the Twins again publicly questioned Hicks' work ethic and on-field production before demoting him to Triple-A in June (after a DL stint). The whole situation, whether merited or not, reminds me of Kevin Slowey's situation with the Twins a few years ago. For some reason, Hicks seems to have rubbed Twins management the wrong way and they haven't responded very well.

This coming season will really tell the story of whether Hicks has a future with the Minnesota Twins or not. Buxton is still another season away from the Bigs (at least) and so for the time-being, Hicks has a spot in Center Field. In my mind, there are 3 things he needs to do to prove himself and get back on the right track:

1.) Bring his overall average and power up. Through 538 PAs in the Majors, Hicks is sporting a .201/.293/.313 triple-slash and that just isn't going to cut it. Those numbers have to closer to .270/.350/.400 to make him a decent center-fielder and probably need to be more like .275/.360/.420 to make him worth a look at a corner-outfield position. This is all much easier said than done, but at the end of the day, without better production at the plate, it won't matter what other things he does.

2.) Make it so the Twins cannot question his work ethic. In my experience, if someone's work ethic is being questioned, chances are they deserve that kind of criticism. Whether someone works hard or not is usually fairly obvious and when it comes to baseball, I imagine it's slap-you-in-the-face obvious. If I'm Hicks, I understand the situation - that this may be my last legitimate shot to be an MLB-regular - and I respond by being the first one in and the last one out. I put in the work and make it obvious that I'm committed to getting better. Even if the results don't follow, you will impress management and they won't have the grounds to question your effort publicly. I obviously don't know Hicks personally and maybe he already has an excellent work ethic, but sometimes you have to make an effort to make it obvious. You've got a new manager now and so, in a sense, you have a clean(ish) slate. Take advantage.

3.) Forget the past. I have no idea how Hicks feels about how the Twins have handled his development but I wouldn't be surprised if he felt a little slighted. Start fresh this year. Take advantage of having Paul Molitor around day-in and day-out. Channel the Hicks from the Minor Leagues who use to draw walks at a 13-14% clip. Be aggressive on the base paths. Embrace the fact that he is a ground-ball and line-drive hitter (74.5% of his batted balls last year were were either GBs or LDs) who is never going to hit for a lot of power. His potential lies in his ability to get on-base.

It's highly possible that Hicks will never become the center-fielder that the Twins once thought he could be. So far, Hicks' off-season isn't going to well from a baseball standpoint. He was released from his Venezuelan League team just a few days ago after hitting a 2-for-21 slump. I heard the rumors last week that the Twins might be interested in bringing Torii Hunter back. I would be really curious to see how having Hunter around might help Hicks. I doubt it will happen but it's an interested "what if". One thing is clear, if Hicks doesn't find a way to produce more at the plate then he likely won't stick around with the Twins much longer.

Hindsight 20/20: Aaron Hicks

It's easy to second-guess things now right? Aaron Hicks, after lighting things up during Spring Training and landing the starting center-fielder job, is now in about as deep of a funk as a player can have. After last night's game in which Hicks went 0-for-5 with 3 more Ks, there really isn't any direction he can go but up. Wanna see a bad stat line?

2 hits in 35 ABs
16 strikeouts, 2 walks
.165 OPS


To put things into perspective a little bit - Hicks has put 19 baseballs into play so far this season (7 groundballs, 10 flyballs and 2 line drives)...and he's struck out 16 times. According to FanGraphs - Hicks' contact % when he swings at pitches that are in the strike zone is 80.0% and for comparison, Drew Butera had a 89.7% contact rate on pitches in the strike zone during his Twins career (Mauer's lifetime average is 93.2%). When Hicks swings at a pitch that's outside the strike zone, his contact percentage drops to a miserable 55.6%. In over 75% of Aaron Hicks' at-bats this year, he's had a first pitch strike meaning that he's been down 0-1 in most of his at-bats so far this year (7th highest percentage in the Majors right now among qualified hitters).

I point all this out because what's been most surprising to me about Hicks' at-bats is his lack of plate discipline. This is a guy who had a 3:4 BB/K ratio in the Minors and that showed in his career .379 OBP...he has a good eye at the plate, but he's not using it. Even in spring training, Hicks only struck out 16 times in 22 games.

Another thing that baffles me is why Ron Gardenhire continues to bat Hicks at the top of the lineup. Why not drop him down to the bottom of the lineup and see if that takes a little of the pressure off of the 23-year-old rookie?? It can't be because of Hicks' speed -- because that is an asset he isn't able to use unless he starts getting on-base a little bit. Hicks leads the Major Leagues in outs-made (34) for crying out loud...giving him an extra at-bat per game isn't even what's best for the team.

I realize it's easy to say "I told you so" and "hindsight is 20/20" and all that - but really, this is an experiment the Twins should not have embarked on in the first place. Instead of letting Hicks start the year at Triple-A and continue his development, the organization decided to put Hicks in high-pressure situation where the chances of failure were high. As it stands, they've lost a year of contract control on their young center-fielder and he may end up having to go back to Triple-A anyway. I don't know how much longer the Twins coaches and front-office are going to give this kid, but my guess is that it isn't going to be long, especially after reading today that they might be kicking the tires on Julio Bourbon out of the Rangers organization. I get it that sometimes rookies struggle a bit - but there's a difference between struggling and being vastly over-matched and Aaron Hicks falls into the ladder category.